Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Mortelaro · 17-01-2019 8:17pm

That ECM tonight taps into the coldest Baltic Scandinavian air possible,it's more northeast than east and similar to Jan 1987,it would plaster upon top of plaster the east of leinster with snow which would eventually be lying on top of frozen rivers were it to verify

pad199207 · 17-01-2019 8:17pm

YanSno wrote: »

Can you please elaborate on what you mean by epic for other posters because all i see is its just a normal dry and sunny cold winter day

Which Day?

circadian · 17-01-2019 8:20pm

NMB wrote: »

I must be the only on who’s enjoying the model watching it’s been super exciting. Soap opera models - crazy forecasts and outputs then all hopes dashed and then a new episode on the next days run. The signals for cold are there but the result and wish goalposts keep moving.

Thing is the trend is cold and it’s only a matter of when not if that we get proper snow.

It has been said many times over the last few weeks we’ll get a few bites of the cherry and then the whole pavlova- have faith the game is just half time - still all to play for !

I agree, I'm not one for model watching but this has been great to see all the drama. I'm usually just checking in on the daily forecasts from our man in the Interior.

Marengo · 17-01-2019 8:21pm

YanSno wrote: »

Can you please elaborate on what you mean by epic for other posters because all i see is its just a normal dry and sunny cold winter day

A nice easterly. Snow potential this day week. Hints of Scandinavia high developing day 8/9. Pressure a little high at this stage for snow but cold. -10 and -11 uppers hitting eastern side of the country. Rare enough. Day 10 hints at Atlantic return. But that’s a long way off.

An excellent run. It’s only a computer graphic generation but that’s all we ever have when looking ahead

No copious amounts of snow but get cold in first.

I’m a happy man:)

YanSno · 17-01-2019 8:22pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Which Day?

Friday 25th ECM, 1025hp too close to Ireland

m17 · 17-01-2019 8:24pm

Ballina co mayo 17/01/19 11.35 temperature 3°C

Mortelaro · 17-01-2019 8:27pm

Cloudy here in Arklow,yet the temp is near freezing at 0.6c
Dewpoint -1,8c

Mortelaro · 17-01-2019 8:29pm

YanSno wrote: »

Friday 25th ECM, 1025hp too close to Ireland

It can rain or snow at 1030mb but I'd agree you'd want it lower

pad199207 · 17-01-2019 8:30pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

It can rain or snow at 1030mb but I'd agree you'd want it lower

The ideal would be 1015mb and lower

Marengo · 17-01-2019 8:30pm

Some upland areas above 800ft asl could have a snow covering tomorrow morning.

Remember a similar type event mid January 1988. When snow was to turn to rain but didn’t.

Mortelaro · 17-01-2019 8:33pm

pad199207 wrote: »

The ideal would be 1015mb and lower

It's not that far off tbh!
1019 in wexford

nacho libre · 17-01-2019 8:44pm

Marengo wrote: »

A nice easterly. Snow potential this day week. Hints of Scandinavia high developing day 8/9. Pressure a little high at this stage for snow but cold. -10 and -11 uppers hitting eastern side of the country. Rare enough. Day 10 hints at Atlantic return. But that’s a long way off.

If we can keep the Genoa low it may not get back in really. Bascially if we see low heights in the north med it's always a good sign for an easterly.

pad199207 · 17-01-2019 8:53pm

giveitholly · 17-01-2019 8:56pm

I know this isn't the right thread to be posting this in but it is the busiest!! just wondering what would be the best website to keep an eye on the weather in barcelona,need to keep a watch on it over the next few weeks

MajesticDonkey · 17-01-2019 9:12pm

I'm heading to Malaga on Thursday for a long weekend, anyone have any idea what it'll be like there?

pad199207 · 17-01-2019 9:13pm

MajesticDonkey wrote: »

I'm heading to Malaga on Thursday for a long weekend, anyone have any idea what it'll be like there?

We’re going through the most volatile period in winter weather watching history and yee come in here wanting to know what the weather is in Spain?

:p

Marengo · 17-01-2019 9:14pm

MajesticDonkey wrote: »

I'm heading to Malaga on Thursday for a long weekend, anyone have any idea what it'll be like there?

