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Northern Ireland Westminster General Election

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24567…39

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    #32
    Nidgeweasel
    Registered Users Posts: 2,621 ✭✭✭Nidgeweasel


    Bass Reeves wrote: »

    In the interest of NI and the Irish people in general should the SF stand aside

    Why?

    Abstentionism is a legitimate concept for which SF have a mandate.

    The more seats they win the better.


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    #33
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,248 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    The electorate have already said who they want to represent them. The SDLP have been cast aside for a reason - because they always settled for much less than what was required.

    Would the NI electorate trust them again - I don't think so.

    SF adopted a stand aside policy for a single event - Brexit. Because Brexit will affect the entire island.
    There is no doubt that FG and FF have more or less passed muster on how they have played it.
    FG dropped their objections to special status for NI and adopted what was recommended by the NI parties - SF and the SDLP.

    As long as they did that, then Dublin was the best voice to be heard for us all here on this island.

    Special status for Northern Ireland was always a lesser target. A full single market and customs union was always a better outcome for this island.

    SF set their sights lower than anyone else. FG set their sights on a far higher outcome but while getting close with May's deal, ended up having to settle for the less ambitious SF position.


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    #34
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,248 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Nidgeweasel wrote: »
    Why?

    Abstentionism is a legitimate concept for which SF have a mandate.

    The more seats they win the better.


    That is fair enough.

    However, if you are someone who voted Remain in Northern Ireland in 2016, you are best served if you elect an MP who will take their seat in Westminister and fight Boris' deal.


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    #35
    careless sherpa
    Closed Accounts Posts: 373 ✭✭careless sherpa


    Bambi wrote: »
    Did he mention the Average industrial wage? :D

    Dessie wouldn't be the sharpest tool in the box

    Sharp enough when it comes to electronics


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    #36
    rockatansky
    Registered Users Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭rockatansky


    Berserker wrote: »
    Would be fantastic if people from NI started voting for other parties but I just can't see that happening. SF could sit on the sidelines for the next twenty years and people from a republican background will still vote for them.

    You're very much mistaken if you think it's only people with a Republican background vote for them.

    Unless you're following the good old Loyalist deluded sense of reasoning that all Catholics/nationalist = Republican.


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    #37
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,248 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    rockatansky wrote: »
    You're very much mistaken if you think it's only people with a Republican background vote for them.

    Unless you're following the good old Loyalist deluded sense of reasoning that all Catholics/nationalist = Republican.

    People in the middle are more likely to vote Alliance, PBP, Greens or SDLP ahead of Sinn Fein.

    Sinn Fein's appeal is to hard-core nationalists, not to those interested in a future of compromise.


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    #38
    manbitesdog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 91 ✭✭manbitesdog


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Special status for Northern Ireland was always a lesser target. A full single market and customs union was always a better outcome for this island.

    SF set their sights lower than anyone else. FG set their sights on a far higher outcome but while getting close with May's deal, ended up having to settle for the less ambitious SF position.

    The proposal for all of the UK to remain in the Customs Union and aligned with SM was not something that was targeted by Fine Gael; it was a concession the EU made to May, but which hardline Brexiters spun as the EU trapping GB.

    Dublin’s aim was simply to uphold the GFA and ensure no hard border. As it happens, an All-UK backstop would have been an even better outcome from an Irish perspective, but that was just incidental. The EU’s preference was for an NI-only solution.


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    #39
    rockatansky
    Registered Users Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭rockatansky


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Sinn Fein's appeal is to hard-core nationalists, not to those interested in a future of compromise.

    Hardcore nationalists? Utter nonsense.


