If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)

Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Hi all! We have been experiencing an issue on site where threads have been missing the latest postings. The platform host Vanilla are working on this issue. A workaround that has been used by some is to navigate back from 1 to 10+ pages to re-sync the thread and this will then show the latest posts. Thanks, Mike.

Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

ninebeanrows · 2012-01-27 11:11:01

Well the overall synoptic for the next 10 days is very uncertain. However there is growing consensus that it will turn colder and much more settled. There is chance as the period progresses that a pulse of very cold air from the east could force west across Ireland. Southern England will be more at risk of the intense…

Comments

#52 27-01-2012 4:12pm

tzfrantic

Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭

Join Date: April 2011

Posts: 108

they might be just down playing the snow or they are unsure how the siberian air will go to.

0
#53 27-01-2012 4:20pm

DOCARCH

Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,155 Mod ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: August 2007

Posts: 17920

tzfrantic wrote: »

they might be just down playing the snow or they are unsure how the siberian air will go to.

True.

I suppose there needs really to be a health warning on this thread about the potential for snow.

If I were Met E and looking at the latest charts DM2 posted above, it's really not cold enough for snow and too early to include in their forecast. We can say/wish for what we want on here.

At least the trend seems to be there pushing the cold air ever so slightly west.

As WC suggested earlier, this could easily be (more likely be) a cold rain event.

0
#54 27-01-2012 4:22pm

tzfrantic

Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭

Join Date: April 2011

Posts: 108

DOCARCH wrote: »

True.

I suppose there needs really to be a health warning on this thread about the potential for snow.

If I were Met E and looking at the latest charts DM2 posted above, it's really not cold enough for snow and too early to include in their forecast. We can say/wish for what we want on here.

At least the trend seems to be there pushing the cold air ever so slightly west.

As WC suggested earlier, this could easily be (more likely be) a cold rain event.

fun killer i want snow nah i need snow so you get on your broom and get me the siberian air mass to make it's way to ireland

0
#55 27-01-2012 4:23pm

munsterlegend

Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭

Join Date: June 2008

Posts: 6167

DOCARCH wrote: »

True.

I suppose there needs really to be a health warning on this thread about the potential for snow.

If I were Met E and looking at the latest charts DM2 posted above, it's really not cold enough for snow and too early to include in their forecast. We can say/wish for what we want on here.

At least the trend seems to be there pushing the cold air ever so slightly west.

As WC suggested earlier, this could easily be (more likely be) a cold rain event.

Uk met office have it as follows for Sunday to Tuesday in their forecast:

'Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Eastern areas largely fine but cold through the period. Rain in the west will gradually turn to snow on Monday, mainly affecting hills. More prolonged rain in Scotland.
Updated: 1515 on Fri 27 Jan 2012'

so more than likely just on higher ground is the current prediction.

0
#56 27-01-2012 4:25pm

Harps

Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭

Join Date: February 2009

Posts: 3502

On current forecasts despite the upgrade since yesterday I still don't see snow over the coming days and quite an average few days immediately away from the east coast. An encouraging trend today and plenty of potential later in the week but its still looking like rain or sleet at best at the moment

Edit: Beaten to it by DOCARCH!

0
#57 27-01-2012 4:25pm

darkman2

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2005

Posts: 7711

DOCARCH wrote: »

True.

I suppose there needs really to be a health warning on this thread about the potential for snow.

If I were Met E and looking at the latest charts DM2 posted above, it's really not cold enough for snow and too early to include in their forecast.

I am actually not focusing on Monday tbh but more after that. Monday looks "interesting" but no more then that at this point. Will still have to be watched carefully because as has been said a bit of tweaking and there could well be sleet and snow to low levels.

0
#58 27-01-2012 4:26pm

burger1979

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 409 ✭✭

Join Date: August 2008

Posts: 365

If the 'snow' does come to fruition for the East coast, can I ask what effect the Isle of Man would have on blocking certain sections of the east coast from snow? We seen it last year with the north East winds bringing the clouds over the Irish sea from England/Scotland and then dumping their load (so to speak on the Isle of Man) and these clouds then disappearing.

0
#59 27-01-2012 4:28pm

pistolpetes11

Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: September 2008

Posts: 6780

Weathercheck wrote: »

I know what will happen now, heavy rain all weekend.

5c/3c at first then......

4c/2c........

then.... we finally get to 3c/1c.. bit of sleet mixed in.

