General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Danzy · 13-11-2019 11:17pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/labour-election-manifesto-activists-radical-policies

Labour activists are going hard to sink the ship.

Good chance that not only will their be a Tory majority but Labour will lose its heartlands.

As if alienating Scotland wasn't enough.

johnnyskeleton · 13-11-2019 11:19pm

As strange as it may sound, I hope the Tories get a massive majority e.g. 80 or more, so that they can ignore the ERG types.

The Johnson deal is basically the May deal with a permanent backstop (or the front stop, or the permastop, or whatever people are calling it).

This is the best outcome for Ireland short of the UK staying in the EU.

I dont see how a remain majority can possibly win as the UK are stuck in the Tory v Labour duopoly.

Labour are utterly reprensible. Kier Starmer on Piers Morgan may have been ambushed and the Tories may have falsely edited the footage as a meme, but what shouldnt be lost is that Labours policy is:
1. Have another referendum;
2. Show absolutely no leadership or opinion either way;
3. Somehow use 1. and 2. above to agree a deal with the EU for which they have absolutely no concrete plans as tk what it looks like;
4. Whenever any kind of concrete proposal arises, it splits the party. So just keep talking about how wonderful its all going to be at some unspecified point in the future.

Crazy that Labour are worse than the Tories kn Brexit but there ya go.

Hopefully SNP sweep the board in Scotland, and Lib Dems do better than expected. But for all our sakes wed better hope that Labour support collapses. If it doesnt, its either a hung parliament or labour coalition, both of which options will lead to another 3-5 yeads of Brexit wheel spinning

Joe_ Public · 13-11-2019 11:20pm

Danzy wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/labour-election-manifesto-activists-radical-policies

Labour activists are going hard to sink the ship.

I think there is a strong chance that Labour will take an almighty battering.

Very difficult conundrum to solve. Labour support swinging towards a younger, more cosmopolitan demographic very much pro immigration but how to square that with the traditional base who want a tougher line. They'll have to fudge it somehow i think, but nobodys going to be entirely happy with that.

hotmail.com · 13-11-2019 11:24pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Northern Ireland will not be counted until the following day as usual I presume?

Since 2010, votes in the North get counted overnight.

An Ciarraioch · 13-11-2019 11:25pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Northern Ireland will not be counted until the following day as usual I presume?

In 2017 they counted overnight, like the UK.

Danzy · 13-11-2019 11:29pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Very difficult conundrum to solve. Labour support swinging towards a younger, more cosmopolitan demographic very much pro immigration but how to square that with the traditional base who want a tougher line. They'll have to fudge it somehow i think, but nobodys going to be entirely happy with that.

How to square appealing to young cosmopolitans who want a position on migration that was even too radically free market for Thatcher but decide calling it solidarity or Internationalism makes it compatible with welfare state, public housing, unions, workers rights etc.

Can't be done.

Labour hasn't an idea who it represents or even a coherent and unified vision.

hotmail.com · 13-11-2019 11:32pm

Latest polls tonight continue to show support rising for the 2 main parties.

It can't be 2017 all over again?

FrancieBrady · 13-11-2019 11:32pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In 2017 they counted overnight, like the UK.

Must be the Referendum we had to wait on.

briany · 13-11-2019 11:33pm

What has to happen in order for any kind of Labour-led government to be possible? Where do Labour have a chance at picking up seats? Where do the Conservatives have a chance of losing them? Is there a by-constituency poll which would give a clearer picture of the electoral battle and where things could go wrong or right for either of the main parties?

liamtech · 13-11-2019 11:37pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

As strange as it may sound, I hope the Tories get a massive majority e.g. 80 or more, so that they can ignore the ERG types.

The Johnson deal is basically the May deal with a permanent backstop (or the front stop, or the permastop, or whatever people are calling it).

This is the best outcome for Ireland short of the UK staying in the EU.

I dont see how a remain majority can possibly win as the UK are stuck in the Tory v Labour duopoly.

