Strong Winds/Severe Gusts January 14/15th 2015

Kermit.de.frog

The parallel run is not much better unfortunately

EDIT: already posted by WC.

DOCARCH

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks very stormy for you guys!

You guys? Are you no longer one of us? Doesn't matter where you live (now).

maquiladora

GFSP is quite similar but squeezes the isobars tighter. This looks like Force 12 winds for the southwest coast here.



The big question now is....what will the ECM do?

ninebeanrows

DOCARCH wrote: »

You guys? Are you no longer one of us? Doesn't matter where you live (now).

Well the reason this storm is gonna hammer down on Dublin is because I am not there, otherwise it would be heading up the Channel to London

maquiladora

12Z GFS peaks just under 940mb.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

The big question now is....what will the ECM do?

We coolly await.

JanuarySnowstor

Looks weaker on the ukmo

ninebeanrows

UKM broadly similar, just has filled by its position east of Scotland at 96hrs

Kermit.de.frog

That's actually an "upgrade" on the 00z UKMO.

elecktras weather bomb

can some one post wind barb charts? off the gfs p please. cheers

downwiththatsor

Met Eireanns latest 16.38 update doesnt seem too severe for Wed night.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Kermit.de.frog

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

can some one post wind barb charts? off the gfs p please. cheers

M.T. Cranium

My suggestion would be to check the ECM and if the storm is set on there as well, give this thread a level 2 handle, and drop that other one to level 1 (which it might or might not warrant). Clearly this storm would even have level 3 potential if the GFS maps are right. That should be a call made by the usual suspects in a conference like we had before the 12 Feb storm, please in general do not post any unilateral level 3 advisories, I think we should put those to a vote of moderators and experienced posters. And they should only go up within 24 hours of any given event even if we have great confidence in the models at 36 hours. Right now I don't even feel 100% sure that any severe storm is coming since there has been a certain amount of ebb and flow in the guidance, but the GFS sometimes does very well with this kind of development and so it certainly seems at this stage that the chances are probably better than 50-50. I always figure that if the GFS looks almost exactly like the GEM then something is up.

maquiladora

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Met Eireanns latest 16.38 update doesnt seem too severe for Wed night.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

The outlook part of the forecast is only updated once a day usually, in the early morning. The next one will be based on the 12Z ECM. Met Eireann don't use the GFS.

Oneiric 3

Getting into the far reaches of Hi Res territory on the 12z DMI run.

Wednesday 00z:



Really only in its development stage by then so looks a little bit disorganized but seems to be more or less on track with the latest global model outputs.

Kermit.de.frog

My opinion is it is still >80hrs out and so no warning is really merited for now but if the North American models are consistent even without the ECM than a level 1 warning would be appropriate tomorrow just as an advisory and something to keep in mind.

Tactical

legomaniac wrote: »

I was out dosing some ewes. What did they say?

Baaaaaa?

On a more serious note, be prepared.

I note that some of the surfing websites are predicting heavy swell. For example Inch Beach in Co. Kerry is forecast at 19 foot.

So depending on the exact nature of the costal location one should consider tidal conditions if appropriate. So if the house gets battered by either a wave or debris then plan accordingly for conditions. Better safe than sorry.

Oneiric 3

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

can some one post wind barb charts? off the gfs p please. cheers

I am not sure if wind barb charts are available for the GFSP EWB, but others may have links.

Edit: sorry, Maq has already posted such.

downonthefarm

But ken said it would be snowing this week :-(

M.T. Cranium

GEM has the storm pretty much like GFS, not quite as deep but same track and timing (952 mb at 00z Thursday). Those GFS maps would probably produce maximum gusts over 80 knots at exposed locations and 50-60 inland. There would be widespread damage from them. Better hope they are a touch overdone as is sometimes the case with GFS guidance at this range. The UK and GEM maps would be a little easier on the country in general, could say maybe 75 knots at exposed locations and 45-55 inland. Just enough of a difference to make quite a difference in the impact on trees and structures.

maquiladora

The GEFS ensemble mean is down to 955mb now.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

The GEFS ensemble mean is down to 955mb now.

How does it compare with earlier runs Maq in terms of positioning?

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

How does it compare with earlier runs Maq in terms of positioning?

I can't recall the position, I don't think there is an archive for the GEFS. But it is 5mb deeper.

Kermit.de.frog

The positioning is surprisingly consistent at this range with the UKMO a bit on the progressive side - the depth is the real differential in terms of impact. Both could still change radically between now and then though. The GEFS and UKMO are both in upgrade territory today against their 00z runs.

Nabber

Oneiric 3

Looking at the latest prognoses regarding development & track of this storm low, it reminds me a little of one particular storm that hit in January 1990.



This brought some powerful gusts to southern areas esp.

maquiladora

There doesn't seem to be much of a change on the 12Z ECM from the 0Z. Doesn't seem to have moved any closer to the GFS. Further south than the GFS at 72 hours, and at 96 hours there's a significant difference between the GFS/GFSP and the ECM.

There could still be a short period of strong winds between 72-96 hours but we'll have to wait to see the 3-hour steps for that.

Harps

ECMWF, 960hPa low with 50-60kts winds on the west coast and sustained gale force right into the midlands. Not as severe as the GFS runs but still packing a punch

legomaniac

Tactical wrote: »

Baaaaaa?

On a more serious note, be prepared.

I note that some of the surfing websites are predicting heavy swell. For example Inch Beach in Co. Kerry is forecast at 19 foot.

So depending on the exact nature of the costal location one should consider tidal conditions if appropriate. So if the house gets battered by either a wave or debris then plan accordingly for conditions. Better safe than sorry.

Baaaaaa.... love it!! I will keep an eye on things alright... I got the impression that Jean was holding back a little on this evening's forecast... not wanting to cause to much stress or worry at this stage.... and quite rightly so

maquiladora

Yeah, 12Z ECM is stormy, but not as severe as the GFS.



Still a few days to go, so it could upgrade a bit. But I think a GFS downgrade is more likely.