Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Saturday, 1st of August, 2009
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TODAY will start out with a few sunny intervals in eastern counties but heavy and somewhat squally showers are quickly advancing from the western counties at present (0720h) to reach central Ireland by about 0900 and the east coast probably around 10 a.m. ... when these arrive, they will be quite variable from place to place but locally quite heavy and even thundery; there could also be some hail, and highest temperatures will be 16 or 17 C. Winds will increase again to about W 25-40 mph. It will be particularly windy over the coastal parts of Mayo and Donegal as well as any higher terrain in most of Ireland. In those locations, some gusts could reach 50 mph.

There might be some improvement later on in the southwest and south coastal regions, perhaps the late afternoon and evening will turn out a bit more pleasant for outdoor activities.

TONIGHT should see a clearing interval followed by a gradual increase in cloud towards morning. Lows will reach 7-9 C in most places, about 10-13 C in the southwest due to the earlier cloud.

SUNDAY will start out dry, if cloudy, then rain will develop as winds become stronger from the south. It could be quite a heavy and thundery rain in some parts by late afternoon and evening. Highs will reach 18 C or thereabouts.

MONDAY will also feature some strong SW winds and locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. This might prove to be quite a stormy day, watch for updates. The temperature range will be about 12 to 19 C.

TUESDAY will become more variable with some chance of a few sunny intervals, but also the strong risk of showers and more thundershowers later. Once again, it will be slightly on the warm and humid side with highs perhaps in the 20 C range.

LATER in the WEEK, the signals are somewhat mixed, there could be an upward temperature trend but it may be more difficult to get rid of all the cloud despite some high pressure ridging in from around the Azores; the problem is that weak low pressure over southern England could create a frontal zone that keeps cloud over at least southeast Ireland much of this period. So the prospects are mixed for a warming trend, it might be more noticeable towards the west coast and in parts of the north not exposed to a northeast sea breeze at least.

More later, perhaps if any other boards weather enthusiasts feel like pinpointing some heavier showers or stronger winds as they develop.

Sunday, 2nd of August, 2009
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TODAY will be cloudy with light and intermittent rain spreading slowly across Ireland once again from southwest to northeast. This could become steadier rain at times, but low cloud may also lead to fog and mist especially over hills and in the south coastal districts. Winds will slowly pick up also to reach about 20-30 mph at times from the south, with stronger near-gale conditions off the west coast. Highs will be about 17 or 18 C.

TONIGHT is likely to remain foggy in places, misty or at least cloudy elsewhere, with showery rain continuing, and possibly an isolated thundershower. Lows will be about 12 to 14 C.

MONDAY will turn somewhat warmer and quite humid with periods of heavy rain developing, and risk of some thunderstorms especially in the southwest to central counties towards late afternoon and evening. There may be a severe storm risk with this, watch for updates. Despite all that, temperatures will approach 20 C and could hit around 22 C in the inland southwest, and winds will become quite strong from the south veering to SSW 25-40 mph with possible higher gusts.

The unsettled weather will shift further northeast by evening and through Monday night with lows near 14 C.

TUESDAY could turn out quite variable in sky conditions as some sunny intervals develop, still in a warm SSW flow of 20-30 mph, but with various lines of showers and a few thundershowers developing rapidly in western counties and spreading northeast at intervals, so that overall it could be quite a wet day for the west and north. Highs will be around 20 or 21 C.

WEDNESDAY will see more showers and local thunderstorms with gusty SW to W winds as a slight cooling trend develops, but this will be more noticeable in Donegal and Mayo. There will also be some limited sunny intervals between lines of showers advancing from west to east; overall, highs should stay close to 20 C trending to 16 C in the far north.

If the overall rainfall Sunday to Wednesday is of interest, I would say the potential looks like this -- 25 to 50 mms in total for most locations, but quite variable both place to place and day to day. One or two places could see even more than 50 mms but then again you could luck out and have only 10-15 mms all told. The "over/under" figure would be about 30 mms over the four days.