Labour are utterly reprensible. Kier Starmer on Piers Morgan may have been ambushed and the Tories may have falsely edited the footage as a meme, but what shouldnt be lost is that Labours policy is:
1. Have another referendum;
2. Show absolutely no leadership or opinion either way;
3. Somehow use 1. and 2. above to agree a deal with the EU for which they have absolutely no concrete plans as tk what it looks like;
4. Whenever any kind of concrete proposal arises, it splits the party. So just keep talking about how wonderful its all going to be at some unspecified point in the future.

Crazy that Labour are worse than the Tories kn Brexit but there ya go.

Hopefully SNP sweep the board in Scotland, and Lib Dems do better than expected. But for all our sakes wed better hope that Labour support collapses. If it doesnt, its either a hung parliament or labour coalition, both of which options will lead to another 3-5 yeads of Brexit wheel spinning

I would still take the chance of a second referendum, even after Corbyn's Ludicrous renegotiation fence sitting, over a Brexit. The second ref gives the real chance that all of this can be called a halt to -

I worry about Boris's Deal in terms of the Unionist/Loyalist position - and whether it is fueling the fire against a return to power sharing - the usual tact from the Unionists of blaming everyone but themselves, or the Torys of course; but there is a danger that the BREXIT DEAL NI segment becomes the DUP's 'Irish Language Act' - namely that NI staying within the CU/CM permanently is the reason they wont go into Mandatory Coalition- unless Nationalists agree to vote with them as the deal says, and leave

But again, i just hope maybe Labour will try and co-operate with remain parties - not looking good

Joe_ Public · 13-11-2019 11:37pm

Danzy wrote: »

How to square appealing to young cosmopolitans who want a position on migration that was even too radically free market for Thatcher but decide calling it solidarity or Internationalism makes it compatible with welfare state, public housing, unions, workers rights etc.

Can't be done.

Labour hasn't an idea who it represents or even a coherent and unified vision.

Well, i wouldnt go along with that fully but there is a certain amount of truth there alright. Uk society is fragmenting and the whole broad church party thing, just about manageable at the best of times, is taking a kicking. Unless just a brexit hiatus, tories pretty much given up on it. PR system badly needed.

Strazdas · 13-11-2019 11:49pm

briany wrote: »

What has to happen in order for any kind of Labour-led government to be possible? Where do Labour have a chance at picking up seats? Where do the Conservatives have a chance of losing them? Is there a by-constituency poll which would give a clearer picture of the electoral battle and where things could go wrong or right for either of the main parties?

Virtually anything that leaves the Tories short of a majority increases the chances.

You could have a multi party coalition with Labour as the biggest party or even a 'confidence and supply' arrangement which makes Corbyn PM.

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 12:25am

briany wrote: »

What has to happen in order for any kind of Labour-led government to be possible? Where do Labour have a chance at picking up seats? Where do the Conservatives have a chance of losing them? Is there a by-constituency poll which would give a clearer picture of the electoral battle and where things could go wrong or right for either of the main parties?

Lot of sites with good constituency maps like this one:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50349111

Tories will lose seats in scotland and in south of England (recall johnson basically writing off guildford a while back). Labour could make more ground in london, but success will depend on fighting off the tory challenge in midlands and north. Watching johnson bumbling his way round Yorkshire today, getting short shrift will certainly have lifted spirits as those are kind of people johnson needs to win over to have hope of majority.

Magic number for labour would be around 270-275. They could form gov with that but would be good performance to get it.

Letwin_Larry · 14-11-2019 12:55am

hotmail.com wrote: »

Latest polls tonight continue to show support rising for the 2 main parties.

It can't be 2017 all over again?

unsurprising tbh.
there are only 2 people who can be PM at the end of this, but the Lib Dems doing quite well in the polls also.

Rjd2 · 14-11-2019 1:10am

Strazdas wrote: »

Virtually anything that leaves the Tories short of a majority increases the chances.

