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Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

Kermit.de.frog

Latest guidance suggest sharp cyclogenesis or rapid deepening and tightening of the pressure gradient in transition off the west coast and the potential for storm gusts along with strong average wind speeds. It is still early to speculate numerically the actual speed that can be expected but certainly potentially damaging to structures. The west is most vulnerable but should it occur as progged it is a nationwide problem all be it to varying and dynamic extents.

Warnings will almost certainly be issued on Monday.

Keep up to date as this is a developing situation and strength and intensity are not nailed on just yet. The track has cross model agreement.

00z ECM is slightly less dramatic because it does not deepen the LP so much with damaging winds for the southwest but not as intense elsewhere - still an upgrade on the 12z.

ECM1-96.GIF?11-12

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Storm 10

Hurricane Force :eek::eek: Never saw so many warnings on Met Eireann website

munsterlegend

Villain wrote: »

Track has shifted slight East on 12z bringing an increase on Western Coasts.

looks very similar to 06z from what I can see in terms of wind gusts.

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hurricane Force :eek::eek:

That would be out at sea.

ninebeanrows

GFS looks pretty severe, throws bent back occlusion through Ireland with widespread gusts again to 60kt.

Gusts in the northwest could reach 80kt

Villain

munsterlegend wrote: »

looks very similar to 06z from what I can see in terms of wind gusts.

I did say slight

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS looks pretty severe, throws bent back occlusion through Ireland with widespread gusts again to 60kt.

Gusts in the northwest could reach 80kt

luckily tomorrow is not bin today where i reside. MT looks like he could be onto something about slight increase in intensity.

munsterlegend

Villain wrote: »

I did say slight

that you did!

Dubliner28

Any idea for the weather for the weekend, friday-saturday afternoon.

Oscar Bravo

1552 wind warning update , remains orange

Oneiric 3

Seems that there might be a small possibility of some snow falling in the NW (esp for high ground) just before the arrival of the warm front tomorrow. With temps rising both at the surface and above it won't last long if it does.

M.T. Cranium

Anyone seeing the parallel run yet? No sign of it on meteociel or wetterzentrale.

Will be back on around 1800h in any case to discuss and try to set the most useful alert level given all evidence by 1900h. (breakfast time in Cranium-land).

Oneiric 3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Anyone seeing the parallel run yet? No sign of it on meteociel or wetterzentrale.

Seems fine on the Netweather site MT.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs-update-2014;sess=

Edit, maybe not, still showing 06z run.

maquiladora

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Anyone seeing the parallel run yet? No sign of it on meteociel or wetterzentrale.

Will be back on around 1800h in any case to discuss and try to set the most useful alert level given all evidence by 1900h. (breakfast time in Cranium-land).

06Z may have been the final parallel run if it's transitioning to the operational tomorrow.

AnotherYear

No access to charts atm. Red warning looking likely for the NW tomorrow?

irish1967

It's certainly veering towards RED. The snow here in Donegal has distracted from the usual preparation for a storm. I'll hold off until 2100 before I put Facebook alerts out.

maquiladora

12Z EURO4 has sustained winds +100 km/h reaching the exposed western and northwestern coastline.

squarecircles

I live on an exposed coast in west mayo. I get the feeling this storm is leaning towards something somewhat more severe than usual.would I be right? damaging winds along the mayo coastline are looking probable??

fryup

iirc the day before last year's big storm we had snow showers ...so is this a reason to worry??

Xenji

fryup wrote: »

iirc the day before last year's big storm we had snow showers ...so is this a reason to worry??

You had snowfalls before "The Night Of The Big Wind" as well.

Pangea

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z EURO4 has sustained winds +100 km/h reaching the exposed western and northwestern coastline.

I am right in the red bit.

M.T. Cranium

I would not be complacent, let's put it that way -- the most disturbing aspect I can find is the phasing of sub-490 dm upper low with sub-950 mb surface low after 48h of rapid development. The ECM does not go all in but perhaps it is not going to out-perform higher resolution models or even the GEM at this point. As for the GFS suspending the parallel run they have missed a golden opportunity to show what the new model can do in a critical situation, too bad for us I guess.

On balance I would say let's stay at level 2 but make it clear in the discussion that level 3 conditions could develop over parts of the west and northwest tomorrow night. I think we are fairly safe to assume level 2 is the max elsewhere at this point.