2c/0c, rain peters out.

1c/0c, frosty night

This is actually the most likely out come at the moment !

0
#60 27-01-2012 4:30pm

nacho libre

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,962 ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: August 2006

Posts: 16749

blackius wrote: »

Well I think if theres a risk of snow,why on earth don't they mention it on their tv forecasts.

it could be a seniority thing- given the uncertainty she does not want to be the one to call it and then have to backtrack. so perhaps it will be left to a more experienced colleague, like Evelyn to mention the s word closer to the time. i doubt it's because they are now certain there will be no snow.

0
Advertisement
#61 27-01-2012 4:30pm

Harps

Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭

Join Date: February 2009

Posts: 3502

burger1979 wrote: »

If the 'snow' does come to fruition for the East coast, can I ask what effect the Isle of Man would have on blocking certain sections of the east coast from snow? We seen it last year with the north East winds bringing the clouds over the Irish sea from England/Scotland and then dumping their load (so to speak on the Isle of Man) and these clouds then disappearing.

No effect if the front on Sunday/Monday happens to fall as snow. Last year was a totally different set up with showers forming over the Irish Sea, this time its a front coming in from the Atlantic clashing with cold air to the east which potentially could lead to snow if its cold enough at the surface.

0
#62 27-01-2012 4:31pm

darkman2

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2005

Posts: 7711

burger1979 wrote: »

If the 'snow' does come to fruition for the East coast, can I ask what effect the Isle of Man would have on blocking certain sections of the east coast from snow? We seen it last year with the north East winds bringing the clouds over the Irish sea from England/Scotland and then dumping their load (so to speak on the Isle of Man) and these clouds then disappearing.

The Isle of Man is perfectly posistioned to create a rain shadow in a showery regime - not so in a frontal situation. Yes, that would likely occur again but it depends on the wind direction. First thing is first - get the Easterly in place first.;)

0
#63 27-01-2012 4:32pm

munsterlegend

Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭

Join Date: June 2008

Posts: 6167

Considering the upgrades in the past 24 hour nothing can be ruled out in terms of further upgrades and shifts in pattern west.

0
#64 27-01-2012 4:35pm

average_runner

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,855 ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: January 2006

Posts: 12586

This has two years ago all written over it.

A rain front went over the East during the day and on to the West . It was due to come back to the East that night when it was cold and give snow. Mullingar etc got the snow but the front broke before it hit Dublin.

So i believe this will happen or i will be running a race in bloody cold conditions in Raheny:rolleyes:

0
#65 27-01-2012 4:38pm

DOCARCH

Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,155 Mod ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: August 2007

Posts: 17920

darkman2 wrote: »

I am actually not focusing on Monday tbh but more after that. Monday looks "interesting" but no more then that at this point. Will still have to be watched carefully because as has been said a bit of tweaking and there could well be sleet and snow to low levels.

Sure DM2, I appreciate that.

I'm more just throwing in my comments/tuppence as some may interpret this thread as a 'it's going to snow thread' and we all know the fall out that can happen when it doesn't!

0
#66 27-01-2012 5:02pm

nacho libre

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,962 ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: August 2006

Posts: 16749

Could we all go over to england and help blow the cold air all the way to the west coast of ireland. just a suggestion :pac:

0
Advertisement
#67 27-01-2012 5:14pm

average_runner

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,855 ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: January 2006

Posts: 12586

Met Eireann not biting on this, rain and temp of 8 for Sunday:eek:

0
#68 27-01-2012 5:16pm

darkman2

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2005

Posts: 7711

That's serious stuff coming into Europe

0
#69 27-01-2012 5:18pm

eskimocat

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭

Join Date: September 2006

Posts: 1194

Weathercheck wrote: »

I find these charts good for pin pointing the cold boundary.

Here it is @ 48 hours

We need the dark blue boundary to push in over the east coast in future runs

And @ 72 hours

Question: See the green part running up from the south, what is that ???? Any of these?...Overwhelmed azores high weakened by the cold or is it warmth carried on the tail of the jet stream? or what?

Can't quite figure out what overwhelms the highs... some charts had warm pushing up with some extreme cold either side, I would have thought that it would have been squashed... how does it fend off the cold? (prob some really simple phyiscs law I am missing here, pardon my ignorance)
Thanks

0
#70 27-01-2012 5:22pm

darkman2

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2005

Posts: 7711

Blackius - whatdoyah reckon - is it gonna make it?

