100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

rossom

madmoose wrote: »

Vautour prob go jlt though? Surely ruby will want to ride UDS arkle and vautour jlt and try and mop up as many rces as he can.

Think it's more likely one of them heads to the QMCC as opposed to going down the JLT route.

madmoose

rossom wrote: »

Think it's more likely one of them heads to the QMCC as opposed to going down the JLT route.

Cant see either coming out of novice company. Fever was talked up last week by mullins for the qmcc. Im going to say djakadam will be the ryanair horse if fever goes the qmcc.

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

Vautour prob go jlt though? Surely ruby will want to ride UDS arkle and vautour jlt and try and mop up as many rces as he can.

Id say Valseur Lido will go for JLT, they would be mad to do anything else other than the arkle (other than my first choice champion hurdle) for Vautour, the way he went around there on rails last year is taylor made for Arkle, and UDS still hasn't really done anything to warrant being FAV for it.. UDS kind of reminded me of my mistake with Rock on Ruby last year, he may not be suited to jumping fences at cheltenham, maybe more suited to Aintree or the like..

madmoose

aidankkk wrote: »

Id say Valseur Lido will go for JLT, they would be mad to do anything else other than the arkle (other than my first choice champion hurdle) for Vautour, the way he went around there on rails last year is taylor made for Arkle, and UDS still hasn't really done anything to warrant being FAV for it.. UDS kind of reminded me of my mistake with Rock on Ruby last year, he may not be suited to jumping fences at cheltenham, maybe more suited to Aintree or the like..

If vautour is to go jlt then a clash with lido would still be on given that its a giggenstown horse and cooper would be on it.

sdoc13

Aidan you are on fire! Great stuff.

tomaussie

Cracking stuff Aidan.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Ffos Las 2:50

This race will be a slog of the highest order and the bottom weight here Fishing Bridge has stone lighter than anything else to carry here. He is also of a career low mark and the trainer like to have winners here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a bit too much in his favour here today even though he is the outsider of the field. He is a course winner and was backed in a novice handicap chase here last time, so may well be in form at home.

1 Point win 16/1 Bet365

Fecking Beauty:D:D

longshotvalue

Wincanton 3:15

I think the market may have got it wrong here with the Nichols pair. The 7lbs claimer is on Rebel Rebellion more than likely to take 7lbs of his top weight rather than him being 2nd choice here. He ran a great race last time out in the Grand Sefton and is effectively 8lbs better off here. He should like the conditions and trip etc and to be honest seem the most likely winner to me. 6/1 looks a huge price in this race. The favourite Black River finally got it going last time out in a weak enough novice handicap and he seems way to short of his new mark.

2 Points win 6/1 generally.

longshotvalue

Sandown 3:00

If in doubt on a Saturday and the ground is soft, it’s so tempting to go for a Venetia Williams horse blindly. I’ve looked a Leviathan a couple of times for this race and as his price has gone out now to 22/1 I’m getting more and more interested. He was really poor last time here, but had run twice in 3 weeks on soft ground and I’m hoping that had taken its toll. If he can get back to his previous form of that win at Ascot also on soft ground he won’t be out of the equation here as he won well there and is only a manageable 5lbs higher here. I’ll go for a min bet as if it wins and I didn’t put him up the remote would be lodged in the middle of the screen.

½ Point win 22/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Wincanton 2:40

Oscar Prarie is hard enough to catch on the right day , but this time last year of around this mark with a claimer on he won a similar race in similar conditions, and if he needed his seasonal opener and can get back to a bit of form here he can get competitive at a big looking 20/1

½ Point win 20/1 Bet365 & Will-Hill

longshotvalue

Sandown 3:35

I’m not a huge fan of pick one out of the weights here but On Trend has won a similar race to this here on the same ground as today of a higher mark that the one he runs of here. I’d imagine he needed his rather poor seasonal introduction and given his previous over the C&D that today may have been the plan. 10 stone will be a nice weight to slog around here today and at 20/1 he is worth the risk

1 Point win 20/1 Bet365 / Lads

longshotvalue

This tread is currently up 39 Points after 38 Bets. Winners have been

Starluck 2pts win @ 7/1
Rock on Ruby Single and Double with New One +11
Twinlight 1 pts EW 25/1
Pine Creek 2nd at 16/1 EW
Ruacana 1pt win at 8/1
Rock on Ruby 2pt at 3/1
Fishing Bridge 1pt at 16/1

oPATCHo

WD!!

gavindublin

Who kidnapped aidan....

Deco99

gavindublin wrote: »

Who kidnapped aidan....

Shhhh dont force it. There'll be something soon if you're patient.

longshotvalue

2:40 Kempton

This looks a poor enough renewal and the minute I saw the race Dell Arca sprung to mind. He was second last year in about as deep a handicap hurdle as you’re likely to find in the Betfair Hurdle on heavy ground and gave the impression that he would like further. He proved that with a good 5th at the festival and although he is higher in the weights here, he looks to have a nice racing weight with 11:02. I think 10/1 is great value and although he has possibly been a bit of a disappointment over fences, he has been racing against top class opposition.