You could have a multi party coalition with Labour as the biggest party or even a 'confidence and supply' arrangement which makes Corbyn PM.

Swinson will be under serious pressure to demand the head of Corbyn in such a scenario. People don't quite grasp the bad blood between those who fled Labour to join the Lib Dems such as Berger and across the party ranks. Obviously the Tory defectors will not want Jez as PM.

She's set herself up for a fall saying she won't go into government with either Boris or Jez, because their is no other way into power.

Ideally for Corbyn, a majority or something with the SNP would be less of a headache than having to placate Swinson.

Bannasidhe · 14-11-2019 1:26am

liamtech wrote: »

Id be very curious to get your opinion on scotland

My own thesis would be that the SNP would win the majority of seats. For the reason that
The behavior of the Scottish Tory's in the HOC, and of the Tory's in general, has been incredibly provocative towards the SNP. Even if not a nationalist, Scottish people will have noted that and i could see the Torys losing their seats (FPTP means only a few percent is enough in many of the seats too so)

Labour seemed to lose their edge in Scotland since about 2010

As for Swinson's seat - that is gonna be VERY interesting indeed

I think with Davidson gone the Tories will struggle, their only hope are the relatively few Leave voters - especially those who also want to remain in the UK. But that will come down to the distribution of those voters. Against that is an ingrained dislike of the Tories in Scotland. Davidson bucked the trend there.

I expect to see a very strong SNP performance. Tbh, they are the party who have impressed me most in the HoC.
Swinson could be in trouble. Her Tory-Lite tendencies could go against her.

As for Labour- that is a hard one to call. They may attract the Leavers who can't stomach the Tories and feel at least with a 2nd ref they get another crack at Brexit.

Labour's main problem in Scotland is that increasingly, esp under Blair, they became seen as a party of Westminster/England and not relevant to Scotland - and the SNP outflanked them on the left. Which was not difficult when the Blairites were in control.

It all depends on if Corbyn can make the LP relevant in a Scottish context and if there is enough Pro-UK union on the left to make a difference.

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 2:08am

Nomination deadline closes 4pm today. Interesting that speculation about johnson switching from uxbridge refuses to die down. Still not convinced but if their polling figures suggested a substantial risk, guess it wouldnt be out of the question.

Rjd2 · 14-11-2019 2:40am

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Nomination deadline closes 4pm today. Interesting that speculation about johnson switching from uxbridge refuses to die down. Still not convinced but if their polling figures suggested a substantial risk, guess it wouldnt be out of the question.

Anyone creditable or remotely neutral suggesting he will switch? He would have switched months ago if he was going to.

He was re-selected by tory members a few months in his area to run so chatter about him switching was never serious or in good faith.

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 3:02am

Rjd2 wrote: »

Anyone creditable or remotely neutral suggesting he will switch? He would have switched months ago if he was going to.

He was re-selected by tory members a few months in his area to run so chatter about him switching was never serious or in good faith.

I dont know credible but jon craig on sky mentioned it on the campaign show between 9-10pm last night. Lib dem candidate has withdrawn (though may well be replaced) and johnson apparently facing a big problem with hs2 rail protests in the constituency. It doesnt seem at all likely, just i wont be astonished if it does come to pass either, thats all.

liamtech · 14-11-2019 4:06am

Rjd2 wrote: »

Anyone creditable or remotely neutral suggesting he will switch? He would have switched months ago if he was going to.

He was re-selected by tory members a few months in his area to run so chatter about him switching was never serious or in good faith.

It would damage his whole election campaign if he switched - so he probably wont

but if he does....

He should be rightly attacked on this in every single interview or debate

Any time he replies with 'what the British people want'.. or the 'British people are fed up' - he is open to attack on being a carpetbagger.

