This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

nacho libre · 11-12-2011 6:03pm

wet bulb temperature looks good for tuesday and wednesday. but it seems higher at the end of the week

WolfeIRE · 11-12-2011 6:07pm

Mr.Crinklewood wrote: »

Not a weather expert. What is "kt"?

knot.

you can convert knots to kph here
http://www.militaryfactory.com/conversioncalculators/speed_knots_to_kilometers_per_hour.asp

nacho libre · 11-12-2011 6:08pm

http://xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

Su Campu · 11-12-2011 6:09pm

Solyad wrote: »

I don't normally do the "will it snow/rain/gale in my town" but I've to fly out of Dublin airport Thursday morning and back (from London) Friday evening so I'll put it this way... What level of storm does it take to disrupt Dublin airport typically. I've searched online and found a reference to a two hour closure due to 60mph cross winds in October but if thursday/Fridays storm hits the way it looks would it even be open?

Sometimes it's not the severity of the wind but the direction in relation to the runway heading that's the problem. Airliners have crosswind limits (i.e. the maximum crosswind component that has been demonstrated as safe) in the region of 34-40 knots (depends on the plane). A severe gale right down the runway will be easier than a Force 7 Strong Breeze at 45 ° to it.

Dublin has 4 runway directions - 28 (westerly), 01 (easterly), 16 (southsoutheasterly) and 34 (northnorthwesterly). As these winds will be coming from somewhere between a SW and SE direction, it will be between 28 (over Portmarnock) and 16 (over Garristown, Oldtown, Rolestown direction). Sometimes a strong wind of say 230 ° (SW) can be what closes the airport, as it's an equally strong crosswind on both 28 and 16. Winds will vary in direction during Thursday night, becoming strongest in the early hours of Friday morning, going on latest indications. It should be ok for Friday night, but Thursday morning could be iffy.

snow ghost · 11-12-2011 6:11pm

Rougies wrote: »

Here's a video of that Scottish wind turbine bursting into flames.

Quite an interesting site from Irish Wind Energy Association, Detailing all the wind farms in Ireland by county (Donegal seems to have the most); how much energy they produce and where they are, etc:

http://www.iwea.com/index.cfm/page/windmap

4Sheets · 11-12-2011 6:11pm

Brits being warned to watch out next week

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/storms-gale-force-winds-lash-britain-144939453.html

Iancar29 · 11-12-2011 6:12pm

Weather Online Tuesday 1800hrs

Net Weather Tuesday 1800hrs

darkman2 · 11-12-2011 6:13pm

redsunset wrote: »

Sorry if this comes across as too Extreme, but I designed this and sending it to my Family and friends just in case.

TheMilkyPirate · 11-12-2011 6:15pm

I remember a big storm some years ago, Think it was christmas eve not sure but it was around christmas I'll never forget that night. If anyone could help with pulling out a chart for that or provide a link it would be great.

Would love to compare.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-12-2011 6:16pm

What time is the ECM out lads ?

Harps · 11-12-2011 6:19pm

baraca wrote: »

I remember a big storm some years ago, Think it was christmas eve not sure but it was around christmas I'll never forget that night. If anyone could help with pulling out a chart for that or provide a link it would be great.

Would love to compare.

Christmas Eve 1997 probably, biggest storm in recent years for the south, 88 knot gust at Valentia

Stephens Day 1998 was the big one in the north, lost electricity and phone for about 5 days and a neighbour had his entire roof blown off a year old house. Definitely don't want a repeat of that. 98 knots at Malin and sustained category one hurricane force

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Dec1997_storm.PDF

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Dec1998_Storm.PDF

snow ghost · 11-12-2011 6:20pm

redsunset wrote: »

Sorry if this comes across as too Extreme, but I designed this and sending it to my Family and friends just in case.

:eek::eek::eek:
If the News of the World was still around they'd have hacked into your phone by now redsunset!

Mullaghteelin · 11-12-2011 6:21pm

12z GFS for Midnight Friday now has 10m wind speeds at Dublin airport hitting 90km/m with 850hpa winds reaching 223km/h!
I take it those 850winds, at an altitude of around 1000m, may try to work down to the surface in the strongest gusts?
For Dublin, the 12z GFS is the strongest GFS run Ive yet seen, marginally stronger than last nights 18z, which was the previous strongest so far.

