Share Picks 2018

garrettod · 14-02-2018 11:49am

Tyson Fury wrote: »

Any opinions on crh? It's crashed quiet a bit over the last 6 months, I'd expect it to rebound into the summer.

From what I can see of CRH, the market likes them more when they keep acquiring businesses, but doesn't seem to like them as much when they announce that they are taking some time away from acquisitions, to consolidate all that they have bought to date (which I think is the principal game plan for the current year).

The above seems a bit odd to me tbh, as there must be a very nice business there, with good earnings potential across a number of it's key markets given the strength of the US and European economies. Taking a break from acquisitions to ensure that everything they have acquired in the last few years has been consolidated correctly and is running efficiently etc. doesn't seem like a bad idea to me personally.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-02-2018 3:53pm

I take back what I said, HIVE on sale this afternoon so might have to go one more time.

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 4:05pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

I take back what I said, HIVE on sale this afternoon so might have to go one more time.

We got volume today, over a million in the first 30 minutes, have an order sitting at 1.70, don't think i'll get filled again.

JaimeLannister · 14-02-2018 4:09pm

Took the plunge on HIVE this afternoon (C$1.80). Hoping for a rise in the run up to earnings at month end. Small stakes - didn't put in as much as i was planning initially given the volatility of this stock over the last few weeks!

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 4:11pm

JaimeLannister wrote: »

Took the plunge on HIVE this afternoon (C$1.80). Hoping for a rise in the run up to earnings at month end. Small stakes - didn't put in as much as i was planning initially given the volatility of this stock over the last few weeks!

Hopefully you'll see a rise before the end of the day. That's a nice entry.

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 6:05pm

$2 in sight, praying we burst through it and get Jamie up 10%+ on his first day.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-02-2018 6:10pm

Here's hoping. Just missed out on 1.79 buy in today order didn't fill.

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 6:28pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

Here's hoping. Just missed out on 1.79 buy in today order didn't fill.

Have a look at the CEO's other company GROW, not sure how many shares in Hive he sold but he might be about to deliver a good earnings report tomorrow for investors.
The markets seem to think he is, I've been watching it the last few months on and off and nothings really happened and volume was low but it seems to have for a bit of traction today.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/grow

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-02-2018 8:39pm

Have to hand it to you DrunkMonkey you do your homework. Just researching the team and their advisors, I see the founder of Lionsgate Entertainment is listed. Some interesting connections.

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 8:50pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

Have to hand it to you DrunkMonkey you do your homework. Just researching the team and their advisors, I see the founder of Lionsgate Entertainment is listed. Some interesting connections.

Were not dealing with paddy and mick here, don't google Frank Giustra one of the biggest investors, himself and crooked Hillary go way back, he's in a bit of trouble, probably him causing the selling pressure : )

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-02-2018 9:52pm

Not a fan of herself but I reckon the idea is sound enough to withstand that nonsense long term.

There’s a few good videos on YouTube from the perspective of die hard crypto fans.

littlevillage · 14-02-2018 10:46pm

Cork123456789 wrote: »

Can I ask who you compared the Price/Earnings ratio with? Don't think there's another hotel group on the ISE. I did look at one or 2 in London but their P/E was negative.

I did some re-checking and you know what!!!!.... mea culpa. I gave you some incorrect information yesterday (I was thinking of some other company ...presumably). The PE for Dalata is currently about 15.86 at a closing price of €5.71 today and is average compared to its peers.

Share price has also fallen 10% since its peak at the begining of Jan.

So I will change my advice. Its a good purchase and if you had disregarded my advice yesterday and went ahead with your planned purchase, you would already be sitting on 2% profit cause that's how much it went up today :-)

By way of an apology please find below the PE numbers for Dalata Hotel group and a selection of other peer Hotels.

DALATA is 15.6 (at €5.59 and rising to 15.8 on a Share price of €5.71)
Whitbread is 14.2
Intercontinental is 23
Accor is 47
Hilton is 43
NH Hotels is 52
Millenium & Copthorne is 15.2
Rezidor is 12.3

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 10:50pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

Not a fan of herself but I reckon the idea is sound enough to withstand that nonsense long term.

