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GAA Betting

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Comments

  • #542
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    kilkenny34 wrote: »
    Yeah concannon is no cert or anything but he has to be Galways front runner. I think some of the odds compilers are hopeless,powers had Galligan at 3s last Monday afternoon,one my friends back it.However they got 3s is a mystery,odds on now,barring a nightmare v the dubs he has it.

    I think it's a shade of value alright, not something I'd say too often about boyles! I thought the 4s elsewhere looked fair, so 6s is not bad at all. Wonder will it stay at that.


  • #543
    ciaran1988
    Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭ciaran1988


    Canning will definitely get one I feel. I think he been very impressive in a more of a play maker role this year. Nailing 4 sidelines in one game and also having to be stretchered off the pitch will be things that stick with the voters which I think also helps his case


  • #544
    mountgomery burns
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭mountgomery burns


    ciaran1988 wrote: »
    Canning will definitely get one I feel. I think he been very impressive in a more of a play maker role this year. Nailing 4 sidelines in one game and also having to be stretchered off the pitch will be things that stick with the voters which I think also helps his case

    Why would he get an all star for being stretchered off?
    Fair enough, his sidelines were excellent. He also missed two frees though.

    His contribution from play has been poor the last couple of games and the two prior was nothing remarkable. Twould be the softest all star anyone ever got were he to get one and I cannot believe the odds.


  • #545
    ciaran1988
    Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭ciaran1988


    mountgomery burns wrote: »
    Why would he get an all star for being stretchered off?
    Fair enough, his sidelines were excellent. He also missed two frees though.

    His contribution from play has been poor the last couple of games and the two prior was nothing remarkable. Twould be the softest all star anyone ever got were he to get one and I cannot believe the odds.

    Because the voting for all stars every year is a joke and the ones voting on it will remember Canning being stretchered off as well as hitting 4 sidelines over. More sympathy votes as he is one of the top hurlers of this generation he will gather votes easier. I haven’t said he deserves one just think that will help his case with the journalists etc voting on the award


  • #546
    ciaran1988
    Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭ciaran1988


    Wether Tony Kelly gets picked for his all star at midfield or forwards will have a huge bearing. I think there is one spot up for grabs in the back line and It’s possibly between Dan Morrissey at 7/2 and Shane McNulty 5/1 whoever comes out on top on all ireland final day


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  • #547
    mountgomery burns
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,148 ✭✭✭mountgomery burns


    ciaran1988 wrote: »
    Wether Tony Kelly gets picked for his all star at midfield or forwards will have a huge bearing. I think there is one spot up for grabs in the back line and It’s possibly between Dan Morrissey at 7/2 and Shane McNulty 5/1 whoever comes out on top on all ireland final day

    Possibly, they might do something like put Callum Lyons in corner back to facilitate Byrnes and Hayes at wing backs. All depends on the final, I actually dunno has there ever been a more up in the air selection than this year.

    I honestly dunno what way it'll go if Limerick were to lose the final.


  • #548
    ciaran1988
    Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭ciaran1988


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/gaa/arid-40110941.html

    The Irish Examiner current all star selections


  • #549
    Chalk McHugh
    Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭Chalk McHugh


    ciaran1988 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/gaa/arid-40110941.html

    The Irish Examiner current all star selections

    I'd pretty much agree with that team.


  • #550
    Pogue eile
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    ciaran1988 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/gaa/arid-40110941.html

    The Irish Examiner current all star selections

    I think looking at that it just shows how many will depend on the final - Prunty v Morrissey, Hayes v Lyons are two prime examples. Tom Morrissey wouldn't have been on too many teams before last weekend, just shows the weight the semis and final have on these.

    Personally I thought Concannon was Galway's best forward but neither the oddsmakers or the Examiner agree! And Joe Canning has gotten All Stars for less than what he did this year so I wouldn't rule him out at all.


  • #551
    turniphead
    Registered Users Posts: 279 ✭✭turniphead


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    I think looking at that it just shows how many will depend on the final - Prunty v Morrissey, Hayes v Lyons are two prime examples. Tom Morrissey wouldn't have been on too many teams before last weekend, just shows the weight the semis and final have on these.

    Personally I thought Concannon was Galway's best forward but neither the oddsmakers or the Examiner agree! And Joe Canning has gotten All Stars for less than what he did this year so I wouldn't rule him out at all.

    Might be worth backing Conor Prunty and Dan Morrissey? Both around 3/1 currently. I don't think there's been an obvious standout full-back this year so there's a chance it'll go to the winners of the final.


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  • #552
    dobman88
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,535 ✭✭✭dobman88


    I see the 20/1 on Cavan is gone. Best price 18s but generally 16s. Dubs best price 1/50 but generally 1/100, having been out at 1/125 with bet 365 at one stage.

