Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 3:35pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Maybe you're right. In fact, I hope you're right. But all the indications are that there are sufficient blind faith voters to ensure that the delusion continues.

The indicatons are, at the time of writing, of very limited use.

A better one might be the fishing industry which was pro-Leave now seeing what that actually entails. Far too late of course but they're surely not parroting the Express talking points about global Britain any more.

yagan · 18-01-2021 3:36pm

Datacore wrote: »

Biden may actually end up playing a role in setting a more pragmatic and sane tone in terms of trade and diplomacy generally. I think the Tories have been getting away with a lot both by riding on Trump’s coat tails (even if he was barely aware of them) but also because the focus was on the utter circus of lunacy coming out of the USA.

I think over the coming weeks and months as the US (hopefully) calms down and also as the COVID situation might begin to resolve, the Tories may be found to be swimming with no shorts as the tide goes out.

It will be very interesting to see how No10 greets Biden's term, Britain isn't really of much use to the USA outside of the EU so initially there'll be an affirmation of previous alliance.

If Biden makes an address to the EU parliament the centre piece of his first trip to Europe it would certainly put Brexiters in their box.

Strazdas · 18-01-2021 3:38pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's not a wild exaggeration. A majority of voters voted Leave. In answer to the polling question 'How would you vote in a second referendum?', there has been a steady 42% Leave vote from June 2016 to December 2020. The party that espoused a hard Brexit in a Brexit dominated election got 44% and a majority of 80 seats.

How do you think a fragmented, milk and water Labour party are going to unseat a populist and cohesively Brexiteer Tory party with a solid cohort of Brexiteer minded voters?

One thing getting overlooked is that the Brexit Tories are a firmly right wing / hard right / far right English nationalist party - they've hoovered up all the BNP and UKIP support. It's hard to see how anyone of that general right wing persuasion will vote for anyone but them in the next election. Witness how strongly Trump's support held up.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 3:39pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The indicatons are, at the time of writing, of very limited use.

A better one might be the fishing industry which was pro-Leave now seeing what that actually entails. Far too late of course but they're surely not parroting the Express talking points about global Britain any more.

They're not but fishing was totemic and, as such, garners a lot of media attention. It essentially comes down to this. Assuming Brexit hits hard economically, does the average Joe blame the Tories and Brexit or does he buy into nationalism and the anti EU spin.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 3:39pm

Strazdas wrote: »

One thing getting overlooked is that the Brexit Tories are a firmly right wing / hard right / far right English nationalist party - they've hoovered up all the BNP and UKIP support. It's hard to see how anyone of that general right wing persuasion will vote for anyone but them in the next election. Witness how strongly Trump's support held up.

Exactly. What we are witnessing is populism hiding in plain sight.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 3:44pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They're not but fishing was totemic and, as such, garners a lot of media attention. It essentially comes down to this. Assuming Brexit hits hard economically, does the average Joe blame the Tories and Brexit or does he buy into nationalism and the anti EU spin.

Anti-EU spin is now pointless though. The problem with the Brexiters going on and on about taking back control is that now they're in control. The whole point of blaming the EU was so that the Conservative party could do what it wanted and avoid responsibility. That is no longer the case.

20silkcut · 18-01-2021 3:49pm

Yes farage said Britain wanted to leave the EU and trade with the world.
So there they go trade with the world let them send their shell fish to the four corners of the world.
The EU aren’t stopping them doing that. They can go ahead and do it right now.
How on earth can they blame the EU for any of their current difficulties?
They should be challenged on this blame game at every turn.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 3:54pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Anti-EU spin is now pointless though. The problem with the Brexiters going on and on about taking back control is that now they're in control. The whole point of blaming the EU was so that the Conservative party could do what it wanted and avoid responsibility. That is no longer the case.

Hopefully. We'll see.

Lumen · 18-01-2021 3:55pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

IA lot of people who voted for Brexit aren't even Tories. They're conservatives who detest the Conservative party so they vote Labour

Correct, Brexit is not a traditional left/right issue, despite being a Tory project.

From Dec 2017, although there are loads of such analyses.

After Brexit, it’s no longer about “left” and “right”—it’s now social liberals vs social conservatives
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/after-brexit-its-no-longer-about-left-and-right-its-now-social-liberals-vs-social-conservatives

That piece was written by John Curtice, who was on the Bunker podcast yesterday.

https://play.acast.com/s/the-bunker/bonus-johncurticeonpoliticsafterthepandemic

ambro25 · 18-01-2021 3:55pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Are they? We've less than a month into the new status quo. I think it's too early to tell.