There’s a few good videos on YouTube from the perspective of die hard crypto fans.

Here you go, as I suspected it's being used as a proxy to get exposure to Hive, now we just need Hive to leapfrog it in the next 2 weeks, http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/02/14/1348369/0/en/U-S-Global-Investors-Reports-Significantly-Improved-Net-Income-for-Second-Quarter-2018.html

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 10:55pm

littlevillage wrote: »

I did some re-checking and you know what!!!!.... mea culpa. I gave you some incorrect information (I was thinking of Kingspan... for some reason). The PE for Dalata is currently about 15.86 at a closing price of €5.71 today and is low enough compared to its peers. Share price has also fallen 10% since its peak at the begining of Jan.

So I will change my advice. Its a good purchase and if you had disregarded my advice yesterday and went ahead with your planned purchase, you would already be sitting on 2% profit cause that's how much it went up today :-)

By way of an apology please find attached the PE for Dalata Hotel group and a selection of other peer Hotels. Correct as of closing price yesterday (€5.59)

Errr

Can't add attachments.

Bots are bearish https://online.capitalcube.com/#!/stock/ie/ise/dhg

littlevillage · 14-02-2018 11:19pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Bots are bearish https://online.capitalcube.com/#!/stock/ie/ise/dhg

Thats a useful website. Gives a nice bullet pointed summary as well about companies... for us dummies

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-02-2018 11:21pm

A great read, thanks!

JaimeLannister · 14-02-2018 11:22pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

$2 in sight, praying we burst through it and get Jamie up 10%+ on his first day.

Haha we had to settle for 5% in the end! Headed in the right direction anyway. Hopefully can drive on over the next few days!

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-02-2018 11:23pm

Interesting that the GROW article was published 12 minutes after the closing bell

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 11:32pm

littlevillage wrote: »

Thats a useful website. Gives a nice bullet pointed summary as well about companies... for us dummies

It uses algorithms, I wouldn't take it as gospel but it's somewhere to start.

littlevillage · 14-02-2018 11:32pm

garrettod wrote: »

From what I can see of CRH, the market likes them more when they keep acquiring businesses, but doesn't seem to like them as much when they announce that they are taking some time away from acquisitions, to consolidate all that they have bought to date (which I think is the principal game plan for the current year).

The above seems a bit odd to me tbh, as there must be a very nice business there, with good earnings potential across a number of it's key markets given the strength of the US and European economies. Taking a break from acquisitions to ensure that everything they have acquired in the last few years has been consolidated correctly and is running efficiently etc. doesn't seem like a bad idea to me personally.

Have been watching the CRH share price fall. It got a glowing recommendation from Davy stock brokers at the start of the year (It was featured on their 2018 "Conviction" list) they reckoned it could go to €37 ... from the €30.50 it was on at the time. It has since fallen to €27.43 .... :rolleyes:

I reckoned the big infrastructure annoucements in the US should have given it a good bounce.

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 11:35pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

Interesting that the GROW article was published 12 minutes after the closing bell

Earnings aren't out until tomorrow officially and there having a webcast after it. If you compare the Hive chart to it were nearly up and down at the same time over the last while until earnings were coming, hopefully a guide for what direction were going very shortly.

drunkmonkey · 14-02-2018 11:41pm

I expect GROW to fall tomorrow as that's just an egg, we got the goose. If you really want exposure to Hive buy Hive not GROW, think the twits have it all upside down as usual https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GROW

dickface · 15-02-2018 9:17am

littlevillage wrote: »

Have been watching the CRH share price fall. It got a glowing recommendation from Davy stock brokers at the start of the year (It was featured on their 2018 "Conviction" list) they reckoned it could go to €37 ... from the €30.50 it was on at the time. It has since fallen to €27.43 .... :rolleyes:

I reckoned the big infrastructure annoucements in the US should have given it a good bounce.

https://www.independent.ie/business/world/biggest-hedge-funds-130m-short-on-crh-36537413.html
Maybe some people know more than we do...

drunkmonkey · 15-02-2018 10:39am

dickface wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/world/biggest-hedge-funds-130m-short-on-crh-36537413.html
Maybe some people know more than we do...

