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GAA Betting

18911131430

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 948 ✭✭✭Unknownability


    Same As wrote: »
    -5.2 for today.


    Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):



    Jennings Total Points Staked: 204.5
    Jennings Profit/Loss: -11.45
    Jennings Total Selections: 92
    Jennings Total Winners: 32
    %: 33.71%


    Boylan Total Points Staked: 110
    Boylan Profit/Loss: -13.41
    Boylan Total Selections: 65
    Boylan Total Winners: 21
    %: 32.31%

    29/11/2020:


    Limerick -2 (Limerick vs Galway)
    3pts 10-11 Betway

    Over 55.5 points (Limerick vs Galway)
    3pts 6-4 Boylesports

    Over 28.5 Limerick points (Limerick vs Galway)
    1pt evens Boylesports

    He will get stake returned for Fennelly, so not as bad as it looks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    Same As wrote: »
    Hindsight is 20/20, those odds look great now, of course, because they turned out to be winners. Where was this post before or during the game at half time rather than when the game is over?

    Did you take the opportunity to follow your own belated guidance? If so, you should post the screenshot of it in the Aftertiming thread here.

    I was only pointing out that there is value to be made in the half-time market. I never said anything about covering the bet for fear of snowflakes in here losing their **** about after timing.

    As requested, I have uploaded the screenshot here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115455819#post115455819

    Although it wasn't my intention to brag about my meagre winnings from tiny wagers, I guess if I'm called out on it, I need to prove my point.

    By the way, and take this whatever way you like, if you think 9/2 on a Waterford win at half-time, only looks like good value retrospectively, then you know very little about hurling and even less about gambling.


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    RIALTO1 wrote: »
    So true, I mean Kilkenny -6 first half handicap was 8/1 - always go after them odds guys! :rolleyes:

    Ah, no it wasn't. It was actually 5/6.

    What point are you trying to make exactly?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,796 ✭✭✭spurshero


    I was only pointing out that there is value to be made in the half-time market. I never said anything about covering the bet for fear of snowflakes in here losing their **** about after timing.

    As requested, I have uploaded the screenshot here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115455819#post115455819

    Although it wasn't my intention to brag about my meagre winnings from tiny wagers, I guess if I'm called out on it, I need to prove my point.

    By the way, and take this whatever way you like, if you think 9/2 on a Waterford win at half-time, only looks like good value retrospectively then you know very little about hurling and even less about gambling.
    Nice . Well done . I don’t post too much here but I have followed a couple of your bets this year especially the total points and you always give good reasoning and never far away . I think the other posters arguements were tell us when your doing the bets not after they win . Lol!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Haven't done much hurling betting this championship. But have been paying a half eye to the total points spreads and i think you'd be well ahead of the game if you'd backed the overs blind, (with exception of tipp-cork, which was best avoided due to inclement conditions).

    That said, it's +55.5 today so it's gradually being pushed higher. I wouldn't go unders anyway.

    Instead, i'm going in on subs betting.
    Galway subs to score over 1.5 4/6
    Limerick subs to score over 2.5 5/6

    It's tight looking at past matches, but i can see the likes of Flynn, Ryan, Boylan, Casey all coming in early enough and having a few chances to cop on both sides. Expecting high scoring which will help.

    Won't let me do it as a double so 2 singles it is.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 999 ✭✭✭mjp


    I was only pointing out that there is value to be made in the half-time market. I never said anything about covering the bet for fear of snowflakes in here losing their **** about after timing.

    As requested, I have uploaded the screenshot here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115455819#post115455819

    Although it wasn't my intention to brag about my meagre winnings from tiny wagers, I guess if I'm called out on it, I need to prove my point.

    By the way, and take this whatever way you like, if you think 9/2 on a Waterford win at half-time, only looks like good value retrospectively then you know very little about hurling and even less about gambling.

    Fair play on the bet but I was shocked to see that waterford who were 7/4 pre match were only 9/2 at ht when they trailing by 7 points. Punt a good lot in running on matches and find it a profitable angle to take with lots of value available but thought in my own head that they would be a 7or 8/1 shot atleast at that stage.


  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Arian Wrong Shop


    You got robbed on the half-time bet. They were 7/1 with Betfair.


  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Arian Wrong Shop


    Galway by exactly 3 points @16/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    You got robbed on the half-time bet. They were 7/1 with Betfair.

    I don't have an account with them. Good Shout, must sign up.

