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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

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24567…69

Comments

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    #32
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Think I might head down to my house in West cork so if this is the case!

    If this is the case. Your house might come to you :)


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    #33
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    If the 00Z matches this there'll be red warnings issued for swathes of the country (probably all of Munster and Connacht) in the morning.

    The 12Z could simply be off its rocker but two runs in a row with only one left behind it before the event isn't enough time for people to prepare.


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    #34
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Reckless Abandonment wrote: »
    If this is the case. Your house might come to you :)

    Lol


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    #35
    AndrewJRenko
    Registered Users Posts: 28,372 ✭✭✭✭AndrewJRenko


    SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »
    If it moves east towards Dublin it might even get a mention in the news

    Is there any safe outdoor location in the Dublin area that would allow you to see the storm first hand, without creating any risk of danger to yourself or anyone else?


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    #36
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Seems pretty quiet on here despite this apparent huge windstorm coming our way!


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    #37
    aisling86
    Registered Users Posts: 584 ✭✭✭aisling86


    leahyl wrote: »
    Seems pretty quiet on here despite this apparent huge windstorm coming our way!

    I dont think people are over the shock just yet!


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    #38
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    aisling86 wrote: »
    I dont think people are over the shock just yet!

    Or everybody is too busy giving out about Covid restrictions and haven’t noticed....


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    #39
    dzsfah2xoynme9
    Closed Accounts Posts: 326 ✭✭dzsfah2xoynme9


    Orange wind warning now..


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    #40
    Xenji
    Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford
    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Storm Ellen will track over Ireland on Wednesday night and during Thursday bringing a period of severe and potentially damaging winds.

    Associated heavy rain will also bring a risk of flooding.

    Due to the combination of storm surge, spring tides and onshore winds there is a potential risk of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 12:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

    Issued: 20:00 Tuesday 18/08/2020


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    #41
    lilydonoghue
    Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭lilydonoghue


    Reckless Abandonment wrote: »
    If this is the case. Your house might come to you :)

    That’s very funny


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    #42
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I am very surprised the ICON not showing this as the others. Even the Australian and Chinese model have it , Australian more like the ECM and GEM also like the ECM if not quite as strong. GFS has missed this one so far.


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    #43
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    pad199207 wrote: »
    ‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

    Didn't this happen before LOL!!


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    #44
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Some insane rain showing for Cork on rain predictive radar on met.ie


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    #45
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Any thoughts on thunderstorm potential with this?


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    #46
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Thurs and Fri have there own rough weather conditions to contend with. LP parked off the W, which seems to deepen before filling slowly, sending in fronts and short waves. Again this is not tied down, the models are all showing different scenarios with some severe wind close shaves, so will need to keep a close eye on it , ICON goes on to show very strong winds on Thurs in the SW.


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    #47
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Any thoughts on thunderstorm potential with this?




    Weds into Thurs could have some Thundery bursts, good lapse rates in the SW perhaps and most importantly Deep Layer Shear and frontal forcing not to mention Low level shear.

    Thurs post front looks very unstable and could be a fair scattering of thunderstorms just about anywhere. Again decent enough preliminary lapse rates and tons of DLS with part of the Jet over us. Perhaps some funnels or weak tornadoes but these are rare.


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    #48
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1295809982789804034?s=20

    Looks like the higher res models have the East coast getting the brunt of it! Nothing finalised yet


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    #49
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Very interesting, cheers Meteorite.


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    #50
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Glasnevin are going to be up all night with this.


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    #51
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    With the leaves still on trees could cause problems with trees and lines going down


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    #52
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1295787105118048263?s=20

    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1295811147107631112?s=20


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    #53
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,438 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    pad199207 wrote: »
    ‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

    Hope michael fish didn't answer.


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    #54
    whisky_galore
    Registered Users Posts: 15,744 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Oh fk you 2020.
    When is the locust plague due?


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    #55
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,438 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    leahyl wrote: »
    Seems pretty quiet on here despite this apparent huge windstorm coming our way!

    Well 2020 itself has been a bit of ****storm anyway and honestly I burnt out whereas normally I'd be all over this.


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    #56
    thecretinhop
    Registered Users Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭thecretinhop


    in a weird way something 2 take our minds of covid.
    pure fkable though putting stuff in sheds again


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    #57
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,438 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Sorry lads so is this a Wednesday evening/Thursday morning job with the storm and from what meteorite58 is saying that unsettled Thursday and Friday on the back end of the big storm. Do I have that generally right ? Btw thanks for the savants in here who make sense of the charts I'm just not great at it.


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    #58
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    With rain run off and big seas coastal flooding probably going to be a problem.


    anim_tdi7.gif

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    https://www.tidetimes.org.uk/cork-city-tide-times-20200821


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    #59
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭John mac


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Sorry lads so is this a Wednesday evening/Thursday morning job with the storm and from what meteorite58 is saying that unsettled Thursday and Friday on the back end of the big storm. Do I have that generally right ? Btw thanks for the savants in here who make sense of the charts I'm just not great at it.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114347872&postcount=40


    https://www.met.ie/warnings


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    #60
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I'll believe it if I see it. Let us keep in mind that over the course of last winter and spring, the ECM in particular always overegged wind speeds during 'explosive storm' potential and not by an insignificant degree.

    New Moon



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    #61
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Not a hope is there going to be 200km/h gusts. Max I am going to say is 110 at the coasts.


This discussion has been closed.
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