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Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

12467…60

Comments

  • #152
    Stephen Hawkins football boots
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭Stephen Hawkins football boots


    Don't mean to be Dublin centric,But how deep will this snow be in Dublin and how long will it last


  • #153
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    On this run still snowing heavy in Cork city on wenesday of next week having started on Monday ,piling up


  • #154
    Rougies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Pentecost wrote: »
    An idiot writes.....we’re not actually looking at the potential for -15/-16 type temperatures are we?! The country will go mental next weekend if this keeps up.



    The charts shown with -15 are for the temperature at 850hpa (about 1.5 km above ground), daytime temperatures would hover around freezing and nighttime temperatures would generally be about -2 to -8 (highest in the east). But it's quite possible to get down as low as -15/16 at night in places with laying snow away from the east coast as happened in Dec 2010.


  • #155
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,234 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    Don't mean to be Dublin centric,But how deep will this snow be in Dublin and how long will it last

    Not a iota, and we won't until the hours before. We want the cold in before we look at precip!


  • #156
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    km79 wrote: »
    And at night ?

    You’d be better off not knowing :D
    But in east Galway below -10 assuming most of Leinster and Munster is under a deep blanket of snow


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  • #157
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    On this run still snowing heavy in Cork city on wenesday of next week having started on Monday ,piling up

    I hope those showers are spreading to inland Cork!


  • #158
    Stephen Hawkins football boots
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭Stephen Hawkins football boots


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Its not an exaggeration to say next week we could see conditions similar to late February 1947 if some of these charts come off, truly exceptional.

    What happened in Feb 1947?


  • #159
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    I've never seen anything like this in 7 years of model watching, even during failed, falling-at-the-last-hurdle easterlies which looked hugely promising. Most of the country looks likely to see significant snow and more importantly extreme cold. I have a good feeling the east but especially southern coast (which I vaguely remember missing out a bit in 2010) could see major falls of snow during next week. :) Absolutely spectacular.

    I still have a mild sinking feeling that something will have to give over the next few days (although even a major downgrade at this stage would still mean a decent cold spell), but the cross-model agreement over the past few days is very robust.

    I would still urge you all not to get carried away with yourselves just yet. If all this is still there by Friday (give or take a few tweaks) we will definitely be all set. This is going to be a tortuous week, and hopefully it will be worth the wait, but we should really be prepared for every eventuality.


  • #160
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    Rough idea on how long the beast will stay in Ireland? A week? 2 weeks?


  • #161
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    km79 wrote: »
    And at night ?

    God knows, Villain who is a member on here recorded -17 I think in Carlow in 2010. He is in a frost hollow but still it shows what is possible.


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  • #162
    Pentecost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,867 ✭✭✭Pentecost


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    No they are 850hpa temperatures, Translate to about 0c daytime surface temps
    Rougies wrote: »
    The charts shown with -15 are for the temperature at 850hpa (about 1.5 km above ground), daytime temperatures would hover around freezing and nighttime temperatures would generally be about -2 to -8 (highest in the east). But it's quite possible to get down as low as -15/16 at night in places with laying snow away from the east coast as happened in Dec 2010.

    Thank you folks. I told you I was an idiot.


  • #163
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,468 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    I won't let hopes get up until the weekend


  • #164
    Timistry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 755 ✭✭✭Timistry


    If the models even 80% verify, surely it will be a red warning with a frostbite warning in place too?!


  • #165
    Bicycle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Bicycle


    What are the criteria for a Red "Cold Weather - Snow" Alert?


  • #166
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,937 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    If anything remotely like the latest model run by the GFS occurred large parts of this country's infrastructure would be paralysed.

    Fun to look at but remember to keep a level head.

    On track for the severe end of the spectrum. Will update tomorrow.


  • #167
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    I hope those showers are spreading to inland Cork!

    Oh they will on this run,no doubt about it in my opinion
    It’s impossible to be exact
    But you look at the sea surface temps and the 850 temps and that long fetch,it’s textbook Lake Ontario stuff
    Those could blast in 30 miles handy


  • #168
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,081 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/965720389551906821

    https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/965719600443817987


  • #169
    gally74
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    Bicycle wrote: »
    What are the criteria for a Red "Cold Weather - Snow" Alert?

    2 inches in south Dublin I’d say.


