Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch · 18-01-2021 6:53pm

Will we see Scottish fishermen barring English boats yet?

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1351208613625401347

Lemming · 18-01-2021 6:58pm

Lumen wrote: »

But whilst the fingers-in-the-ears approach might play out in England...will NI and Scotland let them off the hook? Could the SNP keep picking at the sore? At what point does letting Scotland rejoin the EU seem like a convenient way to shut them up?

Whatever about England, where tbh it's anyones guess as to which way it will go although likely not far at all, the damage to Scotlands relationship with the rest of the union is looking to be somewhat irrevocable. As has been said already on this threads previous incarnation (I think; or else the Scots indy thread), the biggest take-away from this whole farce for Scotland is that they can have as much devolution as they like but it's only window-dressing because they are not in charge of their affairs when push comes to shove. I cannot see a second Scottish referendum falling for more of the same Tory promises & FUD given that they [the Tories] have yet to honour the parliamentary outcome of the first referendum.

bob mcbob · 18-01-2021 7:05pm

Dymo wrote: »

In all reality what is the percentage of people in the UK worried about shell fish production, I'd say less that 1 percent and Boris knows that, it will blow over in a day or 2.

Maybe in England but not in Scotland. This is gathering steam thanks to the arrogance and incompetence seen in Westminster. This is not going to go away

The head of industry body Scotland Food & Drink has flagged the sector's anger over the UK Government's dismissal of Brexit-related woes for exporters as "teething problems".

https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19019340.brexit-scotland-food-drink-industry-fury-dismissal-uk-government-woes-exporters/

The British Meat Processors Association has said it is receiving a growing number of calls from meat companies highlighting the “plethora of problems” they have been experiencing at the borders.

The BMPA said the problems are now causing a "serious and sustained loss of trade with our biggest export partner".

https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19020231.meat-processors-join-brexit-protest-amid-serious-sustained-loss-trade/

I am also sensing fear from the Scottish Tories with this latest announcement.

THE “strength of the Union has never been so important,” Alister Jack has insisted, after Treasury figures showed that during the pandemic the UK Government has helped more than 90,000 Scottish businesses with loans worth almost £3.5 billion.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19018935.alister-jack-treasury-help-pandemic-shows-strength-union-never-important/

tubercolossus · 18-01-2021 7:07pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

There was a telling line in the O'Brien LBC interview with the fisherman. The fisherman said that an entire tuck was delayed for .7kg error in paperwork. O'Brien replied that those are the rules.

Yes, very telling. I'm prepared to bet that not once in the last 4 years did anyone on the UK side think to do some granular, grass-roots research on the basic exigencies of third country-dom. What is the experience on the ground like for non-EU European truckers? What happens to lorry freight at the Swiss border? O'Brien didn't just say "them's the rules". He also said "they've always been the rules". The Brits think the EU has cooked all this red tape up just for them, some sort of ridiculous persecution fantasy complex they have. It's also a superiority complex. They think the EU does nothing else except think about Britain and Brexit.

Also, someone made a good point about them having to join the Euro. I had forgotten that; it's probably a dealbreaker, alright. Sterling is the ultimate totem of English nationalism.

yagan · 18-01-2021 7:26pm

tubercolossus wrote: »

Also, someone made a good point about them having to join the Euro. I had forgotten that; it's probably a dealbreaker, alright. Sterling is the ultimate totem of English nationalism.

Ironically the £ symbol is derived from the Libra Pondo, a basic unit weight from the Roman Empire. The Italian Lira symbol had two horizontal bars across the L instead of the one in GBP.

Calling it the British Lira is entirely fitting.

Piehead · 18-01-2021 7:27pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not optimism so much as an appreciation that the Brexit vote and Johnson's win in 2019 were both coalitions. Now that Brexit has happened, nothing is holding them together and you can see the divisions appearing such as in prawnsambo's post. Johnson knows that fishermen have no further political value so he's turned on them.

I expect to see more of this.

First they came for the Unionists and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Unionist
Then they came for the Fishermen and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Fisherman
Then they came for the Farmers and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Farmer.....

tubercolossus · 18-01-2021 7:36pm

yagan wrote: »

Ironically the £ symbol is derived from the Libra Pondo, a basic unit weight from the Roman Empire. The Italian Lira symbol had two horizontal bars across the L instead of the one in GBP.

Calling it the British Lira is entirely fitting.

Soon to be similarly valued...

coolbeans · 18-01-2021 8:00pm

Just a ramble. I'm mad to get out of here after eight years. I got plenty out of it, a house, great experiences both professional and personal, met some wonderful people but Brexit is one of several reasons I wanna go home combined with the increasingly intolerant English Brexiters getting away with treating those who present facts as enemies all over the media. The right wing have pulled off a great trick in claiming that the media is biased against them which sickens me also. I can hear this in everyday interactions with people as they parrot Ferrari, Farage or Rees-Mogg soundbites. It's aural toxicity.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 8:00pm

Piehead wrote: »

First they came for the Unionists and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Unionist
Then they came for the Fishermen and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Fisherman
Then they came for the Farmers and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Farmer.....

I'm not sure what your point is here.

looksee · 18-01-2021 8:34pm

yagan wrote: »

Ironically the £ symbol is derived from the Libra Pondo, a basic unit weight from the Roman Empire. The Italian Lira symbol had two horizontal bars across the L instead of the one in GBP.

Calling it the British Lira is entirely fitting.

When did the £ lose it's second bar? It always used to have two?

Edit: Ah! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk%3APound_sign

yagan · 18-01-2021 9:01pm

looksee wrote: »

When did the £ lose it's second bar? It always used to have two?

Edit: Ah! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk%3APound_sign

Very interesting and it shows how much the £ symbol is deeply rooted in Europe. LS&D: Pounds, shillings and pence were a common money convention throughout Europe for millennia.

Considering that it is extremely ironic that the symbol of the anti EU party UKip is actually the most European of symbols. Just shows how much their desire is to go backwards, but it also shows that the Euro is actually a return to a continental norm.

breezy1985 · 18-01-2021 9:02pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

The Tory party will reply to the Fishermen the same way they have done to anything and everything that has been brought up in regards to issues with Brexit.

1st, the problem doesn't exist.
Then it does exist but not as bad as people are making out
Then, even if it is bad it mainly down to the individuals not taking the opportunities
Then if that doesn't wash, then it isn't really Brexit but a combination of other things, mainly the EU being really mean

By the time that is all worked through, some other massive issue has arisen and we start the process all over again

Fishermen are mostly working class people from areas like the West Country which are Tory voting areas but not the kind of places the Cameron's and Johnson would come from so just like every other group from outside the Eton bubble they will be dealt with by being told to shut the **** up and get over it and maybe retrain in cyber

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2021 10:01pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

I've been wondering what the future EU/UK relationship will morph into. I think one of a few changes occur, but am uncertain which will occur first.

1. UK rejoins the single market to get free movement of goods (and accepts FOM for people). The fact that Norway and Switzerland see this as good for them could persuade them that this would be OK, but then again, the ECJ - could they accept the oversight?

2. UK joins the customs union to ease the C&E problems at the border. Not sure on this one - the VAT problems and rules of origin might be easier.

3. UK and EU agree a services deal - or the EU turns the screw on the City of London. I think the latter is more likely.

4. The EU agrees a load of mini deals that favour the EU. Yes, I can see this, but then again, the EU have set their face against this. However , the EU are pragmatic.

I could see them rejoining the SM if they get a deal on the CoL Financial services, but not for while. A few years of rotting fish on the quayside and living on a diet of mackerel and chips, followed by Welsh lamb every Wednesday and Sunday.

Oh, how they will long for a decent claret or champagne, and just wish this would just go away.

Places like Turkey and Norway are not in the EU because they export a lot of food, raw materials and energy.

1. Because there's no rebate the UK will have to pay what it used to pay based on what Norway pays for it's access.

2. That's the Turkey deal. EU gets to decide Turkey's Free Trade Agreements except a few things like agriculture.

3. LOL What new things can the UK bring to the table to get a SERVICES deal over and above the existing TRADE deal ?

4. No. I'd expect the existing deal to be amended. From the EU's side having one deal means that it can be used as a very big stick if the UK decides to play silly buggers. The devil is in the detail so perhaps there would be some clarification documents. However, the UK has had to regulate all third party imports and exports using EU rules for yonks so they should have some idea of how it works.

Note the EU still hasn't signed off the deal.

Two sources have told RTÉ News that member states will insist on extending the deadline from the end of February until April.
...
RTÉ News also understands that Slovak Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, who is an executive vice president of the commission, will be the EU's representative on the new Joint Partnership Council (JPC) which will manage the new relationship with the UK.