    Is that not a terrible price for Cavan? If they're saying the Dubs only lose 1 in 100 how can they expect Cavan to win 1 in every 16. The handicap at -13 still looks like value to me but I expected it to come down to 11 or 12 when I saw Cavans price lowered. Wont go in again on -13 but will if it comes down a bit.


  • #553
    Did you smash it
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,311 ✭✭✭Did you smash it


    dobman88 wrote: »
    I see the 20/1 on Cavan is gone. Best price 18s but generally 16s. Dubs best price 1/50 but generally 1/100, having been out at 1/125 with bet 365 at one stage.

    Is that not a terrible price for Cavan? If they're saying the Dubs only lose 1 in 100 how can they expect Cavan to win 1 in every 16. The handicap at -13 still looks like value to me but I expected it to come down to 11 or 12 when I saw Cavans price lowered. Wont go in again on -13 but will if it comes down a bit.

    Just to help you with those odds if you put a euro on Cavan to win at odds of 20/1 that means you will lose one euro.


  • #554
    dobman88
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,535 ✭✭✭dobman88


    Did you smash it wrote: »
    Just to help you with those odds if you put a euro on Cavan to win at odds of 20/1 that means you will lose one euro.

    :pac: I know that. I've no intention of backing them. I was more referencing the odds decreasing but the handicap staying the same. I'm confident in Dublin winning by 16 which is what I thought the handicap would be since Cavan won Ulster


  • #555
    Jfk66
    Registered Users Posts: 14 ✭Jfk66


    Cavan over 11.5 points @4/5 with paddy seems value as even Meath who got tanked mustered 10!


  • #556
    Capt. Autumn
    Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    Anyone else think 4/1 on Tipperary to beat Mayo on Sunday is over-generous.

    This Tipperary team will not be phased by the game, they are actually far more seasoned than what is a rookie Mayo team in transition.

    I think there is a good chance that Mayo's in-play odds would drift to 1/2 or better if Tipperary can recreate the intensity they showed against Cork. Quids in on Mayo then and pray it doesn't end level.


  • #557
    Same As
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,555 ✭✭✭Same As


    Jennings Selections 5/12/2020:


    Cavan to score a goal (Dublin vs Cavan)
    3pts 6-5 Boylesports

    Ciaran Kilkenny Footballer of the Year (All Ireland Senior Football Championship 2020)
    5pts 2-1 Paddy Power



    Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):



    Jennings Total Points Staked: 204.5
    Jennings Profit/Loss: -11.45
    Jennings Total Selections: 92
    Jennings Total Winners: 32
    %: 33.71%


    Boylan Total Points Staked: 116
    Boylan Profit/Loss: -13.68
    Boylan Total Selections: 67
    Boylan Total Winners: 22
    %: 32.84%


  • #558
    47akak
    Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭47akak


    Boyles have J.Small, Mcdaid, Murchan not to score @ 4.5.

    Seems a touch big. 3 starters this year but twice in previous games one of those scored and one of those games it was Small who popped up for a point. Dublin scored 4-46 in those games. Hopefully it'll be a bit more competitive.


  • #559
    Danick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,458 ✭✭✭Danick


    Capt. Autumn wrote: »
    Anyone else think 4/1 on Tipperary to beat Mayo on Sunday is over-generous.

    This Tipperary team will not be phased by the game, they are actually far more seasoned than what is a rookie Mayo team in transition.

    I think there is a good chance that Mayo's in-play odds would drift to 1/2 or better if Tipperary can recreate the intensity they showed against Cork. Quids in on Mayo then and pray it doesn't end level.

    No - I don't think so - it will be close that is why PP set the line at 5 points but no Mayo will will win this.


  • #560
    passremarkable
    Registered Users Posts: 4,517 ✭✭✭passremarkable


    Just spotted a bet on PP and thought it be worth sharing. It’s one of Mullanes picks.
    De Burca, TJ Reid, T Kelly, S Bennett & Barron all to get an all star
    That’s evens

    I think that will come in
    Think TJ & Tony have done enough.
    The Waterford boys should be ok as is but if they get 7/8 out performances in the final that should seal it.


  • #561
    Pogue eile
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    passremarkable wrote: »
    Just spotted a bet on PP and thought it be worth sharing. It’s one of Mullanes picks.
    De Burca, TJ Reid, T Kelly, S Bennett & Barron all to get an all star
    That’s evens

    I think that will come in
    Think TJ & Tony have done enough.
    The Waterford boys should be ok as is but if they get 7/8 out performances in the final that should seal it.