  • #170
    Timistry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 755 ✭✭✭Timistry


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Oh they will on this run,no doubt about it in my opinion
    It’s impossible to be exact
    But you look at the sea surface temps and the 850 temps and that long fetch,it’s textbook Lake Ontario stuff
    Those could blast in 30 miles handy

    Lake effect snow :eek:


  • #171
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,754 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    I have a Finnish friend and he says next week it is forecast to be -30C in southern Finland.


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  • #172
    Bicycle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Bicycle


    gally74 wrote: »
    2 inches in south Dublin I’d say.

    And in the rest of the country? :D


  • #173
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    George, thank you with those charts I'm positively giddy!


  • #174
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    gally74 wrote: »
    2 inches in south Dublin I’d say.

    A flake being spotted falling outside a window at Montrose. :eek:


  • #175
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,996 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    18_180_ukthickness850.png?cb=30

    -16c 850 temps over wales... Look where the 510 dam line is :eek:

    Good grief. My jaw has just hit the floor. it's as if the globe has flipped to spinning east to west


  • #176
    Colser
    Registered Users Posts: 5,572 ✭✭✭Colser


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    What happened in Feb 1947?

    My dad often speaks about it and says the snow was up to the windows..he was only 6 at the time so that may be slightly exaggerated..ðŸ˜


  • #177
    Stephen Hawkins football boots
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭Stephen Hawkins football boots


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Good grief. My jaw has just hit the floor. it's as if the globe has flipped to spinning east to west

    No idea what I'm,looking at in these charts is that -14 degrees in daytime in Ireland?


  • #178
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    What happened in Feb 1947?

    Well it was the snowiest winter of the century and was severely cold, It would be astonishing to see that level of cold and snow for even a few days but today's charts would cause similar conditions next week and beyond...

    As Kermit says our infrastructure would be paralysed - This level of severity has only really shown up with consistency today though and so is far from certain.


  • #179
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,996 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    km79 wrote: »
    And at night ?

    i'd say -8, or possibly even lower, over snowfields is possible


  • #180
    Timistry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 755 ✭✭✭Timistry


    Colser wrote: »
    My dad often speaks about it and says the snow was up to the windows..he was only 6 at the time so that may be slightly exaggerated..ðŸ˜


    No exaggeration, drifts covered the top of ESB poles


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  • #181
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,234 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    And a beautiful end of the chart, with a low pressure system moving down from the north dumping inches of snow countrywide.

    prectypeuktopo.png


  • #182
    Rougies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,683 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Bicycle wrote: »
    What are the criteria for a Red "Cold Weather - Snow" Alert?



    https://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/warnings-explained.asp
    Criteria for Red - Severe Weather Warnings

    3. Snow/Ice Significant falls of snow likely to cause accumulations of 8 cm or greater below 250 m AMSL. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces; situation likely to worsen.


    4. Low Temperatures Minima of minus 10C or lower expected. Maxima of minus 2C or lower expected.

    I think Met Eireann would have to make a new "Luminous Pink" warning if these charts came off pacman.gif


  • #183
    kod87
    Closed Accounts Posts: 248 ✭✭kod87


    while I'm excited about the potential cold, I can see myself in the south midlands being very frustrated again (just like in 2010), cold with no precipitation. But we shall see


  • #184
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    No idea what I'm,looking at in these charts is that -14 degrees in daytime in Ireland?

    No it’s -14c at about 5000 feet above sea level
    So about -4 to -5c at sea level max
    Quite deserving of a few :eek: :eek:


  • #185
    Minister
    Closed Accounts Posts: 444 ✭✭Minister


    Heres a bit of info re 1947 et al......

    http://www.turtlebunbury.com/history/history_irish/history_irish_big_snow.htm


  • #186
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Temperatures probably wouldn't actually be all that low on this GFS run, winds would be gale force and above a lot of the time which would keep the cold air from pooling. Wind chill on the other hand would be absolutely brutal, as low as -11C in the middle of the day next week and lower again overnight. To be taken with a pinch of salt for now obviously but doubt we'll be seeing charts like this again any time soon

    210-290UK_jvx4.GIF


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  • #187
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,668 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Well it was the snowiest winter of the century and was severely cold, It would be astonishing to see that level of cold and snow for even a few days but today's charts would cause similar conditions next week and beyond...

    As Kermit says our infrastructure would be paralysed - This level of severity has only really shown up with consistency today though and so is far from certain.

