GAA Betting

mjp wrote: »

Fair play on the bet but I was shocked to see that waterford who were 7/4 pre match were only 9/2 at ht when they trailing by 7 points. Punt a good lot in running on matches and find it a profitable angle to take with lots of value available but thought in my own head that they would be a 7or 8/1 shot at least at that stage.

I think we have to see past the history and the colours of the jerseys.

7 points is nothing in hurling. You have to take current form into account. Kilkenny were not pulling up any trees this year, struggling with narrow wins over Dublin and Galway. I thought Waterford's form was as impressive, if not more so, beating Clare and Cork out the door.

The teams were level by the water-break and Waterford only scored one goal in that time so it wasn't a freak come-back by any means.

There is very, very, little separating the top nine teams in the country. 9/2 makes no sense with 35 minutes+ of hurling to play and only three belts of a hurley between the teams.

Pogue eile wrote: »

You don't understand value and betting so. 9/2 was a shocking price.

It was yeah.

And I'll enjoy spending my winnings.

Did you get on better odds yourself?

Pogue eile

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

It was yeah.

And I'll enjoy spending my winnings.

Did you get on better odds yourself?

I didn't, backing 10/1 shots at 9/2 is not for me.

I'm sure you will enjoy it, can you give us the value for today, you know not at 7 o'clock tonight!

I fancy the even money on offer for Jason to Flynn to score a point for a bit of added interest.

mjp

Chalk McHugh wrote: »

I fancy the even money on offer for Jason to Flynn to score a point for a bit of added interest.

No mention of it on powers site but guessing this bet still stands if player doesn't start. Decent bet but i
think better value than this bet is galway subs over 1.5 at 4/6 which highlighted above by another poster. Shane o Neill hasn't been afraid to make changes and expect him to make use of a minimum 4 subs irrespective of winning or loosing game. Galway subs had huge impact on scoreboard and turning around last week's game so he will turn to them early if things not going his way.

mjp wrote: »

No mention of it on powers site but guessing this bet still stands if player doesn't start. Decent bet but i
think better value than this bet is galway subs over 1.5 at 4/6 which highlighted above by another poster. Shane o Neill hasn't been afraid to make changes and expect him to make use of a minimum 4 subs irrespective of winning or loosing game. Galway subs had huge impact on scoreboard and turning around last week's game so he will turn to them early if things not going his way.

Is that on PP?

slimshady007

Did you smash it wrote: »

A lot of those reasons are hard to quantify- a sense of ignorance and they’ve learnt a lot along the way.

What I see in Cavan from looking at scoring tallies is a lack individuals with scoring power, a spread of scorers yes, but a lack of reliable go to man like an Andy Moran, Michael Murphy or Conor McManus.

Also Ulster championship form is so different to croke park form. It’s a totally different ball game. Far more ground to be covered, far more weaknesses in conditioning exposed in Croke park.

If Cavan can win the ball close to the Dublin goal enough times they can make it sticky for the dubs but I’m not sure they can.

Cavan can probably hope to score between 12-15 points in this game. Dublin would the. have to make 27- 30 to cover the spread.

I agree we dont have a recognised go to forward but I dont thinks it's a major negative. Keep Murphy quiet and you go a long way to beating Donegal, keep McManus quiet and you go a long way to beating Monaghan (Cavan done both of these). We had 9 different different scorers against Donegal so I'd see it as a positive that we have scores coming from all over the pitch rather than predominantly from one player.

What I mean by ignorance is they seem to have an attitude of we dont care who we're playing we'll have a go at them anyway. The memories of last years Ulster final could well have left a mark (ie. Meath v Dublin) but from the first minute they put it up to Donegal. There were several situations where they could've dropped the head and had the excuses ready to go but they knuckled down and stepped up when they had to (I personally thought the second black card would be the end of us).

They've learned that sitting back doesnt suit them and the more attacking style plays to their strengths. They've had a few finds who likely wouldn't have been starters pre-COVID (Thomas Galligan, James Smith, Chris Conroy, etc).

