Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

legomaniac · 13-01-2015 1:28pm

I think I'll go down and see Frank. I might bring him up from his place as he is on the coast here in South Donegal and it could get rough tomorrow. I am taking no chances. Securing stuff around the garden and the farm. Will nip to shops later for extra supplies in case electricity goes.

murdig · 13-01-2015 2:19pm

Should we be expecting a big hit in North Kerry?

chris2007 · 13-01-2015 2:57pm

Anything expected for the greater Dublin Region today?

Volvoair · 13-01-2015 3:06pm

Villain wrote: »

Related Weather Warning details as at 10:18 13/1/15 for record

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Wexford, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Southerly winds of mean speeds of 65 to 80 km/h with gusts of 110 to 130 km/h will develop on Wednesday afternoon and will continue through the night, when they will veer west to southwest. Strongest winds will be along the coast. Winds will start to ease off later on Thursday morning.
Issued:
Tuesday 13 January 2015 09:00
Valid:
Wednesday 14 January 2015 12:00 to Thursday 15 January 2015 12:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon and Tipperary

Southerly winds of mean speeds of 50 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 to 110 km/h will develop on Wednesday afternoon and will continue through the night, when they will veer west to southwest. Winds will start to ease off later on Thursday morning.
Issued:
Tuesday 13 January 2015 09:00
Valid:
Wednesday 14 January 2015 12:00 to Thursday 15 January 2015 12:00

55kmh = 34 miles per hour.
90kmh =55 miles per hour.

these winds are nothing special......why the big fuss?

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2015 3:12pm

The ICON maps woulld be a slight upgrade also, lowest pressure 937 mbs but gradient wind just slightly stronger than average of GFS/GEM.

Two strongest perturbations of GEFS appear to be 4 and 17, the latter would be a level 3 event for certain with a central pressure that falls to 928 mbs. I notice that this one runs a bit slower than most, peaking the winds around 0700h Thursday in the northwest.

Looking at the actual storm's recent evolution, it has deepened by 20 mbs overnight and is now about 996 mb east of Newfoundland. Oil platform winds in the Hibernian field peaked at 53 knots recently at this early stage of development (can be compared to the Kinsale energy platform for exposure and to Galway Bay for position relative to storm track). Bear in mind that this storm has about 50 mb at least to deepen now to arrival.

The 12z model runs will have the benefit of 12z upper air data and the degree of phasing that has actually taken place between surface low and the diving upper low which is expected to phase by tomorrow. At this point, would be prepared to go about 10 knots in either direction from earlier forecasts as there is still quite a spread in guidance and having said that there were two very strong GEFS variants (out of 20) there are also two or three that represent non-severe level one outcomes that barely crack 950 mbs.

Although we seem to be well placed in the level two range on current indications, I would ask those in the know to give an opinion around 1900h after the 12z model runs as to peak gust potential and level 2 or 3 for final approach. Level 3 if required would come with the regional breakdown of course, don't imagine that this can evolve into a country-wide level 3 but there is some potential for coastal areas to be near that. Would also mention that last winter's strongest storm did not produce very strong winds in Mayo or Donegal as it came inland over Galway. So anyone thinking back to last winter is going to need to factor in that only the southern half of the country saw the stronger winds from that event. In the north your strongest storm last winter would have been less intense by comparison and this one looks likely to equal or exceed your strongest event. That is not likely to be the case in west Munster, this one may rank more like top five by comparison.

Villain · 13-01-2015 3:28pm

Volvoair wrote: »

55kmh = 34 miles per hour.
90kmh =55 miles per hour.

these winds are nothing special......why the big fuss?

Well you picked the Yellow warning speeds, the Orange Warning has Gusts of up to 130kmh or 80mph which are unusual and severe.

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2015 4:25pm

Early indications from GME and RGEM are upgrades of about 5 kt or 10 km/hr from slightly deeper central pressures on same tracks. RGEM now phasing with 484 dm upper low. The 00z Thurs position is off the map grid but enclosed by at least 950, while GME very close to 940 mbs. RGEM also very aggressive with cold air advection behind storm towards west Munster for Thursday, would indicate strong snow potential inland.

munsterlegend · 13-01-2015 4:33pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Early indications from GME and RGEM are upgrades of about 5 kt or 10 km/hr from slightly deeper central pressures on same tracks. RGEM now phasing with 484 dm upper low. The 00z Thurs position is off the map grid but enclosed by at least 950, while GME very close to 940 mbs. RGEM also very aggressive with cold air advection behind storm towards west Munster for Thursday, would indicate strong snow potential inland.