    I won my bet by the way so, no, I didn't get robbed.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭Pogue eile



    I won my bet by the way so, no, I didn't get robbed.

    You don't understand value and betting so. 9/2 was a shocking price.


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    mjp wrote: »
    Fair play on the bet but I was shocked to see that waterford who were 7/4 pre match were only 9/2 at ht when they trailing by 7 points. Punt a good lot in running on matches and find it a profitable angle to take with lots of value available but thought in my own head that they would be a 7or 8/1 shot at least at that stage.

    I think we have to see past the history and the colours of the jerseys.

    7 points is nothing in hurling. You have to take current form into account. Kilkenny were not pulling up any trees this year, struggling with narrow wins over Dublin and Galway. I thought Waterford's form was as impressive, if not more so, beating Clare and Cork out the door.

    The teams were level by the water-break and Waterford only scored one goal in that time so it wasn't a freak come-back by any means.

    There is very, very, little separating the top nine teams in the country. 9/2 makes no sense with 35 minutes+ of hurling to play and only three belts of a hurley between the teams.


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    You don't understand value and betting so. 9/2 was a shocking price.

    It was yeah.

    And I'll enjoy spending my winnings.

    Did you get on better odds yourself?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    It was yeah.

    And I'll enjoy spending my winnings.

    Did you get on better odds yourself?

    I didn't, backing 10/1 shots at 9/2 is not for me.

    I'm sure you will enjoy it, can you give us the value for today, you know not at 7 o'clock tonight!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭Chalk McHugh


    I fancy the even money on offer for Jason to Flynn to score a point for a bit of added interest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 999 ✭✭✭mjp


    I fancy the even money on offer for Jason to Flynn to score a point for a bit of added interest.


    No mention of it on powers site but guessing this bet still stands if player doesn't start. Decent bet but i
    think better value than this bet is galway subs over 1.5 at 4/6 which highlighted above by another poster. Shane o Neill hasn't been afraid to make changes and expect him to make use of a minimum 4 subs irrespective of winning or loosing game. Galway subs had huge impact on scoreboard and turning around last week's game so he will turn to them early if things not going his way.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭Chalk McHugh


    mjp wrote: »
    No mention of it on powers site but guessing this bet still stands if player doesn't start. Decent bet but i
    think better value than this bet is galway subs over 1.5 at 4/6 which highlighted above by another poster. Shane o Neill hasn't been afraid to make changes and expect him to make use of a minimum 4 subs irrespective of winning or loosing game. Galway subs had huge impact on scoreboard and turning around last week's game so he will turn to them early if things not going his way.

    Is that on PP?


  • Registered Users Posts: 727 ✭✭✭slimshady007


    A lot of those reasons are hard to quantify- a sense of ignorance and they’ve learnt a lot along the way.

    What I see in Cavan from looking at scoring tallies is a lack individuals with scoring power, a spread of scorers yes, but a lack of reliable go to man like an Andy Moran, Michael Murphy or Conor McManus.

    Also Ulster championship form is so different to croke park form. It’s a totally different ball game. Far more ground to be covered, far more weaknesses in conditioning exposed in Croke park.

    If Cavan can win the ball close to the Dublin goal enough times they can make it sticky for the dubs but I’m not sure they can.

    Cavan can probably hope to score between 12-15 points in this game. Dublin would the. have to make 27- 30 to cover the spread.

    I agree we dont have a recognised go to forward but I dont thinks it's a major negative. Keep Murphy quiet and you go a long way to beating Donegal, keep McManus quiet and you go a long way to beating Monaghan (Cavan done both of these). We had 9 different different scorers against Donegal so I'd see it as a positive that we have scores coming from all over the pitch rather than predominantly from one player.

    What I mean by ignorance is they seem to have an attitude of we dont care who we're playing we'll have a go at them anyway. The memories of last years Ulster final could well have left a mark (ie. Meath v Dublin) but from the first minute they put it up to Donegal. There were several situations where they could've dropped the head and had the excuses ready to go but they knuckled down and stepped up when they had to (I personally thought the second black card would be the end of us).

    They've learned that sitting back doesnt suit them and the more attacking style plays to their strengths. They've had a few finds who likely wouldn't have been starters pre-COVID (Thomas Galligan, James Smith, Chris Conroy, etc).