I agree with your take on this, but I think also, that people are underestimating the danger for heightened populism/nationalism in the UK, arising from what could all too soon turn into a critical mass of cascading business failures.

Scottish shellfish is a tiny top aspect of a massive iceberg of manufacturing and service UK SMEs with a cashflow on its ar5e after 12-ish months of badly-mismanaged Covid mitigation, now faced with a barrage of ever-increasing, stepped-like NTBs that are getting gradually ramped up *very* fast (as timescales go). We're starting to hear about pork farmers now, and my guess is that we're going to get ever more of these, ever faster, as the inter-connectedness of a first world economy plays out.

Remember it's still light touch customs until 1st April, and nobody over there has even mentioned ISPM15, which will likely be a massive issue, because independent from and cumulative to whatever customs and tariff issue(s) befall what goods are on the pallet). Now Johnson is already promising compo to the Scottish fishermen for pacification, at that rate what kind of bill is HMG likely to end up with by mid-April..land what if it doesn't pay in the meantime?

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 4:10pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hopefully. We'll see.

2019 taught me not to put too much faith in predictions. That said, soon as I can trick someone in Ireland or the continent into offering me a decent job and covid dies down (so flights operate again) I'm out.

Lumen wrote: »

Correct, Brexit is not a traditional left/right issue, despite being a Tory project.

From Dec 2017, although there are loads of such analyses.

After Brexit, it’s no longer about “left” and “right”—it’s now social liberals vs social conservatives
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/after-brexit-its-no-longer-about-left-and-right-its-now-social-liberals-vs-social-conservatives

That piece was written by John Curtice, who was on the Bunker podcast yesterday.

https://play.acast.com/s/the-bunker/bonus-johncurticeonpoliticsafterthepandemic

It seems very much to me that Brexit is the UK's primary and all-consuming culture war issue. As with such things, it's why either side refuses to back down and why Leave voters who may regret the decision still stand by it.

What I'm wondering is how much of the Leave & Tory voting bloc (if any) softens come 2024 and if it does, can Starmer or the then Labour leader capitalise? It's no longer academic or abstract. This is reality now. It's one thing to slag the EU off while benefitting from it, quite another when you're out and your recovery from covid is slower than the rest of the continent's.

ambro25 wrote: »

I agree with your take on this, but I think also, that people are underestimating the danger for heightened populism/nationalism in the UK, arising from what could all too soon turn into a critical mass of cascading business failures.

Scottish shellfish is a tiny top aspect of a massive iceberg of manufacturing and service UK SMEs with a cashflow on its ar5e after 12-ish months of badly-mismanaged Covid mitigation, now faced with a barrage of ever-increasing, stepped-like NTBs that are getting gradually ramped up *very* fast (as timescales go). We're starting to hear about pork farmers now, and my guess is that we're going to get ever more of these, ever faster, as the inter-connectedness of a first world economy plays out.

Remember it's still light touch customs until 1st April, and nobody over there has even mentioned ISPM15, which will likely be a massive issue, because independent from and cumulative to whatever customs and tariff issue(s) befall what goods are on the pallet). Now Johnson is already promising compo to the Scottish fishermen for pacification, at that rate what kind of bill is HMG likely to end up with by mid-April..land what if it doesn't pay in the meantime?

I think that covid has dampened any sort of lurch towards populism for the government. Not prevented by any stretch but Johnson can't bluster and bluff his way around a problem that requires a solution devised by experts. Hopefully, it's also reminded the great British public that experts have some value.

This could all change of course but at the present moment I think that there are too many variables and too many unsettled questions to know how the public are going to feel about Brexit. It's literally been years since anyone aside from a miniscule coterie of Tory diehard has pretended that there's any benefit. Instead, it's just a way to shut down Labour and any other opposition.

Were it not for covid, I think there would be a much greater danger of a lurch to the populist right. I'd a friend here ready to jack in a good job in Whitehall to go answer phones in Kilkenny he was that worried about such a lurch. It could still happen but I'm hoping that the pandemic if nothing else prompts a bit of serious introspection among people in the UK. It's long overdue.

peter kern · 18-01-2021 4:51pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Anti-EU spin is now pointless though. The problem with the Brexiters going on and on about taking back control is that now they're in control. The whole point of blaming the EU was so that the Conservative party could do what it wanted and avoid responsibility. That is no longer the case.

they will call it a witch hunt by the eu, populists never blame themselves.

prawnsambo · 18-01-2021 4:54pm

peter kern wrote: »

they will call it a witch hunt by the eu, populists never blame themselves.