It looks similar to this morning's ECM to my eyes, so it certainly has support!

JanuarySnowstor · 11-12-2011 6:23pm

Any word on how the ensembles are looking?

maquiladora · 11-12-2011 6:24pm

baraca wrote: »

I remember a big storm some years ago, Think it was christmas eve not sure but it was around christmas I'll never forget that night. If anyone could help with pulling out a chart for that or provide a link it would be great.

Would love to compare.

Christmas Eve 1997, it was the last big storm for the south, I'll never forget it. Archives are on wetterzentrale and meteociel, I'm on my phone so can't link.

maquiladora · 11-12-2011 6:25pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

What time is the ECM out lads ?

After six.

darkman2 · 11-12-2011 6:26pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Any word on how the ensembles are looking?

They are a bit breezy alright. Here is the control run.

gens-0-1-108.png?12

leahyl · 11-12-2011 6:26pm

maquiladora wrote: »

baraca wrote: »

I remember a big storm some years ago, Think it was christmas eve not sure but it was around christmas I'll never forget that night. If anyone could help with pulling out a chart for that or provide a link it would be great.

Would love to compare.

Christmas Eve 1997, it was the last big storm for the south, I'll never forget it. Archives are on wetterzentrale and meteociel, I'm on my phone so can't link.

Remember it well - I was in a Chirch in Cork City (being my devout self!) and I remember a few windows were blown in behind the altar and the branch of a tree sticking through! And the wind, my god the wind - unbelievable!

Mullaghteelin · 11-12-2011 6:26pm

Harps wrote: »

Christmas Eve 1997 probably, biggest storm in recent years for the south

Stephens Day 1998 was the big one in the north, lost electricity and phone for about 5 days and a neighbour had his entire roof blown off a year old house. Definitely don't want a repeat of that

If the Christmas Eve 1997 storm had happened on a random day in January, it would be mostly forgotten about by now, I suspect. It was bad, but with the exception of the Cork area, it was not extraordinarily bad. It seems to have become something of a legend.

Iancar29 · 11-12-2011 6:31pm

Harps wrote: »

Christmas Eve 1997 probably, biggest storm in recent years for the south

Stephens Day 1998 was the big one in the north, lost electricity and phone for about 5 days and a neighbour had his entire roof blown off a year old house. Definitely don't want a repeat of that

"Hi, My name is Ian , It has been 7 weeks since my last snow , im coping ok........

Im 21, I studied Climate and Earth System Science In UCD for 2 years, unfortunately , i couldnt cope with hours and hours travelling on bus every day so i exited from the course and now im In DIT studying Maths part-time, hope to get back into meteorology after i obtain my degree, and would love to move to Canada to study/work over there.
For me , my interest in Meteorology Started (probably like many) when i seen the film twister, no matter how many times ive seen it id always watch it again whenever it was on.
I remember well the Stephen's day storm of 98 ( i think it was that year! ) , we wer at the usual family get together , i was watching the film on the tv in the room and just by looking out the full-length windows it was like i was IN the film... then the power went and we all got to light candles for the rest of the night. "

Dotsie~tmp · 11-12-2011 6:31pm

redsunset wrote: »

Sorry if this comes across as too Extreme, but I designed this and sending it to my Family and friends just in case.

I can hear it now.

"..he means well..."

Sierra Oscar · 11-12-2011 6:32pm

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

If the Christmas Eve 1997 storm had happened on a random day in January, it would be mostly forgotten about by now, I suspect. It was bad, but with the exception of the Cork area, it was not extraordinarily bad. It seems to have become something of a legend.

We were without power in Tipperary for days. Wrecked havock on the Christmas dinner!

Haven't experienced a storm like that since to be honest. I have a distinct memory of attempting to save the roof of one of our neighbors houses alongside having to physically disarm our alarm system after it began sounding once the power was gone for days.

Sponge Bob · 11-12-2011 6:32pm

Solyad wrote: »

I've to fly out of Dublin airport Thursday morning and back (from London) Friday evening so I'll put it this way... What level of storm does it take to disrupt Dublin airport typically.