LATER in the WEEK, the general trend is towards cloud in the southeast, more chance of some clear intervals and sunshine in the northwest, but the risk of rain either moderate or low for Ireland; the southeast could be brushed at times by rain spreading north from France into southern England, Wales and the Irish Sea. Highs could edge upwards especially with any sunshine to about 22-23 C.

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Wednesday, 5 August, 2009
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TODAY will feature some longer sunny intervals and rather warm temperatures rising to about 21 or 22 C in eastern counties, compared to about 18 C in the west where cloud may be more prevalent. Some showers are likely to brush by western Mayo and others could develop here and there in west-central counties later on, but many will experience a fairly dry day and winds will ease off somewhat after a windy start in Galway and Mayo.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows near 13 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with more cloud in the northwest, and a slight chance of a shower there. Highs will reach about 18 or 19 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY is now looking quite settled and in most places at least partly sunny, in fact some eastern and southern counties could see a lot of sunshine, and highs will slowly edge up from about 19 to about 22 C, with rather cool nights reaching 8-10 C before sunrise each morning. Winds will be generally rather light, adding to the warmer feel.

NEXT WEEK is starting to look quite warm to borderline hot with highs possibly reaching the mid 20s in eastern counties especially; the light SSW flow will cool south and west coast locations a little, but it should be quite summery for several days.

As to the rising jet stream, this seems to be a process already underway now and lifting the remnants of the nearby ocean storm away from the west coast towards Iceland, which is cancelling out the effects of cooler air rotating around the system and keeping the weather more or less "steady as she goes" for a few days. Next year, well I will not even hazard a guess there.

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 9:30 p.m.
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Things continue to look very nice for the foreseeable future, especially through the weekend and next week ... no big changes in the forecast then.

Around where I live, the heat wave has broken down finally, we had quite a bit of cloud all morning from a marine layer on westerly winds, now that is breaking to reveal some afternoon sunshine, but it is a comfortable 21 C.

Thursday, 6 August, 2009
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TODAY will see cloud brushing the west coast and bringing some light showers at times there, but longer sunny intervals are likely in most other parts of Ireland. The cloud and showers could try to edge a bit further east at times into central Ireland and parts of Ulster. Highs today will be generally near 17 C in the west and 20 C in the east.

TONIGHT will continue about the same, with more cloud in the west and north than other parts of Ireland, and lows reflecting this, only dropping to about 12 or 13 C in the cloudy west and north, but 8-10 C under clear skies further south and east.

FRIDAY will probably see even more widespread sunshine but there is a slight chance of longer cloudy intervals and brief showers across the far northwest, mainly Donegal and parts of Mayo. Highs will be about the same as today, mostly near 20 C.

SATURDAY should continue reasonably warm and dry with partly cloudy to sunny skies, just a slight chance of a shower in the west and north, and lows near 9 C followed by highs near 21 C.

SUNDAY could be even a little warmer, and still sunny for most, with highs of about 22 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY look fine, with various guidance disagreeing only as to how warm it might get, the average of all predictions is about 22-24 C with some warmer possibilities showing 24-27 C in eastern counties. Whatever verifies it is likely that the west coast will be cooler due to an onshore seabreeze, and usually the south coast picks up a southerly seabreeze in these patterns as well, so locally it could be around 18 C near the sea, trending to 21 C well inland.

Yes, I am enjoying the more comfortable temperatures, saves me from having to go that far, which I was considering by day seven of the 30 plus heat wave.

Friday, 7 August, 2009
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TODAY will feature some longer sunny intervals in most parts of Ireland, while cloud advances slowly east ahead of some light rain that may reach the outer west coast by mid-day but probably won't affect west-central Ireland until evening. There is also some hope that this rain will be patchy and losing what strength it has at present (which looks like 3-5 mms potential for the western coastal districts). So in other words, it should be a dry and fairly sunny day for most other parts, and highs may reach 20 or 21 C. A few very light showers meanwhile are edging away from the east coast and parts of Ulster but the cloud associated may linger for a few hours this morning.

