Property Market 2019

fliball123 · 30-09-2019 4:35pm

Kamili wrote: »

absolutely, and what is coming online in the areas I am looking is not in great knick, and not selling either months after I have viewed.

One house I looked at was withdrawn due to a miriad of horrendous complications and was way overpriced for what it was to begin with.

Well think anyone selling has to buy as well so they will also be buying at the top of the market as well. A lot of people holding sway both buyers and sellers until brexit goes through or away, only problem is people selling are in a house paying a mortgage, those looking to buy have rent to pay

mcbert · 30-09-2019 4:36pm

ELM327 wrote: »

We've decided not to sell now and to stay where we are and see what the next 12 months bring.
I suspect we're not the only ones.

I'm not one for taking much notice what an EA says, but we did bid on one house, it went above asking, too high, EA said that people are holding off putting their house for sale thinking they might not get a good price right now, but that is limiting what is on the market, making certain houses go for more.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 30-09-2019 4:36pm

Kamili wrote: »

absolutely, and what is coming online in the areas I am looking is not in great knick, and not selling either months after I have viewed.

One house I looked at was withdrawn due to a miriad of horrendous complications and was way overpriced for what it was to begin with.

Seeing a lot of places even in great condition having no bids after 6+ weeks.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 30-09-2019 4:38pm

ELM327 wrote: »

We've decided not to sell now and to stay where we are and see what the next 12 months bring.
I suspect we're not the only ones.

Can I ask the rationale behind this?

I would see it being more likely of price drops in 12 months vs price rises. Could be wrong. Just seems that way.

ELM327 · 30-09-2019 4:43pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Can I ask the rationale behind this?

I would see it being more likely of price drops in 12 months vs price rises. Could be wrong. Just seems that way.

Market drops by 20% say, we lose 20% on our house but the more expensive house we want to move to also drops 20%
In that example we profit by 20% of the difference between the two purchase prices

We're holding off, hoping for a price drop

The_Conductor · 30-09-2019 4:46pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Seeing a lot of places even in great condition having no bids after 6+ weeks.

A lot of the frenzy is gone.
You see it at the open days at new developments too- in a lot of cases its almost like there is tumbleweed- they're deserted.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 30-09-2019 4:49pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Market drops by 20% say, we lose 20% on our house but the more expensive house we want to move to also drops 20%
In that example we profit by 20% of the difference between the two purchase prices

We're holding off, hoping for a price drop

I think you are right. Makes me wonder how is negative equity an issue then when price drops for home owners can be a positive thing?

riclad · 30-09-2019 4:52pm

I Read an article 5 weeks ago, builders are relying more on dublin city council to buy more house,s in new estates .They cant raise prices on new build,s because most buyers cannot afford to borrow more than 250K,
Under the lending limits imposed by the regulator .
Even if price,s only fall by a few per cent in the next year , this will put off builders
who are maybe at the stage of seeking finance for new projects .

ZX7R · 30-09-2019 4:54pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I think you are right. Makes me wonder how is negative equity an issue then when price drops for home owners can be a positive thing?

Negative equity is only a problem if the property is mortgage.

No mortgage no negative equity

ELM327 · 30-09-2019 4:56pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I think you are right. Makes me wonder how is negative equity an issue then when price drops for home owners can be a positive thing?

Based on current prices I have approx 33% equity and that's going up.
Equity is not an issue. If it becomes negative equity I'll rent it out instead and take advantage of cheaper houses to purchase and move.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 30-09-2019 4:57pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Based on current prices I have approx 33% equity and that's going up.
Equity is not an issue. If it becomes negative equity I'll rent it out instead and take advantage of cheaper houses to purchase and move.

But won't you require 20pc deposit? That would be hard to find.

FastFullBack · 30-09-2019 5:03pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Market drops by 20% say, we lose 20% on our house but the more expensive house we want to move to also drops 20%
In that example we profit by 20% of the difference between the two purchase prices

We're holding off, hoping for a price drop

We're in the exact same boat.