Imreoir2 · 18-01-2021 10:03pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

I've been wondering what the future EU/UK relationship will morph into. I think one of a few changes occur, but am uncertain which will occur first.

1. UK rejoins the single market to get free movement of goods (and accepts FOM for people). The fact that Norway and Switzerland see this as good for them could persuade them that this would be OK, but then again, the ECJ - could they accept the oversight?

2. UK joins the customs union to ease the C&E problems at the border. Not sure on this one - the VAT problems and rules of origin might be easier.

3. UK and EU agree a services deal - or the EU turns the screw on the City of London. I think the latter is more likely.

4. The EU agrees a load of mini deals that favour the EU. Yes, I can see this, but then again, the EU have set their face against this. However , the EU are pragmatic.

I could see them rejoining the SM if they get a deal on the CoL Financial services, but not for while. A few years of rotting fish on the quayside and living on a diet of mackerel and chips, followed by Welsh lamb every Wednesday and Sunday.

Oh, how they will long for a decent claret or champagne, and just wish this would just go away.

I doubt we will see a load of mini deals, more likely that in the medium term the EU would use a planned review of the deal to discuss a few amendments in specific areas (and use the delay until a review to apply pressure).

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2021 10:13pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Will we see Scottish fishermen barring English boats yet?

Meanwhile over here
https://afloat.ie/port-news/fishing/item/49056-marine-minister-mcconalogue-opens-up-more-ports-to-irish-fishing-vessels-on-british-register

Minister for Marine Charlie McConalogue has come to the rescue of Donegal islanders with fishing boats registered in Northern Ireland who were blocked from landing into their nearest port by the Brexit deal.
...
Mr McConalogue says he has arranged for vessels on the British register to land into five additional ports - Greencastle, Burtonport and Rathmullan in Donegal, Ros-a-Mhíl in Galway and Howth in Co Dublin.
...
any UK Northern Ireland registered boats landing into any of the seven Irish ports will have to comply with additional documentary and more procedural requirements than before Brexit.

marno21 · 19-01-2021 1:28am

Sunak clashing with business over proposed corporation tax rises in the Budget: https://www.ft.com/content/ef8d075a-17b4-45cd-bda3-aab5e59062dc (paywall)

Trying to make up for the Brexit and pandemic related budget deficit by reducing the attractiveness for business to invest in the UK is really bizarre carry on. This is from a Tory government also.

You'd wonder what kind of strategy they are at here but from a high level it looks like they are completely devoid of any strategy.

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2021 2:17am

marno21 wrote: »

Sunak clashing with business over proposed corporation tax rises in the Budget: https://www.ft.com/content/ef8d075a-17b4-45cd-bda3-aab5e59062dc (paywall)

Trying to make up for the Brexit and pandemic related budget deficit by reducing the attractiveness for business to invest in the UK is really bizarre carry on. This is from a Tory government also.

You'd wonder what kind of strategy they are at here but from a high level it looks like they are completely devoid of any strategy.

All to be revealed in the next few weeks apparently. Led by a lad with Ulster Unionist roots.
https://www.politico.eu/article/john-bew-global-britain-uk-eu/

Datacore · 19-01-2021 2:35am

This just strikes me as more of the same: trying to run the U.K. as if it’s an IT startup that needs to think outside the box and be a disruptor of the status quo like a new app.

The downside of it is that it’s a centuries old set of countries and has a population of 66+ million people who can’t be written off like some failed social media platform or expected to turn their lives upside down to suit radical top down policies.

They’re trying to use radical, blue sky thinking but it’s being coupled with removing the foundations of the economy and of society. It goes a lot deeper than Brexit and seems to include a lot of extreme liberal economic type approaches that will just see a lot of people and businesses being unable to adapt.

Already looking at Brexit, it’s all high level notions without any substance or reality to what they’re doing. They absolutely turned the supply chains upside down and inside out and plenty of businesses simply won’t survive that.

You see the same thread running through the pandemic. Experts giving sensible advice were disregarded in favour of some notion of outsmarting the world with herd immunity, which turned out to be a complete disaster.

Then you’ve had things like ignoring the usage instructions for the BioNTech/ Pfizer vaccine, with an assumption that they know better than the people who developed it when it comes to spacing doses.

The list goes on and on.

Countries typically move forward in an incremental way, adapting to things and developing.

What they’re proposing here is a bit like what the communists tried with the Cultural Revolution, only in a modern, ultra capitalist way. It’s top down, social engineering that simply doesn’t want listen to anyone or be diverted from its highbrow dogma. It doesn’t take feedback from the public, or from business and that’s why I think it’s doomed to fail.

The consequences of it are likely to be as disastrous as any other project that’s tried to impose a shape on an economy and a society. There are simply too many variables and too many unknown and unknowable consequence to all of this and it will be the most vulnerable aspects of society that will suffer.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 5:52am

marno21 wrote: »

Sunak clashing with business over proposed corporation tax rises in the Budget: https://www.ft.com/content/ef8d075a-17b4-45cd-bda3-aab5e59062dc (paywall)

Trying to make up for the Brexit and pandemic related budget deficit by reducing the attractiveness for business to invest in the UK is really bizarre carry on. This is from a Tory government also.

You'd wonder what kind of strategy they are at here but from a high level it looks like they are completely devoid of any strategy.

Those tax rises make sense to me, since they affect profits rather than costs. They shouldn't affect struggling businesses, inward investment or startups since none of those make profits in the short term. The UK isn't a tax haven like Ireland is (was?) so shouldn't lose that business.

dogbert27 · 19-01-2021 5:56am

Datacore wrote: »

This just strikes me as more of the same: trying to run the U.K. as if it’s an IT startup that needs to think outside the box and be a disruptor of the status quo like a new app.

The downside of it is that it’s a centuries old set of countries and has a population of 66+ million people who can’t be written off like some failed social media platform or expected to turn their lives upside down to suit radical top down policies.

They’re trying to use radical, blue sky thinking but it’s being coupled with removing the foundations of the economy and of society. It goes a lot deeper than Brexit and seems to include a lot of extreme liberal economic type approaches that will just see a lot of people and businesses being unable to adapt.

Already looking at Brexit, it’s all high level notions without any substance or reality to what they’re doing. They absolutely turned the supply chains upside down and inside out and plenty of businesses simply won’t survive that.

You see the same thread running through the pandemic. Experts giving sensible advice were disregarded in favour of some notion of outsmarting the world with herd immunity, which turned out to be a complete disaster.

Then you’ve had things like ignoring the usage instructions for the BioNTech/ Pfizer vaccine, with an assumption that they know better than the people who developed it when it comes to spacing doses.

The list goes on and on.

Countries typically move forward in an incremental way, adapting to things and developing.

What they’re proposing here is a bit like what the communists tried with the Cultural Revolution, only in a modern, ultra capitalist way. It’s top down, social engineering that simply doesn’t want listen to anyone or be diverted from its highbrow dogma. It doesn’t take feedback from the public, or from business and that’s why I think it’s doomed to fail.

The consequences of it are likely to be as disastrous as any other project that’s tried to impose a shape on an economy and a society. There are simply too many variables and too many unknown and unknowable consequence to all of this and it will be the most vulnerable aspects of society that will suffer.

But then you get pieces like this "Amazing but true..."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9158151/DOMINIC-LAWSON-Amazing-true-leading-world-fight-against-virus.html

Britain leading the world in the fight against the virus. It makes you sick to see such arrogance for a country who's government is still fumbling it's way through it's own mess it created from it's early responses

Datacore · 19-01-2021 6:06am

A constant need to engage in self-flattery tends to be a sign of insecurity and a fragile ego.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 6:11am

Some light entertainment courtesy of Tony Parson's take on border sandwich-gate.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13763001/after-britain-is-vaccinated-save-europe/

And no matter that in the winter of 1945, when the Dutch people were starving under Nazi occupation in what they call their Hongerwinter — hunger winter — RAF Lancasters bravely flew low to drop food parcels in broad, deadly, flak-filled daylight.
...
I can already imagine the scenes at Spanish holiday destinations as UK passport holders are ritually humiliated at immigration control, herded to one side as if they had just jumped off the back of a leaky dinghy for the crime of holding a non-EU passport.

dogbert27 · 19-01-2021 6:25am

Lumen wrote: »

Those tax rises make sense to me, since they affect profits rather than costs. They shouldn't affect struggling businesses, inward investment or startups since none of those make profits in the short term. The UK isn't a tax haven like Ireland is (was?) so shouldn't lose that business.

