100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

Gregk961 · 13-12-2014 6:08pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Fecking beauties, those were silly prices.. Won like the odds on shots they should have been:D

Well picked Aidan never really had a sweat with either

longshotvalue · 20-12-2014 3:40pm

Ascot 3:30

I like the Actival here as I was impressed with him last year up to this last disappointing run and I think there could be a lot more in the tank, but he is hard to justify as joinf Fav with so little experience in this race.

Of the others I think the value lies with Pine Creek, he has been super consistent in big handicaps , and will be very difficult to kick out of the 5 here at a decent looking 16/1 with Bet365 and 5 places. He is on better terms with Clondaw Warrior here for his season reappearance when a good 5th in the Greatwood, and won’t need a lot of improvement to get involved here, where he has a very good record.

1 Point EW 16/1 Bet365 5 places

longshotvalue · 20-12-2014 4:39pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot 3:30

I like the Actival here as I was impressed with him last year up to this last disappointing run and I think there could be a lot more in the tank, but he is hard to justify as joinf Fav with so little experience in this race.

Of the others I think the value lies with Pine Creek, he has been super consistent in big handicaps , and will be very difficult to kick out of the 5 here at a decent looking 16/1 with Bet365 and 5 places. He is on better terms with Clondaw Warrior here for his season reappearance when a good 5th in the Greatwood, and won’t need a lot of improvement to get involved here, where he has a very good record.

1 Point EW 16/1 Bet365 5 places

Feck sake another 10 yards was all that was needed.... Running bad on big price seconds all year...:mad:

longshotvalue · 25-12-2014 12:49am

King George

I’ve known I’m backing Cue Card in this since last year and to say I’m raging that I didn’t put up the 10/1 earlier this week is an understatement. Its turned him from a max bet to a standard 2 pt bet, and its pure laziness on my part. I don’t subscribe to the general consensus that he won’t stay or didn’t stay last year. He looked to have stopped before the second last for some reason and then stayed on well enough after that. He is clear 2nd Favourite here in my mind and I have him as a 7/2 shot, behind the very sold looking favourite. Champagne Fever has generally been disappointing outside of the Cheltenham festival and I just don’t know how he can be as short as he is here, that isn’t to say he won’t win but there isn’t a lot of evidence to put him in this class.

2 Points win 7/1 SportingBet

longshotvalue · 25-12-2014 1:09am

Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante Post

Bobs Worth looked a world beater last year but didn’t run up to expectations this year, more than likely the ground played a part. I just don’t fancy anything else in the race at the moment and if he can recover his best form (which he will be given a great chance to do with very little runs this year), i think he will win. Taking that into consideration, the current best price of 11/1 looks huge and I’d love to be holding that docket when he lines up in March.

2 Points win 11/1 Various

longshotvalue · 26-12-2014 9:17pm

Limerick 1:35

Maybe I’m blind or something but I think the current 20/1 about Letter of Credit is vastly overpriced here. He has course form, has been running in very good races, is on what looks a favourable mark and had plenty of form on heavy ground. He should be about 8/1 Get on at that price before somebody wakes up..

2 Points EW 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 26-12-2014 10:53pm

Leopardstown 2:55

Daring Article has a couple of very good runs in big handicaps around here and has looked like he needs this step up in trip. Although he has done nothing this year yet he has surly been prepared with this in mind and has first time blinkers here. I suppose I could have hoped for a bit bigger than 25/1 but that just doesn’t happen in Irish handicaps and with 5 places paying and his good record around here he still looks a bit of value.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Various

sdoc13 · 26-12-2014 11:10pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Limerick 1:35

Maybe I’m blind or something but I think the current 20/1 about Letter of Credit is vastly overpriced here. He has course form, has been running in very good races, is on what looks a favourable mark and had plenty of form on heavy ground. He should be about 8/1 Get on at that price before somebody wakes up..

2 Points EW 20/1 Generally

The pie chart on oddschecker is hilarious. This accounts for 30 percent of all bets and is still 20s. Price will plummet me thinks

longshotvalue · 27-12-2014 10:49am

Welsh National 2:35

Summery Justice’s current price of 40/1 looks a bit too big here, given he has performed well of this mark before and should improve for him decent seasonal opener 2 weeks ago. The ground or trip shouldn’t be a problem, and he is relatively lightly raced for a 10 yo and may still have a bit of improvement in him. He doesn’t look the pick of the stable which is why he is such a big price but I wouldn’t rule him out because of that.