They've shorted EU firms with exposure to US markets to the tune of $22 billion not just CRH.
It's a putting America first Hedge.

greenfield21 · 15-02-2018 11:11am

When would they need to buy that stock back. The CB website shows more short pos taken for crh in Feb with BW.

littlevillage · 15-02-2018 2:04pm

If you add up all the Short position s by Bridgewater they come to 5.5% of the share capital over about 2 months !!

Or am I mis-reading ? (I assume some positions would mature etc. and they wouldn't be all outstanding at the same time) but still thats a fair drag on the share price.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 15-02-2018 5:07pm

HIVE on a roll.

greenfield21 · 15-02-2018 5:31pm

CRH gets shorted again by Bw on 14th Feb 0.89%. I wouldn't touch it ha.

drunkmonkey · 15-02-2018 5:38pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

HIVE on a roll.

Needs to burst through that wall at 2.03 got bounced off it the other day as well.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 15-02-2018 5:40pm

I see GROW is down too.

drunkmonkey · 15-02-2018 5:49pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

I see GROW is down too.

Didn't look today but couldn't understand how it could go up as Hive is down now, last quarter might have been ok on the back of Hive but this one isn't looking great for them. It's completely tied to Hives price now.

garrettod · 15-02-2018 6:23pm

littlevillage wrote: »

Have been watching the CRH share price fall. It got a glowing recommendation from Davy stock brokers at the start of the year (It was featured on their 2018 "Conviction" list) they reckoned it could go to €37 ... from the €30.50 it was on at the time. It has since fallen to €27.43 .... :rolleyes:

I reckoned the big infrastructure annoucements in the US should have given it a good bounce.

Hi,

Davy's are listed as one of their corporate brokers here .

greenfield21 wrote: »

CRH gets shorted again by Bw on 14th Feb 0.89%. I wouldn't touch it ha.

Where are you getting that info from, if you don't mind me asking ?

Bridgewater and Dalio have taken a lot of short positions in recent months (per Bloomberg), in part because it's been cheap to short, so they only need a relatively small number of their positions to come in, to break even and then profit. However, that's not to say that they don't know something about CRH that I don't etc.

The consolidation of recent acquisitions will result in some cost savings across parts of the group, revenue and earnings were marginally lower than forecast but still ahead per last update, and there's been no scary news headlines for the company that I can think of, so I expect CRH to be doing fine. The lack of significant activity in terms of further acquisitions, should see a mix of debt reduction and possibly a little lift in the dividend, when next results are announced.

Much depends on what someone invests in the share for, if it's short term capital growth then people shorting CRH ain't good; but if it's for an income stream over the next couple of years, then the cheaper the price of the share, the better the potential dividend yield so some people looking for income may be tempted to buy more (assuming CRH continue to trade well and there's no change to their dividend policy).

Hopefully Dalio will get bored and move on soon enough.

.

drunkmonkey · 15-02-2018 7:10pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

I see GROW is down too.

It's taking another run at the wall now, squeeze indicator is telling me it might just make it through this time..

drunkmonkey · 15-02-2018 10:05pm

Don't touch dalata with a barge pole, if anything short the hell out of it and set at profit target and get well away from it. You don't want to be holding that stock.

Captainsatnav · 15-02-2018 10:17pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Don't touch dalata with a barge pole, if anything short the hell out of it and set at profit target and get well away from it. You don't want to be holding that stock.
Can't say why but just keep away.

Righteo so:)

q85dw7osi4lebg · 15-02-2018 10:29pm

HIVE traders had weetabix for breakfast lunch and dinner today.

Captainsatnav · 15-02-2018 10:30pm

I have absolutely no reason to doubt you but I have nothing to give me thought through my own research that the company is anything but on a sound footing in the media / news reports either...

greenfield21 · 15-02-2018 11:05pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

CRH gets shorted again by Bw on 14th Feb 0.89%. I wouldn't touch it ha.