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    #40
    SharpshooterTom
    Registered Users Posts: 3,017 ✭✭✭SharpshooterTom


    Northern Ireland has 18 of the 650 Westminster seats. DUP have 10, Sinn Fein 7, and Independent Unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon (who is a remainer). The DUP have maximised their seat count largely to due to running electoral pacts (which some see as sectarian) with the UUP who agreed to step aside in certain tight seats to stop a nationalist winning. DUP have 3 out of the 4 Belfast seats, North, South and East, but required an electoral pact in North Belfast in order to win there. The general election 2017 results were:

    North Belfast
    DUP - Nigel Dodds - 21,240 - 46.2%
    Sinn Féin - John Finucane - 19,159 - 41.7%
    Alliance - Sam Nelson - 2,475 - 5.4%
    SDLP - Martin McAuley - 2,058 - 4.5%
    Green (NI) - Malachi O'Hara - 644 - 1.4%
    Workers' Party - Gemma Weir - 360 - 0.8%

    South Belfast
    DUP - Emma Little-Pengelly - 13,299 - 30.4%
    SDLP - Alasdair McDonnell - 11,303 - 25.9%
    Alliance - Paula Bradshaw - 7,946 - 18.2%
    Sinn Féin - Máirtín Ó Muilleoir - 7,143 - 16.3%
    Green (NI) - Clare Bailey - 2,241 - 5.1%
    UUP Michael Henderson - 1,527 - 3.5%
    NI Conservatives Clare Salier - 246 - 0.6%

    East Belfast
    DUP - Gavin Robinson - 23,917 - 55.8%
    Alliance - Naomi Long - 15,443 - 36.0%
    UUP Hazel Legge - 1,408 - 3.3%
    Sinn Féin - Mairéad O'Donnell - 894 - 2.1%
    Green (NI) - Georgina Milne - 561 - 1.3%
    NI Conservatives - Sheila Bodel - 446 - 1.0%
    SDLP - Séamas de Faoite - 167 - 0.4%
    Independent - Bobby Beck - 54 - 0.1%

    The SDLP resisted any attempts to run pacts with Sinn Fein citing it didn't want to engage in sectarian politics, so the nationalist vote was split in all 18 seats. However there has been some developments with new UUP leader Steve Aiken, who is a remainer and an opponent of Johnsons deal, is looking to take his party in a new direction and is willing to now stand in all 18 constituencies and not engage in pacts.

    If the UUP stand in North Belfast that could be a game changer. The demographics are changing quite rapidly in Belfast with the nationalist vote increasing steadily. Unionism has resorted to pacts in North Belfast & Fermanagh and South Tyrone to combat demographic changes.

    I have to say South Belfast is the most disappointing of the lot. Emma Little-Pengelly is a really poor fit for that seat, South Belfast voted 70% remain, is the arguably most affluent area of Northern Ireland, the most diverse and multicultural and ELP scrapes in with 30% in the loyalist working class areas (Sandy Row/Village, Taughmonagh, Belvoir) which don't represent the majority of South Belfast. The remain vote is split between SDLP/Sinn Fein/Alliance/Green and now the UUP. Nationalism is badly split currently in South Belfast.

    In the East (where I'm going to be voting) Alliance won this seat in 2010 on the back of Peter Robinsons scandals but since putting fresh face Gavin Robinson (not related) they've won the seat back and increased his vote. Would like to see Alliance take this but the odds look slim.

    In North Down remainer Lady Sylvia Hermon may lose her seat this time round to the DUP so that could be a BREXIT GAIN. The DUP might lose seats with some smart tactical voting by remainers and nationalism, but equally they may gain a seat and finish with 11. Fermanagh/South Tyrone will be another battle between Sinn Fein and the UUP, but the demographics are slowly moving away from unionism there.


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    #41
    jm08
    Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    blanch152 wrote: »

    Sinn Fein's appeal is to hard-core nationalists, not to those interested in a future of compromise.


    So the SDLP lost votes to Sinn Fein because nationalists have become more hardcore since the GFA?


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    #42
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,080 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Special status for Northern Ireland was always a lesser target. A full single market and customs union was always a better outcome for this island.

    SF set their sights lower than anyone else. FG set their sights on a far higher outcome but while getting close with May's deal, ended up having to settle for the less ambitious SF position.

