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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #7802
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,438 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Timing belt wrote: »
    It’s not that silly considering we are paying 1bn a year on HAP. 10bn spent on housing Would pay for itself in less than 10 years and lower rent for the masses.

    If there was a political party that advocated this besides SF they would walk into power.

    SF never advocated it. SF housing policy was pushed as a fully costed model that did not increase the national debt, and indeed it was celebrated by all those critical of government housing policy as the way forward.

    Again, it's a bit much to say that any party that advocated this would walk into power. No party in Ireland would advocate this, except maybe the alphabet soup loony left and they can barely agree among themselves what day of the week it is.


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    #7803
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    awec wrote: »
    It's a fairly silly notion.

    Even the Shinner's housing policy was a spend of ~2bn, and they made a song and dance of their policy being fully costed with no borrowing.

    Had they proposed any scheme that involved mass borrowing they would have been slaughtered for it. It's a bit rich to retrospectively say "sure if the will had been there we could have borrowed massively in the past and solved the housing issue". Absolutely NOBODY wanted this, it's ridiculous to pretend otherwise in hindsight.

    I am not talking about hindsight. The environment has changed with the ECB keeping gov debt yields low with mass QE. A 10 year bond with negative yields means that it is possible to build and still have the debt paid off before the end of the 10 years with savings on HAP.


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    #7804
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,438 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Timing belt wrote: »
    I am not talking about hindsight. The environment has changed with the ECB keeping gov debt yields low with mass QE. A 10 year bond with negative yields means that it is possible to build and still have the debt paid off before the end of the 10 years with savings on HAP.

    PropQueries was talking in hindsight.

    I do not think there is much appetite among the population to borrow to build houses, which is why all of the parties steer clear of such policies, including the opposition.


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    #7805
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Timing belt wrote: »
    I am not talking about hindsight. The environment has changed with the ECB keeping gov debt yields low with mass QE. A 10 year bond with negative yields means that it is possible to build and still have the debt paid off before the end of the 10 years with savings on HAP.

    What about the cost of maintenance?


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    #7806
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,853 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    awec wrote:
    I do not think there is much appetite among the population to borrow to build houses, which is why all of the parties steer clear of such policies, including the opposition.

    ....because we've been told for decades, public debt is bad, and we must always balance our budgets!


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    #7807
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    awec wrote: »
    SF never advocated it. SF housing policy was pushed as a fully costed model that did not increase the national debt, and indeed it was celebrated by all those critical of government housing policy as the way forward.

    Again, it's a bit much to say that any party that advocated this would walk into power. No party in Ireland would advocate this, except maybe the alphabet soup loony left and they can barely agree among themselves what day of the week it is.

    There is a very large cohort of people like myself that would not vote for SF that would support a change to housing policy that made sound financial sense. So I think you are wrong in your opinion of it being some lefty lone party policy


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    #7808
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    landofthetree wrote: »
    What about the cost of maintenance?

    We can issue at negative rates at the moment which means no maintenance cost and as long as the savings from HAP are used to repay the debt then it is the equivalent of being paid to do it as there would be no debt roll over at a higher rate.


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    #7809
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    awec wrote: »
    PropQueries was talking in hindsight.

    I do not think there is much appetite among the population to borrow to build houses, which is why all of the parties steer clear of such policies, including the opposition.

    Public opinion can change and it doesn’t need to be 10bn even 1bn would make a big difference to address supply and at the same time lower rents. They government don’t even need to build they could provide a floor by saying any houses not sold to public they will buy at x. It’s makes sound financial sense whilst yields are low. The tax take would shore up gov finances and at the same time stimulate the economy


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    #7810
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,853 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Timing belt wrote:
    Public opinion can change and it doesn’t need to be 10bn even 1bn would make a big difference to address supply and at the same time lower rents. They government don’t even need to build they could provide a floor by saying any houses not sold to public they will buy at x. It’s makes sound financial sense.

    Any evidence of increasing supply, reduces price?


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    #7811
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Public opinion can change and it doesn’t need to be 10bn even 1bn would make a big difference to address supply and at the same time lower rents. They government don’t even need to build they could provide a floor by saying any houses not sold to public they will buy at x. It’s makes sound financial sense.

    That's a very good point. And, it doesn't even include all the side benefits e.g. jobs etc. and all the extra economic activity it would generate and extra tax revenue that would return to the state in the form of taxes on wages etc.

    Just to put this Government's bad planning into perspective, if we had built just 6,000 additional social homes per year since 2014, we would have no or relatively small housing waiting list this time next year.