Well Johnson is blaming the fishermen not filling out the forms correctly for their problems: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-seafood-sales-boris-johnson-b1788936.html

Circular firing squad deployed

ambro25 · 18-01-2021 4:57pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

(...)

Were it not for covid, I think there would be a much greater danger of a lurch to the populist right. I'd a friend here ready to jack in a good job in Whitehall to go answer phones in Kilkenny he was that worried about such a lurch. It could still happen but I'm hoping that the pandemic if nothing else prompts a bit of serious introspection among people in the UK. It's long overdue.

I wish I had your optimism.

Those truckers demonstrating today were fined £200 under the Covid travel restrictions: we know well how the populist right handled Dom's travelling indiscretions (nowt to see here) and that SNP Minister's (hang her), so it'll be interesting to see what follow-up those fines get.

EDIT: doubly so, in light of prawnsambo's post above.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 5:14pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well Johnson is blaming the fishermen not filling out the forms correctly for their problems: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-seafood-sales-boris-johnson-b1788936.html

Circular firing squad deployed

So they are just "teething problems", it's the fishermen's fault for "misunderstanding" and the EU's fault because their restaurants aren't open. And Brexit has given fishermen huge "opportunities". Could have written the script myself.

looksee · 18-01-2021 5:18pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well Johnson is blaming the fishermen not filling out the forms correctly for their problems: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-seafood-sales-boris-johnson-b1788936.html

Circular firing squad deployed

Forms? What forms?

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 5:31pm

ambro25 wrote: »

I wish I had your optimism.

Those truckers demonstrating today were fined £200 under the Covid travel restrictions: we know well how the populist right handled Dom's travelling indiscretions (nowt to see here) and that SNP Minister's (hang her), so it'll be interesting to see what follow-up those fines get.

EDIT: doubly so, in light of prawnsambo's post above.

It's not optimism so much as an appreciation that the Brexit vote and Johnson's win in 2019 were both coalitions. Now that Brexit has happened, nothing is holding them together and you can see the divisions appearing such as in prawnsambo's post. Johnson knows that fishermen have no further political value so he's turned on them.

I expect to see more of this.

Lumen · 18-01-2021 5:34pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It seems very much to me that Brexit is the UK's primary and all-consuming culture war issue.

It was. It just isn't any more, in England at least. The headlines are still rolling but the rage has gone, because the Brexiters got what they wanted (end to FOM) and the Remainers don't see any way back for several elections.

For Labour and their supporters Brexit is just one more thing that Tories have screwed up. It's become an implementation problem that can be used to diminish Tory approval ratings and get Labour back in power, but not with a mandate to re-join the EU. That is toxic.

For the Tories...well. My concern is that they're not really in control of the direction of travel. Right now there are zero practical upsides to Brexit and loads of downsides. A way out is to implement some significant policy changes on the back of this new order, cite those as benefits and play down the trade barriers.

And the obvious one is immigration controls, e.g. the points-based system. Unfortunately that is a stupid policy (because immigrants create economic growth) and runs counter to normal right-wing laissez faire economic doctrine, because it requires the State to direct the economy. But maybe they are dumb enough to think they can pull it off.

So either the Tories double-down on immigration some how, or....get rid of Boris and try and move the country on. I think this second option is more likely. They'll wear him like a flak jacket for a few more months and then cast him off when the Covid crisis is over.

The country will then attempt a kind of mass self-hypnosis to forget the whole thing. Wonks will continue to point out divergent growth trajectories between the EU and UK, but the British electorate haven't really cared for those comparison before, and lacking an English political party to carry the issue into mainstream politics (because making people feel bad about their country is not a winning policy) it will just be ignored.

But whilst the fingers-in-the-ears approach might play out in England...will NI and Scotland let them off the hook? Could the SNP keep picking at the sore? At what point does letting Scotland rejoin the EU seem like a convenient way to shut them up?

Ramble ends.

Dymo · 18-01-2021 5:58pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-shellfish-lorries-park-near-downing-street-as-new-rules-cause-severe-delays-at-eu-border-12191385

Lorries jamming up traffic near parliament, can’t wait till a load of rotten shellfish is dumped on street. Reply from Boris is typical wiffle waffle.

In all reality what is the percentage of people in the UK worried about shell fish production, I'd say less that 1 percent and Boris knows that, it will blow over in a day or 2.

An Ciarraioch · 18-01-2021 6:53pm

Will we see Scottish fishermen barring English boats yet?

