Tokyo 2020 Qualifying. Athletes to watch

RayCun · 14-03-2019 5:21pm

youngrun · 18-03-2019 12:08pm

spc78 wrote: »

under the new rules Irish athletes will qualify via the rankings rather than the standard. given the the national championships are worth 45/35/30 ranking points, wouldn't Irelands best chance of sending 3 athletes to the games be to make the national championships a different race, say a 4 lap flat course so that the athletes could set a fast time AND get the ranking points? A German who wins their own national championships in Berlin will end up higher up the rankings than an irish person winning their own NC.

An athletes best chance of qualifying is to maximise their ranking points over 2 races by placing 1,2 or 3rd in their national championships and running a second fast race, bonus points if they can place top 12 at a gold label or top at a Silver label marathon - thats not easy to do and other athletes will have the same idea - find a gold or silver race thats fast and doesn't have a deep field.....it'll get a bump in entries in the qualifying window if 10 athletes all have the same idea! But it remains that athletes who's national championships marathon is held on a fast course have an advantage over athletes whose NC is on a 'slower' course - e.g Dublin.

Yes agreed unless there is a real outlier like maybe Fionnuala in Ladies with a good shot at the time.
I had a quick look at rankings and reckon Clohisey would get into the top 80. Hes at 448 now, but there are over 370 struck out as their countries hit the maximum 3 mark eg Kenya has 191 at or ahead of Mick, only 3 can go. Scullion not far off.

Thats assuming a max field of 80 - Why so low???- and only 3 going per country regardless of the fact they can have multiples who hit the standards or WC finish standards.

Needs to be up in lights though, assume AI will have their finger on the pulse.

KSU · 18-03-2019 1:02pm

youngrun wrote: »

Yes agreed unless there is a real outlier like maybe Fionnuala in Ladies with a good shot at the time.
I had a quick look at rankings and reckon Clohisey would get into the top 80. Hes at 448 now, but there are over 370 struck out as their countries hit the maximum 3 mark eg Kenya has 191 at or ahead of Mick, only 3 can go. Scullion not far off.

Thats assuming a max field of 80 - Why so low???- and only 3 going per country regardless of the fact they can have multiples who hit the standards or WC finish standards.

Needs to be up in lights though, assume AI will have their finger on the pulse.

Fionnuala running Boston so a top 10 would be a option also.

Field size is low because Athletics quota has been reduced in the Olympics to 1900 across all events. IOC dictates number of entrants across all sports. IAAF then distribute this across all events male and female

Lazare · 28-04-2019 10:57am

Mick Clohisey on target for 2:12

Itziger · 28-04-2019 11:27am

Lazare wrote: »

Mick Clohisey on target for 2:12

Through the Half in 1.06.34

Lazare · 17-10-2019 8:48pm

What does Scullion need to do at DCM?

He's obv not gonna run 2:11:30 at Dublin.

Is it a national champs win or nothing?

Assuming he does win NC, what does that do for him?

Singer · 17-10-2019 9:11pm

Lazare wrote: »

What does Scullion need to do at DCM?

He's obv not gonna run 2:11:30 at Dublin.

Is it a national champs win or nothing?

Assuming he does win NC, what does that do for him?

https://www.fastrunning.com/fast-10/2019/stephen-scullion/trying-to-make-sense-of-the-toyko-2020-marathon-qualification/24258

Not sure how much of this analysis is still current.

OOnegative · 17-10-2019 9:22pm

Singer wrote: »

https://www.fastrunning.com/fast-10/2019/stephen-scullion/trying-to-make-sense-of-the-toyko-2020-marathon-qualification/24258

Not sure how much of this analysis is still current.

To quote the man himself, F*ck that’s complicated stuff!!

