FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Rebelbrowser · 10-01-2019 12:29am

Struggling to post charts but above front arrives at the same time as -8 / -10 uppers descend over the country. Fun times if it came to pass!

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2019 12:45am

From what I can see ECM, GFS and GEM showing close similarities for a gradual change in the weather from around +120 hrs . The stubborn HP is shown to eventually get overtaken by colder Atlantic type weather with air sourced from Canada , Greenland and Polar Northerlies at times showing up mixed with warmer frontal activity which would be interesting seeing how they interact as they move into the cold air mass . ECM showing some strong jet also and at times from a NW /N direction so potentially living things up and helping to steer in some cold weather towards us.

This is just what I am seeing in the charts this evening , some good cross model agreement of a change to colder more typical Irish weather for the time of year with some wintry spells , possible snow with that amount of cold uppers and moisture available .

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2019 12:52am

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2019 12:59am

UKMO showing it getting colder from Monday also .

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2019 1:06am

ECM 850hPa Temp anomalies from +120 hrs and for comparison todays chart.

All in FI no doubt but will be watching over the next few runs to see if it holds.

Rebelbrowser · 10-01-2019 5:28pm

Just realised I've been posting in the wrong thread.

12z UKMO looking interesting for just 6 day's time...

1951704610_UN144-21(1).gif.89e72aabb5f55fa965d5094a3006aa9c.gif

1951704610_UN144-21(1).gif.89e72aabb5f55fa965d5094a3006aa9c.gif

gabeeg · 10-01-2019 9:21pm

gabeeg · 10-01-2019 9:28pm

Getting there. Uppers aren't quite what I'd hope for though.

Meteorite58 · 11-01-2019 1:05am

So the charts fairly consistent now that a frontal rainband and accompanying winds set to herald the change to a more active colder Atlantic from around Tues into Weds next. LP near Iceland by next Tues set to pull down colder NW'lys and LPs (not too deep at this stage ) are showing close to Ireland on the models around next weekend. The end of the ECM run out at +240hrs looking quite cold across Europe . Just looking at the total precipitation charts from the ECM and amounts not particularly high up to next weekend ( Atlantic coastal counties getting the most ). Both the GFS and ECM showing HP build off to the SW Ireland out at +240 , GFS goes on to show this take up position more or less off the Iberian peninsula well out into FI .

Meteorite58 · 11-01-2019 1:25am

Cold from the E and from the W out at +240 hrs from the ECM and GFS.

icesnowfrost · 11-01-2019 6:24am

Just putting this up for fun. GFS PARA for the 16th snowfall. Although I do think any snow we might get next week will be in the north and west.

highdef · 11-01-2019 12:04pm

FINALLY, the latest GFS operational is becoming to show signs of significant colder weather with a fairly high risk of low to moderate accumulations in the north and west, beginning in about 9 days with wintry showers becoming more widespread the following day, Monday and then a chance of heavy snow showers in the east on a strong north easterly wind on the Tuesday. Temperatures well below freezing at night and hovering either side of 0c during the daytime hours.

Pressure then builds slightly on Wed - Fri, leading to some extremely cold nights, especially with any snow cover with days perhaps remaining subzero, with some freezing fog about the place.

As we move into the weekend of the 26th/27th, heights are rising in Greenland and also in Scandinavia (briefly) and also just off the north east coast of the USA. A weather front crossing the country on the Saturday could bring widespread snow to many places.

All in all, this mornings run is looking like quite a significant upgrade and is the best that has been offered so far, IMO. We need more upgrades like this though as it's still nothing particularly dramatic looking but at least it's looking more like the ECMWF.

gabeeg · 11-01-2019 12:36pm

Can someone please help me interpret this chart from the GLOSEA?

F1410BFF-3473-4337-9F9F-C9762183C226.jpeg.579a6fea2319c68276cb45725288977d.jpeg

F1410BFF-3473-4337-9F9F-C9762183C226.jpeg.579a6fea2319c68276cb45725288977d.jpeg

RobertKK · 11-01-2019 12:54pm

Higher pressure than normal over the Arctic, lower than normal over western Europe in particular. It is saying a negative NAO, so northerly to easterly winds would dominate, if I am reading it correctly.

sryanbruen · 11-01-2019 1:03pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Can someone please help me interpret this chart from the GLOSEA?

Very large northern blocking with a deep area of low pressure to the southeast of us making the UK & Ireland a battleground and the mean wind direction would be easterly to northeasterly. The low would provide moisture for some of the white stuff.

