Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

circadian · 22-01-2019 4:39pm

Coming down thick and heavy in Derry.

Loughc · 22-01-2019 4:40pm

circadian wrote: »

Coming down thick and heavy in Derry.

And what's the weather like? :pac:

SleetAndSnow · 22-01-2019 4:42pm

Car reading 7 degrees in cork city, it feels colder though. Showery all day. Meh

Captain Snow · 22-01-2019 4:42pm

circadian wrote: »

Coming down thick and heavy in Derry.

Any pictures...

Rebelbrowser · 22-01-2019 4:45pm

Dakotabigone wrote: »

Great to see you out of prison Kermit.

In the same way that death was a great career move by Elvis, I think Kermit getting banned for the month of January (of all months) has raised his stock to an all time high. If I were you Kermit I wouldn't do anything to damage your stock - like actually forecasting anything for example! Like Marilyn Monroe, I'm not sure you can now compete with Kermit the legend...:pac:

Artane2002 · 22-01-2019 4:49pm

Breathtaking evening in Dublin 5. Nice and chilly too. Not often have I said positive things about this winter so far.

Gonzo · 22-01-2019 4:52pm

The next potential cold spell, is also being hinted at with the temperature anomaly from the 28th of January to the 3rd of February. So far the temperature anomaly haven't really being accurate over the past few weeks as the easterly failed to get going.

Ireland, Scotland and parts of Scandinavia look particularly cold with a 3-6C lower than average temperature.

meTz20190121_0000+33600.png

The precipitation anomaly for the same period shows dryer than average conditions where it is also coldest. This could suggest closer to high pressure with a lack of overall precipitation. Notice the wetter than average conditions along North Sea coasts and Irish Sea coasts.

meRz20190121_0000+33600.png

sryanbruen · 22-01-2019 4:53pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Breathtaking evening in Dublin 5. Nice and chilly too. Not often have I said positive things about this winter so far.

You took the words right out of my mouth!

Oscar Bravo · 22-01-2019 4:58pm

Good few lightning strikes south of Derry .

Gonzo · 22-01-2019 5:03pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Good few lightning strikes south of Derry .

looks to be a very decent snow streamer all the way from Derry to Belfast, lucky them.

circadian · 22-01-2019 5:11pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

Any pictures...

Here ye go

SleetAndSnow · 22-01-2019 5:13pm

Im living in the wrong county.. definitely.. maybe wrong country

jArgHA · 22-01-2019 5:28pm

Lads / ladies what site do ye use again for live preciptation radar which shows the pink colouring for possible snow? I remember using one all the time last Feb/March but can't recall which site it was..

gabeeg · 22-01-2019 5:34pm

jArgHA wrote: »

Lads / ladies what site do ye use again for live preciptation radar which shows the pink colouring for possible snow? I remember using one all the time last Feb/March but can't recall which site it was..

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Turn the "weather type" on

Kermit.de.frog · 22-01-2019 6:50pm

UK Met Office and GFS out so far this evening and setting things up nicely. The important timeframe is going to be between the 28th and 31st of January.

UKMO

UW144-21.GIF?22-18

GFS a little delayed but same overall trend.

GFS

gfseu-0-168.png?12

That low pressure just east of Greenland is a so called trigger low for cold weather as it moves southeast because it drags in the deeper cold behind it.

Even at that stage that's a cold northwesterly wind that there would be a real bite to.

We can see decent cross model alignment already so confidence pretty high.

KingJeremy · 22-01-2019 6:51pm

gabeeg wrote: »

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Turn the "weather type" on

Is this info live and accurate or is it a prediction?

gabeeg · 22-01-2019 7:08pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Is this info live and accurate or is it a prediction?

Live. It uses radar.

It's pretty accurate, but not perfect

United road · 22-01-2019 7:09pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Met Office and GFS out so far this evening and setting things up nicely. The important timeframe is going to be between the 28th and 31st of January.

UKMO

GFS a little delayed but same overall trend.

GFS

That low pressure just east of Greenland is a so called trigger low for cold weather as it moves southeast because it drags in the deeper cold behind it.

Even at that stage that's a cold northwesterly wind that there would be a real bite to.

