Share Picks 2019

Irishder · 06-11-2019 9:02pm

PTI rallying today, bought a small amount a few months ago, breaking even now. million dollar question is hold or sell. Think might hold seems to be good news forthcoming

bcklschaps · 06-11-2019 11:08pm

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Why would people not do trailing stop orders rather than selling (unless you need the money of course), that way you can avail of any ongoing upturn in the market/your shares while protecting most (hopefully) of your profits.

Stop orders (for buying or selling at a specific price point) can be handy if you haven't got time to check the stock markets regularly.... and see whats happening on any given day.

I don't have that problem ....I spend a few hours every weekday checking the stock market soo I can act almost immediately to take advantage (or NOT) of any situation that I see unfolding..

Cute Hoor · 07-11-2019 10:18am

StockTwat29 wrote: »

How far down would you set it?

Do you get back into the stock after your stop order is breached

You can set it by amount or %, I have used it with % and I used 10% but each to their own of course. If your share is $100 today and you set a 10% stop limit it will sell as soon as it hits lower than $90, if it goes to $120 next week it will sell as soon as it hits lower than $108, and so on. I have used it successfully a couple of times over the last few years, and bought back in cheaper because I believed in the stocks. It is not without risk though, a sudden 11% (or worse) drop in share price before recovering immediately means you have sold 'cheap' and can't get back in. It's a useful facility to have to be treated with caution, particularly risky when a company issues bad news with a massive sp drop before recovering - your order will activate before you become aware of the bad news so you might be hit for a 50% loss (or worse)

RedRochey · 07-11-2019 12:52pm

Can you use % stop loss on Degiro, can only see a box to enter £/$/€ amounts?

Wheety · 07-11-2019 1:43pm

StockTwat29 wrote: »

Can you use % stop loss on Degiro, can only see a box to enter £/$/€ amounts?

Only on the German site, at the moment.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 07-11-2019 1:47pm

Can Irish customers sign in to the german site?

Bob Harris · 07-11-2019 4:38pm

XMG wrote: »

Buy zone? 48 million or 80% of the companies outstanding come out of lockup on Tuesday 29th Oct so there’s that...

What are people's opinion of Beyond Meat?
Floated at $25 - up as high as $234 and now at $79 - lock out period is over and earnings were very good. It actually makes money. Sales guidance is at $270M for the year though it's valued at $4.5B which seems a crazy valuation on that type of turnover.

Is it still over hyped? Over sold or has found it's level?

FFVII · 07-11-2019 5:00pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

What are people's opinion of Beyond Meat?
Floated at $25 - up as high as $234 and now at $79 - lock out period is over and earnings were very good. It actually makes money. Sales guidance is at $270M for the year though it's valued at $4.5B which seems a crazy valuation on that type of turnover.

Is it still over hyped? Over sold or has found it's level?

The other company doing the same thing has far

better product.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 07-11-2019 5:09pm

Can someone tell me what I'm missing?

Bob Harris · 07-11-2019 5:26pm

FFVII wrote: »

The other company doing the same thing has far

better product.

That's one of my concerns. It's an easy product to copy too and there are some major players in that sector.

I still think it's way over-valued and realistically was fairly reasonably priced for the IPO. What happened after is like Tilray. Every once in a while there is an orgy over a particular stock and people ride the beejeesus out of it and then move on.

Bob Harris · 07-11-2019 5:35pm

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Can someone tell me what I'm missing?

If they actually tried to do anything meaningful about the debt it would tear the arse out of the US economy and beyond so they just keep propping it up.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 07-11-2019 5:39pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

If they actually tried to do anything meaningful about the debt it would tear the arse out of the US economy and beyond so they just keep propping it up.

So we've essentially gone from cyclical economies to a perpetual bull market?

Time to buy? :pac:

It's hard to watch.

Bob Harris · 07-11-2019 5:42pm

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

So we've essentially gone from cyclical economies to a perpetual bull market?

Time to buy? :pac:

It's hard to watch.

It will fall and fall hard. The usual domino effect. But then everyone will go to confession only to carry on committing the same sins once they've said their penance and in 10 years time the debt will be 33 trillion and no-one will care.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 07-11-2019 5:44pm

Any idea when it'll start to fall? Hate being on the sidelines.