2 Points win 10/1 Generally

longshotvalue

3:35 Warwick

I’m going against all possible sense here, but I’m drawn to Peckhamecho here at a decent price. He has only jumped fences 3 times, and those in 2012, but he is on a good mark in comparison to his hurdle mark and he has a bit of class which if he can convert to fences he is very unexposed. He hasn’t tried this kind of trip either but he did have a decent win at Aintree this year on his first try at over 3 miles over hurdles. It was almost a case of rulling out everything else as no value and ending up here.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Kempton 3:15

Howards Legacy seems a decent price in this race. He has been good this year apart from last time when an early mistake put paid to his chances. He is well capable of this mark as he has proven in the past, and has form on this type of ground. Add in the old faithfull (Saturday, Heavy Ground, V Williams) and we have value here at 12/1


1 Point win 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue

4:00 Punchestown

Turban isn’t the choice on Ruby here but he is probably the best horse in the race, is in here on very good terms getting weight from most of the others and is an easy selection at a too big looking 8/1. He fell early last week over fences, and is probably on a mission to get back confidence here but any of his hurdles form over the last year or two could well be good enough to win on these terms.

2 Points win 8/1 Generally

longshotvalue

2:50 Wetherby

Harry Hunt has caught my eye here of what looks a very good mark. He is a c&d winner a few years ago and although he hasn’t been that great for a while, he showed up well enough last time before getting tired. The step down in trip and slightly better ground may well put him in here with a decent shout at a good price. 12/1 looks worth the risk in this race.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Cheltenham Ryanair Chase

Now that Cue Card is confirmed for this I think the 10/1 available will go quickly enough and is already disappearing. He won this 2 years ago in a canter is great at the course and his poor form lately looks to be down to not staying as well as I thought. Either way he is proven over C&D and that means everything here.

2 Points win 10/1 Tote/Fred/Sbet

Gringo180

aidankkk wrote: »

Cheltenham Ryanair Chase

Now that Cue Card is confirmed for this I think the 10/1 available will go quickly enough and is already disappearing. He won this 2 years ago in a canter is great at the course and his poor form lately looks to be down to not staying as well as I thought. Either way he is proven over C&D and that means everything here.

2 Points win 10/1 Tote/Fred/Sbet

Will have my biggest bet at the festival in this race but I will be on Johns Spirit. Didn't stay in the King George after travelling beautifully for 2 and a half miles, he ran an absolute blinding race in the PP Gold Cup carrying top weight, idled in front and was caught on the line by Caid Du Berlais. This ever improving 8 year old will go very close imo. Currently 10/1.

madmoose

Don cossack will have them all in the ryanair. Im on at 16/1 a few months back so hopefully he will win thurs and then kept fresh for the ryanair

jimjamcos

madmoose wrote: »

Don cossack will have them all in the ryanair. Im on at 16/1 a few months back so hopefully he will win thurs and then kept fresh for the ryanair

Don't know, he still has plenty to prove at Cheltenham compared to Cue Card

Shemale

Was backing Cossack from around October last year for the RSA, havent seem the race since last year but I remember he fell and his jumping was poor before thank.

It was the ground and/or course last year and its going to be the same. He looks better this year but big question remains over him on the same ground, course and going quicker should surely put more pressure on his jumping.

longshotvalue

Newbury 2:50

On Trend was my pick in Unioniste’s race at Sandown a couple of weeks ago at a big price, and he ran really well considering he was out of the handicap. He is effectively 4lbs better off here and really should be suited to the conditions. This is a much weaker race that the Sandown one at 7/1 looks value.

1 Point win 7/1 Ladbrokes

sizing europe

aidankkk wrote: »

Newbury 2:50

On Trend was my pick in Unioniste’s race at Sandown a couple of weeks ago at a big price, and he ran really well considering he was out of the handicap. He is effectively 4lbs better off here and really should be suited to the conditions. This is a much weaker race that the Sandown one at 7/1 looks value.

1 Point win 7/1 Ladbrokes

Couldnt make it into work today with the snow and ice, so I will be sure to have a piece off that horse. into 6s now

longshotvalue

3:35 Ascot

Ackertac is one I’ve had my eye on for a while now, as he tumbles down the weight’s towards an doable mark. He has some decent form at Ascot, ran well enough at Cheltenham earlier this year and in all probability this is his best trip. He also has decent form on soft and if he gets his act together today he will look value at 28/1, which is nearly twice the price of anything else in the field.

1 Point EW 28/1 Bet365

stretchaq

Aidan norville in Dundalk??? Hope u were on

longshotvalue

stretchaq wrote: »

Aidan norville in Dundalk??? Hope u were on

I wasn't.. :rolleyes: