Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 2:52pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Actually, these two headlines are from The Telegraph just two days ago:

From the Business section: Money has started to flow back into Britain - the Brexit deal is unequivocally positive.
From the Opinion section: Britain's nimble taskforce puts EU bureaucracy to shame - and shows how Brexit can succeed.

Wrt who voted for Brexit, just a quarter of Labour voters voted Leave. But today's Labour party is very different to Corbyn's Labour party so comparison is meaningless.

My belief is that there is a cohort of conditioned voters, many of whom have been conditioned by the Tory press over decades, that constitute about 40% of the electorate. They voted for Brexit. They voted in a populist , nationalist Tory government. They now believe in Brexit as an article of faith. Reality doesn't really matter, they just want a narrative that suits their belief and the Tory press and the Tory populists will happily feed that narrative. In my opinion, as things deteriorate in Britain, this nationalism will be stoked further by the Tories to ensure another hefty majority in four years. If only there were a proper democratic electoral process and a cohesive and able opposition. But there isn't.

When I said "headlines", I was referring to the front page. I'm never going to subscribe to the red tops (I include the Telegraph in that category) so their interiors aren't of interest to me. My experience with family members is that they want the Sun for its soccer coverage as opposed to its Brexiter opinion pieces.

I think your 40% figure is wildly exaggerated. I'd say that it's a heady mixture of people who wanted Brexit resolved, standard blue voters and Brexit diehards. Core voters don't often waver unless their party is seen as being toxic as Labour were in 2019. I don't see there being a repeat of 2019 in 2024.

Strazdas · 18-01-2021 2:59pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Actually, these two headlines are from The Telegraph just two days ago:

From the Business section: Money has started to flow back into Britain - the Brexit deal is unequivocally positive.
From the Opinion section: Britain's nimble taskforce puts EU bureaucracy to shame - and shows how Brexit can succeed.

Wrt who voted for Brexit, just a quarter of Labour voters voted Leave. But today's Labour party is very different to Corbyn's Labour party so comparison is meaningless.

My belief is that there is a cohort of conditioned voters, many of whom have been conditioned by the Tory press over decades, that constitute about 40% of the electorate. They voted for Brexit. They voted in a populist , nationalist Tory government. They now believe in Brexit as an article of faith. Reality doesn't really matter, they just want a narrative that suits their belief and the Tory press and the Tory populists will happily feed that narrative. In my opinion, as things deteriorate in Britain, this nationalism will be stoked further by the Tories to ensure another hefty majority in four years. If only there were a proper democratic electoral process and a cohesive and able opposition. But there isn't.

100%. There is a hardcore section of the English public who believe the EU is essentially corrupt, a bureaucratic shambles, the creator of ridiculous and unnecessary laws, a dictatorship etc. They have been brainwashed into believing this over 40 years by their toxic press. Following on from this, any sort of a reality that means being free of the "shackles" of such a terrible organisation will be worth it, no matter how bad things get.

I think it was Fintan O'Toole who said they have created an imaginary EU to hate on, one which bears no resemblance to the real thing.

Strazdas · 18-01-2021 3:07pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

When I said "headlines", I was referring to the front page. I'm never going to subscribe to the red tops (I include the Telegraph in that category) so their interiors aren't of interest to me. My experience with family members is that they want the Sun for its soccer coverage as opposed to its Brexiter opinion pieces.

I think your 40% figure is wildly exaggerated. I'd say that it's a heady mixture of people who wanted Brexit resolved, standard blue voters and Brexit diehards. Core voters don't often waver unless their party is seen as being toxic as Labour were in 2019. I don't see there being a repeat of 2019 in 2024.

How do you explain Leave voters being unable to "let go" of Brexit? It is obvious to everyone with no skin in the game it is a failure, an utter disaster and yet none of them can admit it publicly.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 3:13pm

Strazdas wrote: »

How do you explain Leave voters being unable to "let go" of Brexit? It is obvious to everyone with no skin in the game it is a failure, an utter disaster and yet none of them can admit it publicly.

Are they? We've less than a month into the new status quo. I think it's too early to tell.

Sam Russell · 18-01-2021 3:14pm

I've been wondering what the future EU/UK relationship will morph into. I think one of a few changes occur, but am uncertain which will occur first.