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1351208613625401347

Lemming · 18-01-2021 6:58pm

Lumen wrote: »

But whilst the fingers-in-the-ears approach might play out in England...will NI and Scotland let them off the hook? Could the SNP keep picking at the sore? At what point does letting Scotland rejoin the EU seem like a convenient way to shut them up?

Whatever about England, where tbh it's anyones guess as to which way it will go although likely not far at all, the damage to Scotlands relationship with the rest of the union is looking to be somewhat irrevocable. As has been said already on this threads previous incarnation (I think; or else the Scots indy thread), the biggest take-away from this whole farce for Scotland is that they can have as much devolution as they like but it's only window-dressing because they are not in charge of their affairs when push comes to shove. I cannot see a second Scottish referendum falling for more of the same Tory promises & FUD given that they [the Tories] have yet to honour the parliamentary outcome of the first referendum.

bob mcbob · 18-01-2021 7:05pm

Dymo wrote: »

In all reality what is the percentage of people in the UK worried about shell fish production, I'd say less that 1 percent and Boris knows that, it will blow over in a day or 2.

Maybe in England but not in Scotland. This is gathering steam thanks to the arrogance and incompetence seen in Westminster. This is not going to go away

The head of industry body Scotland Food & Drink has flagged the sector's anger over the UK Government's dismissal of Brexit-related woes for exporters as "teething problems".

https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19019340.brexit-scotland-food-drink-industry-fury-dismissal-uk-government-woes-exporters/

The British Meat Processors Association has said it is receiving a growing number of calls from meat companies highlighting the “plethora of problems” they have been experiencing at the borders.

The BMPA said the problems are now causing a "serious and sustained loss of trade with our biggest export partner".

https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19020231.meat-processors-join-brexit-protest-amid-serious-sustained-loss-trade/

I am also sensing fear from the Scottish Tories with this latest announcement.

THE “strength of the Union has never been so important,” Alister Jack has insisted, after Treasury figures showed that during the pandemic the UK Government has helped more than 90,000 Scottish businesses with loans worth almost £3.5 billion.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19018935.alister-jack-treasury-help-pandemic-shows-strength-union-never-important/

tubercolossus · 18-01-2021 7:07pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

There was a telling line in the O'Brien LBC interview with the fisherman. The fisherman said that an entire tuck was delayed for .7kg error in paperwork. O'Brien replied that those are the rules.

Yes, very telling. I'm prepared to bet that not once in the last 4 years did anyone on the UK side think to do some granular, grass-roots research on the basic exigencies of third country-dom. What is the experience on the ground like for non-EU European truckers? What happens to lorry freight at the Swiss border? O'Brien didn't just say "them's the rules". He also said "they've always been the rules". The Brits think the EU has cooked all this red tape up just for them, some sort of ridiculous persecution fantasy complex they have. It's also a superiority complex. They think the EU does nothing else except think about Britain and Brexit.

Also, someone made a good point about them having to join the Euro. I had forgotten that; it's probably a dealbreaker, alright. Sterling is the ultimate totem of English nationalism.

yagan · 18-01-2021 7:26pm

tubercolossus wrote: »

Also, someone made a good point about them having to join the Euro. I had forgotten that; it's probably a dealbreaker, alright. Sterling is the ultimate totem of English nationalism.

Ironically the £ symbol is derived from the Libra Pondo, a basic unit weight from the Roman Empire. The Italian Lira symbol had two horizontal bars across the L instead of the one in GBP.

Calling it the British Lira is entirely fitting.

Piehead · 18-01-2021 7:27pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not optimism so much as an appreciation that the Brexit vote and Johnson's win in 2019 were both coalitions. Now that Brexit has happened, nothing is holding them together and you can see the divisions appearing such as in prawnsambo's post. Johnson knows that fishermen have no further political value so he's turned on them.

I expect to see more of this.

First they came for the Unionists and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Unionist
Then they came for the Fishermen and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Fisherman
Then they came for the Farmers and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Farmer.....

tubercolossus · 18-01-2021 7:36pm

yagan wrote: »

Ironically the £ symbol is derived from the Libra Pondo, a basic unit weight from the Roman Empire. The Italian Lira symbol had two horizontal bars across the L instead of the one in GBP.

Calling it the British Lira is entirely fitting.

Soon to be similarly valued...

coolbeans · 18-01-2021 8:00pm

Just a ramble. I'm mad to get out of here after eight years. I got plenty out of it, a house, great experiences both professional and personal, met some wonderful people but Brexit is one of several reasons I wanna go home combined with the increasingly intolerant English Brexiters getting away with treating those who present facts as enemies all over the media. The right wing have pulled off a great trick in claiming that the media is biased against them which sickens me also. I can hear this in everyday interactions with people as they parrot Ferrari, Farage or Rees-Mogg soundbites. It's aural toxicity.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 8:00pm

Piehead wrote: »

First they came for the Unionists and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Unionist
Then they came for the Fishermen and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Fisherman
Then they came for the Farmers and I did not speak out -
Because I was not a Farmer.....

I'm not sure what your point is here.

looksee · 18-01-2021 8:34pm

yagan wrote: »

Ironically the £ symbol is derived from the Libra Pondo, a basic unit weight from the Roman Empire. The Italian Lira symbol had two horizontal bars across the L instead of the one in GBP.

Calling it the British Lira is entirely fitting.

When did the £ lose it's second bar? It always used to have two?

Edit: Ah! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk%3APound_sign

yagan · 18-01-2021 9:01pm

looksee wrote: »

When did the £ lose it's second bar? It always used to have two?

Edit: Ah! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk%3APound_sign

Very interesting and it shows how much the £ symbol is deeply rooted in Europe. LS&D: Pounds, shillings and pence were a common money convention throughout Europe for millennia.

Considering that it is extremely ironic that the symbol of the anti EU party UKip is actually the most European of symbols. Just shows how much their desire is to go backwards, but it also shows that the Euro is actually a return to a continental norm.

breezy1985 · 18-01-2021 9:02pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

The Tory party will reply to the Fishermen the same way they have done to anything and everything that has been brought up in regards to issues with Brexit.

1st, the problem doesn't exist.
Then it does exist but not as bad as people are making out
Then, even if it is bad it mainly down to the individuals not taking the opportunities
Then if that doesn't wash, then it isn't really Brexit but a combination of other things, mainly the EU being really mean

By the time that is all worked through, some other massive issue has arisen and we start the process all over again

Fishermen are mostly working class people from areas like the West Country which are Tory voting areas but not the kind of places the Cameron's and Johnson would come from so just like every other group from outside the Eton bubble they will be dealt with by being told to shut the **** up and get over it and maybe retrain in cyber

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2021 10:01pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

I've been wondering what the future EU/UK relationship will morph into. I think one of a few changes occur, but am uncertain which will occur first.

1. UK rejoins the single market to get free movement of goods (and accepts FOM for people). The fact that Norway and Switzerland see this as good for them could persuade them that this would be OK, but then again, the ECJ - could they accept the oversight?

2. UK joins the customs union to ease the C&E problems at the border. Not sure on this one - the VAT problems and rules of origin might be easier.

3. UK and EU agree a services deal - or the EU turns the screw on the City of London. I think the latter is more likely.

4. The EU agrees a load of mini deals that favour the EU. Yes, I can see this, but then again, the EU have set their face against this. However , the EU are pragmatic.

I could see them rejoining the SM if they get a deal on the CoL Financial services, but not for while. A few years of rotting fish on the quayside and living on a diet of mackerel and chips, followed by Welsh lamb every Wednesday and Sunday.

Oh, how they will long for a decent claret or champagne, and just wish this would just go away.

Places like Turkey and Norway are not in the EU because they export a lot of food, raw materials and energy.

1. Because there's no rebate the UK will have to pay what it used to pay based on what Norway pays for it's access.

2. That's the Turkey deal. EU gets to decide Turkey's Free Trade Agreements except a few things like agriculture.

3. LOL What new things can the UK bring to the table to get a SERVICES deal over and above the existing TRADE deal ?

4. No. I'd expect the existing deal to be amended. From the EU's side having one deal means that it can be used as a very big stick if the UK decides to play silly buggers. The devil is in the detail so perhaps there would be some clarification documents. However, the UK has had to regulate all third party imports and exports using EU rules for yonks so they should have some idea of how it works.

Note the EU still hasn't signed off the deal.

Two sources have told RTÉ News that member states will insist on extending the deadline from the end of February until April.
...
RTÉ News also understands that Slovak Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, who is an executive vice president of the commission, will be the EU's representative on the new Joint Partnership Council (JPC) which will manage the new relationship with the UK.

Imreoir2 · 18-01-2021 10:03pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

I've been wondering what the future EU/UK relationship will morph into. I think one of a few changes occur, but am uncertain which will occur first.

1. UK rejoins the single market to get free movement of goods (and accepts FOM for people). The fact that Norway and Switzerland see this as good for them could persuade them that this would be OK, but then again, the ECJ - could they accept the oversight?

2. UK joins the customs union to ease the C&E problems at the border. Not sure on this one - the VAT problems and rules of origin might be easier.

3. UK and EU agree a services deal - or the EU turns the screw on the City of London. I think the latter is more likely.

4. The EU agrees a load of mini deals that favour the EU. Yes, I can see this, but then again, the EU have set their face against this. However , the EU are pragmatic.

I could see them rejoining the SM if they get a deal on the CoL Financial services, but not for while. A few years of rotting fish on the quayside and living on a diet of mackerel and chips, followed by Welsh lamb every Wednesday and Sunday.

Oh, how they will long for a decent claret or champagne, and just wish this would just go away.

I doubt we will see a load of mini deals, more likely that in the medium term the EU would use a planned review of the deal to discuss a few amendments in specific areas (and use the delay until a review to apply pressure).

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2021 10:13pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Will we see Scottish fishermen barring English boats yet?

Meanwhile over here
https://afloat.ie/port-news/fishing/item/49056-marine-minister-mcconalogue-opens-up-more-ports-to-irish-fishing-vessels-on-british-register

Minister for Marine Charlie McConalogue has come to the rescue of Donegal islanders with fishing boats registered in Northern Ireland who were blocked from landing into their nearest port by the Brexit deal.
...
Mr McConalogue says he has arranged for vessels on the British register to land into five additional ports - Greencastle, Burtonport and Rathmullan in Donegal, Ros-a-Mhíl in Galway and Howth in Co Dublin.
...
any UK Northern Ireland registered boats landing into any of the seven Irish ports will have to comply with additional documentary and more procedural requirements than before Brexit.

marno21 · 19-01-2021 1:28am

Sunak clashing with business over proposed corporation tax rises in the Budget: https://www.ft.com/content/ef8d075a-17b4-45cd-bda3-aab5e59062dc (paywall)

Trying to make up for the Brexit and pandemic related budget deficit by reducing the attractiveness for business to invest in the UK is really bizarre carry on. This is from a Tory government also.

You'd wonder what kind of strategy they are at here but from a high level it looks like they are completely devoid of any strategy.

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2021 2:17am

marno21 wrote: »

Sunak clashing with business over proposed corporation tax rises in the Budget: https://www.ft.com/content/ef8d075a-17b4-45cd-bda3-aab5e59062dc (paywall)

Trying to make up for the Brexit and pandemic related budget deficit by reducing the attractiveness for business to invest in the UK is really bizarre carry on. This is from a Tory government also.

You'd wonder what kind of strategy they are at here but from a high level it looks like they are completely devoid of any strategy.

All to be revealed in the next few weeks apparently. Led by a lad with Ulster Unionist roots.
https://www.politico.eu/article/john-bew-global-britain-uk-eu/

Datacore · 19-01-2021 2:35am

This just strikes me as more of the same: trying to run the U.K. as if it’s an IT startup that needs to think outside the box and be a disruptor of the status quo like a new app.

The downside of it is that it’s a centuries old set of countries and has a population of 66+ million people who can’t be written off like some failed social media platform or expected to turn their lives upside down to suit radical top down policies.

They’re trying to use radical, blue sky thinking but it’s being coupled with removing the foundations of the economy and of society. It goes a lot deeper than Brexit and seems to include a lot of extreme liberal economic type approaches that will just see a lot of people and businesses being unable to adapt.

Already looking at Brexit, it’s all high level notions without any substance or reality to what they’re doing. They absolutely turned the supply chains upside down and inside out and plenty of businesses simply won’t survive that.

You see the same thread running through the pandemic. Experts giving sensible advice were disregarded in favour of some notion of outsmarting the world with herd immunity, which turned out to be a complete disaster.

Then you’ve had things like ignoring the usage instructions for the BioNTech/ Pfizer vaccine, with an assumption that they know better than the people who developed it when it comes to spacing doses.

The list goes on and on.

Countries typically move forward in an incremental way, adapting to things and developing.

What they’re proposing here is a bit like what the communists tried with the Cultural Revolution, only in a modern, ultra capitalist way. It’s top down, social engineering that simply doesn’t want listen to anyone or be diverted from its highbrow dogma. It doesn’t take feedback from the public, or from business and that’s why I think it’s doomed to fail.