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    #7812
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Any evidence of increasing supply, reduces price?

    It doesn’t need to reduces property prices as it will stimulate the economy which in turn provides greater demand.


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    #7813
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,853 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Timing belt wrote: »
    It doesn’t need to reduces property prices as it will stimulate the economy which in turn provides greater demand.

    suppose its worked well in the past....


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    #7814
    Potatoeman
    Registered Users Posts: 4,240 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.


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    #7815
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,853 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Our property issues have virtually nothing to do with the welfare class, but more to do with the rentier classes, particularly the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), whos prime objective is to continually engage in activities that cause asset price inflation
    Potatoeman wrote: »
    They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.

    ......


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    #7816
    Taylor365
    Registered Users Posts: 2,994 ✭✭✭Taylor365


    Potatoeman wrote: »
    They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.
    And have the self esteem of a wet sandwich.
    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Our property issues have virtually nothing to do with the welfare class, but more to do with the rentier classes, particularly the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), whos prime objective is to continually engage in activities that cause asset price inflation
    It's pure policy. Drive the amateur investor out and cater to the big REITs. 1 or 2 tenants over-hold for a year, no problem to them.


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    #7817
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,853 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Taylor365 wrote: »
    And have the self esteem of a wet sandwich.

    It's pure policy. Drive the amateur investor out and cater to the big REITs. 1 or 2 tenants over-hold for a year, no problem to them.

    i think its something worse than that, our politicians believe theyre doing the right thing, its coming from dangerous advice


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    #7818
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Potatoeman wrote: »
    They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.

    Who said they are free homes I am taking about the government putting in a floor on the market to give builders assurances that the properties will sell by saying they will buy at x in the event of not selling. This would mean a lot more homes for people to buy and a reduction of rent making it easier for renters to save.


    Even if the government bought the houses and rented them it would be a better situation than paying HAP forever and a day and pushing rents higher.


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    #7819
    Brianmwalker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 119 ✭✭Brianmwalker


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Who said they are free homes I am taking about the government putting in a floor on the market to give builders assurances that the properties will sell by saying they will buy at x in the event of not selling. This would mean a lot more homes for people to buy and a reduction of rent making it easier for renters to save.


    Even if the government bought the houses and rented them it would be a better situation than paying HAP forever and a day and pushing rents higher.

    They'd set the floor close to the ceiling lol


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    #7820
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Potatoeman wrote: »
    They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.

    In 2019, the total number of long-term unemployed people in Ireland stood at c. 50,000 and many of these would already live in social housing. There's c. 70,000 on the social housing waiting list so many on the social housing waiting list are already working.

    In 2019, unemployment benefits only accounts for 10% - 15% of the total welfare budget. The rest is spent on pensions, children's allowance, working family payments etc. i.e. a significant percentage of the 'welfare' budget is welfare payments for the so-called middle classes.

    Two weeks ago, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Simon Coveney, said "there could be as many people in his department on the Working Family Payment as in the whole of the Defence Forces."

    Link here to Simon Coveney article: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/coveney-many-civil-servants-in-my-department-are-on-family-income-top-up-like-members-of-defence-forces-39601376.html


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    #7821
    enricoh
    Registered Users Posts: 4,841 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Disability allowance is where it's at, the dole is for amateurs! No more mickey mouse courses or schemes once you get on the disability!

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40019072.html%3ftype=amp
    The number of people who receive the allowance has grown by nearly 10% over the past two years - from just under 134,000 in 2017, to nearly 141,000 in 2018, to almost 147,000 last year.


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    #7822
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭combat14


    enricoh wrote: »
    Disability allowance is where it's at, the dole is for amateurs! No more mickey mouse courses or schemes once you get on the disability!

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40019072.html%3ftype=amp
    The number of people who receive the allowance has grown by nearly 10% over the past two years - from just under 134,000 in 2017, to nearly 141,000 in 2018, to almost 147,000 last year.

    wow that's a big increase - there are so many shades of disability with a bit of imagination, technology and retraining surely a good portion of this number could eventually productively reenter the work force .....

    probably be fleeced for even suggesting that in modern PC ireland


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    #7823
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    combat14 wrote: »
    wow that's a big increase - there are so many shades of disability with a bit of imagination, technology and retraining surely a good portion of this number could eventually productively reenter the work force .....

    probably be fleeced for even suggesting that in modern PC ireland

    My sister was/is a non-functioning alcoholic. I believe she qualified for disability allowance at 1 stage...... mad stuff altogether.
    Anyway, relevance to property is that social housing, entitlement to it etc needs to be reformed on top of government providing more units. And different types depending on ability to pay rent etc....