Lazare · 17-10-2019 9:37pm

So it's a national champs win and a big showing at Heuston and he'll still have to cross his fingers. Jaysus

KSU · 18-10-2019 9:26am

Lazare wrote: »

So it's a national champs win and a big showing at Heuston and he'll still have to cross his fingers. Jaysus

Gonna need about a 2.12.30-2.12 at the very least looking at the rankings currently

18-10-2019 9:46am

Apparently the marathons and race-walking events will be moved to Sapporo (800km from Tokyo): https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/oct/16/tokyo-olympics-marathon-switched-north-sapporo-cooler-climate-athletics

Lazare · 18-10-2019 8:56pm

KSU wrote: »

Gonna need about a 2.12.30-2.12 at the very least looking at the rankings currently

I think that's in him if conditions (Heuston) are favourable. He had some hamstring issues and took a wrong turn last time out.

Lazare · 18-10-2019 8:59pm

Hindsight 20/20 and all but he really should have targeted Berlin.

His focus is Tokyo, Doha was an error I think. Berlin would have given him a better stab at Dublin too.

KSU · 18-10-2019 9:21pm

Lazare wrote: »

I think that's in him if conditions (Heuston) are favourable. He had some hamstring issues and took a wrong turn last time out.

Sorry I meant that kinda performance in Dublin.as it stands last qualifier Barrios has had two performances in this range

KSU · 18-10-2019 9:23pm

Lazare wrote: »

Hindsight 20/20 and all but he really should have targeted Berlin.

His focus is Tokyo, Doha was an error I think. Berlin would have given him a better stab at Dublin too.

Think he figured top 10 the more viable option in Doha given the conditions and possible drop outs etc than trying to bank auto q on a faster course

Top 25 at worlds also opens a lot of doors in terms of gold label event invites which benefits both financially and opening up options

OOnegative · 18-10-2019 9:26pm

KSU wrote: »

Think he figured top 10 the more viable option in Doha given the conditions

If he thought this then he’s off his rocker, sorry.

KSU · 18-10-2019 9:31pm

OOnegative wrote: »

If he thought this then he’s off his rocker, sorry.

What I mean by this is that the unpredictability with extreme conditions cans favour slower runners ala Boston last year etc. The high probability of DNF s with people being too aggressive means higher chance of an auto qualifier than a 2.11 performance especially after missing good chunk of training this year. Leaving it to rankings would mean he needs another big performance so auto q probably needed in his case

OOnegative · 18-10-2019 9:38pm

KSU wrote: »

What I mean by this is that the unpredictability with extreme conditions cans favour slower runners ala Boston last year etc. The high probability of DNF s with people being too aggressive means higher chance of an auto qualifier than a 2.11 performance especially after missing good chunk of training this year. Leaving it to rankings would mean he needs another big performance so auto q probably needed in his case

73 men started in Doha, 18 DNF. There wasn’t a chance he was going to make a top 10 that way, regardless of the attritional conditions. I also think he shouldn’t have ran Doha, but who is going to turn down the chance to represent there nation at a WC.

Lazare · 18-10-2019 9:51pm

KSU wrote: »

Sorry I meant that kinda performance in Dublin.as it stands last qualifier Barrios has had two performances in this range

Thought I read a 2:14:xx with a NC win was as good as.

KSU · 18-10-2019 10:15pm

Lazare wrote: »

Thought I read a 2:14:xx with a NC win was as good as.

Based of current rankings I would say wouldn’t be enough to get him moved up Far enough to be honest and even if it was would be at the mercy of the next 6 months where anyone could push him out of a spot

KSU · 18-10-2019 10:19pm

OOnegative wrote: »

73 men started in Doha, 18 DNF. There wasn’t a chance he was going to make a top 10 that way, regardless of the attritional conditions. I also think he shouldn’t have ran Doha, but who is going to turn down the chance to represent there nation at a WC.

In hindsight yes but all talk before Doha was that conditions would be worse even when you look at the women’s over 40% of field DNFed it was probably a calculated risk that didn’t come off.

Realistically it was his best chance I think but ultimately it was gonna be a very outside shot no matter what

Drifter50 · 18-10-2019 10:31pm

A shout out to the Mens Hockey team in Vancouver for the next 2 weeks. They have to beat Canada twice to qualify for Tokyo over 2 legs

Be good to get there after Rio

Chivito550 · 19-10-2019 12:07am

OOnegative wrote: »

73 men started in Doha, 18 DNF. There wasn’t a chance he was going to make a top 10 that way, regardless of the attritional conditions. I also think he shouldn’t have ran Doha, but who is going to turn down the chance to represent there nation at a WC.