I’d say pack your thermals

Gonzo · 17-01-2019 9:17pm

MajesticDonkey wrote: »

I'm heading to Malaga on Thursday for a long weekend, anyone have any idea what it'll be like there?

Weather should be nice on Thursday and Friday with sunny spells and temperatures around 15C.

The weekend looks unsettled with showers or rain at times, temperatures around 16C.

sideswipe · 17-01-2019 9:17pm

Just caught up with this thread- going for a lie down now!!

KingdomRushed · 17-01-2019 9:26pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

That ECM tonight taps into the coldest Baltic Scandinavian air possible,it's more northeast than east and similar to Jan 1987,it would plaster upon top of plaster the east of leinster with snow which would eventually be lying on top of frozen rivers were it to verify

This is ridiculous hyperbole. Tonight’s ECM would not bring anything of the sort! It’s a few days of an easterly with highish pressure to boot reducing snow shower potential. Hopefully people coming here for common sense takes won’t be taking talk of ‘frozen rivers’ seriously.

MajesticDonkey · 17-01-2019 9:27pm

pad199207 wrote: »

We’re going through the most volatile period in winter weather watching history and yee come in here wanting to know what the weather is in Spain?:p

My sincere apologies! :pac: :pac:

Just looking to see if I can get some heat into me before coming back to the snow and the inevitable cold and flu that'll come with it

patneve2 · 17-01-2019 9:48pm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

This is ridiculous hyperbole. Tonight’s ECM would not bring anything of the sort! It’s a few days of an easterly with highish pressure to boot reducing snow shower potential. Hopefully people coming here for common sense takes won’t be taking talk of ‘frozen rivers’ seriously.

Have to agree. With high enough pressure and poor thicknesses we'd be lucky to get light to moderate graupel showers if tonight's ECM came to fruition. All conjecture at this stage but its ridiculous to compare tonight's run with the ridiculously cold and snowy set up that came about in 87.

Artane2002 · 17-01-2019 9:54pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Have to agree. With high enough pressure and poor thicknesses we'd be lucky to get light to moderate graupel showers if tonight's ECM came to fruition. All conjecture at this stage but its ridiculous to compare tonight's run with the ridiculously cold and snowy set up that came about in 87.

The thicknesses could be better but they will probably suffice, especially when you take into account other factors, like how cold the uppers are and the warm SSTs.

Ultimate Seduction · 17-01-2019 10:05pm

"We're watching history"

"Lying snow on frozen rivers"

MINI ICE AGE ON THE WAY!

TEMPERATURE SET TO PLUMMET TO LOWEST ON RECORD AS RIVERS FREEZE OVER.

4068ac1elhodqr · 17-01-2019 10:05pm

Pity the thundersnow isn't arriving Sunday (likely Tues-Wed instead?),
would have been ace with Sundays 'Super Blood Red Wolf Moon' bouncing off the whiteout.

sryanbruen · 17-01-2019 10:06pm

ECM had bitterly cold 850hPa temperatures but similarities to January 1987, I don't see the reflection at all. The low is too far south and pressure is too high.

4068ac1elhodqr · 17-01-2019 10:09pm

Celine Faithful Worm wrote: »

Pity the thundersnow isn't arriving Sunday (likely Tues-Wed instead?),
would have been ace with Sundays 'Super Blood Red Wolf Moon' bouncing off the whiteout.

Just read the eclipse starts at 3.33am Monday GMT followed by the maximum eclipse at 5.12am, so might still get some red-white scenery via the frost.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 17-01-2019 10:10pm

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

"We're watching history"

"Lying snow on frozen rivers"

MINI ICE AGE ON THE WAY!

TEMPERATURE SET TO PLUMMET TO LOWEST ON RECORD AS RIVERS FREEZE OVER.

After hours is that way >

nacho libre · 17-01-2019 10:11pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM had bitterly cold uppers but similarities to January 1987, I don't see the reflection at all.

Not in terms of snow potential, but the depth of cold waiting to the north east is kind of similar,but whether we ever tap into that going into February is another matter. I do think there will be a bit of snow around, if tonight's ECM comes to fruition.

Marengo · 17-01-2019 10:13pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM had bitterly cold uppers but similarities to January 1987, I don't see the reflection at all.