1 Point EW 40/1 Bet365 / 888

longshotvalue · 27-12-2014 11:01am

Leopardstown 1:20

If Twinlight can recover the form of his very good seasonal opener he can easily outrun his price of 25/1 here. In fact I think he may well be the best of Willie’s here over 2 miles. He is a big price after a poor run last time after a few mistakes, but on his day is well capable of getting involved here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Paddy Power

sdoc13 · 27-12-2014 2:26pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 1:20

If Twinlight can recover the form of his very good seasonal opener he can easily outrun his price of 25/1 here. In fact I think he may well be the best of Willie’s here over 2 miles. He is a big price after a poor run last time after a few mistakes, but on his day is well capable of getting involved here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Paddy Power

Super Aidan. Bullin that i didnt follow. Great stuff. hope you bang in a few more today.

katkev · 27-12-2014 2:27pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 1:20

If Twinlight can recover the form of his very good seasonal opener he can easily outrun his price of 25/1 here. In fact I think he may well be the best of Willie’s here over 2 miles. He is a big price after a poor run last time after a few mistakes, but on his day is well capable of getting involved here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Paddy Power

Great tip,thanks for that.

StopWatch · 27-12-2014 2:39pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 1:20

If Twinlight can recover the form of his very good seasonal opener he can easily outrun his price of 25/1 here. In fact I think he may well be the best of Willie’s here over 2 miles. He is a big price after a poor run last time after a few mistakes, but on his day is well capable of getting involved here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Paddy Power

You, kind Sir, have made my Christmas.

longshotvalue · 28-12-2014 11:18am

Leopardstown 12:50

I thought that Kashline would be near favourite here after some very decent Chase performances of a higher mark than this hurdles mark. He was a decent hurdler as well and looks well in here carrying only 9:13 taking into account the 5lbs claimer on today. He is also blinkered first time. This could be a tough staying race and should suit him. 14/1 is a few points more than I expected.

1 Point win 14/1 Various

longshotvalue · 28-12-2014 11:28am

Leopardstown 2:55

I have a huge amount of confidence in Bobs Worth for the Gold cup and strangely not as much here, but now that the 4/1 is available again it’s tempting. This race will suit him if he is near 100% he will be very hard to beat . I just can’t leave the price on First Lieutenant go at the huge price of 16/1 without a bet. He was poor enough in Down Royal but had been poor last year there before being pipped by Bobs Worth in this race afterwards and 16/1 is an insult.

2 Points win 4/1 Bobs Worth Will Hill/888

1 Points EW First Lieutenant 16/1

longshotvalue · 28-12-2014 11:33am

1:50 Leopardstown

This race is full of question marks and id be banging my head against the wall if I didn’t have a small bet on Briar Hill at 8/1. That is just too big and I’m not at all sure he needs to be at his best to win this. That price is easily worth the risk and the fact that he is friendless in the market hasn’t stopped me in the past and wont now.

1 Point win 8/1 Paddy Power

wreckless if true · 28-12-2014 12:52pm

aidankkk wrote: »

1:50 Leopardstown

This race is full of question marks and id be banging my head against the wall if I didn’t have a small bet on Briar Hill at 8/1. That is just too big and I’m not at all sure he needs to be at his best to win this. That price is easily worth the risk and the fact that he is friendless in the market hasn’t stopped me in the past and wont now.

1 Point win 8/1 Paddy Power

Il be having a small punt on him to win also. all the talk last year was that briar hill was the best of the novices , even better than faugheen and vatour, granted he fell at chelthenham fair enough you cant account for that, put i am mystified as to how he is gone so low in peoples estimations. I can just see willie mullins being interviewed after the race saying " yeah we werent expecting that now hes been doing nothing to suggest he had it lately in training" after he canters home 20 lenghts of everyone else. I wouldnt be suprised

longshotvalue · 31-12-2014 7:24pm

Cheltenham 12:45

Saint Are looks to be in great form at the moment judging by this 2 runs this year and given his good 3rd in a stronger race here earlier this year of 1lb higher he really should be close here. He followed that up with another 3rd in the Becher Chase and a repeat of either of those runs in this weaker race should be enough. I had thought that anything above 7/1 would be of interest here so the current 9/1 with bet365 is plenty to have a bet.

2 Points win 9/1 Bet365

longshotvalue · 31-12-2014 7:29pm

Cheltenham 3:05

I was sure Rock on Ruby would start favourite for this race, and hopefully the rains don’t arrive but even though he has weight to give to a couple of promising horses he looks great value at 3/1 over his ideal trip and course. Vaniteux will have to be very good to beat him here over this trip.

