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Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

12357…21

Comments

  • #202
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    redsunset wrote: »
    I think expect downgrades cause 18z gfs run was out on its own in the ensembles. Tomorrow will tell alot I feel.

    Hope I'm wrong

    there will be ugly scenes over on netweather, if there are dramatic downgrades from the gfs- the model has form in this regard.
    a lot of nails being bitten between now and the next outputs!


  • #203
    Calibos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    As my dear mother used to say. F**k that for a game of soldiers. Only got 4 hours last night and have to be up at 7.30 in the morrow...

    I'll take it as a good sign if I log in when I wake up and this thread has gone from 14 to 25 pages :D


  • #204
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    I agree darkman, tis a savage feed of cold air and would cause problems and maybe it will come, however GFS has a habit of over exaggerating intense cold over us in FI.

    So 3 things can happen, it'll either
    • Come and freeze us half to death
    • Be diluted
    • Beaten back at last min by atlantic


  • #205
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Calibos wrote: »
    As my dear mother used to say. F**k that for a game of soldiers. Only got 4 hours last night and have to be up at 7.30 in the morrow...

    I'll take it as a good sign if I log in when I wake up and this thread has gone from 14 to 25 pages :D

    40 posts per page really should be forum default :P


  • #206
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    nacho libre wrote: »
    there will be ugly scenes over on netweather, if there are dramatic downgrades from the gfs- the model has form in this regard.
    a lot of nails being bitten between now and the next outputs!

    I have not looked over at NW, I already know from past set ups the state their in.


  • #207
    mothel
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭mothel


    Can someone post the netweather link you're all mentioning please?


  • #208
    mothel
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭mothel


    And a good link to the models?


  • #209
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    mothel wrote: »
    And a good link to the models?
    For all your weathering needs.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056531638


  • #210
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    mothel wrote: »
    Can someone post the netweather link you're all mentioning please?

    All seems quite there at the moment

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72352-model-output-discussion-06z-27th-january/page__st__500

    But they have model chat and banter section in there somewhere although Ive never been in it


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  • #211
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    All seems quite there at the moment

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72352-model-output-discussion-06z-27th-january/page__st__500

    But they have model chat and banter section in there somewhere although Ive never been in it

    I was never a huge fan of The Netweather forums but had a quick read through their model discussions page and found it very interesting and informative. There is a lot of knowledge over there.
    Not long now to the 0Z runs. Should be interesting to say the least ;)


  • #212
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    I was never a huge fan of The Netweather forums but had a quick read through their model discussions page and found it very interesting and informative. There is a lot of knowledge over there.
    Not long now to the 0Z runs. Should be interesting to say the least ;)

    Im eagerly awaiting this run !

    The Model Discussion page and the Strat warming discussion would be the only ones i frequent but I enjoy them.


  • #213
    mothel
    Registered Users Posts: 248 ✭✭mothel


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Im eagerly awaiting this run !

    The Model Discussion page and the Strat warming discussion would be the only ones i frequent but I enjoy them.

    Hi, can you post a link to the Model discussion page please?


  • #214
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    mothel wrote: »
    Hi, can you post a link to the Model discussion page please?

    Its the 3rd forum on that list , the first one on the list is where the strat discussion is also


  • #215
    bassy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,580 ✭✭✭bassy


    when or what time should we exspect to see the 0z run?.


  • #216
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    bassy wrote: »
    when or what time should we exspect to see the 0z run?.

    GFS 0Z run is rolling out now. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1


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  • #217
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    cold looking a tiny bit more westward @ 24hrs , what do u think ?

    Actually it is , only a little bit but it all counts !


  • #218
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    cold looking a tiny bit more westward @ 24hrs , what do u think ?

    Took a snap of the 18z at 66h so when we get the 0Z of that chart will compare the two.


  • #219
    kingshankly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,589 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    First few days in February looking quite cold


  • #220
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    Took a snap of the 18z at 66h so when we get the 0Z of that chart will compare the two.

    If you scroll over 36 00z then 42 12Z there the exact same time and the difference can be seen


  • #221
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Far More comments here than on Netweather so far for the 00z's haha. Hopefully the trend will stay the same on GFS and ECM and UKMO upgrade! :D




    Dan :)


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  • #222
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    18z

    gfs-2012012718-1-60_euh2.png

    00z

    gfs-2012012800-1-54_bqw2.png

    Spot the difference :D


  • #223
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    18z

    gfs-2012012718-1-72_hps3.png

    00z

    gfs-2012012800-1-66_yzl5.png

    Milder Air holding on a bit more here , but not by much,

    Although the core of the cold is further westwards


  • #224
    kingshankly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,589 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    Still looking good for the north east , it snowed here outside newry yesterday morning for 10 minutes to wet me appetite


  • #225
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Yes, cold staying that little bit further East on this run so far. We will see if it goes deep cold again on the lather part of the run.