    I remember you been told by a lot of very informed posters on the brexit thread that a 'sea border' was the only practical solution if the UK were to Brexit. I have indeed noticed that you have pivoted away from your view that it wasn't.
    blanch152 wrote: »
    People in the middle are more likely to vote Alliance, PBP, Greens or SDLP ahead of Sinn Fein.

    Sinn Fein's appeal is to hard-core nationalists, not to those interested in a future of compromise.

    So all those people that used to vote SDLP before switching to SF were really 'hard-core' nationalists all along? Interesting.


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    #43
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,850 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Its not if, its how many. Pengelly is gone unless there is an absolute and utter vote split disaster; in which case she'll be a record books entry for the lowest % vote to get elected with.


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    #44
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,080 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    jm08 wrote: »
    So the SDLP lost votes to Sinn Fein because nationalists have become more hardcore since the GFA?

    Snap. :)


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    #45
    darem93
    Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭darem93


    Sinn Fein came quite close to Dodds in the last election, but I'm not sure if they'd be able to unseat him this time around. I'd love to see it though.

    I also really hope Pengelly loses her seat in South Belfast. I was literally cringing to see her kicking up such a big fuss about the naming of a bus stop. She definitely only got in last time because of how split the vote was.


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    #46
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,210 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    IAmTheReign wrote: »
    I would argue that Dublin is the only voice for everyone on the island right now. With Stormont not sitting and SF boycotting Westminster SF standing aside to let FG speak for them is less a masterstroke of political planning and more to do with them being sidelined throughout the whole Brexit process.

    Lets be real here, this GE will be fought over Brexit. It is still the biggest issue in UK (and Irish) politics. It was okay for them to stand aside and let someone else negotiate for NI for the last 3 years, why is it different when an election is called over the issue?

    What exactly are SF going to say when they're out canvassing and they're asked about Brexit? We're against it, but we'd rather let someone else fight it for us?

    We all know they won't stand aside and we all know it doesn't really matter what they tell their voters. The same people who voted for them at the last election will vote for them again this election. That doesn't change the fact that they're doing nothing to help the very people who voted for them.

    SF suffered in the local and EU elections last summer.Some in SF are trying to hide it as a leadership issue. However outside of hardcore SF many think there bringing down of the NI assembly, there MP not voting in westminister hurt them.

    After the GF agreement SF vote rose sharply in NI, Many of these are not hardcore SF voters. I suspecthamany will shift there vote. However the catch now for SF is Leo has ruled out an election before Christmas. If after the election the Brexit side of UK politics wins by only a small number of MP and SF could have changed the outcome it will suffer in the next election in both north and south.
    Nidgeweasel wrote: »
    Why?

    Abstentionism is a legitimate concept for which SF have a mandate.

    The more seats they win the better.

    In theory yes but Brexit could knock gains over the last 20 years in NI. Many think the number of seats that will determine the outcome of Brexit will be less than 10-20 votes. The NI MP's could be crucial and be enough for a second referendum in the UK

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #47
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,080 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    SF suffered in the local and EU elections last summer.Some in SF are trying to hide it as a leadership issue. However outside of hardcore SF many think there bringing down of the NI assembly, there MP not voting in westminister hurt them.

    After the GF agreement SF vote rose sharply in NI, Many of these are not hardcore SF voters. I suspecthamany will shift there vote. However the catch now for SF is Leo has ruled out an election before Christmas. If after the election the Brexit side of UK politics wins by only a small number of MP and SF could have changed the outcome it will suffer in the next election in both north and south.



    In theory yes but Brexit could knock gains over the last 20 years in NI. Many think the number of seats that will determine the outcome of Brexit will be less than 10-20 votes. The NI MP's could be crucial and be enough for a second referendum in the UK

    You keep saying this but have as yet backed it up with nothing. SF have been abstaining from Westminster for 100 years and through far worse periods than Brexit.
    And I would think most voters in the south would have very high awareness why the Executive collapsed.

    So where is this data you are basing the above on?