YanSno · 11-01-2019 1:37pm

Proper Northern blocking, that would mean winds east to North Easterly for Ireland

gabeeg wrote: »

Can someone please help me interpret this chart from the GLOSEA?

hatrickpatrick · 11-01-2019 3:16pm

Some lovely charts showing up in the FV3 6z from 192 onwards - let's see if the 12z can keep this signal going!

patneve2 · 11-01-2019 3:17pm

I'm still very skeptical about our chances later in Jan and going into Feb but the AO ensemble forecast is definitely looking interesting ao.sprd2.gif

gabeeg · 11-01-2019 3:23pm

Why the scepticism?

patneve2 · 11-01-2019 3:39pm

Nothing scientific but after years of let downs I think its wise to be a bit skeptical until we have solid cross model agreement much closer to +0hrs. A shift here and there and we may just end up in no mans land as has happened countless times before. At the same time however I do agree with all that's been said above - the long range signals are all very positive and it looks like tropospheric vortex will be somewhat disturbed as we enter the last third of January.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 11-01-2019 3:46pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Nothing scientific but after years of let downs I think its wise to be a bit skeptical until we have solid cross model agreement much closer to +0hrs. A shift here and there and we may just end up in no mans land as has happened countless times before. At the same time however I do agree with all that's been said above - the long range signals are all very positive and it looks like tropospheric vortex will be somewhat disturbed as we enter the last third of January.

Model agreement at +0 hours isn’t very trusting in any model.

The netweather guys are all excited. Admittedly we are further west again.

Gonzo · 11-01-2019 3:51pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Why the scepticism?

the possibilities of really cold weather are not showing up reliably in the short term. All the very cold solutions are way out in FI several weeks away, so that would explain why not everyone is confident.

The Latest JMA models looks very promising, with increasing cold from January 18th. To begin with probably not that cold for Ireland, but certainly eastern UK could start to see very cold conditions slowly move westwards.

At the same time it shows a mid Atlantic ridge shifting northwards and settling over Greenland, allowing the freezer to fully make it's way across to Ireland by the 25th of January and lasting till about the 8th of February.

Below average heights over us and western Europe would indicate some precipitation, mostly in the form of snow and hail effecting many parts of the country, especially the east.

patneve2 · 11-01-2019 3:54pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Model agreement at +0 hours isn’t very trusting in any model.

The netweather guys are all excited. Admittedly we are further west again.

Maybe not +0hr but for me the excitement will only start when I see cross model agreement for snowy charts below the 150 mark. I can't remember how it went last year but if I recall correctly the only time that a cold spell has been modeled correctly and precisely from the depths of FI right down to impact was the November/December 2010 North Easterly. Anyways, interesting model watching ahead that's for sure.

YanSno · 11-01-2019 5:28pm

You need NAO also to go negative, at the moment mean line is positive to neutral for the next 10 days. Few outliers going strongly negative very early but most members are going for slightly positive to neutral. Trend is downwards anyway. For the next 10 days it will be on and off westerly / North westerly with cold to mild intervals.

patneve2 wrote: »

I'm still very skeptical about our chances later in Jan and going into Feb but the AO ensemble forecast is definitely looking interesting

Artane2002 · 11-01-2019 6:08pm

Lovely GFS 12z bringing heavy snow showers and strong northeasterly winds to the east (windy everywhere). Too far out to take too seriously and especially trying to find where exactly will get the showers

pad199207 · 11-01-2019 6:12pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Lovely GFS 12z bringing heavy snow showers and strong northeasterly winds to the east (windy everywhere). Too far out to take too seriously and especially trying to find where exactlywill get the showers

Northeasterly? Naas Road corridor so. I’ll wait for a few more runs before possibly taking bookings for snow loving lodgers if last Feb and Dec 2010 is anything to go by!

BLIZZARD7 · 11-01-2019 6:36pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Lovely GFS 12z bringing heavy snow showers and strong northeasterly winds to the east (windy everywhere). Too far out to take too seriously and especially trying to find where exactlywill get the showers

Indeed, it doesn't get much better than this for snow lovers in the east of the country -

gfs-0-264.png?12

Encouraging signs of something significant building for the last week of Jan... UKMO very good at day 6

sdanseo · 11-01-2019 8:40pm

As mentioned in the general chat thread, GFS para showing some unreal scenes in deep FI. Good output for nearer (+240hrs) as well.

264hrs
gfs-0-264.png?12

360hrs

YanSno · 11-01-2019 9:20pm

That's a messy looking output, sleet to snow then back to sleet

sdanseo wrote: »

As mentioned in the general chat thread, GFS para showing some unreal scenes in deep FI. Good output for nearer (+240hrs) as well.

264hrs

360hrs

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST