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Share Picks 2019

littlevillage

No actual recommendations ....but just getting this Thread for 2019 started.

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Bob Harris

Looking at the Cronos, Canopy, Aurora and Aphria charts they all experienced strong SP revovery after lows in Nov/Dec the last two years. Not saying that history will repeat itself as the market conditions are different but after the dust settles or generally a poor ER I think there is scope for some recovery.

There is supposed be a vote this week to end federal marijuana prohibition. If passed it may act as a turning point for the MJ sector to recover some of the losses.

Treppen

Bob Harris wrote: »

The cannabis sector is getting hammered after a poor earnings quarter and a few with cashflow problems.
The only one that posted a decent earnings was Aphria for the second quarter running. They have since been dragged
down by the rest and with 600m cash and a mkt cap of 1b they are attractively priced. They have diverse income streams
both domestically and internationally has saved them from the underwhelming retail market in Canada. Don't think there can
be much more downside. Worth a look.

It seems that where canopy goes the rest follow..

Bob Harris

The cannabis sector is getting hammered after a poor earnings quarter and a few with cashflow problems.
The only one that posted a decent earnings was Aphria for the second quarter running. They have since been dragged
down by the rest and with 600m cash and a mkt cap of 1b they are attractively priced. They have diverse income streams
both domestically and internationally has saved them from the underwhelming retail market in Canada. Don't think there can
be much more downside. Worth a look.

hottipper

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Any suggestions as to best way to short the S&P from here ? Not interested in TVIX etc.

If trump gets impeached it could be a good short opportunity for the S&P :pac::pac::pac:

Taylor365

whatever76 wrote: »

Some rally going on with MSFT at the moment - pre market of 150 today !!

To the moon
MSFT149.74-0.23-0.15%

whatever76

Some rally going on with MSFT at the moment - pre market of 150 today !!

hottipper

any thoughts on twitter i jumped in friday think there a 10% move in it. There is more room to the downside longer term and might even wick to 26 in the short term.
Might be a good one in a few weeks something to add to the watchlist.

heffo500

crushproof wrote: »

I know Disney has been mentioned here before has anyone bought in? I've kept on meaning to pull the trigger but it's jumped up to $140 overnight after more positive results.

Could be a major player in the streaming world soon

I pulled the trigger at $131.04 on the 25th last month so very happy with my timing so far.

Parom

Hi all, new to the thread. Great thread, found lot of useful info as i started investing only in April. Anyone here a DGI/long term hold investor? Tax regime in Ireland certainly pushes you to focus on cap gains rather then divi income. What broker do you use for those short team trades/swing trades?

hottipper

Not seeing many trades to be had this week anyone buying?
was thinking about meituan dianping but want an entry of at least 10.25 looks like its topping out now so may get a retrace soon.

Bob Harris

"It was actually, look, nobody was even hurt, a K-9 as they call, I call it a dog, a beautiful dog. A talented dog was injured and brought back. But we had no soldier injured and they did a lot of shooting and they did a lot of blasting. Even not going through the front door. You’d think, you go through the door. If you’re a normal person, you say, “Knock, knock, may I come in?” The fact is that they blasted their way into the house and a very heavy wall and it took them literally seconds. By the time those things went off, they had a beautiful big hole and they ran in and they got everybody by surprise. Unbelievably brilliant as fighters."

That folks if you bothered to read it is an excerpt of Donald Trump's press conference about the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi a few days back.

How the fear index isn't off the chart with this loon at the helm I do not know.

RedRochey

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Can someone tell me what I'm missing?

Research from Bank of America shows the below fund flows year-to-date:

Cash + $549 billion
Credit/Fixed Income + $338 billion
Treasuries + $49 billion
Equity Redemptions: - $199 billion

Kind of shows that people aren't being greedy by getting out of equity funds

Mad_maxx

crushproof wrote: »

I know Disney has been mentioned here before has anyone bought in? I've kept on meaning to pull the trigger but it's jumped up to $140 overnight after more positive results.

Could be a major player in the streaming world soon

disney hasnt moved much this past three years yet the company is devouring everything and doing what microsoft did four or five years ago , reinventing itself in other areas

Mad_maxx

put 5 k in glanbia last week , up 10% , will sell below 12 , think we touch lows once more to confirm bottom , also need at least another half decent quarter in order to return to pre ( disastrous ) august report level

neris

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Can someone tell me what I'm missing?