We can see decent cross model alignment already so confidence pretty high.

Oh my - how you have been missed!!

gerrybhoy · 22-01-2019 7:11pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Met Office and GFS out so far this evening and setting things up nicely. The important timeframe is going to be between the 28th and 31st of January.

UKMO

GFS a little delayed but same overall trend.

GFS

That low pressure just east of Greenland is a so called trigger low for cold weather as it moves southeast because it drags in the deeper cold behind it.

Even at that stage that's a cold northwesterly wind that there would be a real bite to.

We can see decent cross model alignment already so confidence pretty high.

I love you x

Oneiric 3 · 22-01-2019 7:30pm

Posted on TWO yesterday. Says it all about the UK Met Long Range forecasts his Winter...

"And the "Stopped Clock Award" for 2019 goes to.....

December 14: Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

December 18: Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds.

December 21: Then, further into January, most probably becoming colder and drier than normal, with an increased likelihood of easterly winds.

December 24: By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period.

December 31: By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 3: Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 7: As the rest of the month progresses and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather to become established generally, which will bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 9: During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold conditions being established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frost, especially in the north.

January 13: For the end of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK, with temperatures continuing a downward trend to become cold or very cold.

January 21: As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds.

"You've got to give them credit for persistence. However many times the weather proves them wrong they are not giving up."

nacho libre · 22-01-2019 7:42pm

To be fair the ECM46 and Met Office have been doing the same for a while now.

By the way it started snowing here 30 minutes ago, and its sticking!!

Oneiric 3 · 22-01-2019 7:49pm

nacho libre wrote: »

To be fair the ECM46 and Met Office have been doing the same for a while now.

By the way it started snowing here 30 minutes ago, and its sticking!!

Are you back home in that dump, otherwise known as Mayo?

:p

sdanseo · 22-01-2019 7:57pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Posted on TWO yesterday. Says it all about the UK Met Long Range forecasts his Winter...

"And the "Stopped Clock Award" for 2019 goes to.....

December 14: Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

December 18: Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds.

December 21: Then, further into January, most probably becoming colder and drier than normal, with an increased likelihood of easterly winds.

December 24: By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period.

December 31: By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 3: Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 7: As the rest of the month progresses and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather to become established generally, which will bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow.

January 9: During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold conditions being established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frost, especially in the north.

January 13: For the end of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK, with temperatures continuing a downward trend to become cold or very cold.

January 21: As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds.

"You've got to give them credit for persistence. However many times the weather proves them wrong they are not giving up."

That is a very long winded way of saying that they forecast cold in the later part of January and it now appears that they are forecasting deeper cold to come in early February instead. Just because they updated the forecast weekly doesn't mean they got it wrong ten times.

Meanwhile, it's mid-January and 1 degree outside and snowing (from a westerly no less) in much of the UK and in Northern Ireland. I had to scrape ice off my car twice today, in coastal Dublin.

Edit: toned down a little. My original rant quoted below if you want to see what humour a 12 hour work day puts you in

Kermit - welcome back. Frog shaped snow angels are in my forecast. Don't get banned again or we'll tell Miss Piggy all your secrets.

Snow Garden · 22-01-2019 7:59pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Met Office and GFS out so far this evening and setting things up nicely. The important timeframe is going to be between the 28th and 31st of January.

That low pressure just east of Greenland is a so called trigger low for cold weather as it moves southeast because it drags in the deeper cold behind it.

Even at that stage that's a cold northwesterly wind that there would be a real bite to.

We can see decent cross model alignment already so confidence pretty high.

He is the One.

m17 · 22-01-2019 8:17pm

Carndonagh donegal 22/01/19

Calibos · 22-01-2019 8:19pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Couldn't agree more with Gonzo.

Variations on a theme but the direction of travel is toward a colder pattern by the end of the month. Between now and then it's a slack north Atlantic regime with a couple of colder northerly incursions (occasional wintry showers) and some cold and frosty nights.

Trigger for a real change looks to be between the 28th and 30th of January when the models see increased distortion and amplification of the jet stream (which is refreshing consistency after recent months) so we may see momentum across the Atlantic lost and Low pressure finally taking a dive southeast introducing colder conditions from the north or northeast.