You will be grand, Aer Lingus were rehearsing their wind landing skillz since then and have it all pat. They will land!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYiLaK5bIJo

maquiladora · 11-12-2011 6:34pm

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

Harps wrote: »

Christmas Eve 1997 probably, biggest storm in recent years for the south

Stephens Day 1998 was the big one in the north, lost electricity and phone for about 5 days and a neighbour had his entire roof blown off a year old house. Definitely don't want a repeat of that

If the Christmas Eve 1997 storm had happened on a random day in January, it would be mostly forgotten about by now, I suspect. It was bad, but with the exception of the Cork area, it was not extraordinarily bad. It seems to have become something of a legend.

lol wut

Half the trees in our back garden blew down in Kilkenny, nothing like that has happened since in these parts.

I think it broke 50 year records for wind speeds in Kilkenny.

There is a Met Eireann pdf on it on their site.

force eleven · 11-12-2011 6:42pm

baraca wrote: »

They're wind speeds at 5000ft or so.

Guess I won't be taking the microlight out of the garage then on Friday....;)

Bicycle · 11-12-2011 6:46pm

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

If the Christmas Eve 1997 storm had happened on a random day in January, it would be mostly forgotten about by now, I suspect. It was bad, but with the exception of the Cork area, it was not extraordinarily bad. It seems to have become something of a legend.

It was pretty bad in Limerick City. It blew up out of nowhere. Suddenly there was debris flying about the city, including the roof of one of the georgian buildings on O'Connell Street.

There were a number of lives lost. RIP.

If it had happened on a random day in January, I think it would have been much worse. As it was people were heading home at the time when it struck. Things were winding down.

dsmythy · 11-12-2011 6:50pm

Come on guys, you know the deal. This will cross us much weaker or be dying to head north if it's as deep as forecast.

maw368 · 11-12-2011 6:52pm

force eleven wrote: »

Guess I won't be taking the microlight out of the garage then on Friday....;)

Not unless you mind landing somewhere in eastern Europe

Conrach · 11-12-2011 6:54pm

I'll never forget the Boxing Day storm of '98. Driving home from work and huge oak tree crashed down on the road about 10 feet from the car. The car bounced twice with the impact. I still don't know how my colleague hit the brake so fast.
Got home to find my sisters family gathering had moved to my house because I had an open fire, therefore heat.
I will never forget the hangover the next day either.

gbee · 11-12-2011 6:58pm

leahyl wrote: »

Remember it well - I was in a Chirch in Cork City (being my devout self!) and I remember a few windows were blown in behind the altar and the branch of a tree sticking through! And the wind, my god the wind - unbelievable!

That wasn't the Blizzard was it? If so it struck as 13:30 and shut down my Santa in Douglas Village as part of the roof came off allowing ingress of copious water that destroyed Santa's Hut.

The wind was never seen before, and rarely outside the Arctic no one on this forum, even those from our storm alley north west have ever experienced this condition, it remains [AFAIK] a unique event to have effected Cork City and nearby environs only.

maw368 · 11-12-2011 6:59pm

I'm liking the old storm stories, sounds like a cosy time that brings people together. I can't really remember much significant weather events in my time; apart from the odd occassion I've gone seeking them in the mountains, but always alone and have no one to share the moments with.

I do hope we get some significant weather, preferably cold and snow but some serious winds would be fun too, Obviously I hope no harm comes to anyone

hawkwing · 11-12-2011 7:06pm

Mullaghteelin wrote: »

If the Christmas Eve 1997 storm had happened on a random day in January, it would be mostly forgotten about by now, I suspect. It was bad, but with the exception of the Cork area, it was not extraordinarily bad. It seems to have become something of a legend.

South Tipp got an awful hammering from that and was the worst i remember.In the early evening for 2-3 hours it was the only time i was ever worried about the wind in 38yrs.The amount of tress knocked and bent all in the same direction was unbelievable.Honestly thought the car were going to turn over and tried to park as best to avoid it.Felt worse than "hurricane" Charlie windwise.
Didn't matter a damn that it was Christmas Eve or if you were in Cork as 75miles northeast from Cork City in South Tipp it was horrendous,sometimes if you are not in an area when severe weather hits it may be best not to speculate what it was like for those who were..

nacho libre · 11-12-2011 7:08pm

I remember negotiating fallen trees and a couple of downed power lines to on my way to a pub on St Stephens day back then. There was no electricity in the pub. So we had pints by candlelight. A good night was had by all!