Theres a good video on youtube from the WSJ (I think) on the repo markets in the US & the Feds involvement and the effect its having on the markets.

RedRochey

Bought some in August after their last earnings report missed estimates, think Disney + will be huge

crushproof

I know Disney has been mentioned here before has anyone bought in? I've kept on meaning to pull the trigger but it's jumped up to $140 overnight after more positive results.

Could be a major player in the streaming world soon

FFVII

Bob Harris wrote: »

"According to Beyond Meat's website, ingredients for its plant-based patties include water, pea protein isolate, expeller-pressed canola oil, refined coconut oil, rice protein and other natural flavors, including apple extract and beet juice extract (for color)"

Nothing out of the ordinary there.
I'm sure if there is some special ingredient any of the main competitors like Whole Foods will do a pretty good job of replicating it.

No, Impossible Meats is the other one. Turns out it's still privately owned for now.

They modified a plant.

Came across that there when I was trying to remember what it was.

Bob Harris

FFVII wrote: »

The other one can't really be copied (patented surly?) They modified a plant to make the blood coloured hemp thingy.

"According to Beyond Meat's website, ingredients for its plant-based patties include water, pea protein isolate, expeller-pressed canola oil, refined coconut oil, rice protein and other natural flavors, including apple extract and beet juice extract (for color)"

Nothing out of the ordinary there.
I'm sure if there is some special ingredient any of the main competitors like Whole Foods will do a pretty good job of replicating it.

FFVII

Bob Harris wrote: »

That's one of my concerns. It's an easy product to copy too and there are some major players in that sector.

I still think it's way over-valued and realistically was fairly reasonably priced for the IPO. What happened after is like Tilray. Every once in a while there is an orgy over a particular stock and people ride the beejeesus out of it and then move on.

The other one can't really be copied (patented surly?) They modified a plant to make the blood coloured hemp thingy.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Very interesting reading, thanks !

Bob Harris

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Any idea when it'll start to fall? Hate being on the sidelines.

Afraid to even DCA given everything is stacked against the market. It's like magic.

We're a year out from elections and a stock market crash wouldn't be good for Donald. Anyone's guess if he can keep it going till then. A China deal would be a help.

It might be interesting to look at the major US indices in the year before election year to see how the market has done historically.

There's a bit about it here...

https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526

q85dw7osi4lebg

Any idea when it'll start to fall? Hate being on the sidelines.

Afraid to even DCA given everything is stacked against the market. It's like magic.

Bob Harris

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

So we've essentially gone from cyclical economies to a perpetual bull market?

Time to buy? :pac:

It's hard to watch.

It will fall and fall hard. The usual domino effect. But then everyone will go to confession only to carry on committing the same sins once they've said their penance and in 10 years time the debt will be 33 trillion and no-one will care.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bob Harris wrote: »

If they actually tried to do anything meaningful about the debt it would tear the arse out of the US economy and beyond so they just keep propping it up.

So we've essentially gone from cyclical economies to a perpetual bull market?

Time to buy? :pac:

It's hard to watch.

Bob Harris

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Can someone tell me what I'm missing?

If they actually tried to do anything meaningful about the debt it would tear the arse out of the US economy and beyond so they just keep propping it up.

Bob Harris

FFVII wrote: »

The other company doing the same thing has far

better product.

That's one of my concerns. It's an easy product to copy too and there are some major players in that sector.

I still think it's way over-valued and realistically was fairly reasonably priced for the IPO. What happened after is like Tilray. Every once in a while there is an orgy over a particular stock and people ride the beejeesus out of it and then move on.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Can someone tell me what I'm missing?

FFVII

Bob Harris wrote: »

What are people's opinion of Beyond Meat?
Floated at $25 - up as high as $234 and now at $79 - lock out period is over and earnings were very good. It actually makes money. Sales guidance is at $270M for the year though it's valued at $4.5B which seems a crazy valuation on that type of turnover.

Is it still over hyped? Over sold or has found it's level?

The other company doing the same thing has far

better product.

Bob Harris

XMG wrote: »

Buy zone? 48 million or 80% of the companies outstanding come out of lockup on Tuesday 29th Oct so there’s that...

What are people's opinion of Beyond Meat?
Floated at $25 - up as high as $234 and now at $79 - lock out period is over and earnings were very good. It actually makes money. Sales guidance is at $270M for the year though it's valued at $4.5B which seems a crazy valuation on that type of turnover.

Is it still over hyped? Over sold or has found it's level?