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    #7824
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,843 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Our property issues have virtually nothing to do with the welfare class, but more to do with the rentier classes, particularly the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), whos prime objective is to continually engage in activities that cause asset price inflation

    Partially agree, of course it isnt about just the welfare class. But it is totally immoral, free luxury property for some, like the dundrum apartments and idiot mid income earner next door to him, pays a fortune and works for the priviledge!

    We seemingly cant afford anything here according to the government, health service **** (mostly mismanagement) prison spaces, class sizes a joke, infrastucture ****. But we are so wealthy, that we can give away extremely expensive property, to a fairly select few, for nothing!

    there is no balance here, they should not be getting that property for the pittance they get it for, while others are absolutely shafted and living a poorer quality of life and paying for it. You could address this massive void, by putting in place, appropriate rents and a council tax in the uk, will happen when pigs fly here though....


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    #7825
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,784 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    combat14 wrote: »
    wow that's a big increase - there are so many shades of disability with a bit of imagination, technology and retraining surely a good portion of this number could eventually productively reenter the work force .....

    probably be fleeced for even suggesting that in modern PC ireland

    Only if the work place changed considerably and the normal idea of employer-employee relations was thrown out the window.

    I have one autistic and one high functioning asperger in my house, both have high ranking tertiary degrees with no prospect of employment that I can see. Only one of them receives any state benefit and it's not terribly much.


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    #7826
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/social-housing-britain-affordability

    Easy to see comparisons with the Irish Market here.
    It’s hard to think of an idea that better sums up the thrust of housing policy in recent decades: provide a bit of help to get a small group of people just over the line, but in a way that inflates prices for everyone else.
    ... it is hard to imagine politicians ever really embracing stagnating or falling real house prices. Too many homeowners regard the gains of rising prices as the deserved outcome of good decisions, rather than the good-luck windfall it really is. Economic growth in the UK is too reliant on debt-fuelled consumer spending guaranteed by the housing bubble: even as we bemoan rising prices, we are collectively addicted to them. So politicians continue to promise bits of help here and there for first-time buyers which make it look as though they’re doing something, even as it pushes prices up even further.
    we have only ever built enough houses when the state has been a significant part of the equation. Private developers will never build enough; in an uncompetitive market, it’s not in their interests to do so. Safe, comfortable and secure homes are like healthcare, schools and the railways: it takes state action to ensure everyone can live in one.


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    #7827
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Another possible 'advertorial' (but not labeled as such) in the Irish Times. This time from QRE Real Estate Advisors who regard the current fall in demand for office space in Dublin as a "blip" and a "temporary inconvenience" and where he says:

    "Like myself, most vendors believe the current dip will prove itself to be a temporary inconvenience, which will be reversed with the movement along the upward slope of the much anticipated “V curve” in 2021".

    I don't agree with his viewpoints but it's always worth reading opinions from the other side of the debate.

    Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/vendors-adopting-wait-and-see-approach-in-sub-20m-market-1.4376533


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    #7828
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,843 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    In relation to the above post, V curve in 2021? Lol! If his prediction was for 23 or 24 you could say plausible, 21? Laughable imo...


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    #7829
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    At best it will be a U might even be a w. But a V I think was are already passed that


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    #7830
    HotDudeLife
    Closed Accounts Posts: 157 ✭✭HotDudeLife


    handlemaster wrote: »
    At best it will be a U might even be a w. But a V I think was are already passed that


    More like an underscore, it will take half a decade for the economy to recover as we are nowhere near the worst of it yet, eye of the storm.


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    #7831
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Interesting opinion piece on retail rents in the Irish Independent titled "The pandemic has struck just as downwards rent reviews fall due".

    "The big question is if your property’s rent review date falls during a period of enforced closure, what is its rental value?"

    "Conversely, tenants, and particularly in retailing, are arguing that if their review falls due during a lockdown, the rental value should be zero. Now, that’s not realistic as the tenant is in possession and will have the ability to re-open but it’s a good starting point in negotiations and rental values in the era of a pandemic will hardly be as high as before the restrictions."

    His statement that tenants are arguing that rental values should be zero is obviously half in jest but an interesting opinion all the same.

    Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/the-pandemic-has-struck-just-as-downwards-rent-reviews-fall-due-39653211.html


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