TONIGHT, what's left of this rain is likely to edge further east, but the rain may only be heavy enough to measure in the northwest and some central counties. Further south and east it could remain dry, although cloud is likely to spread into all other counties. Lows will be about 10-13 C.

SATURDAY should find the patchy rain still left in this weak system crossing Ulster and some other parts of central and eastern Ireland. For most of the west and south, the day should see gradual improvement with low cloud giving way to partly cloudy skies and some late afternoon and evening sunshine. Rainfall across the northeast may be in the range of 3-7 mms but the steadier or heavier amounts will likely be in Northern Ireland. Highs on Saturday will range from near 21 C in the inland south and southwest, to 17 C in the northeast, probably around 19 C in Dublin.

SUNDAY looks fairly dry also, with the main issue being possible low cloud and drizzle in places especially in western counties, as a warm front develops to the west and edges towards Ireland through the day. With any luck there could be some clearing of this cloud by mid-morning, and eastern counties may have more sunshine in any case. After morning lows near 9-12 C the afternoon lows should be about 18 C in the west to 22 C in the east.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY is still looking warmer, the best chance for higher temperatures and warm sunshine is in the east and inland south, whereas the west and south coasts could be socked in by low cloud and fog at times. This should be confined to the near-coastal areas and temperatures are likely to increase rapidly away from this lower cloud and fog, to reach 22-26 C in much of the country, but only 17-19 C along the exposed coasts. The east coast on the other hand should enjoy the warmer conditions with a generally SW to W breeze.

LATER NEXT WEEK the prospects are for showers followed by considerably cooler weather arriving (naturally) around Friday night.

So in general for this weekend, it's a case of fingers crossed that it will either be not too bad, or even turning out quite pleasant despite some low cloud or spotty drizzle to start. At any rate, it's the weekend.

Saturday, 8 August, 2009
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TODAY will start out cloudy with sporadic drizzle continuing to track eastwards across the northern parts of the country, but by mid-day there could be some brighter periods and the sun could be out for a while in the afternoon and early evening especially in the south and west. Highs will reach about 18 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will tend to become foggy or misty with drizzle returning to most western and later northern districts. Lows will be rather mild, near 13 C.

SUNDAY will have some brighter intervals again by mid-morning, then some light rain may edge into the northwest by late afternoon, but it will feel quite warm and humid, with highs near 20 C (possibly 22 C in the southeast).

SUNDAY NIGHT will bring a period of steadier rain across most northern districts, and foggy or misty conditions further south, with lows near 14 C.

MONDAY, the rain should gradually end with some brighter intervals by mid-day and sunshine by afternoon in at least the southern and eastern parts of the country. Highs will range from 18 C in the northwest, to 23 C in the southeast.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY is looking quite warm and at times sunny, with some lingering low cloud or fog near the western and southern coasts. The east coast in particular should be warm thanks to a westerly breeze, and highs there could reach 22-24 C. Elsewhere it is likely to be around 20 C, and nights will remain quite warm, near 14 C. Showers may arrive by late Thursday in advance of a cooling trend.

FRIDAY is likely to be windy, showery and somewhat cooler, then the following WEEKEND is likely to bring considerably cooler weather on gusty W to NW winds, with showers mixed in, and temperatures falling back to the 15-17 C range in the daytime.

Hope you have an enjoyable weekend.

Monday, 10 August, 2009
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TODAY will start out cloudy with widespread mist or light fog, then eventually some sunshine is likely to develop, with highs of about 22 C in the east, 20 C in most other parts of Ireland, and 17 C near the south and west coasts.

TONIGHT will become misty and then foggy in many places, but it will remain quite mild with lows near 15 C.

TUESDAY is likely to be similar with morning low cloud and fog giving way to partly cloudy, warm conditions with intervals of sunshine, and highs near 23 C in the east, 19 C in the west and south coastal districts.

WEDNESDAY may start out with morning lows near 15 C, with some brief light rain or drizzle especially in the west and north before more sunshine develops, and highs should reach 22-24 C.