John.Icy · 11-12-2011 7:09pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Come on guys, you know the deal. This will cross us much weaker or be dying to head north if it's as deep as forecast.

But how do you know for sure?

Especially with what Deep Easterly was talking about the other night, with each subsequent low being more south than the last.

We can only comment on what the models are showing for next Friday. If there showing a major storm, affecting most of the country, then we'll disscus that. If it moves North, well grand then, it's a strong possibility. If it didn't move North, but that's what people are being told to expect, it could be a disaster, causing deaths to people who were told 'ah sure it'll move off North and be a normal day!'.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-12-2011 7:14pm

WolfeIRE · 11-12-2011 7:17pm

EDIT: Thanks JS. Sorry

Yes, 12z ECM has a flabby LP system tracking close to our NW and then tracking NW over northern Scotland

dsmythy · 11-12-2011 7:19pm

John.Icy wrote: »

But how do you know for sure?

Especially with what Deep Easterly was talking about the other night, with each subsequent low being more south than the last.

We can only comment on what the models are showing for next Friday. If there showing a major storm, affecting most of the country, then we'll disscus that. If it moves North, well grand then, it's a strong possibility. If it didn't move North, but that's what people are being told to expect, it could be a disaster, causing deaths to people who were told 'ah sure it'll move off North and be a normal day!'.

I don't know for sure but I've seen too many wind events be downgraded closer to the time. Nevertheless I have tentatively told a few people that Thursday night into Friday might not be the best time to persue certain activities. Only if the models show this on their Wednesday night runs will I be convinced on it's severity. The problem with the general public would be a 'boy who cried wolf' attitude to warnings thanks to tabloids in the main.

ninebeanrows · 11-12-2011 7:20pm

ECM not keen on developing storm2!!!!

ECM1-96.GIF?11-0

JanuarySnowstor · 11-12-2011 7:20pm

that's the ooz ECM irishwolfe

Reckless Abandonment · 11-12-2011 7:22pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

ECM, very similar to GFS. Centre about 40-50km further north of GEFS projection (Donegal Bay)

That,s the ooz Wolf, 12z bins storm number 2

JanuarySnowstor · 11-12-2011 7:22pm

Hmmm not only does the ECM weaken Thursday's event it actually disappears lol

Iancar29 · 11-12-2011 7:23pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM not keen on developing storm2!!!!

Possible mistake and recaps on next run?

I remember seeing the same thing for the Carmen storm with one of the models last year. 2 days out and it didnt develop it at all on one of the runs then showed up again on the next

rc28 · 11-12-2011 7:24pm

So, as expected, the downgrades are taking place or is this just an outlier?

ninebeanrows · 11-12-2011 7:25pm

rc28 wrote: »

So, as expected, the downgrades are taking place or is this just an outlier?

we will see in the morning, or maybe have an indication when we see the Ensembles suite.

Redsunset · 11-12-2011 7:28pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM not keen on developing storm2!!!!

Harps · 11-12-2011 7:29pm

Very odd run there, every model run for the past 3 days shows an intense storm then suddenly it totally disappears. hard to believe they've been getting it that wrong all week?

ME still showing a major storm on the forecast just now as well..

Updrage for Tuesday's storm as well in the north west

dsmythy · 11-12-2011 7:29pm

ECM is such a buzzkill.

maquiladora · 11-12-2011 7:30pm

Will have to check ecm ensembles to see if the op has support, if it does then check the 0z gfs/ukmo to see if they move towards the ecm, if they do, then it may be the start of a big downgrade but its impossible to know yet.

Picking out one run of one model proves nothing until we see support from ensembles and the other major models.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 11-12-2011 7:33pm

It looks like the ECM may have had 1 too many Christmas tipples !

irish1967 · 11-12-2011 7:35pm

Ah well that's it then. Can we close the thread now ?

This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

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