This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

Ahorseofaman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am just gettting a map of Roscommon on that link?

I got Kerry/West Cork

ninebeanrows

The storm on the ECM which is associated with a really exceptionally strong jet would bring the potential for gusts to 90-100 knots in exposed northwestern areas.

Widespread gusts to 70knots perhaps upto 80knots.

maquiladora

12Z ECM does looks dangerous for the west/northwest. Thankfully it is still 100+ hours away and there is time for a downgrade/track shift.

bb1234567

will a lot of rain come with these high winds?as much rain as during the dublin floods in october?

Su Campu

We also need to keep an eye out for possible stingjet events in these systems, which can bring winds of 100 knots or more to the surface. Water vapour imagery tomorrow and Monday will give signs of any such development for Tuesday's system, which would occur near the central spiral.

M.T. Cranium

The second storm is a freak of nature, that's for certain ... I don't recall a time when all the models were showing a storm in this region at 120-144h with a sub-940 centre. It will be egg on face for meteorology in general if there's no such animal. Although the GFS and GEM are further north than the two major European models, there isn't a lot of difference for this time scale and I find the Euro models more credible given the large-scale set-up. The jet stream is not likely to rebound as quickly as the N American models are showing after the effects of the Tuesday storm which forces very cold air to circulate as far south as 48-50 N on Tuesday into Wednesday.

I may not see the 18z model run before the 00z run because I'm heading out now for the rest of the day (it's only 11:15 here).

ninebeanrows

Our two storms as per ECM.

ninebeanrows

A few disturbing ensembles for next Friday on the GFS.

But i note that a number go for a really slam on Tuesday too.

A really violent week ahead.

Deep Easterly

6hr'ly forecasts for midweek period for Malin Head as based on the raw ECMWF 12z operational output: (from yr.no)



Has Storm No.2 with higher windspeeds (Mean speeds 27m/s = 53kt / BF 10)
Caution with this one as has already been suggested. Tracking and intensity of the system continues to be very uncertain. Trend is good, specifics not so much so just yet. Nail-bitin' times ahead!

Iancar29

* GOES AND INVESTS INTO WINDPOWER *

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

METEOGROUP GFS for Friday and a MSL chart for Valenita to show record lows over past 70 years

maquiladora

Have a look at this. Clearly spelling out the risk to people well in advance. And this was even from before the 12Z runs.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16126512

Redsunset

Just looking at the first storm i feel it will track somewhat like the last one just gone but with a wider and slightly stronger wind field as shown below.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Have a look at this. Clearly spelling out the risk to people well in advance. And this was even from before the 12Z runs.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16126512

Had chills running down my back watching that! Not very often you see a forecast like that.

WolfeIRE

Analyses from Mark Vogan

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2011/12/todays-blog-post-will-be-available_10.html

gurramok

What are the likely temps in such a storm? Wouldn't mind it been mild as to cut the electric bill

km79

Most focus is on wind speeds for obvious reasons. What is the rainfall potential ?

Pangea

maquiladora wrote: »

Have a look at this. Clearly spelling out the risk to people well in advance. And this was even from before the 12Z runs.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16126512

Deep Easterly

Just for fun, looking at the BBC forecast vid Maq posted, the actual rainfall chart sequence Darren Brett is using showed the rain turning to snow over the northwest as the 2nd storm depression approaches:


Depends entirely on how quickly this system will occlude I think and of course, if the actual depression stays on course as the charts he is using suggest.

WolfeIRE

Water levels are already critical across parts of the west of Ireland and the next week could very well see between 50-60mm being added. Worrying times for those in flood prone areas and I hope local authorities, major emergency plans, and emergency services are fully prepared and equipped. The rainfall we have experienced in the past 2 weeks or so is not too dissimilar to what was experienced to the massive flooding of mid-November 2009. All we need for a repeat of this is one heavy pulse of rain affecting the River Shannon Basin or other river basins already experiencing high water levels.

Wind, though potentially destructive, is temporary while flooding can last for days and affect many more people. Fingers crossed neither scenario comes to pass. I am all for seeing interesting weather on the horizon but I think we need to be careful what we wish for.

cherryghost

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Water levels are already critical across parts of the west of Ireland and the next week could very well see between 50-60mm being added. Worrying times for those in flood prone areas and I hope local authorities, major emergency plans, and emergency services are fully prepared and equipped. The rainfall we have experienced in the past 2 weeks or so is not too dissimilar to what was experienced to the massive flooding of mid-November 2009. All we need for a repeat of this is one heavy pulse of rain affecting the River Shannon Basin or other river basins already experiencing high water levels.

Wind, though potentially destructive, is temporary while flooding can last for days and affect many more people. Fingers crossed neither scenario comes to pass. I am all for seeing interesting weather on the horizon but I think we need to be careful what we wish for.

This worries me the most. The current water level here near us is already exceptionally high. Another metre and its gone, both sides of the Shannon let alone my side.

km79

Enderman wrote: »

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Water levels are already critical across parts of the west of Ireland and the next week could very well see between 50-60mm being added. Worrying times for those in flood prone areas and I hope local authorities, major emergency plans, and emergency services are fully prepared and equipped. The rainfall we have experienced in the past 2 weeks or so is not too dissimilar to what was experienced to the massive flooding of mid-November 2009. All we need for a repeat of this is one heavy pulse of rain affecting the River Shannon Basin or other river basins already experiencing high water levels.

Wind, though potentially destructive, is temporary while flooding can last for days and affect many more people. Fingers crossed neither scenario comes to pass. I am all for seeing interesting weather on the horizon but I think we need to be careful what we wish for.

This worries me the most. The current water level here near us is already exceptionally high. Another metre and its gone, both sides of the Shannon let alone my side.

That's the reason I asked alright

Min

I hope for downgrades, it looks very bad.

I will never forget the Christmas eve storm and weatching a roof tear off a shed like it was a piece of newspaper in the wind. So the thought of some very powerful storm with winds from a general westerly direction is quite scary. On a hill that is very exposed to the SW, W and NW.

If these storms come off, it looks like widespread power cuts, electricity and telephone lines down, damage to buildings, downed trees and likely casualties.

It is very exciting watching out for the latest info on these storms, some really crazy stuff but potentially devastating.

maquiladora

Precipitation accum. for the next 192 hours ranges from 15mm to 117mm.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=192&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Deep Easterly

EMHI 18z projection for Monday evening:



Fairly long-fetch zone of gales developing on the southern flank of the low.

sunbabe08

should we be getting scared now??:( i like the wind and the rain, but not that much wind and rain.

Sierra Oscar

Should be interesting what Met Eireanns latest take on things is, weather forecast due up shortly . . .

riggerman

/:D .I have a huge feeling that this week will be a repeat of Christmas week 97/98 (not sure of which year ) . First Storm came on Christmas eve and second one around 5 days later . No power in my part of west Cork for 4 days , and 3 neighbours cooking their Turkey out of our gas oven . I'm usually on the Winter2011/2012 thread , but have given up on heavy snow this year.Roll on the Twins this week .I need extreme weather :eek: does anyone have a update on the top speeds and would they surpass the Christmas storm's 97/98

maquiladora

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Should be interesting what Met Eireanns latest take on things is, weather forecast due up shortly . . .

That animation of the movement of the lows looked kinda....complex.

ninebeanrows

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Should be interesting what Met Eireanns latest take on things is, weather forecast due up shortly . . .

Gerry understate Murphy is on!