Afraid to even DCA given everything is stacked against the market. It's like magic.

Bob Harris · 07-11-2019 5:50pm

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Any idea when it'll start to fall? Hate being on the sidelines.

Afraid to even DCA given everything is stacked against the market. It's like magic.

We're a year out from elections and a stock market crash wouldn't be good for Donald. Anyone's guess if he can keep it going till then. A China deal would be a help.

It might be interesting to look at the major US indices in the year before election year to see how the market has done historically.

There's a bit about it here...

https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526

q85dw7osi4lebg · 07-11-2019 6:56pm

Very interesting reading, thanks !

FFVII · 07-11-2019 9:07pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

That's one of my concerns. It's an easy product to copy too and there are some major players in that sector.

I still think it's way over-valued and realistically was fairly reasonably priced for the IPO. What happened after is like Tilray. Every once in a while there is an orgy over a particular stock and people ride the beejeesus out of it and then move on.

The other one can't really be copied (patented surly?) They modified a plant to make the blood coloured hemp thingy.

Bob Harris · 07-11-2019 10:35pm

FFVII wrote: »

The other one can't really be copied (patented surly?) They modified a plant to make the blood coloured hemp thingy.

"According to Beyond Meat's website, ingredients for its plant-based patties include water, pea protein isolate, expeller-pressed canola oil, refined coconut oil, rice protein and other natural flavors, including apple extract and beet juice extract (for color)"

Nothing out of the ordinary there.
I'm sure if there is some special ingredient any of the main competitors like Whole Foods will do a pretty good job of replicating it.

FFVII · 07-11-2019 11:15pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

"According to Beyond Meat's website, ingredients for its plant-based patties include water, pea protein isolate, expeller-pressed canola oil, refined coconut oil, rice protein and other natural flavors, including apple extract and beet juice extract (for color)"

Nothing out of the ordinary there.
I'm sure if there is some special ingredient any of the main competitors like Whole Foods will do a pretty good job of replicating it.

No, Impossible Meats is the other one. Turns out it's still privately owned for now.

They modified a plant.

Came across that there when I was trying to remember what it was.

crushproof · 08-11-2019 10:46am

I know Disney has been mentioned here before has anyone bought in? I've kept on meaning to pull the trigger but it's jumped up to $140 overnight after more positive results.

Could be a major player in the streaming world soon

RedRochey · 08-11-2019 12:10pm

Bought some in August after their last earnings report missed estimates, think Disney + will be huge

neris · 08-11-2019 1:53pm

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Can someone tell me what I'm missing?

Theres a good video on youtube from the WSJ (I think) on the repo markets in the US & the Feds involvement and the effect its having on the markets.

Mad_maxx · 10-11-2019 1:33pm

put 5 k in glanbia last week , up 10% , will sell below 12 , think we touch lows once more to confirm bottom , also need at least another half decent quarter in order to return to pre ( disastrous ) august report level

Mad_maxx · 10-11-2019 1:35pm

crushproof wrote: »

I know Disney has been mentioned here before has anyone bought in? I've kept on meaning to pull the trigger but it's jumped up to $140 overnight after more positive results.

Could be a major player in the streaming world soon

disney hasnt moved much this past three years yet the company is devouring everything and doing what microsoft did four or five years ago , reinventing itself in other areas

RedRochey · 11-11-2019 10:22am

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Can someone tell me what I'm missing?

Research from Bank of America shows the below fund flows year-to-date:

Cash + $549 billion
Credit/Fixed Income + $338 billion
Treasuries + $49 billion
Equity Redemptions: - $199 billion

Kind of shows that people aren't being greedy by getting out of equity funds

Bob Harris · 11-11-2019 10:48am

"It was actually, look, nobody was even hurt, a K-9 as they call, I call it a dog, a beautiful dog. A talented dog was injured and brought back. But we had no soldier injured and they did a lot of shooting and they did a lot of blasting. Even not going through the front door. You’d think, you go through the door. If you’re a normal person, you say, “Knock, knock, may I come in?” The fact is that they blasted their way into the house and a very heavy wall and it took them literally seconds. By the time those things went off, they had a beautiful big hole and they ran in and they got everybody by surprise. Unbelievably brilliant as fighters."