THURSDAY will bring more sunny intervals, after a somewhat cooler morning low of about 9-12 cC, and highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY there may be some stronger winds and showers, or locally heavy thundershowers, with highs near 21 C.

THE WEEKEND is looking breezy, showery at times, and somewhat cooler in stages, with 19 C on Saturday and about 17 C on Sunday.

Tuesday, 11 August, 2009
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TODAY should turn out to be quite pleasant with at least some sunshine, except perhaps near the south coast where fog may be persistent, and also in Donegal and the northern parts of NI, where cloud heading for Scotland may stream across most of the day. That leaves most of Ireland under partly to mostly sunny skies, once the morning mist thins out, and temperatures heading for about 23 C away from slightly cooler sea breezes from a westerly direction (south near the south and east coasts). The southwest may see an increase in cloud late in the day from a weak system well out in the Atlantic this morning, but this should remain dry.

TONIGHT will be quite pleasant too with rather warm overnight lows of 12-14 C and clear to partly cloudy skies until late fog develops.

WEDNESDAY should also start out dry with some sunshine, however, there now appears to be some risk of showers with a weak frontal wave, most likely in the southwest. Highs will reach 22-24 C in the east, and about 20 C in the west. If rain does materialize, it should move in quite slowly and outside of Kerry it may not bring a measurable amount until evening.

THURSDAY is likely to be cloudy with some sunny intervals, and the morning may have some lingering light rain or showers ... highs will be close to 21 C after mild morning lows of about 14 C.

FRIDAY is now looking less windy than previously advertised, because the weekend low is evolving on a somewhat slower schedule. It is still likely to be cloudy with periods of rain developing, becoming heavier by evening. Highs will be around 19-21 C.

SATURDAY could be quite stormy on current guidance, with heavy showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds may follow by evening, from the SW veering to WNW overnight. Highs will be about 18-19 C.

SUNDAY is then likely to be cloudy with afternoon sunny intervals, passing showers, and strong NW'ly winds possibly gusting to gale force ... stay tuned as this may turn out to be quite a blustery day for various outdoor activities. The current guidance suggests wind gusts to 55 mph possible off the west coast.

Well, enjoy today, it may turn out to be the pick of the week in most places.

Wednesday, 12 August, 2009
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There are some signs of improvement of the weekend forecast as far as Sunday goes, resulting from a general speeding up of the wave train heading for Ireland later in the week. However, Monday will now get round two of the weekend storm potential. Saturday is still basically a meteorological write-off unless you hope to jump from a high cliff and sail a prodigious distance with some risk of electrocution.

But the weather pattern at first is rather mundane, so I thought a little off-the-wall humour might be in order. (many readers say, we thought this was always the case here ...)

TODAY in any case will start out rather cloudy and the sun will have a hard time breaking through, although it may be seen trying at times. There could also be some drizzle or light rain mainly across the central parts of Ireland, with highs today 19-21 C. If any sun does break through, it could reach 23 or 24 C locally, probably in the southeast. It will feel very muggy as this air mass has travelled up from the subtropics.

TONIGHT will become quite misty with a little more light rain, and then foggy as skies overhead clear to some extent, but the low-level moisture will then be trapped by a weak inversion, with lows near 12 C.

THURSDAY could bring a few sunny intervals especially in eastern sections, with more extensive cloud streaming in later. Highs will be about 22 C. Rain may be edging in by late afternoon in the southwest, and some places could have a period of drizzle or light rain during the day as high pressure moving across is rather weak.

FRIDAY will become quite windy and wet from early morning, with risk of some thunderstorms but generally a soaking rain for a few hours, after which it may tend to clear slightly from the southwest, with winds becoming SW 20-35 mph, and highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and later on quite windy, especially in Donegal and Mayo where gusts may reach 45 or 50 mph from the west and later northwest. Most of the day will be fairly mild with persistent showers and risk of heavy thundershowers with hail possible, on gusty SW winds 30-45 mph at times. Somewhat colder air will arrive by evening on the strong NW winds. Highs will be near 19 C. There could be a risk of severe local storms around Galway towards Offaly and Westmeath, stay tuned for more about that.