This could be the out-workings of the effects of down-welling through the layers of the atmosphere from the recent stratospheric warming event at the pole registering with the models though it's impossible to say it is or isn't.

So yeah, changes imminent, it's more a case of "how cold?"...could be relatively benign or exceptional.

We shall wait and see.

YanSno · 22-01-2019 9:07pm

Predicted cold spell around the 31st Jan - 5th Feb will be max 2-3 days. I could be a messy affair to start with sleet, snow and back to sleet. The jet stream will re organise very quickly and it will be back to normal. Taking other factors into consideration chances of a blocking is minimal for the next 2 - 3 weeks. Chances of snow around the first few days of February is very high but i don't think there will anything too extreme

esposito · 22-01-2019 9:20pm

YanSno wrote: »

Predicted cold spell around the 31st Jan - 5th Feb will be max 2-3 days. I could be a messy affair to start with sleet, snow and back to sleet. The jet stream will re organise very quickly and it will be back to normal. Taking other factors into consideration chances of a blocking is minimal for the next 2 - 3 weeks. Chances of snow around the first few days of February is very high but i don't think there will anything too extreme

You seem very sure about a quick return to milder/zonal weather after first week of
Feb.... be interesting to see if you’re proved right or wrong. I very much hope it’s the latter.

pistolpetes11 · 22-01-2019 9:23pm

YanSno wrote: »

Predicted cold spell around the 31st Jan - 5th Feb will be max 2-3 days. I could be a messy affair to start with sleet, snow and back to sleet. The jet stream will re organise very quickly and it will be back to normal. Taking other factors into consideration chances of a blocking is minimal for the next 2 - 3 weeks. Chances of snow around the first few days of February is very high but i don't think there will anything too extreme

I moved this from the FI thread as there was no charts or models included but would love to hear the other factors that have come into consideration for chances of blocking to be minimal ?

Seemed everything else that was being posted was pointing towards it being in place ?

Ultimate Seduction · 22-01-2019 9:25pm

People getting exited again about day 10 in the FI thread...

sdanseo · 22-01-2019 9:27pm

Almost didn't see this - first TSSN aerodrome forcecast of the season for Derry, 1800-2200 tonight

TEMPO 2218/2222 0800 SHSN TSSN BKN004

Thundersnow!

Monkeynut · 22-01-2019 9:38pm

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

People getting exited again about day 10 in the FI thread...

It's just like alcohol the next day.
"I'm never drinking again."

Come that evening,
"Who's round is it?"

YanSno · 22-01-2019 9:39pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I moved this from the FI thread as there was no charts or models included but would love to hear the other factors that have come into consideration for chances of blocking to be minimal ?

Seemed everything else that was being posted was pointing towards it being in place ?

The Artic sea ice surface extent hasn't fully recovered and it's currently lowest since 1981 that will tend to have an influence in where HP will be located which is corresponding with NAO. Signals earlier for a blocking slowly diminished as there hasn't been any tropospheric response.

Ultimate Seduction · 22-01-2019 9:46pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

It's just like alcohol the next day.
"I'm never drinking again."

Come that evening,
"Who's round is it?"

They then tell the barman that they've no money but are almost sure they'll win the lotto in 2 weeks time

Artane2002 · 22-01-2019 9:54pm

It snowed in London according to my friend. It's still dry here in Dublin 5.

Gaoth Laidir · 22-01-2019 10:50pm

sdanseo wrote: »

That is a very long winded and slightly unfair way of saying that they forecast cold in the later part of January and it now appears that they are forecasting deeper cold to come in early February instead. Just because they updated the forecast weekly doesn't mean they got it wrong ten times.

Meanwhile, it's mid-January and 1 degree outside and snowing (from a westerly no less) in much of the UK and in Northern Ireland.

I had to scrape ice off my car twice today, in coastal Dublin.

Not sure what particular brand of wine you want them to divine the melted snow into. They acted on the guidance and the vast majority of us on here did the same.
.

I think that's very unfair. It was long-winded to highlight the broken record almost word-for-word copy and paste forecast that was being repeated every few days. And it was totally wrong in every case. No mention of the prolonged mild spell at all, just the usual hope casting that people want to see. It's along the lines of Daily Express journalism.