The consequences of it are likely to be as disastrous as any other project that’s tried to impose a shape on an economy and a society. There are simply too many variables and too many unknown and unknowable consequence to all of this and it will be the most vulnerable aspects of society that will suffer.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 5:52am

marno21 wrote: »

Sunak clashing with business over proposed corporation tax rises in the Budget: https://www.ft.com/content/ef8d075a-17b4-45cd-bda3-aab5e59062dc (paywall)

Trying to make up for the Brexit and pandemic related budget deficit by reducing the attractiveness for business to invest in the UK is really bizarre carry on. This is from a Tory government also.

You'd wonder what kind of strategy they are at here but from a high level it looks like they are completely devoid of any strategy.

Those tax rises make sense to me, since they affect profits rather than costs. They shouldn't affect struggling businesses, inward investment or startups since none of those make profits in the short term. The UK isn't a tax haven like Ireland is (was?) so shouldn't lose that business.

dogbert27 · 19-01-2021 5:56am

Datacore wrote: »

This just strikes me as more of the same: trying to run the U.K. as if it’s an IT startup that needs to think outside the box and be a disruptor of the status quo like a new app.

The downside of it is that it’s a centuries old set of countries and has a population of 66+ million people who can’t be written off like some failed social media platform or expected to turn their lives upside down to suit radical top down policies.

They’re trying to use radical, blue sky thinking but it’s being coupled with removing the foundations of the economy and of society. It goes a lot deeper than Brexit and seems to include a lot of extreme liberal economic type approaches that will just see a lot of people and businesses being unable to adapt.

Already looking at Brexit, it’s all high level notions without any substance or reality to what they’re doing. They absolutely turned the supply chains upside down and inside out and plenty of businesses simply won’t survive that.

You see the same thread running through the pandemic. Experts giving sensible advice were disregarded in favour of some notion of outsmarting the world with herd immunity, which turned out to be a complete disaster.

Then you’ve had things like ignoring the usage instructions for the BioNTech/ Pfizer vaccine, with an assumption that they know better than the people who developed it when it comes to spacing doses.

The list goes on and on.

Countries typically move forward in an incremental way, adapting to things and developing.

What they’re proposing here is a bit like what the communists tried with the Cultural Revolution, only in a modern, ultra capitalist way. It’s top down, social engineering that simply doesn’t want listen to anyone or be diverted from its highbrow dogma. It doesn’t take feedback from the public, or from business and that’s why I think it’s doomed to fail.

The consequences of it are likely to be as disastrous as any other project that’s tried to impose a shape on an economy and a society. There are simply too many variables and too many unknown and unknowable consequence to all of this and it will be the most vulnerable aspects of society that will suffer.

But then you get pieces like this "Amazing but true..."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9158151/DOMINIC-LAWSON-Amazing-true-leading-world-fight-against-virus.html

Britain leading the world in the fight against the virus. It makes you sick to see such arrogance for a country who's government is still fumbling it's way through it's own mess it created from it's early responses

Datacore · 19-01-2021 6:06am

A constant need to engage in self-flattery tends to be a sign of insecurity and a fragile ego.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 6:11am

Some light entertainment courtesy of Tony Parson's take on border sandwich-gate.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13763001/after-britain-is-vaccinated-save-europe/

And no matter that in the winter of 1945, when the Dutch people were starving under Nazi occupation in what they call their Hongerwinter — hunger winter — RAF Lancasters bravely flew low to drop food parcels in broad, deadly, flak-filled daylight.
...
I can already imagine the scenes at Spanish holiday destinations as UK passport holders are ritually humiliated at immigration control, herded to one side as if they had just jumped off the back of a leaky dinghy for the crime of holding a non-EU passport.

dogbert27 · 19-01-2021 6:25am

Lumen wrote: »

Those tax rises make sense to me, since they affect profits rather than costs. They shouldn't affect struggling businesses, inward investment or startups since none of those make profits in the short term. The UK isn't a tax haven like Ireland is (was?) so shouldn't lose that business.

One of the strategies for Brexit though was that the UK can reduce it's corporation tax to attract more business.

The really big businesses already know how to play the systems (ala Trump), it's the medium and small businesses already in existence that will be affected and it could be a potential deterrent to new business.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 6:42am

dogbert27 wrote: »

One of the strategies for Brexit though was that the UK can reduce it's corporation tax to attract more business.

The really big businesses already know how to play the systems (ala Trump), it's the medium and small businesses already in existence that will be affected and it could be a potential deterrent to new business.

Small businesses care more about tax avoidance through entrepreneurs relief (cut from 10m to 1m in 2020) and pensions (limit mooted to be cut from 40k to 25k). It's mostly the IR35 dodgers who care about the old percentage point on corp tax.