    Seen it and was almost tempted but I don't think its good value to be honest, 33% of the All Star team before the final, I would want more than evens. Jamie Barron is the dodgy one for me, forward line is very competitive and I have a feeling they will move Cian Lynch to Mid Field to offset this meaning Barron looses out.


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  • #562
    RIALTO1
    Registered Users Posts: 673 ✭✭✭RIALTO1


    Capt. Autumn wrote: »
    Anyone else think 4/1 on Tipperary to beat Mayo on Sunday is over-generous.

    This Tipperary team will not be phased by the game, they are actually far more seasoned than what is a rookie Mayo team in transition.

    I think there is a good chance that Mayo's in-play odds would drift to 1/2 or better if Tipperary can recreate the intensity they showed against Cork. Quids in on Mayo then and pray it doesn't end level.

    Can't agrue that Mayo could very well trade 1/2 inplay, but even at that, you are staking 1pt at 4/1, then your possible 4pt gain @1/2 for a 2 pts return. So would be 5pts stake for a 1 pt profit. Draw beats you and Tipp win you are flat - so you are laying the draw at 5/1 in a Tipp no bet 3-way market. Don't think the juice is worth the squeeze.


  • #563
    RIALTO1
    Registered Users Posts: 673 ✭✭✭RIALTO1


    Cillian O'Connor Vs Conor Sweeney score match bet. PP have CoC @4/6 Vs 11/10 Sweeney. Boils have it 2/5 Vs 7/4. Some value on onside there.


  • #564
    Pogue eile
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    RIALTO1 wrote: »
    Cillian O'Connor Vs Conor Sweeney score match bet. PP have CoC @4/6 Vs 11/10 Sweeney. Boils have it 2/5 Vs 7/4. Some value on onside there.

    Are they draw no bet?


  • #565
    passremarkable
    Registered Users Posts: 4,517 ✭✭✭passremarkable


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    Seen it and was almost tempted but I don't think its good value to be honest, 33% of the All Star team before the final, I would want more than evens. Jamie Barron is the dodgy one for me, forward line is very competitive and I have a feeling they will move Cian Lynch to Mid Field to offset this meaning Barron looses out.

    Yea that’s a fair point. Barron is the one that’s dodgy. I think if he plays well he could get in, he is showing real form. I think the media love Lynch so he is ahead in the pecking order.I’d personally have Barron ahead of lynch on games played.
    Il sit on it for a few days


  • #566
    RIALTO1
    Registered Users Posts: 673 ✭✭✭RIALTO1


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    Are they draw no bet?

    yep


  • #567
    Pogue eile
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭Pogue eile


    RIALTO1 wrote: »
    yep

    Good stuff, I might have to do an account closing arb so. Thanks.


  • #568
    Capt. Autumn
    Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭Capt. Autumn


    RIALTO1 wrote: »
    Can't agrue that Mayo could very well trade 1/2 inplay, but even at that, you are staking 1pt at 4/1, then your possible 4pt gain @1/2 for a 2 pts return. So would be 5pts stake for a 1 pt profit. Draw beats you and Tipp win you are flat - so you are laying the draw at 5/1 in a Tipp no bet 3-way market. Don't think the juice is worth the squeeze.

    I agree with that. And a draw would blow the lot!

    But if Mayo dropped lower than 1/2, then trading against both teams starts making sense.

    Either way, a small bet on Tipp at 4/1 for the entertainment value, sit tight and see what happens in-play is how I'm playing it.


  • #569
    muletide
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,506 ✭✭✭muletide


    Any thoughts on Dean Rock to score 9 or more at 3-1. Think he will be good for at least one goal and combine this with a high number of freesia I think Cavan will have to foul a lot.

    Seems good value


  • #570
    RIALTO1
    Registered Users Posts: 673 ✭✭✭RIALTO1


    Pogue eile wrote: »
    Good stuff, I might have to do an account closing arb so. Thanks.

    Hardly worth it is it? But there is clear value on either end - which one is the question. Lower range of scorers for Tipp vs Mayo where they are well spread. Having said that Tipp gave up 6 pts to frees Vs Cork (think Collins missed a gimme as well off top of my head) so CoC could have 5-6 from frees alone.


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  • #571
    RIALTO1
    Registered Users Posts: 673 ✭✭✭RIALTO1


    Capt. Autumn wrote: »
    I agree with that. And a draw would blow the lot!

    But if Mayo dropped lower than 1/2, then trading against both teams starts making sense.

    Either way, a small bet on Tipp at 4/1 for the entertainment value, sit tight and see what happens in-play is how I'm playing it.

    Probably better trying to get on via the exchange, should get a little over 4/1, and a fairer inplay price than with the books (assuming liquidity won't be an issue if large stakes)


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