0
#71 27-01-2012 5:29pm

darkman2

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2005

Posts: 7711

Good GFS run and increasingly exceptionally cold. We never get a proper undercut from the Atlantic but we never really need it.

0
Advertisement
#72 27-01-2012 5:30pm

blackius

Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭

Join Date: November 2011

Posts: 454

Ha...take a look at the ukmo

0
#73 27-01-2012 5:31pm

highdef

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,324 ✭✭✭

Join Date: October 2003

Posts: 6116

latest GFS run is showing a massive upgrade, from what I can see, more so in the medium term. I was all set for things to fall apart but not this

0
#74 27-01-2012 5:34pm

darkman2

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2005

Posts: 7711

blackius wrote: »

Ha...take a look at the ukmo

I prefer looking at this Siberian goodness - thanks:D

0
#75 27-01-2012 5:39pm

BLIZZARD7

Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2010

Posts: 1975

Yep 12Z GFS looks epic from +96hrs onwards-

This at +168hrs

Heavy snow showers blowing in from the irish sea...

At +48 the cold air does not reach our east coast though so close...

0
#76 27-01-2012 5:40pm

Musicman2000

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭

Join Date: April 2007

Posts: 1440

Netweather is gone into meltdown and so is Meteociel, Great runs But its still the GFS:)

0
#77 27-01-2012 5:40pm

Trogdor

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭

Join Date: June 2006

Posts: 2196

Big upgrades all around today! As always just in case anyone has already managed to forget, :pac: remember that it can swing back the other just as fast.
Although i must say even this recent turn in events has got me believing! /ramp

0
#78 27-01-2012 5:42pm

MUSEIST

Closed Accounts Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭

Join Date: September 2007

Posts: 3207

My GOD look at the GFS, serious cold pours into europe:D:D:D

0
#79 27-01-2012 5:49pm

darkman2

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2005

Posts: 7711

This is just rediculously cold

2010 would be balmy in comparison.

0
#80 27-01-2012 5:51pm

Musicman2000

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭

Join Date: April 2007

Posts: 1440

Jesus thats nippy:)

0
#81 27-01-2012 5:54pm

cherryghost

Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: January 2008

Posts: 16358

0
Advertisement
#82 27-01-2012 5:55pm

boatbuilder

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 624 ✭✭✭

Join Date: April 2006

Posts: 567

*furiously varnishing snow sledges with mounting excitement*:D

0
#83 27-01-2012 5:56pm

Strangegravy

Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭

Join Date: October 2008

Posts: 345

Ha, ha... just saw the GFS... no wonder they are gone mad over at Netweather!

But the serious cold is still in FI, beautiful to look at but will probably pegged back in the next run. Just goes to show what potential is actually in that easterly though... :cool:

0
#84 27-01-2012 5:57pm

average_runner

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,855 ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: January 2006

Posts: 12586

Net weather forecast no snow for dublin

0
#85 27-01-2012 5:59pm

hotwhiskey

Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭

Join Date: November 2009

Posts: 581

GFS and the UKMO models mostly agreeing up to 144h were the UKMO stops, If the ECM take's the same line this evening this is going to be fantastic stuff.

If we get the three models to agree its looking good very good.

0
#86 27-01-2012 6:03pm

darkman2

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2005

Posts: 7711

UKMO 96hrs

Some agreement at this timeframe now. It's important whilst post 96 hours looks nice and plausible on the GFS to keep a level perspective. We are good up to 120hrs atm IMO. Pretty solid agreement at this stage and i'm sure the ECM won't have any nasty surprise later. Winter proper starts from Monday.

0
#87 27-01-2012 6:04pm

Sponge Bob

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: February 2005

Posts: 24047

hotwhiskey wrote: »

If we get the three models to agree its looking good very good.

Basically the models largely agree the cold will make it across the UK since the Midnight 0z runs...at least as far as Snowdonia.

Now lets see how the models build it further by midday Saturday. Yesterday they only had the cold reaching to the East of the Pennines in England.

0
#88 27-01-2012 6:05pm

weatherfiend

Registered Users Posts: 541 ✭✭✭

Join Date: January 2012

Posts: 540

:eek::eek::eek::eek:

oh bloody hell I think I'm going to be sick!!!! Maybe I should try to sleep for 3 days and by then it'll be sorted one way or the other

0
#89 27-01-2012 6:11pm

darkman2

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2005

Posts: 7711

More support. GEM 120hrs

0
#90 27-01-2012 6:16pm

Nabber

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2007

Posts: 2792

Alot more energy going south into the Atlantic on the jet stream. The GFS had the bulk of the energy going to Iceland and Greenland. Looks a whole lot different now.