Villain · 22-01-2019 11:00pm

I hate Northwesterly for my location, not even the very highest point of Carlow can see decent snow.

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1087800890780803073?s=21

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2019 11:01pm

ECMWF ENS have shifted back towards protracted cold spell this evening....Nothing severe cold but big changes.

Next 48 hours of NWP watch will be very interesting.

Time to get that rollercoaster ticket out from the bin

irishrover99 · 22-01-2019 11:23pm

Villain wrote: »

I hate Northwesterly for my location, not even the very highest point of Carlow can see decent snow.

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1087800890780803073?s=21

That’s strange.This morning i cycled up to the viewing point in Rathfarnham just at the start of the military road (397 ASL)and the ice was just about forming but I could see the top at about 500m had a good dusting so I can imagine Kippure had proper snow and that is lower than Mt Leinster.
I took this selfie for reference.

Rebelbrowser · 22-01-2019 11:59pm

Hard to see how it could possibly go wrong from here.ðŸ˜‚

Snowbiee21 · 23-01-2019 12:01am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Hard to see how it could possibly go wrong from here.ðŸ˜‚

Very very easily actually ... lol

Snowbiee21 · 23-01-2019 12:15am

United road wrote: »

And to think, some poster said yesterday that Kermit cant make it snow!!

Was said to me. I believe he is wrong

jArgHA · 23-01-2019 12:15am

I love this thread, a bit of an emotional rollercoaster alright but what fun .. *buys 5 more tickets*

kittyn · 23-01-2019 12:17am

I’m gonna start praying from now ........

sdanseo · 23-01-2019 12:24am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think that's very unfair. It was long-winded to highlight the broken record almost word-for-word copy and paste forecast that was being repeated every few days. And it was totally wrong in every case. No mention of the prolonged mild spell at all, just the usual hope casting that people want to see. It's along the lines of Daily Express journalism.

I will agree with you here, the water divining comment was a little smartarsey. I'll edit that out. Apologies Oneric.

My point was simply that although there appeared to be 10 updates in fact the cold was really only pushed back by 3 weeks or so. Although, as I just posted in the FI thread, it is correct to say the models have been doing the same.

pad199207 · 23-01-2019 1:05am

Light flurry of Snow here in Kildare. My first snowflakes of the season

Monkeynut · 23-01-2019 1:07am

Them FI charts are looking so tasty.

BTW just my opinion, lamppost watching is different with the new led street lights.

JCX BXC · 23-01-2019 1:08am

An unprecedented -4c now at Belfast Aldergrove, likely due to snow fields and clear skies.

nacho libre · 23-01-2019 1:16am

YanSno wrote: »

. Signals earlier for a blocking slowly diminished as there hasn't been any tropospheric response.

The tropospheric response, if there is any at all, will hit the first week of February. The Gefs suite seems to be backing your call, but they are often progressive with the pv being back in charge.
My hunch is we will get a northerly followed by a brief north easterly during the first week of February, then it's back to a zonal setup- cold alternating with milder interludes.

Gaoth Laidir · 23-01-2019 8:36am

JCX BXC wrote: »

An unprecedented -4c now at Belfast Aldergrove, likely due to snow fields and clear skies.

Strange, the overnight low quoted on this morning's 06Z synop was -3.4 °C (grass min -9), yet the 05:20Z metar reported a temperature of -5. I seem to remember something like this before, so they must use a different sensor for metars, probably locater near the runway.

No snow depth was reported on any synops yesterday or overnight but a "covering" was reported in a snowtam yesterday evening. The latest snowtam one from 03:13 this morning showed two thirds of the runway cleared, final third with a patchy 25% covering of wet snow.

SWEG0003 EGAA 01230313
(SNOWTAM 0003
A) EGAA

01230313 C) 07 F) 5/5/5 G) 1/1/1
T) RWY 25 FIRST TWO THIRDS CLEAR AND WET
RWY 25 FINAL THIRD 25 PERCENT WET SNOW
TREATMENT ONGOING, H)AVAILABLE FROM ATC)
CREATED: 23 Jan 2019 03:25:00
SOURCE: EUECYIYN

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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