GAA Betting

Did you smash it wrote: »

I doubt they’ll give it a go. If you have no class upfront then ur better off not.

To add... I haven’t seen them play

Fair enough. I have seen them play and I've been cheering for them so far this year each time I've watched them. I'd love to see them win but I always try and let the head over rule the heart when punting.

Could look very foolish in 2 weeks time but sure.

Great write up Monty, just one thought occurred to me though, do you figures/averages from recent years need to be adjusted or at the very least treated with caution owing to the unique format this year and less games?

PS I would have Daithi Burke as the forerunner for FB and he is 11/4

Scoundrel wrote: »

I got Dublin to win 10 in a row priced up for the laugh during the week it's 15/2 how depressing is that? BTW back Dublin -14.

I asked boyles for prices on 7, 8, 9 and 10 in a row and they refused to quote them all

Just some comments from a biased Cavan man on the consensus Dublin will cover the spread against us.

Momentum
Cavan are bringing serious momentum into this game. There has been a noticeable shift in mindset that irrespective of the scoreline they keep plugging away. Previous years they would have lay down and took their beating (last years Ulster final and subsequent qualifier v Tyrone are prime examples) but this year there is definitely a resilience and steeliness there. They had pretty much all the major decisions of the Donegal game go against them and still found a way to win (despite been down a man for 20 mins of the game). Remember Donegal scored 6 of their 12 points during that the period when Cavan got their first black card so it's not inconceivable that Cavan could have held them to under 10 points with a decent referee.

System
Cavan tried the cautious stand off tactics in their first 3 games and almost paid the price before switching to a more direct aggressive style which suited them much better. The advanced mark rule is working well for them as the likes of McKiernan, Madden, Reilly, Galligan, etc are all well able to win ball inside and kick scores. It also gives them options as they have strong ball carriers too when they need to (C Brady and Smith are particularly good at this from the half back line).

Management Tactics
Mickey Graham has rightly earned enormous credit for his job in delivering an Ulster title this year. Remember Donegal had beaten Tyrone and Armagh (both D1 teams next year) on the way to the Ulster final so were well prepared. Cavan totally nullified Murphy and McHugh's impact on the game (without giving away many scorable frees). K Brady may not be the most stylish of footballers but was effective in negating Murphy so hopefully he can do similar next time out.

Conclusion
Obviously I'm not expecting Cavan to beat Dublin but I do expect them to cover the spread. There is a sense of ignorance about Cavan which makes me believe they wont lie down the way other teams have done. In terms of game prep, Cavan have had much the tougher route and learned an awful lot along the way. By comparison Dublin will have learned very little and will likely have had tougher in house games than what they've faced already. Another factor is this is no ordinary year so while Cavan would usually have been "celebrating" the Ulster title this week there were no such type of celebrations and they will be fully focussed on the game. The match ups will be crucial (potential match ups could be Faulkner v O'Callaghan, Clarke v Kilkenny, Galligan v Fenton, Gearoid v Small). Probably more than a hint of rose tinted glasses here but I don't think Cavan will lose by double figures.

Boylan Selections 28/11/2020 & 29/11/2020:


28/11/2020:


Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
3pts 10-11 Bet Victor

Colin Fennelly first goalscorer Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 7-1 Paddy Power

Colin Fennelly anytime goalscorer Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 7-4 Boylesports

Over 1.5 Kilkenny goals Kilkenny -1 (Kilkenny vs Waterford)
1pt 4-5 Paddy Power

Kilkenny to face Limerick in the All Ireland Hurling Championship Final
1pt 11-8 Paddy Power


29/11/2020:


Limerick -2 (Limerick vs Galway)
3pts 10-11 Betway

Over 55.5 points (Limerick vs Galway)
3pts 6-4 Boylesports

Over 28.5 Limerick points (Limerick vs Galway)
1pt evens Boylesports



Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):



Jennings Total Points Staked: 204.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -11.45
Jennings Total Selections: 92
Jennings Total Winners: 32
%: 33.71%


Boylan Total Points Staked: 103
Boylan Profit/Loss: -8.21
Boylan Total Selections: 60
Boylan Total Winners: 20
%: 33.33%

Unknownability wrote: »

Fennelly dropped

I was just about to post, not knowing the team news, that Fennelly was destroyed in the Leinster Final and Prunty has been very good for Waterford.

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

All-Ireland SHC semi-final
Kilkenny 2-23 Waterford 2-27, Croke Park, 6pm FT

Again, totally unsophisticated betting market by the bookies. in GAA betting

At half-time Waterford were offered at 5/6 with +6 points, handicap betting, on Boyle

To win, Waterford were an incredible 9/2.

Always go after the odds children, always go after the odds.

Hindsight is 20/20, those odds look great now, of course, because they turned out to be winners. Where was this post before or during the game at half time rather than when the game is over?

Did you take the opportunity to follow your own belated guidance? If so, you should post the screenshot of it in the Aftertiming thread here.

slimshady007 wrote: »

Just some comments from a biased Cavan man on the consensus Dublin will cover the spread against us.