Thanks MT for your updates. is the track staying mainly the same?

maquiladora · 13-01-2015 4:40pm

NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center

The E Atlantic is very active at this time, and the OPC 48-Hour surface forecast valid 0000 UTC 01/15 indicates another 943 hPa hurricane force low will develop to the NW of Ireland. The strongest core of winds associated with cold advection south of the low center is expected just off the coast at that time. In addition, the 48-Hour wind/wave forecast indicates seas will build to 13 meters (~43 ft)!

10429416_816004555124944_6249277518429040902_n.jpg?oh=56cabe979963b4bd700cb57afa051d9d&oe=552CB06E&__gda__=1429546975_b30b43cc81e22f530796d97ffd229cfd

10533372_816004651791601_7747197976411163597_n.jpg?oh=f0a7e5d063312f68fc4f4398208f1681&oe=5569AC62&__gda__=1432946260_b74c77a599f3d7167aa1afe9644129e6

Villain · 13-01-2015 4:42pm

Track has shifted slight East on 12z bringing an increase on Western Coasts.

Storm 10 · 13-01-2015 4:43pm

Hurricane Force :eek::eek: Never saw so many warnings on Met Eireann website

munsterlegend · 13-01-2015 4:50pm

Villain wrote: »

Track has shifted slight East on 12z bringing an increase on Western Coasts.

looks very similar to 06z from what I can see in terms of wind gusts.

maquiladora · 13-01-2015 4:52pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hurricane Force :eek::eek:

That would be out at sea.

ninebeanrows · 13-01-2015 4:53pm

GFS looks pretty severe, throws bent back occlusion through Ireland with widespread gusts again to 60kt.

Gusts in the northwest could reach 80kt

Villain · 13-01-2015 4:55pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

looks very similar to 06z from what I can see in terms of wind gusts.

I did say slight

munsterlegend · 13-01-2015 4:55pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS looks pretty severe, throws bent back occlusion through Ireland with widespread gusts again to 60kt.

Gusts in the northwest could reach 80kt

luckily tomorrow is not bin today where i reside. MT looks like he could be onto something about slight increase in intensity.

munsterlegend · 13-01-2015 5:01pm

Villain wrote: »

I did say slight

that you did!

Dubliner28 · 13-01-2015 5:05pm

Any idea for the weather for the weekend, friday-saturday afternoon.

Oscar Bravo · 13-01-2015 5:09pm

1552 wind warning update , remains orange

Oneiric 3 · 13-01-2015 5:12pm

Seems that there might be a small possibility of some snow falling in the NW (esp for high ground) just before the arrival of the warm front tomorrow. With temps rising both at the surface and above it won't last long if it does.

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2015 5:27pm

Anyone seeing the parallel run yet? No sign of it on meteociel or wetterzentrale.

Will be back on around 1800h in any case to discuss and try to set the most useful alert level given all evidence by 1900h. (breakfast time in Cranium-land).

Oneiric 3 · 13-01-2015 5:32pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Anyone seeing the parallel run yet? No sign of it on meteociel or wetterzentrale.

Seems fine on the Netweather site MT.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs-update-2014;sess=

Edit, maybe not, still showing 06z run.

maquiladora · 13-01-2015 5:35pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Anyone seeing the parallel run yet? No sign of it on meteociel or wetterzentrale.

Will be back on around 1800h in any case to discuss and try to set the most useful alert level given all evidence by 1900h. (breakfast time in Cranium-land).

06Z may have been the final parallel run if it's transitioning to the operational tomorrow.

AnotherYear · 13-01-2015 6:36pm

No access to charts atm. Red warning looking likely for the NW tomorrow?

irish1967 · 13-01-2015 6:46pm

It's certainly veering towards RED. The snow here in Donegal has distracted from the usual preparation for a storm. I'll hold off until 2100 before I put Facebook alerts out.

maquiladora · 13-01-2015 6:57pm

12Z EURO4 has sustained winds +100 km/h reaching the exposed western and northwestern coastline.

squarecircles · 13-01-2015 7:01pm

I live on an exposed coast in west mayo. I get the feeling this storm is leaning towards something somewhat more severe than usual.would I be right? damaging winds along the mayo coastline are looking probable??

fryup · 13-01-2015 7:05pm

iirc the day before last year's big storm we had snow showers ...so is this a reason to worry??