  • #226
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    Yes, cold staying that little bit further East on this run so far. We will see if it goes deep cold again on the lather part of the run.

    The core of the cold is angling in a more northerly direction so I would hope so, I think the FI deep cold will hit us a little sooner on this run , that more northerly track is bring it quicker


  • #227
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    Yes, cold staying that little bit further East on this run so far. We will see if it goes deep cold again on the lather part of the run.

    looks like the deep cold is moving that bit quicker west


  • #228
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    I Think , Late Sunday /Monday snow may be off the cards but the rest is looking good


  • #229
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    18z

    gfs-2012012718-1-126_pnk0.png


    00z

    gfs-2012012800-1-120_sqr0.png


  • #230
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Looking up to +126hrs- This is going to be a direct hit of -15 to -20 850 temps! :D




    Dan :)


  • #231
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Oh this is looking like another great run:D


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  • #232
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    I Think , Late Sunday /Monday snow may be off the cards but the rest is looking good

    If we take the run at face value i would agree that Sun/Mon event would be a non runner but its true that the deep cold is making its way West faster on this run so still all to play for i think. Overall very little differences between to 18Z and 0Z which in itself is a good thing :)


  • #233
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    18z

    gfs-2012012718-1-150_pgp0.png

    00z

    gfs-2012012800-1-144_fki9.png

    There is a lot more -20 uppers (purple) on this chart ,

    do you think there going to come over to say hello ?

    I think so , Thats the where our air mass should be flowing through

    What about the 1060mb high pressure !

    gfs-2012012800-0-144_oqb4.png


  • #234
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Ive seen enough:D That will do me what a run night folks


  • #235
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Epic run-

    -39 in austria!!!!!!!! :eek::D



    Rmgfs1474.gif





    Dan :)


  • #236
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    18z

    gfs-2012012718-1-150_pgp0.png

    00z

    gfs-2012012800-1-144_fki9.png

    There is a lot more -20 uppers (purple) on this chart ,

    do you think there going to come over to say hello ?

    I think so , Thats the where our air mass should be flowing through

    What about the 1060mb high pressure !

    gfs-2012012800-0-144_oqb4.png

    I think the stand out factor of this run is the deepness of the cold and how wide an area it covers. Also that 1060mb pressure is unreal stuff. Next the 0Z ECMWF in a few hours. Hopefully something similar.


  • #237
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    We loose our Easterly flow around 144 hours which stops the real deep cold getting into us , but I have a feeling that High will move west or could even head towards greenland ,

    Does not look like a sinker .

    A little bit worried how early we loose the e-flow in this run , What do you think of DM2 ?


  • #238
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Dont worry pistolpetes11, FI is +96hrs at the moment, everything after is subject to change.

    UKMO looking good upto +120hrs, at +144hrs I would prefer less influence from the azores high! Good trends overall this morning though- Hopefully ECM is on board.




    Dan :)


  • #239
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Good GFS/UKMO overall. However there are caveats. One is the GFS is wanting to stop progression of coldest air this far west and the UKMO is not great for snow in the East either unless you want frontal snow which is a real possibility on both models. But both force cold air West due to it's depth more then anything else. The air is so cold, so deep and so widespread on the continent it has nowhere else to go.

    It's all still to play for.


  • #240
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Sunday/Monday looks like rain for most, maybe sleet/snow on higher ground, after that its back to the usual situation of looking around 144h onwards for real cold which is quite pointless considering the level of uncertainty. Most likely situation is a terrible weekend with plenty of rain followed by a boring week with nothing happening made worse through knowing that the rest of Europe is under severe cold. After that anything can happen obviously but even with everything that happened today I've still not shifted from thinking we'll end up in no mans land for the most part. Gladly be proven wrong but I've yet to see a single run model cold for us within a reliable time and until that happens I'm not getting off the fence!


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  • #241
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,585 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Could turn out epic for snow as the Atlantic is never pushed back beyond the outer west coast of Ireland. Not to mention the blizzards in Ibiza, Sardinia and who knows maybe Lake Chad will freeze over if there's any water left in it. :D

    As DM2 mentions, this high while very strong is not really a retrograde event so much as a swelling block. Once it's done swelling, then there's no mechanism to sustain a cold spell. However, it will probably leave behind an imprint of some kind over Norway-Sweden to allow for a second cold spell later in the month.

    For there to be severe cold with this, the arctic front pretty much has to push further west, otherwise there is bound to be a low overcast and snow or sleet further west, and with that temperatures may not fall to much lower than -4 C.

    Depends on what you want to see, how you might rate the potential with these charts, but I would say better for Wicklow, Dublin and northeast snow than any other prospects. Let's see how the ECM handles this. The 1065 mb high lasting several days on the GFS is exceptional and showed up before the 1947 cold spell; a record value of 1067 mbs can be seen over the Baltic in Jan 1907 (but only a moderate cold spell reached the UK in that situation).