Before someone corrects me but it looks like the most recent notification to the central authority is the current amount that is shorted. So those different amounts are Bridgewater increasing or decreasing its position over time. I think..

littlevillage · 16-02-2018 11:17am

CRH share price up 4% in the last three days, soo the short ing is not affecting it very much. In fact when shorts go wrong they can actually drive up the share price cause the Shorters suddenly have to buy lots of shares at whatever price they can, to stop losses.

b4bmm · 16-02-2018 12:51pm

TAW starting commissioning and will be producing early in March.
Top class management and top class effort during construction phase.
Very very few projects in the mining industry get built on budget and ahead of schedule.
So much upside over the next few years.
4X by end of 2020 my prediction.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 16-02-2018 1:19pm

Hoping to buy more TAW over the next few weeks.

drunkmonkey · 16-02-2018 2:22pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

HIVE traders had weetabix for breakfast lunch and dinner today.

Short volume is down 42% could be an interesting day. Hasn't been a bad week considering all those cheap shares came out of lock up.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 16-02-2018 2:49pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Short volume is down 42% could be an interesting day. Hasn't been a bad week considering all those cheap shares came out of lock up.

Great can I ask the best source for that info for moving forward.

Thanks

drunkmonkey · 16-02-2018 3:47pm

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

Great can I ask the best source for that info for moving forward.

Thanks

https://shortdata.ca/largest-short-positions/

kitchenchair · 17-02-2018 12:15am

Anyone here trading on TSX with deGiro? Whats the fee's? I trade on TSX but through my Canadian bank account but just thinking ahead for future...

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 17-02-2018 12:27am

All fees are listed on the website. Fee schedule

TSX is generally € 2.00 + CAD 0.01 per share. Full fees are listed in the fee schedule.

kitchenchair wrote: »

Anyone here trading on TSX with deGiro? Whats the fee's? I trade on TSX but through my Canadian bank account but just thinking ahead for future...

evolving_doors · 18-02-2018 9:00pm

Been watching this story since January 2017. It's like Breaking Bad ,but legal!
This company was granted a licence on Friday. And airmailed 100,000 'units' to a 1.3million sq ft facility on Saturday with space for another 250000 units.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/business/flying-high-100-000-pot-plants-flown-from-ontario-to-b-c-1.3808316
Is there any gas left in the tank or has it hit a wall?
video at the top.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/business/flying-high-100-000-pot-plants-flown-from-ontario-to-b-c-1.3808316

drunkmonkey · 19-02-2018 12:34pm

If I've learned anything from Hive it's the effect of all these extra shares can have from financing deals etc. It has a negative effect on shareholders from all the dilution and these weed companies are all at it, I haven't dug into canopy growth but there's a lot more shares outstanding than 12mts ago. It's great for the business as they can really ramp up production but from a share holders perspective the share price could struggle to get a lot more traction.
It's the run up to July so I'd say we could see $35+ I'd be weary though and would like to see a full breakdown on all those deals when lock up period expires etc.
Canopy will get bigger just not convinced the share holders will see the benefits. It's a massive market and they have thousands of patents so who knows probably undervalued at current price.

OwlsZat · 20-02-2018 12:36am

Pluristem Therapeutics (NASDAQ:PSTI)

Anyone following?

Cute Hoor · 20-02-2018 9:27am

garrettod wrote: »

Bridgewater and Dalio have taken a lot of short positions in recent months (per Bloomberg), in part because it's been cheap to short, so they only need a relatively small number of their positions to come in, to break even and then profit. However, that's not to say that they don't know something about CRH that I don't etc.

The consolidation of recent acquisitions will result in some cost savings across parts of the group, revenue and earnings were marginally lower than forecast but still ahead per last update, and there's been no scary news headlines for the company that I can think of, so I expect CRH to be doing fine. The lack of significant activity in terms of further acquisitions, should see a mix of debt reduction and possibly a little lift in the dividend, when next results are announced.