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    #48
    SharpshooterTom
    Registered Users Posts: 3,017 ✭✭✭SharpshooterTom


    Colum Eastwood is running for the Foyle (Derry) to try and take back John Hume's old seat which they only lost by 169 votes last time. Derry has always been a massive SDLP stronghold bucking the SF tidal waves that's gone on in Tyrone, Armagh and Fermanagh.

    https://twitter.com/columeastwood/status/1189517017608577024
    Didn't take long though for a SF representative from Dublin to start questioning their allegiances to the Ireland and the Irish unity cause. The SF usual tactic of attacking their Irishness because they swear an oath to Queen Liz.

    https://twitter.com/PaulDonnellySF/status/1189522902586146816


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    #49
    Badabing
    Registered Users Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭Badabing


    Sinn Fein should give SDLP a free run in South Belfast and vice versa in Fermanagh South Tyrone. And both shouldn't run in East Belfast. Time for Nationalists parties to cop on and get rid of the DUP in these constituencies. Alliance can take East Belfast aswell if the will on every side is there.


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    #50
    SharpshooterTom
    Registered Users Posts: 3,017 ✭✭✭SharpshooterTom


    Badabing wrote: »
    Sinn Fein should give SDLP a free run in South Belfast and vice versa in Fermanagh South Tyrone. And both shouldn't run in East Belfast. Time for Nationalists parties to cop on and get rid of the DUP in these constituencies. Alliance can take East Belfast aswell if the will on every side is there.

    If Alliance party appears in anyway to be in cahoots with nationalism to defeat unionism they'll lose their moderate unionist votes. Most of the Alliance party voters (around 70%) are from protestants so they have to be careful. They may agree with SDLP and Sinn Fein on social issues but they're not a nationalist pro UI party.


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    #51
    Badabing
    Registered Users Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭Badabing


    ThomasFlynn wrote:
    If Alliance party appears in anyway to be in cahoots with nationalism to defeat unionism they'll lose their moderate unionist votes. Most of the Alliance party voters (around 70%) are from protestants so they have to be careful. They may agree with SDLP and Sinn Fein on social issues but they're not a nationalist pro UI party.


    Agreed. But Sinn Fein in particular have absolutely no chance of winning East Belfast. All 3 parties are Remain so that will appeal to voters.


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    #52
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,080 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    ThomasFlynn wrote: »
    Colum Eastwood is running for the Foyle (Derry) to try and take back John Hume's old seat which they only lost by 169 votes last time. Derry has always been a massive SDLP stronghold bucking the SF tidal waves that's gone on in Tyrone, Armagh and Fermanagh.

    https://twitter.com/columeastwood/status/1189517017608577024
    Didn't take long though for a SF representative from Dublin to start questioning their allegiances to the Ireland and the Irish unity cause. The SF usual tactic of attacking their Irishness because they swear an oath to Queen Liz.

    https://twitter.com/PaulDonnellySF/status/1189522902586146816

    At the heart of that is the reason why people defected away in huge numbers from the SDLP.
    SDLP have always had their own interests at heart and not the Irish National interests.

    It isn't me or you the SDLP have to convince otherwise, it is their own electorate.

    In saying that I think Eastwood will do ok, might even take that seat and maybe Claire Hanna.
    They aren't tainted by the conflict SDLP.


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    #53
    SharpshooterTom
    Registered Users Posts: 3,017 ✭✭✭SharpshooterTom


    Badabing wrote: »
    Agreed. But Sinn Fein in particular have absolutely no chance of winning East Belfast. All 3 parties are Remain so that will appeal to voters.

    The combined vote share between SDLP/Sinn Fein in East Belfast was 2.5%, not really signficant, it would be a bigger net negative for the Alliance if they both pulled out to make the Alliance Party look like another nationalist party to a consituency which is nearly 90% protestant.

    I'll be voting Alliance in East Belfast anyway, but I don't have much hope for them to overturn 8.5k votes.