I agree re Croke Park that it's a totally different environment and that's my biggest concern for us (the stats back up Dublins advantage in Croker). I dont think the game should be played there but I know the players want to play there and it wont be changed so we'll just have to face up to it. As I mentioned before there were obviously no celebrations after the Donegal game (they were on it for days after last years final despite been hammered) so they shouldn't lack for fitness given the run of tough games they've had and they've always seen games out better than their opponents.

mjp

Chalk McHugh wrote: »

Is that on PP?

Bet gone to 1/2 in powers

Pogue eile

slimshady007 wrote: »

I agree we dont have a recognised go to forward but I dont thinks it's a major negative. Keep Murphy quiet and you go a long way to beating Donegal, keep McManus quiet and you go a long way to beating Monaghan.

Dublin have 15 Michael Murphy's and 15 Conor McManus's!

[Deleted User]

Concannon MOTM @25/1

Limerick vs Galway
No Goals on Boyle is available at half-time at 9/2.
Not saying it's definitely going to happen but both these teams are points-merchants, very few goal chances created in the first 39 minutes of play.
Worth a small flutter...

RIALTO1

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Limerick vs Galway
No Goals on Boyle is available at half-time at 9/2.
Not saying it's definitely going to happen but both these teams are points-merchants, very few goal chances created in the first 39 minutes of play.
Worth a small flutter...

13/2 B356

RIALTO1 wrote: »

13/2 B356

Even tastier. Hope someone gets on that.

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Limerick vs Galway
No Goals on Boyle is available at half-time at 9/2.
Not saying it's definitely going to happen but both these teams are points-merchants, very few goal chances created in the first 39 minutes of play.
Worth a small flutter...

All-Ireland SHC semi-final
Limerick 0-26 Galway 0-24, Croke Park, 4pm

Back of the net.

Yet again I have demonstrated how unsophisticated the odds-setters are on the GAA market.

When will ye listen to me?

Jason Flynm came on with over 25 minutes left and barely got a sniff of a ball. He's usually good for a couple of scores but not today.

Pogue eile wrote: »

I didn't, backing 10/1 shots at 9/2 is not for me.

I'm sure you will enjoy it, can you give us the value for today, you know not at 7 o'clock tonight!

So I just did.
One single bet again at nice odds of 9/2 and it came in.

I think getting returns on 9/2 is a result. I'm a bit confused others would say 9/2 odds was a bad bet because they perceived the odds of it happening were low.

If the bet came in that's all that matters. In the case of the Waterford/Kilkenny game, it was level by the water-break. I thought the odds were marked up incorrectly and the game bore it out.

You sometimes see the market differently to the bookie. You pit your knowledge against him and sometimes you came out on top. If the odds are attractive you only need the odd win to break even over time. That's a win for me.

Do you think we could try encouraging each other, getting our heads down and really taking on the bookie on the GAA market? Other, more sophisticated markets are run by algorithms, soccer betting, for instance, is incredibly difficult to succeed at. Other sports, like horse-racing, are inherently bent just to keep the business ticking along. But I genuinely believe there is money to be made on the GAA markets, particularly in-play betting.

Like, on the Limerick/Galway semi-final how could 'No goals' be 13/2 on Bet 365 at half-time? We've already had a full half of no goals. What's the likelihood the same thing will happen in the next 35? Evens? 2/1? 3/1. Where are they getting 13/2? In what world do those odds make sense?

Also, I'm sure many of you are aware that the odds on each team winning oscillates wildly throughout the game on in-game betting. Limerick were available at evens after 15 minutes. I hope some spotted that. They were four points behind at the time but that is nothing in a game where 60+ points can be scored.

So let's stop being ratty with each other and remember why we're here - to spot anomalies and openings in the market and exploit them.

Until next time...this is your Captain speaking.....

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

So I just did.
One single bet again at nice odds of 9/2 and it came in.

I think getting returns on 9/2 is a result. I'm a bit confused others would say it was a bad bet because the odds of it coming in were less than the odds the bet was placed on.

If the bet came in that makes no sense.
You saw the market differently to the bookie and you pitted your knowledge against him and came out on top. That's a win for me.

Do you think we could try encouraging each other, getting our heads down and really taking on the bookie on the GAA market? Other markets are run by
algorithms, but I genuinely believe there is money to be made on the GAA.