Much depends on what someone invests in the share for, if it's short term capital growth then people shorting CRH ain't good; but if it's for an income stream over the next couple of years, then the cheaper the price of the share, the better the potential dividend yield so some people looking for income may be tempted to buy more (assuming CRH continue to trade well and there's no change to their dividend policy).

Hopefully Dalio will get bored and move on soon enough.

.

Bridgewater are shorting the cream of European stocks, somebody (them or us) is going to get burned.

Unilever Netherlands 0.66 1032.5 12-Feb
Total France 0.72 1017.6 9-Feb
Siemens Germany 0.86 970.0 1-Feb
SAP Germany 0.74 925.2 1-Feb
Allianz Germany 0.87 878.2 1-Feb
Bayer Germany 0.86 847.4 1-Feb
Intesa Sanpaolo Italy 1.32 839.5 8-Feb
BASF Germany 0.84 811.9 1-Feb
Daimler Germany 0.84 780.0 1-Feb
Banco Santander Spain 0.69 753.0 12-Feb
Enel Italy 1.2 697.9 8-Feb
Eni Italy 1.1 656.0 8-Feb
BNP Paribas France 0.65 628.6 12-Feb
Sanofi France 0.64 627.1 12-Feb
ASML Holding Netherlands 0.65 515.0 12-Feb
NG Groep Netherlands 0.72 502.5 12-Feb
AXA France 0.62 458.3 8-Feb
Deutsche Telekom Germany 0.57 434.2 1-Feb
Airbus France 0.52 411.6 8-Feb
BBVA Spain 0.69 397.6 12-Feb
Vinci France 0.67 389.7 12-Feb
UniCredit Italy 0.82 386.8 31-Jan
Air Liquide France 0.71 366.4 8-Feb
Deutsche Post Germany 0.66 363.7 1-Feb
Danone France 0.67 352.8 12-Feb
Adidas Germany 0.75 339.1 1-Feb
Schneider Electric France 0.66 332.7 12-Feb
Societe Generale France 0.72 318.5 9-Feb
Munich Re Germany 0.85 291.9 1-Feb
Iberdrola Spain 0.61 289.3 12-Feb
Telefonica Spain 0.6 286.7 12-Feb
CRH Ireland 0.95 270.8 12-Feb
Safran France 0.62 268.5 9-Feb
Fresenius SE Germany 0.63 267.5 1-Feb
Deutsche Bank Germany 0.78 254.0 1-Feb
Philips Netherlands 0.73 253.4 12-Feb
NOKIA Finland 0.8 246.8 8-Feb
Orange France 0.56 245.9 12-Feb
Saint-Gobain France 0.71 205.7 12-Feb
Essilor France 0.71 203.6 8-Feb
Engie France 0.53 198.2 12-Feb
Vivendi France 0.56 191.4 12-Feb
E.ON Germany 0.85 181.3 1-Feb
Generali Italy 0.6 174.8 5-Jan
Ahold Delhaize Netherlands 0.58 157.0 12-Feb
Unibail-Rodamco Netherlands 0.68 155.1 12-Feb
Atlantia Italy 0.5 123.2 30-Jan
STMicro France 0.5 97.2 6-Feb
Snam Italy 0.5 78.0 23-Jan
Terna Italy 0.5 55.5 11-Jan
Mediobanca Italy 0.5 53.3 22-Jan
Prysmian Italy 0.7 49.3 16-Jan
Moncler Italy 0.5 41.6 22-Jan
UBI Banca Italy 0.7 38.3 9-Feb
FinecoBank Italy 0.5 34.4 25-Jan
Leonardo Italy 0.5 29.9 17-Jan
Bper Banca Italy 0.8 21.5 12-Feb
Azimut Italy 0.6 18.6 18-Jan
Unipol Gruppo Italy 0.5 17.9 16-Jan

ISP thinks the loser will be Bridgewater
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-08/ray-dalio-s-biggest-italian-short-target-intesa-up-for-the-fight

Share Picks 2018

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