0
Advertisement
#91 27-01-2012 6:17pm

Sponge Bob

Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: February 2005

Posts: 24047

For us to have another 1982 the cold needs to move another 200 miles west, mug a few atlantic wet fronts like the one coming across on Sunday, and then freeze it hard in situ.

So far the models have shifted it 100 miles westwards, only 200 to go. However another 100 miles will give the East and Dublin some (perhaps a lot?) snow and as far as Sponge Bob is concerned ye are welcome to it. Sure it could be another 1933 .....never mind 1982..and I would be just as happy.

Now lets all be patient, what will happen will happen.

0
#92 27-01-2012 6:19pm

Wine Goddess

Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭

Join Date: December 2010

Posts: 540

I think it's time to post that picture of a ramp with a tractor at the bottom of it! In the meantime here's one of my favourites......

0
#93 27-01-2012 6:22pm

yorlum11

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 342 ✭✭

Join Date: December 2011

Posts: 330

They are creaming themselves over on NW .More realistic here.A good run though lets hope iy holds in upcoming runs.It has made my Friday evening happier!!

0
#94 27-01-2012 6:23pm

LoadofCROC

Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭

Join Date: January 2012

Posts: 30

netweather giving 23% chance of snow for Wicklow/Wexford Feb 1st? :eek:

0
#95 27-01-2012 6:29pm

weatherfiend

Registered Users Posts: 541 ✭✭✭

Join Date: January 2012

Posts: 540

I'm posting these now just cos it's exciting to watch.

0
#96 27-01-2012 6:31pm

secrecy_ie

Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭

Join Date: May 2005

Posts: 125

sofia snow.jpg

Apparently, this is Sofia (Bulgaria) at the moment...fingers crossed this is us soon!

0
Advertisement
#97 27-01-2012 6:33pm

LoadofCROC

Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭

Join Date: January 2012

Posts: 30

weatherfiend wrote: »

I'm posting these now just cos it's exciting to watch.

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

0
#98 27-01-2012 6:33pm

ninebeanrows

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭

Join Date: November 2004

Posts: 12414

UKM shows the cold front slightly further west than the GFS.

Gonna be a tight one.

100 mile swing west is needed for eastern districts, more the further west etc

@ 60hrs

@ 72hrs

0
#99 27-01-2012 6:33pm

premiercad

Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 354 ✭✭

Join Date: July 2008

Posts: 334

I think it's time to post that picture of a ramp with a tractor at the bottom of it! In the meantime here's one of my favourites......

0
#100 27-01-2012 6:33pm

weatherfiend

Registered Users Posts: 541 ✭✭✭

Join Date: January 2012

Posts: 540

Sponge Bob wrote: »

For us to have another 1982 the cold needs to move another 200 miles west, mug a few atlantic wet fronts like the one coming across on Sunday, and then freeze it hard in situ.

So far the models have shifted it 100 miles westwards, only 200 to go. However another 100 miles will give the East and Dublin some (perhaps a lot?) snow and as far as Sponge Bob is concerned ye are welcome to it. Sure it could be another 1933 .....never mind 1982..and I would be just as happy.

Now lets all be patient, what will happen will happen.

How long has it taken them to move that 100 miles (without stating the obvious of 4 months!!) I mean really?

0
#101 27-01-2012 6:36pm

Rebelbrowser

Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭

Join Date: January 2010

Posts: 3126

LoadofCROC wrote: »

netweather giving 23% chance of snow for Wicklow/Wexford Feb 1st? :eek:

No point looking at odds for different days. IF this cold spell comes off then nearer the time we can make these predictions. I remember at the start of the second cold spell (December) in winter 2010/11 it had snowed down here but not in Dublin yet (well not in two weeks!) and a lot of our cousins in the capital were getting tetchy. This was heightened when MT said there was (only) a 20% risk of snow in Dublin each day that week. When queried on this he pointed out that if you've a 20% shot for 5 days in a row you should see one day of snow. In fact shortly afterwards it snowed like mad in Dublin for a week or something. So worry not about such percentages. If this comes off there will be plenty chances for sneachta.

0
Advertisement

This discussion has been closed.