One of the strategies for Brexit though was that the UK can reduce it's corporation tax to attract more business.

The really big businesses already know how to play the systems (ala Trump), it's the medium and small businesses already in existence that will be affected and it could be a potential deterrent to new business.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 6:42am

dogbert27 wrote: »

One of the strategies for Brexit though was that the UK can reduce it's corporation tax to attract more business.

The really big businesses already know how to play the systems (ala Trump), it's the medium and small businesses already in existence that will be affected and it could be a potential deterrent to new business.

Small businesses care more about tax avoidance through entrepreneurs relief (cut from 10m to 1m in 2020) and pensions (limit mooted to be cut from 40k to 25k). It's mostly the IR35 dodgers who care about the old percentage point on corp tax.

Agree about not delivering on Brexit promises, but pro cyclical "book balancing" is part of their cult, a rather Germanic preoccupation ironically.

Still, I can't see the downside to taxing profits in a crisis, compared to the alternative means of controlling deficits like cuts to benefits for people made unemployed by government policy.

Peregrinus · 19-01-2021 6:44am

The problem with investing in a business enterprise is that there's a signficant downside risk - up to and including the entire loss of the whole of the capital invested, without ever seeing any return at all.

The investment nevertheless goes ahead if the downside risks are, in the judgment of the investor, more than offset by the upside possiblities, whether in the form of an income stream, or a valuable capital asset, or both.

But, the more you tax the income stream and/or the capital gains, the more you reduce the upside possiblities, which shifts the balance between upside (now smaller) and downside (as big as ever, or possibly bigger). So, the higher your taxes on business profits and/or capital gains, the less investment you should have.

Of course, that's just a very simplified model. In the real world business investment decisions are influenced by many more factors - the supply of capital seeking investment opportunities, the availability of alternative investment opportunties, etc, etc. Plus of course Brexit will distort investment decisions in other ways - raising barriers to international trade makes investment in businesses which engage in international trade less attractive, but it may become more attractive to investment in businesses serving the domestic market which now hope to be protected from international competition, in infrastructure business that hope to get work from "levelling-up" projects, etc.

But, in general, all other things being equal, raising business taxes will tend to reduce investment in business.

But I don't think Sunak's goal here is to stimulate investment. He may be more focussed on government finances than on the national economy. He wants to raise revenue to pay for some of the extraordinary pandemic-related expenditure, and so reduce the budget deficit.

And this makes a certain kind of sense. Increases in taxes on corporate profits only affects those corporations that are actually making profits. And any corporation that is making profits during the pandemic is, by definition, one of those that has suffered the least from the pandemic. And there's an argument from solidarity for the notion that those who have not suffered economically from the pandemic (or who may even have benefitt from it) have an obligation to pay more for the support of those who were less fortunate. Arguments froms solidarity are not very Thatcherite, but needs must.

Datacore · 19-01-2021 6:56am

It makes sense if you assume capital isn’t mobile and businesses aren’t just going to disappear.

Also if it’s applied to businesses that are already struggling with all sorts of new regulatory costs introduced by Brexit, it could end up driving many to the wall.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 7:02am

Ireland's low corp taxes haven't done much to boost entrepreneurship, which IMO is rather weak in Ireland despite pensions and entrepreneurs relief also being favourable.

You can accumulate at least 3.2m of wealth whilst paying only about 22% tax via these reliefs, and yet young, talented people too often just want to work for multinationals.

In any case, aside from one man band tax avoidance, people don't generally start businesses with an eye on corp tax. It's a compulsion.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 7:04am

Datacore wrote: »

It makes sense if you assume capital isn’t mobile and businesses aren’t just going to disappear.

Also if it’s applied to businesses that are already struggling with all sorts of new regulatory costs introduced by Brexit, it could end up driving many to the wall.

Struggling businesses don't make taxable profits.

Peregrinus · 19-01-2021 7:05am

Lumen wrote: »

. . . In any case, aside from one man band tax avoidance, people don't generally start businesses with an eye on corp tax. It's a compulsion.

Yeah, but most business investment is not into startups. The great bulk of it is expansion of existing businesses.

Datacore · 19-01-2021 7:16am

Lumen wrote: »

Struggling businesses don't make taxable profits.

Those may be the ones who don’t leave though...

Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

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