    I agree re Croke Park that it's a totally different environment and that's my biggest concern for us (the stats back up Dublins advantage in Croker). I dont think the game should be played there but I know the players want to play there and it wont be changed so we'll just have to face up to it. As I mentioned before there were obviously no celebrations after the Donegal game (they were on it for days after last years final despite been hammered) so they shouldn't lack for fitness given the run of tough games they've had and they've always seen games out better than their opponents.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 999 ✭✭✭mjp


    Is that on PP?

    Bet gone to 1/2 in powers


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    I agree we dont have a recognised go to forward but I dont thinks it's a major negative. Keep Murphy quiet and you go a long way to beating Donegal, keep McManus quiet and you go a long way to beating Monaghan.

    Dublin have 15 Michael Murphy's and 15 Conor McManus's!


  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Arian Wrong Shop


    Concannon MOTM @25/1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    Limerick vs Galway
    No Goals on Boyle is available at half-time at 9/2.
    Not saying it's definitely going to happen but both these teams are points-merchants, very few goal chances created in the first 39 minutes of play.
    Worth a small flutter...


  • Registered Users Posts: 673 ✭✭✭RIALTO1


    Limerick vs Galway
    No Goals on Boyle is available at half-time at 9/2.
    Not saying it's definitely going to happen but both these teams are points-merchants, very few goal chances created in the first 39 minutes of play.
    Worth a small flutter...

    13/2 B356


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    RIALTO1 wrote: »
    13/2 B356

    Even tastier. Hope someone gets on that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    Limerick vs Galway
    No Goals on Boyle is available at half-time at 9/2.
    Not saying it's definitely going to happen but both these teams are points-merchants, very few goal chances created in the first 39 minutes of play.
    Worth a small flutter...

    All-Ireland SHC semi-final
    Limerick 0-26 Galway 0-24, Croke Park, 4pm

    Back of the net.

    Yet again I have demonstrated how unsophisticated the odds-setters are on the GAA market.

    When will ye listen to me? :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭Chalk McHugh


    Jason Flynm came on with over 25 minutes left and barely got a sniff of a ball. He's usually good for a couple of scores but not today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    I didn't, backing 10/1 shots at 9/2 is not for me.

    I'm sure you will enjoy it, can you give us the value for today, you know not at 7 o'clock tonight!

    So I just did.
    One single bet again at nice odds of 9/2 and it came in.

    I think getting returns on 9/2 is a result. I'm a bit confused others would say 9/2 odds was a bad bet because they perceived the odds of it happening were low.

    If the bet came in that's all that matters. In the case of the Waterford/Kilkenny game, it was level by the water-break. I thought the odds were marked up incorrectly and the game bore it out.

    You sometimes see the market differently to the bookie. You pit your knowledge against him and sometimes you came out on top. If the odds are attractive you only need the odd win to break even over time. That's a win for me.

    Do you think we could try encouraging each other, getting our heads down and really taking on the bookie on the GAA market? Other, more sophisticated markets are run by algorithms, soccer betting, for instance, is incredibly difficult to succeed at. Other sports, like horse-racing, are inherently bent just to keep the business ticking along. But I genuinely believe there is money to be made on the GAA markets, particularly in-play betting.

    Like, on the Limerick/Galway semi-final how could 'No goals' be 13/2 on Bet 365 at half-time? We've already had a full half of no goals. What's the likelihood the same thing will happen in the next 35? Evens? 2/1? 3/1. Where are they getting 13/2? In what world do those odds make sense?

    Also, I'm sure many of you are aware that the odds on each team winning oscillates wildly throughout the game on in-game betting. Limerick were available at evens after 15 minutes. I hope some spotted that. They were four points behind at the time but that is nothing in a game where 60+ points can be scored.

    So let's stop being ratty with each other and remember why we're here - to spot anomalies and openings in the market and exploit them.

    Until next time...this is your Captain speaking.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭kilkenny34


    So I just did.
    One single bet again at nice odds of 9/2 and it came in.

    I think getting returns on 9/2 is a result. I'm a bit confused others would say it was a bad bet because the odds of it coming in were less than the odds the bet was placed on.

    If the bet came in that makes no sense.
    You saw the market differently to the bookie and you pitted your knowledge against him and came out on top. That's a win for me.

    Do you think we could try encouraging each other, getting our heads down and really taking on the bookie on the GAA market? Other markets are run by
    algorithms, but I genuinely believe there is money to be made on the GAA.

    Like how could 'No goals' be 13/2 on Bet 365 at half-time? In what world do those odds make sense. Also, I'm sure many of you are aware that the odds on each team winning oscillates wildly throughout the game on in-game betting. Limerick were available at evens after 15 minutes. I hope some spotted that. They were four points behind at the time but that is nothing in a game where 60+ points can be scored.