Agree about not delivering on Brexit promises, but pro cyclical "book balancing" is part of their cult, a rather Germanic preoccupation ironically.

Still, I can't see the downside to taxing profits in a crisis, compared to the alternative means of controlling deficits like cuts to benefits for people made unemployed by government policy.

Peregrinus · 19-01-2021 6:44am

The problem with investing in a business enterprise is that there's a signficant downside risk - up to and including the entire loss of the whole of the capital invested, without ever seeing any return at all.

The investment nevertheless goes ahead if the downside risks are, in the judgment of the investor, more than offset by the upside possiblities, whether in the form of an income stream, or a valuable capital asset, or both.

But, the more you tax the income stream and/or the capital gains, the more you reduce the upside possiblities, which shifts the balance between upside (now smaller) and downside (as big as ever, or possibly bigger). So, the higher your taxes on business profits and/or capital gains, the less investment you should have.

Of course, that's just a very simplified model. In the real world business investment decisions are influenced by many more factors - the supply of capital seeking investment opportunities, the availability of alternative investment opportunties, etc, etc. Plus of course Brexit will distort investment decisions in other ways - raising barriers to international trade makes investment in businesses which engage in international trade less attractive, but it may become more attractive to investment in businesses serving the domestic market which now hope to be protected from international competition, in infrastructure business that hope to get work from "levelling-up" projects, etc.

But, in general, all other things being equal, raising business taxes will tend to reduce investment in business.

But I don't think Sunak's goal here is to stimulate investment. He may be more focussed on government finances than on the national economy. He wants to raise revenue to pay for some of the extraordinary pandemic-related expenditure, and so reduce the budget deficit.

And this makes a certain kind of sense. Increases in taxes on corporate profits only affects those corporations that are actually making profits. And any corporation that is making profits during the pandemic is, by definition, one of those that has suffered the least from the pandemic. And there's an argument from solidarity for the notion that those who have not suffered economically from the pandemic (or who may even have benefitt from it) have an obligation to pay more for the support of those who were less fortunate. Arguments froms solidarity are not very Thatcherite, but needs must.

Datacore · 19-01-2021 6:56am

It makes sense if you assume capital isn’t mobile and businesses aren’t just going to disappear.

Also if it’s applied to businesses that are already struggling with all sorts of new regulatory costs introduced by Brexit, it could end up driving many to the wall.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 7:02am

Ireland's low corp taxes haven't done much to boost entrepreneurship, which IMO is rather weak in Ireland despite pensions and entrepreneurs relief also being favourable.

You can accumulate at least 3.2m of wealth whilst paying only about 22% tax via these reliefs, and yet young, talented people too often just want to work for multinationals.

In any case, aside from one man band tax avoidance, people don't generally start businesses with an eye on corp tax. It's a compulsion.

Lumen · 19-01-2021 7:04am

Datacore wrote: »

It makes sense if you assume capital isn’t mobile and businesses aren’t just going to disappear.

Also if it’s applied to businesses that are already struggling with all sorts of new regulatory costs introduced by Brexit, it could end up driving many to the wall.

Struggling businesses don't make taxable profits.

Peregrinus · 19-01-2021 7:05am

Lumen wrote: »

. . . In any case, aside from one man band tax avoidance, people don't generally start businesses with an eye on corp tax. It's a compulsion.

Yeah, but most business investment is not into startups. The great bulk of it is expansion of existing businesses.

Datacore · 19-01-2021 7:16am

Lumen wrote: »

Struggling businesses don't make taxable profits.

Those may be the ones who don’t leave though...

Datacore · 19-01-2021 7:22am

Lumen wrote: »

Ireland's low corp taxes haven't done much to boost entrepreneurship, which IMO is rather weak in Ireland despite pensions and entrepreneurs relief also being favourable.

You can accumulate at least 3.2m of wealth whilst paying only about 22% tax via these reliefs, and yet young, talented people too often just want to work for multinationals.

In any case, aside from one man band tax avoidance, people don't generally start businesses with an eye on corp tax. It's a compulsion.

That’s more to do with culture though. I think part of it is when you’ve a country that spent a long time dealing with chronic levels of high unemployment that job stability tends to have taken priority over taking risks. We’ve also had a historical brain drain where entrepreneurs tended to emigrate. That’s changed somewhat but the issues remain around access fo capital in particular. There’s still a huge focus on bank finance, grants and investors who only want to put money into property.

Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

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