Xenji · 13-01-2015 7:06pm

fryup wrote: »

iirc the day before last year's big storm we had snow showers ...so is this a reason to worry??

You had snowfalls before "The Night Of The Big Wind" as well.

Pangea · 13-01-2015 7:12pm

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z EURO4 has sustained winds +100 km/h reaching the exposed western and northwestern coastline.

I am right in the red bit.

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2015 7:15pm

I would not be complacent, let's put it that way -- the most disturbing aspect I can find is the phasing of sub-490 dm upper low with sub-950 mb surface low after 48h of rapid development. The ECM does not go all in but perhaps it is not going to out-perform higher resolution models or even the GEM at this point. As for the GFS suspending the parallel run they have missed a golden opportunity to show what the new model can do in a critical situation, too bad for us I guess.

On balance I would say let's stay at level 2 but make it clear in the discussion that level 3 conditions could develop over parts of the west and northwest tomorrow night. I think we are fairly safe to assume level 2 is the max elsewhere at this point.

Would suggest peak gusts near 80 knots for exposed coasts north of Shannon estuary and 65 knots around Galway city, towns near Donegal Bay. South coast probably holding at 60-65 knot peak and this could come in the earlier phase. Thoughts? I will update boards forecast at 1915h, want to have a good look at the 18z map update and any 18z ship reports I can find, although I suspect from the earlier report that I won't find any really well placed as they have routed further south.

Sea surface temps are unusually cold in central Atlantic and the bombing low will be over waters only 6-8 C tonight. While that may suggest less energy, I think the phasing of the polar vortex feature will offset that and create a monster out there, definitely force 12 wind potential off the Mayo and Donegal coasts from about mid-day tomorrow. Best guess for central pressure as it passes Donegal Bay would be 942 mbs. About as intense a storm as we've seen in recent years. Within 10 mb of the reconstruction of the 1839 storm so figure on something like a 75% strength analogue of that historic event, with somewhat less inland penetration.

Misseskelly · 13-01-2015 7:21pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would not be complacent, let's put it that way -- the most disturbing aspect I can find is the phasing of sub-490 dm upper low with sub-950 mb surface low after 48h of rapid development. The ECM does not go all in but perhaps it is not going to out-perform higher resolution models or even the GEM at this point. As for the GFS suspending the parallel run they have missed a golden opportunity to show what the new model can do in a critical situation, too bad for us I guess.

On balance I would say let's stay at level 2 but make it clear in the discussion that level 3 conditions could develop over parts of the west and northwest tomorrow night. I think we are fairly safe to assume level 2 is the max elsewhere at this point.

Would suggest peak gusts near 80 knots for exposed coasts north of Shannon estuary and 65 knots around Galway city, towns near Donegal Bay. South coast probably holding at 60-65 knot peak and this could come in the earlier phase. Thoughts? I will update boards forecast at 1915h, want to have a good look at the 18z map update and any 18z ship reports I can find, although I suspect from the earlier report that I won't find any really well placed as they have routed further south.

Sea surface temps are unusually cold in central Atlantic and the bombing low will be over waters only 6-8 C tonight. While that may suggest less energy, I think the phasing of the polar vortex feature will offset that and create a monster out there, definitely force 12 wind potential off the Mayo and Donegal coasts from about mid-day tomorrow. Best guess for central pressure as it passes Donegal Bay would be 942 mbs. About as intense a storm as we've seen in recent years. Within 10 mb of the reconstruction of the 1839 storm so figure on something like a 75% strength analogue of that historic event, with somewhat less inland penetration.

Well considering on east coast last Friday morning we work up to the trampoline inside out with the bars bent & the roof in the windscreen of the car would be worried about this one coming in ... Like in comparison to last thurs night what are we talking of ? Please and thanks

airman737 · 13-01-2015 7:21pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hurricane Force :eek::eek: Never saw so many warnings on Met Eireann website

Me Neither!

redsky7 · 13-01-2015 7:37pm

I know no one has a crystal ball but is dublin going to get off relatively unscathed tomorrow? Will be queuing for a concert around 6pm and also out in it around 11pm too just wondering a rough idea how intense it's likely to be?