Would suggest peak gusts near 80 knots for exposed coasts north of Shannon estuary and 65 knots around Galway city, towns near Donegal Bay. South coast probably holding at 60-65 knot peak and this could come in the earlier phase. Thoughts? I will update boards forecast at 1915h, want to have a good look at the 18z map update and any 18z ship reports I can find, although I suspect from the earlier report that I won't find any really well placed as they have routed further south.

Sea surface temps are unusually cold in central Atlantic and the bombing low will be over waters only 6-8 C tonight. While that may suggest less energy, I think the phasing of the polar vortex feature will offset that and create a monster out there, definitely force 12 wind potential off the Mayo and Donegal coasts from about mid-day tomorrow. Best guess for central pressure as it passes Donegal Bay would be 942 mbs. About as intense a storm as we've seen in recent years. Within 10 mb of the reconstruction of the 1839 storm so figure on something like a 75% strength analogue of that historic event, with somewhat less inland penetration.

Misseskelly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would not be complacent, let's put it that way -- the most disturbing aspect I can find is the phasing of sub-490 dm upper low with sub-950 mb surface low after 48h of rapid development. The ECM does not go all in but perhaps it is not going to out-perform higher resolution models or even the GEM at this point. As for the GFS suspending the parallel run they have missed a golden opportunity to show what the new model can do in a critical situation, too bad for us I guess.

On balance I would say let's stay at level 2 but make it clear in the discussion that level 3 conditions could develop over parts of the west and northwest tomorrow night. I think we are fairly safe to assume level 2 is the max elsewhere at this point.

Would suggest peak gusts near 80 knots for exposed coasts north of Shannon estuary and 65 knots around Galway city, towns near Donegal Bay. South coast probably holding at 60-65 knot peak and this could come in the earlier phase. Thoughts? I will update boards forecast at 1915h, want to have a good look at the 18z map update and any 18z ship reports I can find, although I suspect from the earlier report that I won't find any really well placed as they have routed further south.

Sea surface temps are unusually cold in central Atlantic and the bombing low will be over waters only 6-8 C tonight. While that may suggest less energy, I think the phasing of the polar vortex feature will offset that and create a monster out there, definitely force 12 wind potential off the Mayo and Donegal coasts from about mid-day tomorrow. Best guess for central pressure as it passes Donegal Bay would be 942 mbs. About as intense a storm as we've seen in recent years. Within 10 mb of the reconstruction of the 1839 storm so figure on something like a 75% strength analogue of that historic event, with somewhat less inland penetration.

Well considering on east coast last Friday morning we work up to the trampoline inside out with the bars bent & the roof in the windscreen of the car would be worried about this one coming in ... Like in comparison to last thurs night what are we talking of ? Please and thanks

airman737

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hurricane Force :eek::eek: Never saw so many warnings on Met Eireann website

Me Neither!

redsky7

I know no one has a crystal ball but is dublin going to get off relatively unscathed tomorrow? Will be queuing for a concert around 6pm and also out in it around 11pm too just wondering a rough idea how intense it's likely to be?

Xenji

Met Eireann not giving much away on the 18.55 forecast for tomorrow, besides the alerts and warnings they did not go into much detail of the day itself, will be interesting to see the report at 21.30, looks like they are waiting for something.

M.T. Cranium

The GFS parallel did show up eventually -- the map is about the same intensity as before, a low just under 940 mb, it may have moved a touch north but continues to push strongest gradients across northern third of Ireland. The current map analysis shows 989 mb at 52N 38W. The deepening rate is about 10 mb last six hours. Pressure falls are approaching 10 mb per 3h, most intense rates would be 15-17.

Anyway, evidence is mixed at present, probably best to stay with current forecast and mention ongoing concern for a somewhat stronger end result.

W1ll1s

If it's not nailed down, now would be a good time to do it...

Tactical

W1ll1s wrote: »

If it's not nailed down, now would be a good time to do it...

At least wait until daylight.
1/. You'll see much better what you're doing.
2/. With morning update from M.T. along with the expert analysis from members you'll know what size nails to use.

Sorry, couldn't resist. Having a bit of down time before tomorrow

maquiladora

6pm analysis FAX

irishgeo

doesnt look that bad, which depression are we worried about?