Right now anything that can be used to attack the torys should be employed - fight fire with fire - An advert could run on every station about the Conservative Carpetbagger PM, so i for one hope he does switch-

Although for the chance of watching him lose his seat

:D:D :eek:

Dyr · 14-11-2019 10:46am

I see Labour *edit* are deciding on whether to add an open borders policy to their election manifesto that's on a scale unheard of

That's them done for anyway. Johnson Brexit it is.

quokula · 14-11-2019 11:56am

Rjd2 wrote: »

Anyone creditable or remotely neutral suggesting he will switch? He would have switched months ago if he was going to.

He was re-selected by tory members a few months in his area to run so chatter about him switching was never serious or in good faith.

Small point but it's not really "his area" - I lived there when he was parachuted in back in 2015 because it was a safe Tory seat. He then lost more than half of his majority at the last election so it's no longer quite so safe.

Anecdotal but most of my neighbours there were English pensioners, true blue Tory types, but they dislike Boris because of Heathrow and there's a mixture of feelings on Brexit (it's easy to forget there are still a lot of remainers among the core Tory vote).

I fully expected him to switch constituency back when the election was first announced, but hard to imagine it happening now as it would be too big a story. Plus I'd imagine most people in the area who've been turned off Boris already switched in 2017 so he probably has a relatively stable core voter base there now.

Bannasidhe · 14-11-2019 12:06pm

The BBC are leading with how NHS A&E waiting times are 'worst ever', and the highest ever number of people waiting for routine operations.
This is 'good' news for Labour.

Had to laugh seeing Hancock (Health Sec) saying this shows why Corbyn needs to be stopped. Party in charge of health cluster**** says it will be worse if the lot who haven't been in charge get in.

Professor Moriarty · 14-11-2019 12:08pm

Farage to announce a Tory pact any moment now.

lawred2 · 14-11-2019 12:10pm

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The BBC are leading with how NHS A&E waiting times are 'worst ever', and the highest ever number of people waiting for routine operations.
This is 'good' news for Labour.

Had to laugh seeing Hancock (Health Sec) saying this shows why Corbyn needs to be stopped. Party in charge of health cluster**** says it will be worse if the lot who haven't been in charge get in.

we've made complete sh!t of the economy and we are intent on making things infinitely worse

but Labour over there - who haven't been in government for a decade - they are going to be worse than us on the economy *

just believe us...

* one has to ask - whose economy do they speak of? It's not the average British person

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 12:17pm

Johnson has to be in trouble in uxbridge. I did see it pointed out that the conservatives had even listed it as a vulnerable seat. Maybe they're confident they'll still win it but:

Heathrow runway issue - extinction rebellion plans to whip up opposition against him on his ambiguous policy.

HS2 - goes through constituency and big opposition to it.

Student vote - brunel university population of 15k, a potential game changer if labour manages to mobilise it. Even 5k could be decisive.

Bit of a complicating factor that the labour candidate has an issue with past Antisemitic remarks. Hardly ideal though not exactly as if johnson is in a position to take the high moral ground on that.

Will be interesting to see how much of Johnson we see on the local campaign trail. Have a feeling he will be very busy elsewhere!

BonnieSituation · 14-11-2019 12:25pm

liamtech wrote: »

I hope you are all correct - just to make that clear i genuinely do - I just worry that the opposition will remain in opposition, despite more than 50% of the electorate voting for them - and the torys will have a majority

Time will tell. Btw i will be staying up for results night - all argument and disagreement aside, anyone else planning on it???

Perhaps we could set up a separate thread and discuss the results as they come in:)

Northern Ireland results will be fascinating for me in particular

The North and Scotland are always my main interests.

And like every election of any hue I will have it on overnight.

Bannasidhe · 14-11-2019 12:33pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Johnson has to be in trouble in uxbridge. I did see it pointed out that the conservatives had even listed it as a vulnerable seat. Maybe they're confident they'll still win it but:

Heathrow runway issue - extinction rebellion plans to whip up opposition against him on his ambiguous policy.

HS2 - goes through constituency and big opposition to it.