Right now I think my house would sell for 280K and max I'd like to spend on an upgrade is 430K, so that's 150K of a difference.
If prices fall by 10% I save 15K. Here's hoping.

Browney7 · 30-09-2019 5:57pm

All anecdotal evidence on apartments in the area of Dublin 15 I've been following:

2 bed apartment put on daft for 370k last may. Dropped asking to 330k after 2 weeks. Sale agreed and probably sold for 330k (not on reg yet).

Another one put up for 370k, dropped asking to 355k and then 345k. Went sale agreed at 336k about 5 weeks ago.

2 bed apartment in a nearby development went sale agreed at 290k but that looks to have fallen through.

Viewed the three of them, all were landlords selling. Noticed a good few others that were removed from Daft after a few weeks on the market.

awec · 30-09-2019 7:23pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Based on current prices I have approx 33% equity and that's going up.
Equity is not an issue. If it becomes negative equity I'll rent it out instead and take advantage of cheaper houses to purchase and move.

If it enters negative equity (i.e. if prices drop anywhere near 33%) then moving house will be the least of your worries.

liam7831 · 30-09-2019 9:03pm

Sold house in June renting now looks like I just got out in time, defo see not much property being advertised at the moment and still some people looking for Jan 19 prices

cruizer101 · 01-10-2019 10:32am

liam7831 wrote: »

Sold house in June renting now looks like I just got out in time, defo see not much property being advertised at the moment and still some people looking for Jan 19 prices

Maybe I'm missing something but now seems like completely the wrong time to sell a property and go rent.
Potentially property prices are at a bit of a peak (personally think not going to drop significantly more likely just stagnate) but rents are currrently at all time high.
For the same property the cost of servicing a mortgage would be significantly less than renting.

Bluefoam · 01-10-2019 10:35am

cruizer101 wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing something but now seems like completely the wrong time to sell a property and go rent.
Potentially property prices are at a bit of a peak (personally think not going to drop significantly more likely just stagnate) but rents are currrently at all time high.
For the same property the cost of servicing a mortgage would be significantly less than renting.

Unless you sold the house to invest in sterling.... buy high sell low!!!

The_Conductor · 01-10-2019 10:43am

cruizer101 wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing something but now seems like completely the wrong time to sell a property and go rent.
Potentially property prices are at a bit of a peak (personally think not going to drop significantly more likely just stagnate) but rents are currrently at all time high.
For the same property the cost of servicing a mortgage would be significantly less than renting.

The poster has locked in the value of their property at a set price, meanwhile property they are interested in are falling in price and the combined fall in the value of their unit and fall in asking price of whatever they're interested in- is more than their current rent...…… Its entirely possible or even probable- that the figures stack up nicely for the poster. I'd not have the gonads to do it- but fair play to the poster.

Cyrus · 01-10-2019 11:20am

The_Conductor wrote: »

The poster has locked in the value of their property at a set price, meanwhile property they are interested in are falling in price and the combined fall in the value of their unit and fall in asking price of whatever they're interested in- is more than their current rent...…… Its entirely possible or even probable- that the figures stack up nicely for the poster. I'd not have the gonads to do it- but fair play to the poster.

perhaps, be good if the OP posted whenever they do buy something else to show the figures,

you would need to be in a certain situation to do it, i wouldnt go moving a family into rented accommodation to try something like that personally.

ELM327 · 01-10-2019 11:24am

Pheonix10 wrote: »

But won't you require 20pc deposit? That would be hard to find.

Yes. But we are saving already (already underwritten and approved) and have approx 10% saved. In another 12-18 months we will have the 20% even if nothing changes

awec wrote: »

If it enters negative equity (i.e. if prices drop anywhere near 33%) then moving house will be the least of your worries.