2 Points win 3/1 Coral Will Hill

longshotvalue · 31-12-2014 7:40pm

Cheltenham 1:55

Rolling Aces has threatened to win one of these good handicaps a few times but I think this may be his best opportunity. He is proven of this mark after an eye-opening finish in the Grand Sefton and the 5lbs claimer on along with the drop of 1lb should really put him right in it here. I’d be happy with the 8/1 on offer as there are a couple at the front of the market I don’t fancy at all.

2 Points win 8/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 31-12-2014 7:47pm

2:20 Cheltenham

Bothy has understandably taken a few races to get going after a 2 year break but I think there was a sign or 2 last time that his time might not be that far away, along with the fact the he is off an increasingly attractive mark.. This is a big step up in trip but any horse that can get 2nd in the Coral Cup can stay 3 miles here in a normal race. 20/1 with paddy power is just too big to ignore and I wouldn’t be at all surprises if he went of shorter than there in this race.

1 Point EW 20/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue · 31-12-2014 8:09pm

2:10 Musselburgh

Ruacana has been a frustrating horse more than a few times since his good 4yo form, but he ran well at this time last year of a higher mark in a similar but stronger race and did look like he was ready for a step up in form on the basis of a nice first run this season. He has a decent 7lbs claimer on tomorrow and it leaves him with a very nice racing weight. The current generally available 8/1 looks a decent bet.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 01-01-2015 3:26pm

aidankkk wrote: »

2:10 Musselburgh

Ruacana has been a frustrating horse more than a few times since his good 4yo form, but he ran well at this time last year of a higher mark in a similar but stronger race and did look like he was ready for a step up in form on the basis of a nice first run this season. He has a decent 7lbs claimer on tomorrow and it leaves him with a very nice racing weight. The current generally available 8/1 looks a decent bet.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

Lovely ...:D:D decent start to the year

longshotvalue · 01-01-2015 4:14pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Cheltenham 3:05

I was sure Rock on Ruby would start favourite for this race, and hopefully the rains don’t arrive but even though he has weight to give to a couple of promising horses he looks great value at 3/1 over his ideal trip and course. Vaniteux will have to be very good to beat him here over this trip.

2 Points win 3/1 Coral Will Hill

Go on Rock....

:D:D Silly Bookies

Letyourselfgo · 01-01-2015 4:17pm

super tipping, thanks for sharing

sdoc13 · 01-01-2015 4:21pm

Well in aidan. Great start to the year

longshotvalue · 02-01-2015 10:37am

3:10 Ayr

This looks a decent race for relatively small money , but Saphir River is going to win at some stage of around this mark and after a couple of decent looking runs this season he may well be ready to do himself justice here at a decent looking price. He ran as well as could be expected at Cheltenham after losing his place after a mistake, and ran well at Aintree the time before. The Favourite could well be a step ahead of the handicapper here bit I’d prefer the 10/1 on offer about my selection to come back to form.

1 Point win 10/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 02-01-2015 10:45am

Ffos Las 2:50

This race will be a slog of the highest order and the bottom weight here Fishing Bridge has stone lighter than anything else to carry here. He is also of a career low mark and the trainer like to have winners here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a bit too much in his favour here today even though he is the outsider of the field. He is a course winner and was backed in a novice handicap chase here last time, so may well be in form at home.

1 Point win 16/1 Bet365

longshotvalue · 02-01-2015 11:10am

Cheltenham AntePost

I’m adding a couple more here with the addition of NRNB on Betfair.

Champion Chase

Sprinter Sacres price of 5/2 is near as good a price as you’ll get anyway (the best being 11/4), and no matter what happens between this and then he won’t go of longer than that if he turns up. Barry was very positive on him and given the possible trouble with Sire De Grugy he could go off long odds on if he runs well on his reappearance.

2 Points win 5/2 NRNB Betfair Sportsbook

Champion Hurdle

Rock on Ruby looks clearly in the top 3 hurdlers at the moment, and given that we have no idea at all how good Faugheen is, I’d have no hesitation is taking the 25/1 with Betfair at the moment. If they do go for the race hell be 12/1 or less on the day for sure.

1 Point EW 25/1 NRNB Betfair Sportsbook

Arkle Chase

Vautour should still be favourite for this in my view, he made a bad mistake last time, but will be a completely different horse on decent ground around Cheltenham. Paddy Power are a standout 8/1 and I can’t leave that there.

2 Points win 8/1 Arkle Paddy Power

madmoose · 02-01-2015 12:15pm

Vautour prob go jlt though? Surely ruby will want to ride UDS arkle and vautour jlt and try and mop up as many rces as he can.

100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

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