1. UK rejoins the single market to get free movement of goods (and accepts FOM for people). The fact that Norway and Switzerland see this as good for them could persuade them that this would be OK, but then again, the ECJ - could they accept the oversight?

2. UK joins the customs union to ease the C&E problems at the border. Not sure on this one - the VAT problems and rules of origin might be easier.

3. UK and EU agree a services deal - or the EU turns the screw on the City of London. I think the latter is more likely.

4. The EU agrees a load of mini deals that favour the EU. Yes, I can see this, but then again, the EU have set their face against this. However , the EU are pragmatic.

I could see them rejoining the SM if they get a deal on the CoL Financial services, but not for while. A few years of rotting fish on the quayside and living on a diet of mackerel and chips, followed by Welsh lamb every Wednesday and Sunday.

Oh, how they will long for a decent claret or champagne, and just wish this would just go away.

Strazdas · 18-01-2021 3:20pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Are they? We've less than a month into the new status quo. I think it's too early to tell.

I would say so. Comments from people on social media saying "I admit Brexit has already failed" or "I was taken in by the Vote Leave campaign" seem extremely rare. One wonders if the vast majority of Leave voters will ever be able to disassociate themselves from Brexit or their 2016 vote.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 3:21pm

Strazdas wrote: »

I would say so. Comments from people on social media saying "I admit Brexit has already failed" or "I was taken in by the Vote Leave campaign" seem extremely rare. One wonders if the vast majority of Leave voters will ever be able to disassociate themselves from Brexit or their 2016 vote.

Comments from social media are an abysmal metric. Give it a few months and see what the polling says.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 3:23pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

When I said "headlines", I was referring to the front page. I'm never going to subscribe to the red tops (I include the Telegraph in that category) so their interiors aren't of interest to me. My experience with family members is that they want the Sun for its soccer coverage as opposed to its Brexiter opinion pieces.

I think your 40% figure is wildly exaggerated. I'd say that it's a heady mixture of people who wanted Brexit resolved, standard blue voters and Brexit diehards. Core voters don't often waver unless their party is seen as being toxic as Labour were in 2019. I don't see there being a repeat of 2019 in 2024.

It's not a wild exaggeration. A majority of voters voted Leave. In answer to the polling question 'How would you vote in a second referendum?', there has been a steady 42% Leave vote from June 2016 to December 2020. The party that espoused a hard Brexit in a Brexit dominated election got 44% and a majority of 80 seats.

How do you think a fragmented, milk and water Labour party are going to unseat a populist and cohesively Brexiteer Tory party with a solid cohort of Brexiteer minded voters?

Datacore · 18-01-2021 3:28pm

Biden may actually end up playing a role in setting a more pragmatic and sane tone in terms of trade and diplomacy generally. I think the Tories have been getting away with a lot both by riding on Trump’s coat tails (even if he was barely aware of them) but also because the focus was on the utter circus of lunacy coming out of the USA.

I think over the coming weeks and months as the US (hopefully) calms down and also as the COVID situation might begin to resolve, the Tories may be found to be swimming with no shorts as the tide goes out.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 3:30pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's not a wild exaggeration. A majority of voters voted Leave. In answer to the polling question 'How would you vote in a second referendum?', there has been a steady 42% Leave vote from June 2016 to December 2020. The party that espoused a hard Brexit in a Brexit dominated election got 44% and a majority of 80 seats.

How do you think a fragmented, milk and water Labour party are going to unseat a populist and cohesively Brexiteer Tory party with a solid cohort of Brexiteer minded voters?

I don't think this is particularly insightful though. Brexit has just happened. We're going to have to wait and see how people here react to the new normal before knowing how many are going to regret 2016 enough to consider voting Labour.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 3:32pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think this is particularly insightful though. Brexit has just happened. We're going to have to wait and see how people here react to the new normal before knowing how many are going to regret 2016 enough to consider voting Labour.

Maybe you're right. In fact, I hope you're right. But all the indications are that there are sufficient blind faith voters to ensure that the delusion continues.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 3:35pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Maybe you're right. In fact, I hope you're right. But all the indications are that there are sufficient blind faith voters to ensure that the delusion continues.

The indicatons are, at the time of writing, of very limited use.