Mens marathon actually had decent conditions. The humidity broke that night after every evening before that being horrific. The temperature was still 29 but it felt sooo much cooler that night than previous nights. The men's winning time compared to the women's winning time and the walk times says it all.

Chivito550 · 19-10-2019 12:11am

Lazare wrote: »

Hindsight 20/20 and all but he really should have targeted Berlin.

His focus is Tokyo, Doha was an error I think. Berlin would have given him a better stab at Dublin too.

It's not so easy to turn down an Irish vest to be fair.

He could have skipped Doha and still likely miss Tokyo.

Take the Irish vests as they come I reckon.

jamule · 27-10-2019 11:59am

Chivito550 wrote: »

It's not so easy to turn down an Irish vest to be fair.

He could have skipped Doha and still likely miss Tokyo.

Take the Irish vests as they come I reckon.

perfect training for dublin ðŸ˜

Lazare · 27-10-2019 12:05pm

2:12:01 for Scullion, national champs win and 2nd overall.

Wow. Just wow.

ultrapercy · 27-10-2019 1:16pm

Lazare wrote: »

2:12:01 for Scullion, national champs win and 2nd overall.

Wow. Just wow.

23 year old Hugh Armstring with what must be one of the fastest Irish debuts in 2.14.22. Big future ahead for him. The rise in standard in of Irish men and women in Dublin continues to rise. In the mid noughties a mid 2.23 was enough for 1st Irish man. I was 5th Irish in 05 with a 2.35 top 5 today inside 2.16.Time through all the the categories rising too. Great credit due to Dublin Marathon and Marathon Mission.

Dodge · 27-10-2019 1:20pm

Scullion 5th on the Irish all time list. Clohissey has gone top 10 too

On the women’s side Aoife Cooke is now 5th and Ann Marie Glynn is now 7th on the all time list. With Fionnuala McCormack a few weeks ago, 3 of the top 7 times ever by Irish women within the space of a month

MY BAD · 27-10-2019 7:02pm

ultrapercy wrote: »

23 year old Hugh Armstring with what must be one of the fastest Irish debuts in 2.14.22. Big future ahead for him. The rise in standard in of Irish men and women in Dublin continues to rise. In the mid noughties a mid 2.23 was enough for 1st Irish man. I was 5th Irish in 05 with a 2.35 top 5 today inside 2.16.Time through all the the categories rising too. Great credit due to Dublin Marathon and Marathon Mission.

I hear he has a great coach

Limpy · 27-10-2019 10:41pm

Dodge wrote: »

Scullion 5th on the Irish all time list. Clohissey has gone top 10 too

On the women’s side Aoife Cooke is now 5th and Ann Marie Glynn is now 7th on the all time list. With Fionnuala McCormack a few weeks ago, 3 of the top 7 times ever by Irish women within the space of a month

Vaporflys

Singer · 27-10-2019 11:06pm

Limpy wrote: »

Vaporflys

Scullion doesn't wear Nike.

curtisbrown · 27-10-2019 11:09pm

Blacks out his Nikes

Singer · 27-10-2019 11:39pm

I withdraw my comment

highgiant1985 · 27-10-2019 11:52pm

v controversial ending in the Irish Hockey game vs Canada with winner qualifying for the Olympics. Going to penalties now but Irish team had thought they'd won it in normal time only for a review after the final whistle for a foul.

highgiant1985 · 28-10-2019 12:00am

highgiant1985 wrote: »

v controversial ending in the Irish Hockey game vs Canada. Going to penalties now but Irish team had thought they'd won it in normal time only for a review after the final whistle for a foul.

Ireland were 3-1 up in the shoot out after 3 each but finished 3-3 after 5 penalties each so now its sudden death...

highgiant1985 · 28-10-2019 12:02am

highgiant1985 wrote: »

Ireland were 3-1 up in the shoot out after 3 each but finished 3-3 after 5 penalties each so now its sudden death...