That folks if you bothered to read it is an excerpt of Donald Trump's press conference about the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi a few days back.

How the fear index isn't off the chart with this loon at the helm I do not know.

hottipper · 11-11-2019 6:12pm

Not seeing many trades to be had this week anyone buying?
was thinking about meituan dianping but want an entry of at least 10.25 looks like its topping out now so may get a retrace soon.

Parom · 15-11-2019 1:31pm

Hi all, new to the thread. Great thread, found lot of useful info as i started investing only in April. Anyone here a DGI/long term hold investor? Tax regime in Ireland certainly pushes you to focus on cap gains rather then divi income. What broker do you use for those short team trades/swing trades?

heffo500 · 15-11-2019 6:00pm

crushproof wrote: »

I know Disney has been mentioned here before has anyone bought in? I've kept on meaning to pull the trigger but it's jumped up to $140 overnight after more positive results.

Could be a major player in the streaming world soon

I pulled the trigger at $131.04 on the 25th last month so very happy with my timing so far.

hottipper · 16-11-2019 8:09pm

any thoughts on twitter i jumped in friday think there a 10% move in it. There is more room to the downside longer term and might even wick to 26 in the short term.
Might be a good one in a few weeks something to add to the watchlist.

whatever76 · 18-11-2019 12:20pm

Some rally going on with MSFT at the moment - pre market of 150 today !!

Taylor365 · 18-11-2019 7:12pm

whatever76 wrote: »

Some rally going on with MSFT at the moment - pre market of 150 today !!

To the moon
MSFT149.74-0.23-0.15%

hottipper · 18-11-2019 9:15pm

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Any suggestions as to best way to short the S&P from here ? Not interested in TVIX etc.

If trump gets impeached it could be a good short opportunity for the S&P :pac::pac::pac:

Bob Harris · 18-11-2019 9:39pm

The cannabis sector is getting hammered after a poor earnings quarter and a few with cashflow problems.
The only one that posted a decent earnings was Aphria for the second quarter running. They have since been dragged
down by the rest and with 600m cash and a mkt cap of 1b they are attractively priced. They have diverse income streams
both domestically and internationally has saved them from the underwhelming retail market in Canada. Don't think there can
be much more downside. Worth a look.

Treppen · 19-11-2019 8:55am

Bob Harris wrote: »

The cannabis sector is getting hammered after a poor earnings quarter and a few with cashflow problems.
The only one that posted a decent earnings was Aphria for the second quarter running. They have since been dragged
down by the rest and with 600m cash and a mkt cap of 1b they are attractively priced. They have diverse income streams
both domestically and internationally has saved them from the underwhelming retail market in Canada. Don't think there can
be much more downside. Worth a look.

It seems that where canopy goes the rest follow..

Bob Harris · 19-11-2019 9:33am

Looking at the Cronos, Canopy, Aurora and Aphria charts they all experienced strong SP revovery after lows in Nov/Dec the last two years. Not saying that history will repeat itself as the market conditions are different but after the dust settles or generally a poor ER I think there is scope for some recovery.

There is supposed be a vote this week to end federal marijuana prohibition. If passed it may act as a turning point for the MJ sector to recover some of the losses.

Bob Harris · 19-11-2019 4:15pm

If anyone is looking at the MJ companies in the previous post be especially wary of Aurora (ACB).
More info https://seekingalpha.com/article/4307682-aurora-cannabis-death-spiral-financing-disguise-longs-beware

I don't understand every detail but enough to know that it's not good. They are running out of money and fast
and major dilution looks imminent. Down another 4% today.

retalivity · 19-11-2019 7:51pm

Tripadvisor down to ~$28.40, a 7 year low after weak earnings. May be worth a punt, there's plenty of scope there for a rebound - Was $60+ this time last year.

hottipper · 19-11-2019 8:01pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

Looking at the Cronos, Canopy, Aurora and Aphria charts they all experienced strong SP revovery after lows in Nov/Dec the last two years. Not saying that history will repeat itself as the market conditions are different but after the dust settles or generally a poor ER I think there is scope for some recovery.