Momentum
Cavan are bringing serious momentum into this game. There has been a noticeable shift in mindset that irrespective of the scoreline they keep plugging away. Previous years they would have lay down and took their beating (last years Ulster final and subsequent qualifier v Tyrone are prime examples) but this year there is definitely a resilience and steeliness there. They had pretty much all the major decisions of the Donegal game go against them and still found a way to win (despite been down a man for 20 mins of the game). Remember Donegal scored 6 of their 12 points during that the period when Cavan got their first black card so it's not inconceivable that Cavan could have held them to under 10 points with a decent referee.

System
Cavan tried the cautious stand off tactics in their first 3 games and almost paid the price before switching to a more direct aggressive style which suited them much better. The advanced mark rule is working well for them as the likes of McKiernan, Madden, Reilly, Galligan, etc are all well able to win ball inside and kick scores. It also gives them options as they have strong ball carriers too when they need to (C Brady and Smith are particularly good at this from the half back line).

Management Tactics
Mickey Graham has rightly earned enormous credit for his job in delivering an Ulster title this year. Remember Donegal had beaten Tyrone and Armagh (both D1 teams next year) on the way to the Ulster final so were well prepared. Cavan totally nullified Murphy and McHugh's impact on the game (without giving away many scorable frees). K Brady may not be the most stylish of footballers but was effective in negating Murphy so hopefully he can do similar next time out.

Conclusion
Obviously I'm not expecting Cavan to beat Dublin but I do expect them to cover the spread. There is a sense of ignorance about Cavan which makes me believe they wont lie down the way other teams have done. In terms of game prep, Cavan have had much the tougher route and learned an awful lot along the way. By comparison Dublin will have learned very little and will likely have had tougher in house games than what they've faced already. Another factor is this is no ordinary year so while Cavan would usually have been "celebrating" the Ulster title this week there were no such type of celebrations and they will be fully focussed on the game. The match ups will be crucial (potential match ups could be Faulkner v O'Callaghan, Clarke v Kilkenny, Galligan v Fenton, Gearoid v Small). Probably more than a hint of rose tinted glasses here but I don't think Cavan will lose by double figures.

A lot of those reasons are hard to quantify- a sense of ignorance and they’ve learnt a lot along the way.

What I see in Cavan from looking at scoring tallies is a lack individuals with scoring power, a spread of scorers yes, but a lack of reliable go to man like an Andy Moran, Michael Murphy or Conor McManus.

Also Ulster championship form is so different to croke park form. It’s a totally different ball game. Far more ground to be covered, far more weaknesses in conditioning exposed in Croke park.

If Cavan can win the ball close to the Dublin goal enough times they can make it sticky for the dubs but I’m not sure they can.

Cavan can probably hope to score between 12-15 points in this game. Dublin would the. have to make 27- 30 to cover the spread.

Same As wrote: »

Hindsight is 20/20, those odds look great now, of course, because they turned out to be winners. Where was this post before or during the game at half time rather than when the game is over?

Did you take the opportunity to follow your own belated guidance? If so, you should post the screenshot of it in the Aftertiming thread here.

I was only pointing out that there is value to be made in the half-time market. I never said anything about covering the bet for fear of snowflakes in here losing their **** about after timing.

As requested, I have uploaded the screenshot here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115455819#post115455819

Although it wasn't my intention to brag about my meagre winnings from tiny wagers, I guess if I'm called out on it, I need to prove my point.

By the way, and take this whatever way you like, if you think 9/2 on a Waterford win at half-time, only looks like good value retrospectively, then you know very little about hurling and even less about gambling.

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

I was only pointing out that there is value to be made in the half-time market. I never said anything about covering the bet for fear of snowflakes in here losing their **** about after timing.

As requested, I have uploaded the screenshot here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115455819#post115455819

Although it wasn't my intention to brag about my meagre winnings from tiny wagers, I guess if I'm called out on it, I need to prove my point.

By the way, and take this whatever way you like, if you think 9/2 on a Waterford win at half-time, only looks like good value retrospectively then you know very little about hurling and even less about gambling.

Nice . Well done . I don’t post too much here but I have followed a couple of your bets this year especially the total points and you always give good reasoning and never far away . I think the other posters arguements were tell us when your doing the bets not after they win . Lol!

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

I was only pointing out that there is value to be made in the half-time market. I never said anything about covering the bet for fear of snowflakes in here losing their **** about after timing.

As requested, I have uploaded the screenshot here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115455819#post115455819

Although it wasn't my intention to brag about my meagre winnings from tiny wagers, I guess if I'm called out on it, I need to prove my point.

By the way, and take this whatever way you like, if you think 9/2 on a Waterford win at half-time, only looks like good value retrospectively then you know very little about hurling and even less about gambling.

Fair play on the bet but I was shocked to see that waterford who were 7/4 pre match were only 9/2 at ht when they trailing by 7 points. Punt a good lot in running on matches and find it a profitable angle to take with lots of value available but thought in my own head that they would be a 7or 8/1 shot atleast at that stage.

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

I won my bet by the way so, no, I didn't get robbed.

You don't understand value and betting so. 9/2 was a shocking price.