    So let's stop being ratty with each other and remember why we're here - to spot anomalies and openings in the market and exploit them.

    Until next time...this is your Captain speaking.....


    🀣🀣🀣🀣 calm down chap


  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭kilkenny34


    Gearoid Hegarthy was quoted at 3s for HOTY,straight into 5/2 but think that's value. Although he would need a solid performance in the final. Remember in 11 Lar was 1/3 before the final,also P Mannion was raging hot fav in 18 and didnt get it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 999 ✭✭✭mjp


    kilkenny34 wrote: »
    Gearoid Hegarthy was quoted at 3s for HOTY,straight into 5/2 but think that's value. Although he would need a solid performance in the final. Remember in 11 Lar was 1/3 before the final,also P Mannion was raging hot fav in 18 and didnt get it.

    He was 8/1 before today's game.


  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭kilkenny34


    mjp wrote: »
    He was 8/1 before today's game.


    Good price,it all comes down to the semi and final really and he was good today. I also think the media love praising certain players and he has def been 1 of them,in fairness deservedly so.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ianburke


    no goal was indeed 13/2 on 365 at halftime. i was backing the draw at 14/1(other bookies had it between 9 and no better than 12).


  • Registered Users Posts: 673 ✭✭✭RIALTO1


    Ah, no it wasn't. It was actually 5/6.

    What point are you trying to make exactly?

    after-timing


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭Chalk McHugh


    All Ire final

    Limerick 4/11
    Waterford 11/4

    Possibly the lowest odds for a favourite in a hurling All Ireland in a long time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    RIALTO1 wrote: »
    after-timing

    No after-timing today. Still winning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,796 ✭✭✭spurshero


    Limerick vs Galway
    No Goals on Boyle is available at half-time at 9/2.
    Not saying it's definitely going to happen but both these teams are points-merchants, very few goal chances created in the first 39 minutes of play.
    Worth a small flutter...

    Great shout .


  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    All Ire final

    Limerick 4/11
    Waterford 11/4

    Possibly the lowest odds for a favourite in a hurling All Ireland in a long time.

    Superb value on Waterford there.

    If they show the same passion and desire as they did in the second half against Kilkenny, I don't think Limerick will cope with the intensity.

    I think Waterford will want it more, it will go down to the wire, and that hunger could be enough to see them through.

    I'm going heavy on Waterford here. I'll keep an eye on in-play betting and take Limerick at evens if the opportunity arises. The way in-play betting has been going I expect it will.

    Only a draw then would wipe out the arbitrage.

    Get on this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,555 ✭✭✭Same As


    Same As wrote: »

    29/11/2020:


    Limerick -2 (Limerick vs Galway)
    3pts 10-11 +2.73 Betway

    Over 55.5 points (Limerick vs Galway)
    3pts 6-4 Boylesports -3

    Over 28.5 Limerick points (Limerick vs Galway)
    1pt evens Boylesports -1

    Boylan -1.27 yesterday.

    Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):



    Jennings Total Points Staked: 204.5
    Jennings Profit/Loss: -11.45
    Jennings Total Selections: 92
    Jennings Total Winners: 32
    %: 33.71%


    Boylan Total Points Staked: 116
    Boylan Profit/Loss: -13.68
    Boylan Total Selections: 67
    Boylan Total Winners: 22
    %: 32.84%


  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭kilkenny34


    Cannot understand how Canning is evens for an all star,you would think if Galway get a forward it would be Concannon who is 6s with boyles.Canning has been non existent from play all year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    kilkenny34 wrote: »
    Cannot understand how Canning is evens for an all star,you would think if Galway get a forward it would be Concannon who is 6s with boyles.Canning has been non existent from play all year.

    It's terrible value, kind of thing makes you want to be a layer. If Kelly is included in the forwards that would make 4 locks imo, which would leave half a dozen others scrapping out 2 places. The 6s on concannon does seem fair alright, it's 4 in the places i checked. Also think Hutchinson has a squeak at 9/4 but probably need a decent final to make it. Kelly being picked in midfield would be a gamechanger.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 132 ✭✭kilkenny34


    It's terrible value, kind of thing makes you want to be a layer. If Kelly is included in the forwards that would make 4 locks imo, which would leave half a dozen others scrapping out 2 places. The 6s on concannon does seem fair alright, it's 4 in the places i checked. Also think Hutchinson has a squeak at 9/4 but probably need a decent final to make it. Kelly being picked in midfield would be a gamechanger.