Student vote - brunel university population of 15k, a potential game changer if labour manages to mobilise it. Even 5k could be decisive.

Bit of a complicating factor that the labour candidate has an issue with past Antisemitic remarks. Hardly ideal though not exactly as if johnson is in a position to take the high moral ground on that.

Will be interesting to see how much of Johnson we see on the local campaign trail. Have a feeling he will be very busy elsewhere!

As a matter of interest I had a look to see if a PM had ever lost their seat in the UK.
Yes is the answer, but only once.
1906, Arthur Balfour in Manchester East when the Tories took a drubbing. The CP lost 246 seats.
Even then, technically Balfour was not a 'sitting' PM, having stood down the month before.
The incoming govt was the last majority Whig gov, and that election also saw Labour become a genuine contender - it's seats increased from 2 to 29.

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 12:34pm

"Only the liberal democrats stand a realistic chance of taking seats from the conservatives which is necessary to deprive boris johnson of any majority and to guarantee a new parliament in which the arithmetic will deliver a peoples vote."

Just heard chuka umunna say this at a LD launch. I suppose its positive he's dropping the revoke thing, but what he's saying cannot be right. They cannot believe that. It doesnt make sense.

LuckyLloyd · 14-11-2019 12:36pm

He’s not in trouble in Uxbridge lads. They’ll have done their internal polling and would have switched him if there was an issue.

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 12:37pm

Bannasidhe wrote: »

As a matter of interest I had a look to see if a PM had ever lost their seat in the UK.
Yes is the answer, but only once.
1906, Arthur Balfour in Manchester East when the Tories took a drubbing. The CP lost 246 seats.
Even then, technically Balfour was not a 'sitting' PM, having stood down the month before.
The incoming govt was the last majority Whig gov, and that election also saw Labour become a genuine contender - it's seats increased from 2 to 29.

Yeah that's right. It will still literally be the first time its ever happened so history very heavily against it.

LuckyLloyd · 14-11-2019 12:38pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

"Only the liberal democrats stand a realistic chance of taking seats from the conservatives which is necessary to deprive boris johnson of any majority and to guarantee a new parliament in which the arithmetic will deliver a peoples vote."

Just heard chuka umunna say this at a LD launch. I suppose its positive he's dropping the revoke thing, but what he's saying cannot be right. They cannot believe that. It doesnt make sense.

If you want a referendum on deal vs remain, vote Labour. They have a chance to lead a government which will deliver that, the Lib Dem’s don’t.

Professor Moriarty · 14-11-2019 12:47pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Farage to announce a Tory pact any moment now.

And.....I'm wrong.

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 12:52pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

If you want a referendum on deal vs remain, vote Labour. They have a chance to lead a government which will deliver that, the Lib Dem’s don’t.

Well, not exactly. If second referendum is your top priority then you vote for the party best placed to deliver it.

Issue for lib dems is their extreme hostility towards corbyn and determination to keep him from power is not compatible with its principle aim of stopping brexit.

BonnieSituation · 14-11-2019 12:55pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

He’s not in trouble in Uxbridge lads. They’ll have done their internal polling and would have switched him if there was an issue.

They couldn't really move him either. If they moved him it would have seen a massive collapse in the vote nationwide.

He'll still win. But I can see the majority being cut.

liamtech · 14-11-2019 1:00pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And.....I'm wrong.

Technically you are wrong - but i noticed he made no mention of the unite to remain crowd in that press conference - he just kept saying that TBP will run against Labour seats

Which could mean the Brexit Party WONT run where there is a sitting Lib Dem, Green, or Plaid candidate - and where the Unite to Remain Pact is in force

In other words a constituency that would look like this

Tory
The Brexit Party
Labour
Green
Lib Dem - Incumbant
Plaid

So in this hypothetical constituency, the Remain vote is CLEARLY split, thanks to Labour not joining Unite for Remain - while the leave vote would be very much unified

Thats what i think he is heading for - not confirmed - speculation based on his choice of words but the BEEB presenter highlighted that 3 times he said TBP, not running against tory seats, but will ABSOLUTELY run against Labour - (didnt mention remain pact seats LD/GREEN/PLAID et al - one could assume he will not run against Dominic Grieve too)

EDIT - trying to find more info on this but cant - could be a nonsense

EDIT - OK Looks like a NONSENSE! seems he clarified himself that he will not be sanding down any more seats

Farage can be very clear sometimes, but at other times he is very ambiguous

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-live-nigel-farage-urged-to-pull-more-brexit-party-candidates-as-deadline-day-a4286751.html

Apologies for that, it was the Beeb that seemed to suggest a change in BP policy - we will know for sure at 4 o clock

Professor Moriarty · 14-11-2019 1:03pm

Hilarious to hear a right wing populist like Farage complaining about the "abuse" his candidates are receiving. Pot, kettle, black.

quokula · 14-11-2019 1:03pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

He’s not in trouble in Uxbridge lads. They’ll have done their internal polling and would have switched him if there was an issue.

This is likely true. While his margin isn't that large, this is after losing a large majority in 2017 in what was previously a very safe seat.

It's likely that the majority of people who would switch to Labour there already have done.

quokula · 14-11-2019 1:07pm

liamtech wrote: »

Technically you are wrong - but i noticed he made no mention of the unite to remain crowd in that press conference - he just kept saying that TBP will run against Labour seats

Which could mean the Brexit Party WONT run where there is a sitting Lib Dem, Green, or Plaid candidate - and where the Unite to Remain Pact is in force

In other words a constituency that would look like this

Tory
The Brexit Party
Labour
Green
Lib Dem
Plaid

So in this hypothetical constituency, the Remain vote is CLEARLY split, thanks to Labour not joining Unite for Remain - while the leave vote would be very much unified

Thats what i think he is heading for - not confirmed - speculation based on his choice of words but the BEEB presenter highlighted that 3 times he said TBP, not running against tory seats, but will ABSOLUTELY run against Labour - (didnt mention remain pact seats LD/GREEN/PLAID et al - one could assume he will not run against Dominic Grieve too)

He said they wouldn't run in seats the Tories won in 2017. Not seats held by Tories now. Considering a bunch of the Lib Dems actually were Tories in 2017 that means he won't be running against them (though I don't know if they're being moved to different constituencies next time) - the actual number of Lib Dems who won seats in 2017 was so small that it probably wasn't worth discussing, so I doubt he's trying to implicitly say anything by only focussing on Labour. He's focussing on Labour because they're the only party that can stop Brexit.

liamtech · 14-11-2019 1:09pm

quokula wrote: »

He said they wouldn't run in seats the Tories won in 2017. Not seats held by Tories now. Considering a bunch of the Lib Dems actually were Tories in 2017 that means he won't be running against them (though I don't know if they're being moved to different constituencies next time) - the actual number of Lib Dems who won seats in 2017 was so small that it probably wasn't worth discussing, so I doubt he's trying to implicitly say anything by only focussing on Labour. He's focussing on Labour because they're the only party that can stop Brexit.

Well in that hypothetical seat its an incumbent of one of the LD, Green, et al Unite to Remain - or a seat where the pact is being enforced - so that would give the Tories an advantage

EDIT - OK Looks like a NONSENSE! seems he clarified himself that he will not be sanding down any more seats

Farage can be very clear sometimes, but at other times he is very ambiguous

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4286751.html

Apologies for that, it was the Beeb that seemed to suggest a change in BP policy - we will know for sure at 4 o clock

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 1:15pm

Matt Hancock and conservative response to dreadful nhs statistics:

"These figures show just how important it is that we stop jeremy corbyn."

You just really have to laugh. When will uk voters wake up and realise they're being trolled. Just shows how a brexit election is so not good for opposition.

lawred2 · 14-11-2019 1:26pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Matt Hancock and conservative response to dreadful nhs statistics:

"These figures show just how important it is that we stop jeremy corbyn."

You just really have to laugh. When will uk voters wake up and realise they're being trolled. Just shows how a brexit election is so not good for opposition.

I presume he was met with a follow up question as to how it showed such a thing?

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 1:29pm

lawred2 wrote: »

I presume he was met with a follow up question as to how it showed such a thing?

No, just a raised eyebrow from andrew neil on politics live. Hancock isnt actually in the studio, qoute was just flashed up on screen.

Edit: should point out that neil corrected that it was a conservative hq response not hancock personally. But still.

Also said that on a show where the two main topics were nhs and flooding, the tories somehow couldnt find a single candidate with time enough to appear.

Rjd2 · 14-11-2019 1:47pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

They couldn't really move him either. If they moved him it would have seen a massive collapse in the vote nationwide.

He'll still win. But I can see the majority being cut.

They would also be throwing away a winnable seat unless they somehow had a more appealing Tory in the wings. When you look at London and Scotland they can't be doing that.

He should win it, but Labour have made a serious effort to unseat him their so it could be close at least. He and Swinson the last time I checked were similar odds to hold their seats...2/7 or so. Pretty wild that.:o

Professor Moriarty · 14-11-2019 1:56pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

They would also be throwing away a winnable seat unless they somehow had a more appealing Tory in the wings. When you look at London and Scotland they can't be doing that.

He should win it, but Labour have made a serious effort to unseat him their so it could be close at least. He and Swinson the last time I checked were similar odds to hold their seats...2/7 or so. Pretty wild that.:o

He's 1/10 to retain his seat. Bookies think he'll definitely be re-elected.

Joe_ Public · 14-11-2019 2:13pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's 1/10 to retain his seat. Bookies think he'll definitely be re-elected.

Thats just a bookies odds pricers view, though, not a reflection of what any money might suggest, i would argue. Its only small money but on the exchanges i notice johnson has traded low as 1/5 but as high as 2/5. Thats bets actually laid. Yes, he's clear favourite but as a sitting pm, thats not very clearcut. Bit like clinton in 2016, i can see it start to switch against him over course of campaign. Probably not enough but could be close.

robinph · 14-11-2019 2:22pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Thats just a bookies odds pricers view, though, not a reflection of what any money might suggest, i would argue. Its only small money but on the exchanges i notice johnson has traded low as 1/5 but as high as 2/5. Thats bets actually laid. Yes, he's clear favourite but as a sitting pm, thats not very clearcut. Bit like clinton in 2016, i can see it start to switch against him over course of campaign. Probably not enough but could be close.

He'll probably be saved by standing against dolphins, raving loony party and Lord Buckethead which will take a few votes that might otherwise go to an actual candidate with a chance.

Rjd2 · 14-11-2019 2:54pm

robinph wrote: »

He'll probably be saved by standing against dolphins, raving loony party and Lord Buckethead which will take a few votes that might otherwise go to an actual candidate with a chance.

Are the Monster Raving Loony party not more right wing though?

Professor Moriarty · 14-11-2019 2:54pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Thats just a bookies odds pricers view, though, not a reflection of what any money might suggest, i would argue. Its only small money but on the exchanges i notice johnson has traded low as 1/5 but as high as 2/5. Thats bets actually laid. Yes, he's clear favourite but as a sitting pm, thats not very clearcut. Bit like clinton in 2016, i can see it start to switch against him over course of campaign. Probably not enough but could be close.

Well 1/10 is a pretty decisive indicator, much and all as I'd like to see him lose. Anyway, Corbyn's unpopularity will save him. Any Tories who might be considering not voting for him will hold their nose and vote Johnson lest Corbyn becomes PM.

BonnieSituation · 14-11-2019 3:50pm

This is not a parody:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1194377557405261824?s=09

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How can anyone take this guy seriously?

"Yeah, but Corbyn..."

General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

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