A better one might be the fishing industry which was pro-Leave now seeing what that actually entails. Far too late of course but they're surely not parroting the Express talking points about global Britain any more.

yagan · 18-01-2021 3:36pm

Datacore wrote: »

Biden may actually end up playing a role in setting a more pragmatic and sane tone in terms of trade and diplomacy generally. I think the Tories have been getting away with a lot both by riding on Trump’s coat tails (even if he was barely aware of them) but also because the focus was on the utter circus of lunacy coming out of the USA.

I think over the coming weeks and months as the US (hopefully) calms down and also as the COVID situation might begin to resolve, the Tories may be found to be swimming with no shorts as the tide goes out.

It will be very interesting to see how No10 greets Biden's term, Britain isn't really of much use to the USA outside of the EU so initially there'll be an affirmation of previous alliance.

If Biden makes an address to the EU parliament the centre piece of his first trip to Europe it would certainly put Brexiters in their box.

Strazdas · 18-01-2021 3:38pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's not a wild exaggeration. A majority of voters voted Leave. In answer to the polling question 'How would you vote in a second referendum?', there has been a steady 42% Leave vote from June 2016 to December 2020. The party that espoused a hard Brexit in a Brexit dominated election got 44% and a majority of 80 seats.

How do you think a fragmented, milk and water Labour party are going to unseat a populist and cohesively Brexiteer Tory party with a solid cohort of Brexiteer minded voters?

One thing getting overlooked is that the Brexit Tories are a firmly right wing / hard right / far right English nationalist party - they've hoovered up all the BNP and UKIP support. It's hard to see how anyone of that general right wing persuasion will vote for anyone but them in the next election. Witness how strongly Trump's support held up.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 3:39pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The indicatons are, at the time of writing, of very limited use.

A better one might be the fishing industry which was pro-Leave now seeing what that actually entails. Far too late of course but they're surely not parroting the Express talking points about global Britain any more.

They're not but fishing was totemic and, as such, garners a lot of media attention. It essentially comes down to this. Assuming Brexit hits hard economically, does the average Joe blame the Tories and Brexit or does he buy into nationalism and the anti EU spin.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 3:39pm

Strazdas wrote: »

One thing getting overlooked is that the Brexit Tories are a firmly right wing / hard right / far right English nationalist party - they've hoovered up all the BNP and UKIP support. It's hard to see how anyone of that general right wing persuasion will vote for anyone but them in the next election. Witness how strongly Trump's support held up.

Exactly. What we are witnessing is populism hiding in plain sight.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 3:44pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They're not but fishing was totemic and, as such, garners a lot of media attention. It essentially comes down to this. Assuming Brexit hits hard economically, does the average Joe blame the Tories and Brexit or does he buy into nationalism and the anti EU spin.

Anti-EU spin is now pointless though. The problem with the Brexiters going on and on about taking back control is that now they're in control. The whole point of blaming the EU was so that the Conservative party could do what it wanted and avoid responsibility. That is no longer the case.

20silkcut · 18-01-2021 3:49pm

Yes farage said Britain wanted to leave the EU and trade with the world.
So there they go trade with the world let them send their shell fish to the four corners of the world.
The EU aren’t stopping them doing that. They can go ahead and do it right now.
How on earth can they blame the EU for any of their current difficulties?
They should be challenged on this blame game at every turn.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 3:54pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Anti-EU spin is now pointless though. The problem with the Brexiters going on and on about taking back control is that now they're in control. The whole point of blaming the EU was so that the Conservative party could do what it wanted and avoid responsibility. That is no longer the case.

Hopefully. We'll see.

Lumen · 18-01-2021 3:55pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

IA lot of people who voted for Brexit aren't even Tories. They're conservatives who detest the Conservative party so they vote Labour

Correct, Brexit is not a traditional left/right issue, despite being a Tory project.

From Dec 2017, although there are loads of such analyses.

After Brexit, it’s no longer about “left” and “right”—it’s now social liberals vs social conservatives
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/after-brexit-its-no-longer-about-left-and-right-its-now-social-liberals-vs-social-conservatives

That piece was written by John Curtice, who was on the Bunker podcast yesterday.

https://play.acast.com/s/the-bunker/bonus-johncurticeonpoliticsafterthepandemic

ambro25 · 18-01-2021 3:55pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Are they? We've less than a month into the new status quo. I think it's too early to tell.

I agree with your take on this, but I think also, that people are underestimating the danger for heightened populism/nationalism in the UK, arising from what could all too soon turn into a critical mass of cascading business failures.