Agree. When I said epic earlier I meant in the context of this year, the possibility for ice days and the possibility for snow on 24th.

1987 brought -16 uppers, and air from deep Siberia at the heart of winter 11-14 Jan. And much lower air pressure.

Now there’s nothing to say if a cold spell does arrive next week it won’t evolve into something better. The ECM was very positive for cold, after the mess of the GFS 12Z.

It’s a bit like sport, you’re only as good as your last match.. we’re only as good as the last model run!

sdanseo · 17-01-2019 10:21pm

Had to leave the office for a few minutes today and wander around the warehouse looking for oversized freight.
Spent maybe 5 to 10 minutes outside with a 4 layers on and can officially report it's bloody cold.

Slightly more technical, my car is accurate as compared to Dublin airport, and read 0.5C at 8.30 this morning right by the sea.
1.5C a few minutes ago coming home.
Plenty cold for sleet and snow at high levels tonight. Wicklow mountains should be white in the morning.

As posted in the technical thread, this would give a snow-followed-by-cold-rain mess to low levels in the midlands and west as well.

Mortelaro · 17-01-2019 10:24pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM had bitterly cold 850hPa temperatures but similarities to January 1987, I don't see the reflection at all. The low is too far south and pressure is too high.

Source air and cold is pretty similar,
Jan 1987 wasn't one day though,it was over a week with a feature moving in at the end
The chart I was commenting on was one day in FI
There was one day in FI in 1987 too if we had the facility to chart watch back then (we didnt)
As it's all FI,anything could be the reality in a fortnight,certainly a shallow low would drop that 1019 down to 1010 at quite short notice or something coming in from the Baltics at short notice
All the while feeding in freezing air should you continue feeding it from that direction
1019 mb would allow for showers albeit light
That's the longer version of my opinion on that run,if you see my thinking now?
I was not saying that's what will happen
I'm waiting untill Sunday to confirm in my mind if winter is coming

SleetAndSnow · 17-01-2019 10:25pm

About 2/3 degrees here in Cork City currently. Feels like winter alright. Fire blaring for the 3rd time this winter only and its beautiful!

YanSno · 17-01-2019 10:25pm

Marengo wrote: »

Agree. When I said epic earlier I meant in the context of this year, the possibility for ice days and the possibility for snow on 24th.

1987 brought -16 uppers, and air from deep Siberia at the heart of winter 11-14 Jan. And much lower air pressure.

Now there’s nothing to say if a cold spell does arrive next week it won’t evolve into something better. The ECM was very positive for cold, after the mess of the GFS 12Z.

It’s a bit like sport, you’re only as good as your last match.. we’re only as good as the last model run!

Well you will be saying epic until March

Marengo · 17-01-2019 10:28pm

YanSno wrote: »

Well you will be saying epic until March

Maybe I will

It’s quite easy to criticize with one liners. I’ve outlined in 2 detailed posts why I made the comment.

I remember 1979, 1982, 1987 etc and studied 1933, 1947, 1963 so I don’t appreciate being talked down to.

hoody · 17-01-2019 10:41pm

Light sleet / snow shower in Loughrea just now.

YanSno · 17-01-2019 10:42pm

Marengo wrote: »

Maybe I will

It’s quite easy to criticize with one liners. I’ve outlined in 2 detailed posts why I made the comment.

I remember 1979, 1982, 1987 etc and studied 1933, 1947, 1963 so I don’t appreciate being talked down to.

I didn't mean to down talk or anything . Fair enough so what are you basing your research on. By saying epic other people might think and react differently. There nothing out of the ordinary for the next 10 days. Just zonal Atlantic back to business with colder intervals

sryanbruen · 17-01-2019 10:44pm

YanSno wrote: »

I didn't mean to down talk or anything . Fair enough so what are you basing your research on. By saying epic other people might think and react differently. There nothing out of the ordinary for the next 10 days. Just zonal Atlantic back to business with colder intervals

Whether out of the ordinary or not, it's very different to this Winter so far so there'll be relativity involved.

YanSno · 17-01-2019 10:49pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Whether out of the ordinary or not, it's very different to this Winter so far so there'll be relativity involved.

