Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

Not like this here (live)..

The 18z GFS really went on a tear opening up the floodgates to arctic cold after Christmas. Although usually not as reliable as its other times of day, the 18z GFS would have had some benefit of late breaking data after the massive interior northeast U.S. snowstorm. That of course will anchor a cold pattern over the eastern U.S. for some time to come, probably on the whole not a positive given the usual teleconnections, but I've noticed in my research that cold in the eastern half of the U.S. and parts of eastern Canada will correlate better with west European cold the later into the winter you get. By early February there is almost a 1:1 correspondence, December is entirely random, January somewhere in between.

We won't know with much certainty how things are really going to go after the 22nd until the storm gets out into the middle of the ocean and models get a better handle on its complex evolution (already a two-part system, could break up into three parts). At least there is some optimism about wintry synoptics being in the mix at a stage of winter where you don't want to see raging zonality holding the fort, because it seems like late December sets the template for most of January in most years. Changes of pattern seem to come mostly around 21st-24th Dec and late Jan into early Feb.

Here you go Snow porn from Japan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySY9ulHi9r8

NickNickleby wrote: »

Ha! My son used to live there(its in the north of Japan), and one winter the olive oil in his kitchen cupboard FROZE. The cupboard was on an outside wall.

(I'd say it probably just solidified, but he preferred the more dramatic description)

Yeah I've spent a bit of time around there and Hokkaido, having several times the amount of usual snowfall is a lot, like more than what we had March a few years back.

Took this screengrab from a report on huge snow in Japan on the BBC website.

Does anyone have any idea what's causing the snow shelves in the surrounding fields - perhaps tiered paddy fields or something?

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Traditionally yes but look what happened in continental Europe last winter

Its like you get personally offended by people giving out about the weather here. That's what we do in Ireland because it's generally awful weather.

Unfortunately, I don't think we'll see any ice days with powdery snow sticking around for several days within the next 11 days. There could well be a lot of cold rain and sleety stuff to contend with, but parts of the country may well see snow at times. Hopefully some places at lower levels will see a nightime covering at some stage.