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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Reckless Abandonment

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Think I might head down to my house in West cork so if this is the case!

If this is the case. Your house might come to you

sdanseo

If the 00Z matches this there'll be red warnings issued for swathes of the country (probably all of Munster and Connacht) in the morning.

The 12Z could simply be off its rocker but two runs in a row with only one left behind it before the event isn't enough time for people to prepare.

leahyl

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

If this is the case. Your house might come to you

Lol

[Deleted User]

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

If it moves east towards Dublin it might even get a mention in the news

Is there any safe outdoor location in the Dublin area that would allow you to see the storm first hand, without creating any risk of danger to yourself or anyone else?

leahyl

Seems pretty quiet on here despite this apparent huge windstorm coming our way!

aisling86

leahyl wrote: »

Seems pretty quiet on here despite this apparent huge windstorm coming our way!

I dont think people are over the shock just yet!

leahyl

aisling86 wrote: »

I dont think people are over the shock just yet!

Or everybody is too busy giving out about Covid restrictions and haven’t noticed....

dzsfah2xoynme9

Orange wind warning now..

Xenji

Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford
Met Éireann Weather Warning

Storm Ellen will track over Ireland on Wednesday night and during Thursday bringing a period of severe and potentially damaging winds.

Associated heavy rain will also bring a risk of flooding.

Due to the combination of storm surge, spring tides and onshore winds there is a potential risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 12:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 20:00 Tuesday 18/08/2020

lilydonoghue

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

If this is the case. Your house might come to you

That’s very funny

Meteorite58

I am very surprised the ICON not showing this as the others. Even the Australian and Chinese model have it , Australian more like the ECM and GEM also like the ECM if not quite as strong. GFS has missed this one so far.

igCorcaigh

pad199207 wrote: »

‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

Didn't this happen before LOL!!

leahyl

Some insane rain showing for Cork on rain predictive radar on met.ie

igCorcaigh

Any thoughts on thunderstorm potential with this?

Meteorite58

Thurs and Fri have there own rough weather conditions to contend with. LP parked off the W, which seems to deepen before filling slowly, sending in fronts and short waves. Again this is not tied down, the models are all showing different scenarios with some severe wind close shaves, so will need to keep a close eye on it , ICON goes on to show very strong winds on Thurs in the SW.

Meteorite58

Any thoughts on thunderstorm potential with this?

Weds into Thurs could have some Thundery bursts, good lapse rates in the SW perhaps and most importantly Deep Layer Shear and frontal forcing not to mention Low level shear.

Thurs post front looks very unstable and could be a fair scattering of thunderstorms just about anywhere. Again decent enough preliminary lapse rates and tons of DLS with part of the Jet over us. Perhaps some funnels or weak tornadoes but these are rare.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1295809982789804034?s=20

Looks like the higher res models have the East coast getting the brunt of it! Nothing finalised yet

igCorcaigh

Very interesting, cheers Meteorite.

pad199207

Glasnevin are going to be up all night with this.

spookwoman

With the leaves still on trees could cause problems with trees and lines going down

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1295787105118048263?s=20

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1295811147107631112?s=20

Itssoeasy

pad199207 wrote: »

‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

Hope michael fish didn't answer.

whisky_galore

Oh fk you 2020.
When is the locust plague due?

Itssoeasy

leahyl wrote: »

Seems pretty quiet on here despite this apparent huge windstorm coming our way!

Well 2020 itself has been a bit of ****storm anyway and honestly I burnt out whereas normally I'd be all over this.

thecretinhop

in a weird way something 2 take our minds of covid.
pure fkable though putting stuff in sheds again

Itssoeasy

Sorry lads so is this a Wednesday evening/Thursday morning job with the storm and from what meteorite58 is saying that unsettled Thursday and Friday on the back end of the big storm. Do I have that generally right ? Btw thanks for the savants in here who make sense of the charts I'm just not great at it.

Meteorite58

With rain run off and big seas coastal flooding probably going to be a problem.

https://www.tidetimes.org.uk/cork-city-tide-times-20200821

John mac

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Sorry lads so is this a Wednesday evening/Thursday morning job with the storm and from what meteorite58 is saying that unsettled Thursday and Friday on the back end of the big storm. Do I have that generally right ? Btw thanks for the savants in here who make sense of the charts I'm just not great at it.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114347872&postcount=40

https://www.met.ie/warnings

Oneiric 3

I'll believe it if I see it. Let us keep in mind that over the course of last winter and spring, the ECM in particular always overegged wind speeds during 'explosive storm' potential and not by an insignificant degree.

SleetAndSnow

Not a hope is there going to be 200km/h gusts. Max I am going to say is 110 at the coasts.