Like how could 'No goals' be 13/2 on Bet 365 at half-time? In what world do those odds make sense. Also, I'm sure many of you are aware that the odds on each team winning oscillates wildly throughout the game on in-game betting. Limerick were available at evens after 15 minutes. I hope some spotted that. They were four points behind at the time but that is nothing in a game where 60+ points can be scored.

So let's stop being ratty with each other and remember why we're here - to spot anomalies and openings in the market and exploit them.

Until next time...this is your Captain speaking.....

ðŸ€£ðŸ€£ðŸ€£ðŸ€£ calm down chap

Gearoid Hegarthy was quoted at 3s for HOTY,straight into 5/2 but think that's value. Although he would need a solid performance in the final. Remember in 11 Lar was 1/3 before the final,also P Mannion was raging hot fav in 18 and didnt get it.

mjp

kilkenny34 wrote: »

Gearoid Hegarthy was quoted at 3s for HOTY,straight into 5/2 but think that's value. Although he would need a solid performance in the final. Remember in 11 Lar was 1/3 before the final,also P Mannion was raging hot fav in 18 and didnt get it.

He was 8/1 before today's game.

mjp wrote: »

He was 8/1 before today's game.

Good price,it all comes down to the semi and final really and he was good today. I also think the media love praising certain players and he has def been 1 of them,in fairness deservedly so.

ianburke

no goal was indeed 13/2 on 365 at halftime. i was backing the draw at 14/1(other bookies had it between 9 and no better than 12).

RIALTO1

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Ah, no it wasn't. It was actually 5/6.

What point are you trying to make exactly?

after-timing

All Ire final

Limerick 4/11
Waterford 11/4

Possibly the lowest odds for a favourite in a hurling All Ireland in a long time.

RIALTO1 wrote: »

after-timing

No after-timing today. Still winning.

spurshero

Capt. Autumn wrote: »

Limerick vs Galway
No Goals on Boyle is available at half-time at 9/2.
Not saying it's definitely going to happen but both these teams are points-merchants, very few goal chances created in the first 39 minutes of play.
Worth a small flutter...

Great shout .

Chalk McHugh wrote: »

All Ire final

Limerick 4/11
Waterford 11/4

Possibly the lowest odds for a favourite in a hurling All Ireland in a long time.

Superb value on Waterford there.

If they show the same passion and desire as they did in the second half against Kilkenny, I don't think Limerick will cope with the intensity.

I think Waterford will want it more, it will go down to the wire, and that hunger could be enough to see them through.

I'm going heavy on Waterford here. I'll keep an eye on in-play betting and take Limerick at evens if the opportunity arises. The way in-play betting has been going I expect it will.

Only a draw then would wipe out the arbitrage.

Get on this.

Same As

Same As wrote: »

29/11/2020:

Limerick -2 (Limerick vs Galway)
3pts 10-11 +2.73 Betway

Over 55.5 points (Limerick vs Galway)
3pts 6-4 Boylesports -3

Over 28.5 Limerick points (Limerick vs Galway)
1pt evens Boylesports -1

Boylan -1.27 yesterday.

Updated Running Profit Loss for Racing Post Tipsters (Excluding Outright Selections in Post #266):

Jennings Total Points Staked: 204.5
Jennings Profit/Loss: -11.45
Jennings Total Selections: 92
Jennings Total Winners: 32
%: 33.71%

Boylan Total Points Staked: 116
Boylan Profit/Loss: -13.68
Boylan Total Selections: 67
Boylan Total Winners: 22
%: 32.84%

Cannot understand how Canning is evens for an all star,you would think if Galway get a forward it would be Concannon who is 6s with boyles.Canning has been non existent from play all year.

Joe_ Public

kilkenny34 wrote: »

Cannot understand how Canning is evens for an all star,you would think if Galway get a forward it would be Concannon who is 6s with boyles.Canning has been non existent from play all year.

It's terrible value, kind of thing makes you want to be a layer. If Kelly is included in the forwards that would make 4 locks imo, which would leave half a dozen others scrapping out 2 places. The 6s on concannon does seem fair alright, it's 4 in the places i checked. Also think Hutchinson has a squeak at 9/4 but probably need a decent final to make it. Kelly being picked in midfield would be a gamechanger.