    Yeah concannon is no cert or anything but he has to be Galways front runner. I think some of the odds compilers are hopeless,powers had Galligan at 3s last Monday afternoon,one my friends back it.However they got 3s is a mystery,odds on now,barring a nightmare v the dubs he has it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    kilkenny34 wrote: »
    Yeah concannon is no cert or anything but he has to be Galways front runner. I think some of the odds compilers are hopeless,powers had Galligan at 3s last Monday afternoon,one my friends back it.However they got 3s is a mystery,odds on now,barring a nightmare v the dubs he has it.

    I think it's a shade of value alright, not something I'd say too often about boyles! I thought the 4s elsewhere looked fair, so 6s is not bad at all. Wonder will it stay at that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭ciaran1988


    Canning will definitely get one I feel. I think he been very impressive in a more of a play maker role this year. Nailing 4 sidelines in one game and also having to be stretchered off the pitch will be things that stick with the voters which I think also helps his case


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭mountgomery burns


    ciaran1988 wrote: »
    Canning will definitely get one I feel. I think he been very impressive in a more of a play maker role this year. Nailing 4 sidelines in one game and also having to be stretchered off the pitch will be things that stick with the voters which I think also helps his case

    Why would he get an all star for being stretchered off?
    Fair enough, his sidelines were excellent. He also missed two frees though.

    His contribution from play has been poor the last couple of games and the two prior was nothing remarkable. Twould be the softest all star anyone ever got were he to get one and I cannot believe the odds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭ciaran1988


    Why would he get an all star for being stretchered off?
    Fair enough, his sidelines were excellent. He also missed two frees though.

    His contribution from play has been poor the last couple of games and the two prior was nothing remarkable. Twould be the softest all star anyone ever got were he to get one and I cannot believe the odds.

    Because the voting for all stars every year is a joke and the ones voting on it will remember Canning being stretchered off as well as hitting 4 sidelines over. More sympathy votes as he is one of the top hurlers of this generation he will gather votes easier. I haven’t said he deserves one just think that will help his case with the journalists etc voting on the award


  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭ciaran1988


    Wether Tony Kelly gets picked for his all star at midfield or forwards will have a huge bearing. I think there is one spot up for grabs in the back line and It’s possibly between Dan Morrissey at 7/2 and Shane McNulty 5/1 whoever comes out on top on all ireland final day


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭mountgomery burns


    ciaran1988 wrote: »
    Wether Tony Kelly gets picked for his all star at midfield or forwards will have a huge bearing. I think there is one spot up for grabs in the back line and It’s possibly between Dan Morrissey at 7/2 and Shane McNulty 5/1 whoever comes out on top on all ireland final day

    Possibly, they might do something like put Callum Lyons in corner back to facilitate Byrnes and Hayes at wing backs. All depends on the final, I actually dunno has there ever been a more up in the air selection than this year.

    I honestly dunno what way it'll go if Limerick were to lose the final.


  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭ciaran1988


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/gaa/arid-40110941.html

    The Irish Examiner current all star selections


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭Chalk McHugh


    ciaran1988 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/gaa/arid-40110941.html

    The Irish Examiner current all star selections

    I'd pretty much agree with that team.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    ciaran1988 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/gaa/arid-40110941.html

    The Irish Examiner current all star selections

    I think looking at that it just shows how many will depend on the final - Prunty v Morrissey, Hayes v Lyons are two prime examples. Tom Morrissey wouldn't have been on too many teams before last weekend, just shows the weight the semis and final have on these.

    Personally I thought Concannon was Galway's best forward but neither the oddsmakers or the Examiner agree! And Joe Canning has gotten All Stars for less than what he did this year so I wouldn't rule him out at all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 279 ✭✭turniphead


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    I think looking at that it just shows how many will depend on the final - Prunty v Morrissey, Hayes v Lyons are two prime examples. Tom Morrissey wouldn't have been on too many teams before last weekend, just shows the weight the semis and final have on these.

    Personally I thought Concannon was Galway's best forward but neither the oddsmakers or the Examiner agree! And Joe Canning has gotten All Stars for less than what he did this year so I wouldn't rule him out at all.

    Might be worth backing Conor Prunty and Dan Morrissey? Both around 3/1 currently. I don't think there's been an obvious standout full-back this year so there's a chance it'll go to the winners of the final.


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