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    #54
    Lefty Bicek
    Registered Users Posts: 1,625 ✭✭✭Lefty Bicek


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    Should SF step back from this ekwction. As there MP will not take there seats and use there votes in Westminster should they give the SDLP and the Alliance party a clear run. These votes could be crucial in the next Parliament and could swing many votes on Brexit. These seats could be a counter balance to the DUP.

    In the interest of NI and the Irish people in general should the SF stand aside

    A bit condescending to the NI electorate, surely ?

    All of the parties you mentioned stood in the last election, and will do so again no doubt.

    SF campaigned on an abstentionist ticket and the people voted as they did.

    They are free to do the same again, fully aware of what abstentionism has meant so far.


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    #55
    Badabing
    Registered Users Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭Badabing


    Yeah agreed its a tall order for the Alliance party, long in the last 2 elections got between 15 and 17 thousand votes. So she needs another 7 thousand at least to get in. Possible with a clear run but very hard.


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    #56
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,248 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    I remember you been told by a lot of very informed posters on the brexit thread that a 'sea border' was the only practical solution if the UK were to Brexit. I have indeed noticed that you have pivoted away from your view that it wasn't.


    I never said it wasn't a practical solution, I said it was a poor solution.

    I was clear all along that a sea border was better for Ireland than a land border, but that a sea border was worse for Northern Ireland than a land border.

    However, either border option was far worse than the backstop idea, which was worse than a soft Brexit involving remaining in the Single Market and the Customs Union, which was worse than Brexit being cancelled.

    Of all the options, the two types of border were vying for worst option on any list. Anyone like yourself who is celebrating a sea border as some kind of good outcome is seriously deluded.


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    #57
    BarryD2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭BarryD2


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    As the SF rep on the debate last night said: Where exactly has 'representation and even power in Westminster got the DUP when Britain decides to act in it's selfish interests?

    The SF electorate obviously know/believe that seats in Westminster amount to very little in the scheme of things.

    Well I wasn't just referring to Westminster.


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    #58
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,478 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Mod note:

    Threads merged and name changed


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    #59
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,080 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I never said it wasn't a practical solution, I said it was a poor solution.

    I was clear all along that a sea border was better for Ireland than a land border, but that a sea border was worse for Northern Ireland than a land border.

    However, either border option was far worse than the backstop idea, which was worse than a soft Brexit involving remaining in the Single Market and the Customs Union, which was worse than Brexit being cancelled.

    Of all the options, the two types of border were vying for worst option on any list. Anyone like yourself who is celebrating a sea border as some kind of good outcome is seriously deluded.

    They were all 'poor' solutions.
    Your criticisms and the criticisms of the DUP of a sea border have been debunked by the business and farming interests in NI.
    The same interests have welcomed the current deal as the best they could get.

    The DUP still stand alone objecting to it. Do you object to it if the UK actually Brexit?


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    #60
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,248 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    They were all 'poor' solutions.
    Your criticisms and the criticisms of the DUP of a sea border have been debunked by the business and farming interests in NI.
    The same interests have welcomed the current deal as the best they could get.

    The DUP still stand alone objecting to it. Do you object to it if the UK actually Brexit?


    We are arguing over which is the worst and second-worst outcome to Brexit.

    I also said that if we got to the stage where those were the two options, it was a really bad outcome for this island. Do you agree?


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    #61
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,248 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    SF suffered in the local and EU elections last summer.Some in SF are trying to hide it as a leadership issue. However outside of hardcore SF many think there bringing down of the NI assembly, there MP not voting in westminister hurt them.

    After the GF agreement SF vote rose sharply in NI, Many of these are not hardcore SF voters. I suspecthamany will shift there vote. However the catch now for SF is Leo has ruled out an election before Christmas. If after the election the Brexit side of UK politics wins by only a small number of MP and SF could have changed the outcome it will suffer in the next election in both north and south.


    Sinn Fein have lost votes in the last few elections, both North and South.

    You won't get any of their representatives on here to admit that they are worried about those trends, but them's the facts.


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