Why?
Job cuts? Not likely to affect my job, in a downturn you need more loss and risk management not less.
Lack of approvals for mortgages? True, but again, see above, if anyone will be approved it's candidates like us. 80% LTV in a contracted market situation.

awec · 01-10-2019 11:32am

ELM327 wrote: »

Yes. But we are saving already (already underwritten and approved) and have approx 10% saved. In another 12-18 months we will have the 20% even if nothing changes

Why?
Job cuts? Not likely to affect my job, in a downturn you need more loss and risk management not less.
Lack of approvals for mortgages? True, but again, see above, if anyone will be approved it's candidates like us. 80% LTV in a contracted market situation.

The market conditions to trigger a 33% drop in property prices would be pretty catastrophic. You are talking 2008 all over again.

Ireland, as a state, would be bankrupt. Banks would collapse. They just about survived last time, they wouldn't survive anything like that again.

ELM327 · 01-10-2019 11:34am

awec wrote: »

The market conditions to trigger a 33% drop in property prices would be pretty catastrophic. You are talking 2008 all over again.

Ireland, as a state, would be bankrupt. Banks would collapse. They just about survived last time, they wouldn't survive anything like that again.

Ah ok yes from a macro POV, sorry, yes, point taken.
There are no tools left, as we still havent reversed interest rate decisions from the last time

cruizer101 · 01-10-2019 11:43am

The_Conductor wrote: »

The poster has locked in the value of their property at a set price, meanwhile property they are interested in are falling in price and the combined fall in the value of their unit and fall in asking price of whatever they're interested in- is more than their current rent...…… Its entirely possible or even probable- that the figures stack up nicely for the poster. I'd not have the gonads to do it- but fair play to the poster.

Ok yeah I can see the logic now but still not sure its a good idea.
Its similar to the news the other day re investors shorting on IRES REIT (I think it was them anyway) but you also have the rent to contend with.
From some quick napkin maths I reckon you would want at least a 5% drop in a year to make it worth your while, or rent a property worth significantly less then your own.

Bit risky for my liking, and I don't see prices going down much, but fair play if OP can make it work for them, definitely don't think would risk if had family in tow.

wildlifeboy · 01-10-2019 2:57pm

Im in a similar boat. my house is sold but i now see prices dropping, wondering if i should wait to see if they fall a lot

spuddy · 01-10-2019 3:06pm

deleted post

JohnnyChimpo · 01-10-2019 3:09pm

As already stated, it would have to be seriously plummeting prices to outpace rent outlay+stampduty+solicitor fees+valuation+survey+moving costs+cost of time spent looking+opportunity cost

ZX7R · 01-10-2019 4:42pm

I posted this before, but terraced houses in newbridge, Kildare town and surrounding areas are selling like wild fire.
Many young couples looking to live near there parents, I know one couple who have had there bids rejected at least 4 time's after been accepted because Kildare co council bought said house's.
Feel sorry for young couples trying outbid the council

oceanman · 01-10-2019 7:38pm

ZX7R wrote: »

I posted this before, but terraced houses in newbridge, Kildare town and surrounding areas are selling like wild fire.
Many young couples looking to live near there parents, I know one couple who have had there bids rejected at least 4 time's after been accepted because Kildare co council bought said house's.
Feel sorry for young couples trying outbid the council

I hear what you are saying but the council need houses too. pity they don't build some more instead of buying them.

Sheeps · 01-10-2019 7:59pm

Councils should be building their own houses. Part V needs to be scrapped. The developers add the cost onto the price of all the private sales, and it's a significant factor in increasing the cost of new builds for people who don't qualify for social housing but fall short of being able to afford at entry level prices.

That coulpled with the fact that the council would no longer be competing with first time buyers, would result in a significant price drop.

The social housing mix should only be a policy for when housing is in plentyful supply.

02-10-2019 8:57pm

Recently I am selling my house and buying a new one. Every one I have looked at are taking longer to sell but achieving the asking or more. My own house has gone over the asking. The pace has def gone out of it but there is no drops for quality and good areas

Property Market 2019

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