Scottish shellfish is a tiny top aspect of a massive iceberg of manufacturing and service UK SMEs with a cashflow on its ar5e after 12-ish months of badly-mismanaged Covid mitigation, now faced with a barrage of ever-increasing, stepped-like NTBs that are getting gradually ramped up *very* fast (as timescales go). We're starting to hear about pork farmers now, and my guess is that we're going to get ever more of these, ever faster, as the inter-connectedness of a first world economy plays out.

Remember it's still light touch customs until 1st April, and nobody over there has even mentioned ISPM15, which will likely be a massive issue, because independent from and cumulative to whatever customs and tariff issue(s) befall what goods are on the pallet). Now Johnson is already promising compo to the Scottish fishermen for pacification, at that rate what kind of bill is HMG likely to end up with by mid-April..land what if it doesn't pay in the meantime?

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 4:10pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hopefully. We'll see.

2019 taught me not to put too much faith in predictions. That said, soon as I can trick someone in Ireland or the continent into offering me a decent job and covid dies down (so flights operate again) I'm out.

Lumen wrote: »

Correct, Brexit is not a traditional left/right issue, despite being a Tory project.

From Dec 2017, although there are loads of such analyses.

After Brexit, it’s no longer about “left” and “right”—it’s now social liberals vs social conservatives
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/after-brexit-its-no-longer-about-left-and-right-its-now-social-liberals-vs-social-conservatives

That piece was written by John Curtice, who was on the Bunker podcast yesterday.

https://play.acast.com/s/the-bunker/bonus-johncurticeonpoliticsafterthepandemic

It seems very much to me that Brexit is the UK's primary and all-consuming culture war issue. As with such things, it's why either side refuses to back down and why Leave voters who may regret the decision still stand by it.

What I'm wondering is how much of the Leave & Tory voting bloc (if any) softens come 2024 and if it does, can Starmer or the then Labour leader capitalise? It's no longer academic or abstract. This is reality now. It's one thing to slag the EU off while benefitting from it, quite another when you're out and your recovery from covid is slower than the rest of the continent's.

ambro25 wrote: »

I agree with your take on this, but I think also, that people are underestimating the danger for heightened populism/nationalism in the UK, arising from what could all too soon turn into a critical mass of cascading business failures.

Scottish shellfish is a tiny top aspect of a massive iceberg of manufacturing and service UK SMEs with a cashflow on its ar5e after 12-ish months of badly-mismanaged Covid mitigation, now faced with a barrage of ever-increasing, stepped-like NTBs that are getting gradually ramped up *very* fast (as timescales go). We're starting to hear about pork farmers now, and my guess is that we're going to get ever more of these, ever faster, as the inter-connectedness of a first world economy plays out.

Remember it's still light touch customs until 1st April, and nobody over there has even mentioned ISPM15, which will likely be a massive issue, because independent from and cumulative to whatever customs and tariff issue(s) befall what goods are on the pallet). Now Johnson is already promising compo to the Scottish fishermen for pacification, at that rate what kind of bill is HMG likely to end up with by mid-April..land what if it doesn't pay in the meantime?

I think that covid has dampened any sort of lurch towards populism for the government. Not prevented by any stretch but Johnson can't bluster and bluff his way around a problem that requires a solution devised by experts. Hopefully, it's also reminded the great British public that experts have some value.

This could all change of course but at the present moment I think that there are too many variables and too many unsettled questions to know how the public are going to feel about Brexit. It's literally been years since anyone aside from a miniscule coterie of Tory diehard has pretended that there's any benefit. Instead, it's just a way to shut down Labour and any other opposition.

Were it not for covid, I think there would be a much greater danger of a lurch to the populist right. I'd a friend here ready to jack in a good job in Whitehall to go answer phones in Kilkenny he was that worried about such a lurch. It could still happen but I'm hoping that the pandemic if nothing else prompts a bit of serious introspection among people in the UK. It's long overdue.

peter kern · 18-01-2021 4:51pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Anti-EU spin is now pointless though. The problem with the Brexiters going on and on about taking back control is that now they're in control. The whole point of blaming the EU was so that the Conservative party could do what it wanted and avoid responsibility. That is no longer the case.

they will call it a witch hunt by the eu, populists never blame themselves.

prawnsambo · 18-01-2021 4:54pm

peter kern wrote: »

they will call it a witch hunt by the eu, populists never blame themselves.