    It would be "interesting" to say the least seeing a 1947 type event in modern times, especially with so-called global warming, climate change and advanced technology since then.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #188
    Stephen Hawkins football boots
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭Stephen Hawkins football boots


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Well it was the snowiest winter of the century and was severely cold, It would be astonishing to see that level of cold and snow for even a few days but today's charts would cause similar conditions next week and beyond...

    As Kermit says our infrastructure would be paralysed - This level of severity has only really shown up with consistency today though and so is far from certain.

    Thank you for explanation so 1947 was worse than 2010 ?Next week sounds exciting or worrying depending on how you see it . When will we start to see weather warnings


  • #189
    2013Lara
    Closed Accounts Posts: 456 ✭✭2013Lara


    Tell me that schools will shut so I don't have to think about leaving the house if this happens!


  • #190
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,668 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    Thank you for explanation so 1947 was worse than 2010 ?Next week sounds exciting or worrying depending on how you see it . When will we start to see weather warnings

    1947 was far far worse dude.

    I posted my February 1947 analysis here in this thread, if you'd like to know about it: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057714322&page=15

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #191
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭typhoony


    surely it can't go wrong, or can it. the only fly in the ointment is the severity of cold that is predicted to build over NE Europe and move it's way westward, not that it makes a huge difference as the worst case scenario is temperatures hovering just above freezing by day. I would prefer to see double digit negative day time temps to our east, none of the online 5 day to 10 day City weather pages are showing anything like that right now. not that they are very reliable in any case.


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  • #192
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,996 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    No idea what I'm,looking at in these charts is that -14 degrees in daytime in Ireland?

    no those are temperatures at 1.5 km in the air. At near ground level the temperature would be 0 or below. Abosultely incredible for the time of the year!!!


  • #193
    Stephen Hawkins football boots
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭Stephen Hawkins football boots


    Thanks for all the explanations and patience with my newbie weather questions


  • #194
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    Thank you for explanation so 1947 was worse than 2010 ?Next week sounds exciting or worrying depending on how you see it . When will we start to see weather warnings

    It lasted a lot longer and the snow was much deeper, December 2010 was as cold though.
    You won't see weather warnings until 24-36 hours before, Watch the tone of met eireanns forecasts change rapidly over the next few days if this keeps up though.


  • #195
    kingshankly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,593 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    Jesus lads go easy yous will break the thank you button😂


  • #196
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Irish Steve wrote: »
    The difference I recall from those years was that when it fell it was wetter snow, so it packed into a sheet of ice on the roads, rather than staying as powder, which made driving on it very different.

    Nó wet snow here. Pure dry powder bliss, those were the days Quite incredible really.


  • #197
    Minister
    Closed Accounts Posts: 444 ✭✭Minister


    2013Lara wrote: »
    Tell me that schools will shut so I don't have to think about leaving the house if this happens!

    Don't worry....teachers only need a rumour of anything to have a day off - on health and safety grounds of course!!

    Real issue could be pipes freezing so a lot of business may be in difficulty.


  • #198
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Temperatures probably wouldn't actually be all that low on this GFS run, winds would be gale force and above a lot of the time which would keep the cold air from pooling. Wind chill on the other hand would be absolutely brutal, as low as -11C in the middle of the day next week and lower again overnight. To be taken with a pinch of salt for now obviously but doubt we'll be seeing charts like this again any time soon

    210-290UK_jvx4.GIF

    Against that though,this air mass will be subject to very little modification en route
    The vast majority of its journey will be over land (even counting its angle of attack on the poor corkonians and waterfordites) so it won’t need to pool or stay still it will arrive almost as is on this model :eek:


  • #199
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,668 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    It lasted a lot longer and the snow was much deeper, December 2010 was as cold though.
    You won't see weather warnings until 24-36 hours before, Watch the tone of met eireanns forecasts change rapidly over the next few days if this keeps up though.

    IMTs to compare

    February 1947; -1.1c
    January 1963; -1.6c
    December 2010; -0.7c

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #200
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Oh I hope this turns out to be a damp squib. Any bit of snow or ice and commuting becomes a complete nightmare.


  • #201
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,996 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well i've always wanted to see conditions similar to 1947. So i welcome it. I thought i would never experience anything like 2010 again in my life time. I just hope it doesn't downgrade, but i fear some sort of downgrade is inevitable-but it would still be snowy, mind.


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