SUNDAY may turn out alright after all, due to the faster motion of the Saturday low. Assuming this is actually true, then Sunday will see the brief but timely influence of a ridge of high pressure bringing some mid-day sunshine after the cloudy, windy early morning period, and before cloud and rain arrive late at night for Monday. This timing is a bit delicate for my liking at five days out, but that's what the guidance is saying, so I will at least report it as such, and hope for the best ... highs would be near 19 C.

MONDAY would then become cloudy, windy and wet again, with quite gusty winds and risk of some heavy rainfalls.

You're having a slightly better day than we are here, it has been cloudy since early morning and off and on rain, about 4 mms so far, mostly before noon. It is about 18 C. Needless to say the ridge is long gone, it was 97 F in Washington DC yesterday, that's where our heat wave ended up, and so it must be trying to go your way. We'll see what the Atlantic has to say about that idea.

UPDATE _ Friday, 5:30 p.m.
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Mainly light showers at worst for the Dublin region this evening, as well as large sections of the southeast and south central parts of Ireland. Somewhat heavier but still intermittent rain elsewhere, with the prospects of some heavy showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late tonight, between 0300 and 0600, as the most active part of this frontal system moves across Ireland. Both Saturday and Sunday are looking changeable and it isn't likely to rain all day but it's not likely to remain dry all day, so your outdoor plans may involve a quick look at the radar to pick a window of opportunity (or an umbrella). Storm lovers may be thrilled to see the latest output for Tuesday and Wednesday, it looks quite enticing. More about that as we get closer to the events.

The weather here today is about the same as in western Ireland, cloudy with rain on and off, not too warm but humid at 16 C. Looks like a drying and warming trend for us over the weekend.

Hope you all have a marvellous weekend and perhaps PH can get some revenge on the T-man at the PGA (if you're lost, you won't care anyway).

Sunday, 16 August, 2009
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TODAY will continue mostly cloudy with brief sunny intervals in the east and south, while drizzly light rain moves into western counties on a brisk SW'ly breeze. Later on, somewhat heavier rain will develop and bring 5-10 mms to most of Connacht, with 3-7 mms for Ulster and most of Leinster, possibly a bit less for Munster overnight. Highs will be around 17 to 19 C today.

TONIGHT will see the periods of rain tapering off to drizzle and mist or fog by early morning, with lows around 13 C.

MONDAY will have some breaks in the overcast, and a few hours of sunshine will develop across some southern and eastern counties from late morning to evening. The west and north will tend to be more cloudy and some sporadic drizzle or light rain could continue there. Highs will vary from 16 C in Donegal to 21 C in the southeast. Monday night will continue to bring some clear intervals and it may be a little cooler than most recent nights with rural lows of 8 or 9 C possible.

TUESDAY will become cloudy from around sunrise with periods of rain developing along with moderate southerly winds and temperatures rising to about 20 or 21 C. The rain could become thundery in a few places.

WEDNESDAY is likely to bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine with scattered showers and thundershowers, with moderate SSW winds that could become gusty around some of the heavier showers. Highs will be around 22 C in some eastern counties and 19-20 C for most other districts.

THURSDAY may bring some sunny intervals with highs near 20 C, but FRIDAY is currently looking wet with highs held down to 17 C by the rain and low cloud. Next weekend promises more unsettled and slightly warmer than average conditions.

The rather rapid onset of tropical storm activity may be part of a large-scale change over the Atlantic which could actually favour Ireland with a better chance of high pressure settling over the region later in August and into early September. A related change that may be a good sign is that persistent cool weather (relative to normal) in the northeast U.S. through June and July has eased to a somewhat warmer than normal pattern in early August. It shows that a long-term "height deficit" (meaning a depressed jet stream) over the Atlantic is slowly easing, but so far the pace of change has been too slow to give Ireland much improvement from July to August. Even so, I think there will be one more warm spell or mini-heat wave to add to the brief ones observed earlier this summer. And then there's always late February for some reliable warm weather.