Xenji · 13-01-2015 8:00pm

Met Eireann not giving much away on the 18.55 forecast for tomorrow, besides the alerts and warnings they did not go into much detail of the day itself, will be interesting to see the report at 21.30, looks like they are waiting for something.

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2015 8:09pm

The GFS parallel did show up eventually -- the map is about the same intensity as before, a low just under 940 mb, it may have moved a touch north but continues to push strongest gradients across northern third of Ireland. The current map analysis shows 989 mb at 52N 38W. The deepening rate is about 10 mb last six hours. Pressure falls are approaching 10 mb per 3h, most intense rates would be 15-17.

Anyway, evidence is mixed at present, probably best to stay with current forecast and mention ongoing concern for a somewhat stronger end result.

W1ll1s · 13-01-2015 8:27pm

If it's not nailed down, now would be a good time to do it...

Tactical · 13-01-2015 8:49pm

W1ll1s wrote: »

If it's not nailed down, now would be a good time to do it...

At least wait until daylight.
1/. You'll see much better what you're doing.
2/. With morning update from M.T. along with the expert analysis from members you'll know what size nails to use.

Sorry, couldn't resist. Having a bit of down time before tomorrow

maquiladora · 13-01-2015 8:54pm

6pm analysis FAX

irishgeo · 13-01-2015 9:58pm

doesnt look that bad, which depression are we worried about?

maquiladora · 13-01-2015 10:04pm

irishgeo wrote: »

doesnt look that bad, which depression are we worried about?

_Whimsical_ · 13-01-2015 10:05pm

Don't forget the trusty live wind map everyone. For those of us who don't understand the more sophisticated maps here it can be useful, and it's fun too look at it too when there's a storm a'comin'.☺

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-13.06,44.76,441

Villain · 13-01-2015 10:14pm

The NMM 3km shows nasty gusts in Western ares thursday morning
gust_39.png?1421179091

dave1982 · 13-01-2015 10:19pm

just seen this on facebook

https://www.facebook.com/weatheralertireland?fref=nf

****SEVERE WEATHER WARNING****
AREA: NATIONWIDE.
HIGH RISK: MUNS / CONN / ULST / STH LEINS.
TIME: WEDNESDAY A/NOON TO THURSDAY AM.
A severe (RED) weather warning for coastal areas of the western seaboard tomorrow afternoon and evening/night. A less severe but very strong storm conditions elsewhere in Ireland.
Expect widespread disruption to power supply and delays and or cancellations to air, sea and rail travel.
We expect widespread damage throughout the W to NW of Ireland with hurricane force gusts of 140kmh plus with dangerous sustained wind speeds.
Coastal flooding is likely in the W & NW with amoderate risk of breaches on southern coasts of Munster and Sth Leinster.
Elsewhere coastal areas of South Munster, Leinster and east Ulster will see gusts reaching 110kmh to 130kmh mid to late afternoon onwards.
Some risk of localised flooding on the southwest and west tomorrow evening.
Please do not attempt to drive, walk along coastal drives, high ground and avoid forest walks etc.
High sided trucks etc should think twice before taking to the roads tomorrow, especially on roads in the western half of Ireland.
Leave bikes and motorbikes at home tomorrow
Non essential travel, commutes should be cancelled.
Call in upon those living alone and elderly neighbours if you can, and early tomorrow morning tie down any loose fittings around your property such as broken tree limbs, trampolines. wheelie bins etc.
We might update again later tonight if its required once the 18z model run updates.
CONFIDENCE IN DETAIL: 90% with a 10% chance for further upgrades and or downgrades.

squarecircles · 13-01-2015 10:27pm

Found this article on the impending storm....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/13/north-atlantic-bomb-cyclone-tracks-toward-ireland-u-k-threatens-hurricane-force-winds/

Villain · 13-01-2015 10:31pm

Well that was a poor forecast on RTE, apart from reading the warnings she didn't really give the storm any great attention

ninebeanrows · 13-01-2015 10:36pm

18z GFS looks even nastier, I think 80kt gusts at Belmullet are likely

gfs-0-30.png?18?18

ninebeanrows · 13-01-2015 10:37pm

Brings quite widespread gusts to 60/65kts in the wrap around the 18z

Northern Chaser · 13-01-2015 10:39pm

What sort of winds can I expect in central Ni

ninebeanrows · 13-01-2015 10:42pm

Even Greater Dublin region at risk of 65kt gusts as the low moves across on Thursday noon

Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

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