Canada win 4-3 so they qualify for the Olympics and the Irish team are out. The Irish team won't be happy with the ref and his team.

blackcard · 28-10-2019 12:04am

highgiant1985 wrote: »

Canada win 4-3. The Irish team won't be happy with the ref and his team.

I thought it was absolutely shocking officiating

Ceepo · 28-10-2019 1:35am

ultrapercy wrote: »

23 year old Hugh Armstring with what must be one of the fastest Irish debuts in 2.14.22. Big future ahead for him. The rise in standard in of Irish men and women in Dublin continues to rise. In the mid noughties a mid 2.23 was enough for 1st Irish man. I was 5th Irish in 05 with a 2.35 top 5 today inside 2.16.Time through all the the categories rising too. Great credit due to Dublin Marathon and Marathon Mission.

Agree you you here. Its great to see the standard improve.
12th guy o/40 today ran 2.35..

AuldManKing · 28-10-2019 10:55pm

curtisbrown wrote: »

Blacks out his Nikes

you know - I was originally disappointed with Scullion on his shoe choice, but then, thinking about it, I reckon most, if not all the top 10 wore Nike, so if UA don't have a good shoe (& Scullion was critical of his shoe type in Doha), then it evens things up for him.

Lazare · 28-10-2019 11:40pm

AuldManKing wrote: »

you know - I was originally disappointed with Scullion on his shoe choice, but then, thinking about it, I reckon most, if not all the top 10 wore Nike, so if UA don't have a good shoe (& Scullion was critical of his shoe type in Doha), then it evens things up for him.

You'd have to think they allow it anyway. The better he performs the better for them. I don't ever think of UA when thinking of shoes. Did love that singlet though.

AhhHere · 19-01-2020 3:02pm

Scullion running Houston right now. Aiming for 2:11:30 to qualify fo Tokyo. Knows the course after running here last year (and taking a wrong turn at 1 point). The weather is much milder than last year and this a flat course compared to Dublin.

I think he'll do it.

Stream> https://abc13.com/watch/23374/

AhhHere · 19-01-2020 3:11pm

Through halfway at: 1:05.48

Exactly on pace

KSU · 19-01-2020 3:11pm

AhhHere wrote: »

Scullion running Houston right now. Aiming for 2:11:30 to qualify fo Tokyo. Knows the course after running here last year (and taking a wrong turn at 1 point). The weather is much milder than last year and this a flat course compared to Dublin.

I think he'll do it.

Stream> https://abc13.com/watch/23374/

Half way in 1.05.48. Gonna be a big ask to negative split judging by how pace has gone so far

RedB · 19-01-2020 3:15pm

KSU wrote: »

Half way in 1.05.48. Gonna be a big ask to negative split judging by how pace has gone so far

No better buachaill

#animal

AhhHere · 19-01-2020 3:25pm

Scullion in 9th place!

+3.29 off first. By the times, he's a min a head and behind the nearest men.

AhhHere · 19-01-2020 3:40pm

AhhHere wrote: »

Scullion in 9th place!

+3.29 off first. By the times, he's a min a head and behind the nearest men.

7th now. One pacer definetly dropped out. Assumed another one did too.

Itziger · 19-01-2020 3:57pm

4 mins behind leaders at km 35, What are the predicted finishing times??

tbukela · 19-01-2020 4:01pm

Itziger wrote: »

4 mins behind leaders at km 35, What are the predicted finishing times??

Scullion predicted at 2:12:03 at the last split, he's gaining on 6th and well ahead of 8th.
Seems to be holding his pace well

Itziger · 19-01-2020 4:08pm

Up to 5th at 3.19 from leader.

tbukela · 19-01-2020 4:08pm

Through 40k in 2:05:23, slowing slightly. Predicted finish slipping towards 2:12:30 ISH.
Hopefully he can finish strong.

Tokyo 2020 Qualifying. Athletes to watch

Comments