Well Johnson is blaming the fishermen not filling out the forms correctly for their problems: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-seafood-sales-boris-johnson-b1788936.html

Circular firing squad deployed

ambro25 · 18-01-2021 4:57pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

(...)

Were it not for covid, I think there would be a much greater danger of a lurch to the populist right. I'd a friend here ready to jack in a good job in Whitehall to go answer phones in Kilkenny he was that worried about such a lurch. It could still happen but I'm hoping that the pandemic if nothing else prompts a bit of serious introspection among people in the UK. It's long overdue.

I wish I had your optimism.

Those truckers demonstrating today were fined £200 under the Covid travel restrictions: we know well how the populist right handled Dom's travelling indiscretions (nowt to see here) and that SNP Minister's (hang her), so it'll be interesting to see what follow-up those fines get.

EDIT: doubly so, in light of prawnsambo's post above.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2021 5:14pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well Johnson is blaming the fishermen not filling out the forms correctly for their problems: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-seafood-sales-boris-johnson-b1788936.html

Circular firing squad deployed

So they are just "teething problems", it's the fishermen's fault for "misunderstanding" and the EU's fault because their restaurants aren't open. And Brexit has given fishermen huge "opportunities". Could have written the script myself.

looksee · 18-01-2021 5:18pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well Johnson is blaming the fishermen not filling out the forms correctly for their problems: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-seafood-sales-boris-johnson-b1788936.html

Circular firing squad deployed

Forms? What forms?

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2021 5:31pm

ambro25 wrote: »

I wish I had your optimism.

Those truckers demonstrating today were fined £200 under the Covid travel restrictions: we know well how the populist right handled Dom's travelling indiscretions (nowt to see here) and that SNP Minister's (hang her), so it'll be interesting to see what follow-up those fines get.

EDIT: doubly so, in light of prawnsambo's post above.

It's not optimism so much as an appreciation that the Brexit vote and Johnson's win in 2019 were both coalitions. Now that Brexit has happened, nothing is holding them together and you can see the divisions appearing such as in prawnsambo's post. Johnson knows that fishermen have no further political value so he's turned on them.

I expect to see more of this.

Lumen · 18-01-2021 5:34pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It seems very much to me that Brexit is the UK's primary and all-consuming culture war issue.

It was. It just isn't any more, in England at least. The headlines are still rolling but the rage has gone, because the Brexiters got what they wanted (end to FOM) and the Remainers don't see any way back for several elections.

For Labour and their supporters Brexit is just one more thing that Tories have screwed up. It's become an implementation problem that can be used to diminish Tory approval ratings and get Labour back in power, but not with a mandate to re-join the EU. That is toxic.

For the Tories...well. My concern is that they're not really in control of the direction of travel. Right now there are zero practical upsides to Brexit and loads of downsides. A way out is to implement some significant policy changes on the back of this new order, cite those as benefits and play down the trade barriers.

And the obvious one is immigration controls, e.g. the points-based system. Unfortunately that is a stupid policy (because immigrants create economic growth) and runs counter to normal right-wing laissez faire economic doctrine, because it requires the State to direct the economy. But maybe they are dumb enough to think they can pull it off.

So either the Tories double-down on immigration some how, or....get rid of Boris and try and move the country on. I think this second option is more likely. They'll wear him like a flak jacket for a few more months and then cast him off when the Covid crisis is over.

The country will then attempt a kind of mass self-hypnosis to forget the whole thing. Wonks will continue to point out divergent growth trajectories between the EU and UK, but the British electorate haven't really cared for those comparison before, and lacking an English political party to carry the issue into mainstream politics (because making people feel bad about their country is not a winning policy) it will just be ignored.

But whilst the fingers-in-the-ears approach might play out in England...will NI and Scotland let them off the hook? Could the SNP keep picking at the sore? At what point does letting Scotland rejoin the EU seem like a convenient way to shut them up?

Ramble ends.

Dymo · 18-01-2021 5:58pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-shellfish-lorries-park-near-downing-street-as-new-rules-cause-severe-delays-at-eu-border-12191385

Lorries jamming up traffic near parliament, can’t wait till a load of rotten shellfish is dumped on street. Reply from Boris is typical wiffle waffle.

In all reality what is the percentage of people in the UK worried about shell fish production, I'd say less that 1 percent and Boris knows that, it will blow over in a day or 2.