There is supposed be a vote this week to end federal marijuana prohibition. If passed it may act as a turning point for the MJ sector to recover some of the losses.

nice bounce off aphira +10% already thanks bob.
I got stopped out of my twitter trade broke even stop too tight anyways this gonna make up for it.

heffo500 · 19-11-2019 8:27pm

retalivity wrote: »

Tripadvisor down to ~$28.40, a 7 year low after weak earnings. May be worth a punt, there's plenty of scope there for a rebound - Was $60+ this time last year.

I'd stay away from TripAdvisor, what does TripAdvisor offer really that Google doesn't?

hottipper · 19-11-2019 9:49pm

Home Depot (HD) and Kohl’s (KSS) took a 20% dip also this getting exciting.

eyes on the s&p we entering flash crash territory?

Kamu · 20-11-2019 3:34pm

hottipper wrote: »

Home Depot (HD) and Kohl’s (KSS) took a 20% dip also this getting exciting.

eyes on the s&p we entering flash crash territory?

I'm up 13% On my S&P ETF hard to know whether to sell and wait for the crash (That I think is coming) or just whether the storm.

RedRochey · 20-11-2019 5:56pm

Kamu wrote: »

I'm up 13% On my S&P ETF hard to know whether to sell and wait for the crash (That I think is coming) or just whether the storm.

How long are you willing to wait?

Not saying there won't be a dip but trying to time the market is never a good idea

Jim2007 · 20-11-2019 8:59pm

Kamu wrote: »

I'm up 13% On my S&P ETF hard to know whether to sell and wait for the crash (That I think is coming) or just whether the storm.

Why do you expect they'll ring a bell when it reaches the top or the bottom??? TA always looses, if it did not asset managers would not need clients and the tools vendors would not need to get rich selling tools and data. A well allocate and diversified portfolio will do very nicely over 20 years or so.

Kamu · 21-11-2019 2:51pm

StockTwat29 wrote: »

How long are you willing to wait?

Not saying there won't be a dip but trying to time the market is never a good idea

That's my main concern, I would never think I could time the market, no one can.

But seeing these historic highs and all the talk surrounding the presidential election influencing the market makes you wonder!

Realistically, I'm willing to hold my position for life, as that is my main motivation for buying ETFs.

Irishder · 21-11-2019 7:37pm

Saying it again looks like PTI will have good gains in the coming days/weeks

Bob Harris · 21-11-2019 8:42pm

Irishder wrote: »

Saying it again looks like PTI will have good gains in the coming days/weeks

A small cap biotech, tell us more!

Irishder · 21-11-2019 9:34pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

A small cap biotech, tell us more!

Looks like big news coming for its cycstic fibrosis drug. In clinical trials at the moment and seems to be doing well.

Def worth a punt in my opinion. i have a small holding bought in at 0.98

Bob Harris · 21-11-2019 9:59pm

Irishder wrote: »

Looks like big news coming for its cycstic fibrosis drug. In clinical trials at the moment and seems to be doing well.

Def worth a punt in my opinion. i have a small holding bought in at 0.98

"Recent Highlights and Upcoming Milestones

Earlier this week, PTI announced the completion of enrollment in the Company's 28-day, Phase 2 study evaluating its proprietary doublet (PTI-808 and PTI-801) and triplet (PTI-808, PTI-801 and PTI-428) CFTR modulator combinations, at doses selected based on the totality of dose range finding data from approximately 250 CF subjects studied thus far. The study design targeted up to 30 F508del homozygous and up to 30 F508del heterozygous subjects. Study endpoints include safety, changes in sweat chloride concentration and changes in percent predicted FEV1 (ppFEV1). Due to rapid enrollment from centers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and New Zealand, data from the study are now expected in the fourth quarter of 2019 instead of the first quarter of 2020"

This looks to be the potential short term catalyst.

canonball5 · 22-11-2019 10:51am

Speaking of small cap bio companies, PAVMED is another I would look at. I know they have been mentioned in here before but they had a positive earnings report yesterday and expect FDA approval early next year on their Carpx device.

Share Picks 2019

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