Yes exactly we had dry couple of weeks so now we are going to play catch up with wet and windy weather

Ultimate Seduction · 17-01-2019 10:50pm

A lot of people use this forum alone for their forecasts. Saying things like lying snow on frozen rivers is ridiculous really. Could easily set panic into farmers an elderly. Or as I implied, a tabloid reporter reads this thread and you'll see the headlines tomorrow. Theres no evidence anywhere for what you suggest, and even if there was, its so far out its to be ignored.

Marengo · 17-01-2019 10:51pm

YanSno wrote: »

I didn't mean to down talk or anything . Fair enough so what are you basing your research on. By saying epic other people might think and react differently. There nothing out of the ordinary for the next 10 days. Just zonal Atlantic back to business with colder intervals

In the context of a mild 12GFS it promises cold with uppers of -10/-11C. Possible snow next Thursday. Hints of a Scandi High.

I shouldn’t have to explain myself to you, or anyone else, for using the word epic.

Epic for this year. Not 47, 63, 87. But all those years had to start somewhere. 47 had a particularly late start

Now would you kindly go away and pick on someone else who uses a word you dislike. I’m not Met Eireann and doubt i’m Influencing thousands like Villain, Sryan, MT, Gaoth Laidir and other excellent forecasters.

Enthusiastic amateurs are allowed comment on a public forum.

Marengo · 17-01-2019 10:53pm

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

A lot of people use this forum alone for their forecasts. Saying things like lying snow on frozen rivers is ridiculous really. Could easily set panic into farmers an elderly. Or as I implied, a tabloid reporter reads this thread and you'll see the headlines tomorrow. Theres no evidence anywhere for what you suggest, and even if there was, its so far out its to be ignored.

I never mentioned rivers freezing or anything like that.

Mortelaro · 17-01-2019 11:04pm

Marengo wrote: »

I never mentioned rivers freezing or anything like that.

That was me because the Avoca river in Arklow froze in Jan 87 and Dec 2010 with snow sitting on the ice and fleshed out my point in my last post again
I actually find it strange that such a scenario would be dismissed
All I was saying really is uppers in the source at -20c wouldn't have much bother if a northeasterly was sustained dragging sub -10 uppers into Ireland meaning ice days at this time of the year which would freeze rivers
It wasn't a forecast
Nothing in this thread is a forecast,it's commentary on charts and an explanation when I was prompted
That's all
Others can have different thoughts on what might happen

Marengo · 17-01-2019 11:07pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

That was me because the Avoca river in Arklow froze in Jan 87 and Dec 2010 with snow sitting on the ice and fleshed out my point in my last post again
I actually find it strange that such a scenario would be dismissed
All I was saying really is uppers in the source at -20c wouldn't have much bother if a northeasterly was sustained dragging sub -10 uppers into Ireland meaning ice days at this time of the year which would freeze rivers
It wasn't a forecast
Nothing in this thread is a forecast,it's commentary on charts and an explanation when I was prompted
That's all
Others can have different thoughts on what might happen

And you’re totally entitled to your opinion and always give your reasoning.

Rebelbrowser · 17-01-2019 11:13pm

The low level (680m) ski resort I'm going to in Austria on Sat week currently is forecasted to have a day time max that day of -15 falling to -26 at night. Colder at 2000m where we will be skiing presumably. Yikes....

Monkeynut · 17-01-2019 11:19pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

The low level (680m) ski resort I'm going to in Austria on Sat week currently is forecasted to have a day time max that day of -15 falling to -26 at night. Colder at 2000m where we will be skiing presumably. Yikes....

you are mad. i just wouldn't be able to board the plane. fair play to you.

Villain · 17-01-2019 11:20pm

The pub run deserves a toast

Mortelaro · 17-01-2019 11:26pm

Villain wrote: »

The pub run deserves a toast

Snow lying on freezing pints out in the smoking area ?

kittyn · 17-01-2019 11:28pm

Villain wrote: »

The pub run deserves a toast

What a run from the GFS 😱🥶🥶

SleetAndSnow · 17-01-2019 11:30pm

the uppers just keep getting better and better o.O . This is a totally different run the 12z, so hard to trust!

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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