    It's generally better to see high pressure extending as far west as Iceland to get a sustained and deep cold.


  • #242
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Ok reality check here folks.

    The ECM 0z does not look like anything spectacular to me (from the perspective of Ireland)

    -4oC upper temps flirt with the east coast of our island next Thursday and Friday. This would deliver rain/sleet? After that, the Atlantic looks like winning out with mild temperatures returning and any severe cold restricted to Europe.

    That said Thursday/Friday is in FI so things might change. However, never rule out the power of the Atlantic on the island of Ireland. Next couple of days will be very interesting however if I was a betting man, I would go for the mild winning out (this pains me to say) :(

    D


  • #243
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    met eireann at 755,rain rain rain...
    Lowest temp at night next week -2c..

    coldest day time in the east next week 4 or 5c with ongoing rain in the west and southwest and milder there up to 9c

    No mention of snow anywhere,not even sleet...

    /boring


  • #244
    caeser
    Registered Users Posts: 44 ✭caeser


    Whatever happens over the next couple of days these last few GFS runs have been the best of the winter and are the reason why i love weather.. lets hope the GFS pattern continues. A question though have -14 or -16 uppers ever reached ireland before.


  • #245
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    blackius wrote: »
    met eireann at 755,rain rain rain...
    Lowest temp at night next week -2c..

    coldest day time in the east next week 4 or 5c with ongoing rain in the west and southwest and milder there up to 9c

    No mention of snow anywhere,not even sleet...

    /boring

    Illustrates exactly my point Blackius - people need to take a few deep breaths here. MT in his update this morning is of the view the east of the country has a 70% chance of snow and cold with mild to win out after that. Next few model runs will be crucial. Met Eireann are not biting yet. Caution advised.

    D


  • #246
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    M.e seem to base every forecast on one ecm run.
    Makes it simple for them I suppose.

    It desn't inspire confidence though when that inevitably leads to constantly having to change their forecasts.


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  • #247
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    caeser wrote: »
    Whatever happens over the next couple of days these last few GFS runs have been the best of the winter and are the reason why i love weather.. lets hope the GFS pattern continues. A question though have -14 or -16 uppers ever reached ireland before.
    Wetterzentrale will have historic maps for 850's but at a rough guess,they will have done,perhaps in 47 or one of the other severe Easterlies.

    Incidentally as some of you will know,the mornings ECM put a cock blocking high centre near denmark which cuts off the flow of the coldest uppers and ends our cold spell before it even began.
    Thats the reason for the mildish M.E forecast today.


    In the short term,there is going to be a lot of heavy rain on this island over the next 48 to 60hrs as colder and warmer air collide on a frontal boundary.


  • #248
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Matthew Hugo Reasonable model agreement for most of next week now - meteocentre.com/models/ compar_… - the ECM Det was a mild outlier by the way as well 9:03 am - 28 Jan 12 via Twitter


  • #249
    force eleven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    blackius wrote: »
    met eireann at 755,rain rain rain...
    Lowest temp at night next week -2c..

    coldest day time in the east next week 4 or 5c with ongoing rain in the west and southwest and milder there up to 9c

    No mention of snow anywhere,not even sleet...

    /boring

    Don't worry, Gerry Murphy wrote that summary. He cannot bear to type the word snow let alone say it. :rolleyes:


  • #250
    K_1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 326 ✭✭K_1


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Ok-

    Everybody- Do not worry about snow and where it will come from, once we have the easterly in place and cold uppers backing west-The snow WILL follow! :)

    Pressure to high? No such thing- December 2010 I was worried about this, pressure at 1040MB, how will we ever get snow?? -10 uppers over an irish sea of +10C creates LOADS of precipitation. Got 10-15cm that day. :)

    The sst's in the Irish sea are currently around 10C, you need a 13C degree difference in sst's and 850 temps to create precipitation. So if the -13C uppers that the GFS 12/18z's came off then we will have a 23C difference!! = Lake effect SNOW in the east.

    00Z models are extremely important!





    Dan :)


    Thats all very well for you to say on the east coast, but late last December, only 1cm of snow made it past the blackstairs. Most people will need more than streamers to deliver snow, even in the eastern half of the country.


  • #251
    oterra
    Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭oterra


    K_1 wrote: »
    Thats all very well for you to say on the east coast, but late last December, only 1cm of snow made it past the blackstairs. Most people will need more than streamers to deliver snow, even in the eastern half of the country.
    06z GFS is rolling out now, so lets just wait and see if we're looking at the trend been verified. There has been so many changes in the last 60 hrs that uncertainty is still very strong. The ingredients are there for something epic over the next week or it could go the other way. I say 60/40 in favour of severe cold snap with a mild interlude.


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