Property Market 2018

CalRobert · 03-04-2018 10:51am

Bob24 wrote: »

Sorry to say it so directly, but this is an extremely short sighted view of the situation.

1) If lending rules were to be relaxed as you describe, that house you could buy with a 300k mortgage today would shot up in value and require a 450+k mortgage within a few months/years due to everyone in the country having a higher budget. So it wouldn’t help people on that income bracket buying such properties, it would just make the purchases more expensive for people on higher brackets (forcing them to take up larger mortgages based on the relaxed rules).

2) It is all nice and easy now to complain that rules are too restrictive and should be relaxed. But if they were to be relaxed this would most certainly inflate the bubble which is starting to emmerge while increasing some households debt to unsustainable levels, and eventually cause the same crash and stories of negative equity / defaults we’ve have since 2008. And then? People who had been campagning for relaxation will quickly change tune and blame the government and the central bank for allowing a repeat of the mess. That is a big NO for me.

No need to be sorry! We actually agree. There's a logic to the policy but it's still frustrating.

I think the core of this stupidity is that apparently nobody here has the ability to build a house for the same price people manage to do it in (Germany/Japan/Name your country).

Also, the majority of the population are homeowners, meaning that a housing crisis is a good thing in the view of many voters. If you were underwater after paying too much in 2006 then all this talk of homes going for 70k over asking is probably fantastic. The government know this and as a result do nothing of any real value to address the issue (Help to Buy was a great way to increase the price of new homes by 20k, after all).

Regardless, though, it's a bit frustrating to know that the only hope of ever getting a home, _even if you could /easily/ make the mortgage payments_ is another economic catastrophe, because the thought of someone having a mortgage payment that's 40% of their take-home (and maybe having a place to live in retirement) is scarier to the folks in charge than the current situation of someone paying 70% of their take-home in rent and being able to feck off to Australia when they can't take it anymore.

Also the numbers I quoted weren't for myself. They're meant to be illustrative. As for myself I currently spend 36% of my net income on rent which isn't too bad, but the bank would approve a mortgage for around 30%, which turns out to make a pretty big difference.

CalRobert · 03-04-2018 10:58am

Cyrus wrote: »

classic case of wanting a change in a decent policy because it doesnt meet your needs.

the caps on mortgage lending are the only hope we have against run away property inflation again, which you have evidenced

Eh, the funny thing is that I'm not sure we even disagree. I think the problem, ultimately, is that homes are too expensive, there's not enough of them, and the ones we're building are godawful sprawling suburban hellscape in the middle of nowhere, so we're going to be blocked from making the city nicer (new Luas lines etc) by people who now are doomed to drive to the city for the rest of their days and will complain loudly about anything that affects subsidized motoring convenience.

Even so, it's frustrating. We could have a 1x multiple rule and I doubt it would make houses cheaper. It would just mean 100% cash buyers, most of them buying to let, and more people stuck renting forever when they really could afford to service the debt on a mortgage.

03-04-2018 10:58am

So anyone willing to stare into the future and predict what is going to happen to the property market ?

CalRobert · 03-04-2018 11:07am

6541 wrote: »

So anyone willing to stare into the future and predict what is going to happen to the property market ?

Sure -

Rising seas will swallow East wall and North Strand, and most areas near the Liffey. These people will be desperate for a bailout because after all they couldn't have known this will happen (despite decades of scientists screaming this is exactly what will happen). They get a massive buyout from the government because they're homeowners (or they were at least), so their vote actually matters. Homes more than 20 meters over sea level will fetch a premium.

Antibiotic resistance creates a new worldwide plague, forcing an island-wide quarantine. All shipping and air traffic are stopped on pain of death. Rural Ireland sees a resurgence of interest as a small plot of land that can feed your family without contacting other humans becomes a huge asset.

Climate change means that desperate winemakers from the now-parched south of France come to Ireland and snap up rural land so they can continue their craft, for a few decades at least, when the burgeoning Norwegian wine industry replaces our own.

On March 31 2019 the first yacht of emaciated, weak bankers wearing nothing but rags arrives from the East, signifying the start of a refugee crisis that will cause chaos and dysfunction and the eventual downfall of the FG government. Because they're bankers, they're directly provisioned with cash.

Or, you know, somebody builds a few flats in the middle of this European capital and 2 people on median incomes can actually afford to buy a home and still have a reasonable commute. (Obviously some fantasy in that one!!)

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 03-04-2018 11:13am

6541 wrote: »

So anyone willing to stare into the future and predict what is going to happen to the property market ?

I'll take a stab. Dublin to continue to flat line but not decline unless there is a major house building initiative. The current attempt doesn't count.

Immediate commuter counties to increase modestly this year before flat lining similar to Dublin. Peripheral commuting counties to increase rapidly this year and next as people are pushed further and further out. Traffic and commuting to become even worse than it is now.

Rent to continue steadily increasing, within rpz limits but will continue to increase. The supply/demand problem won't be solved in the next 3 to 4 years (or possibly ever) as it doesn't suit the government. Most voters are home owners, home owners like to see their asset increase in value.

I would also disagree that we're in a bubble. We don't have enough houses and people need to live somewhere. With Dublin in particular and all the new investment prices in the capital and surrounds will not be dropping any time soon, barring a major international event like a war or brexit going completely off the rails.

Or I could be totally wrong and that could all be total horse****. Who knows.

OwlsZat · 03-04-2018 11:51am

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

6541 wrote: »

Most voters are home owners, home owners like to see their asset increase in value.

Is this an Ireland only problem?

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 03-04-2018 11:52am

OwlsZat wrote: »

Is this an Ireland only problem?

Wouldn't know, I haven't lived anywhere else. The Irish so seem to have a strange relationship with property though.

draiochtanois · 03-04-2018 12:10pm

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Colonel Claptrap · 03-04-2018 12:36pm

If a house is worth 100k today but triples in price to 300k next year, it's not all that beneficial for the homeowner if it's their primary residence.

They can't sell at 300k and buy another house for 100k. Other houses in the area will also have tripppled in price.

They could benefit from reduced interest payments as their LTV falls, but this is neglible in the short term.

Rising house prices are not welcomed by most homeowners. They are however welcomed by landlords. It's important to distinguish the two.

Samuel T. Cogley · 03-04-2018 12:42pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

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Ireland rates fairly highly for quality of life and property isn't nearly as expensive as say the SE of England.

johnp001 · 03-04-2018 12:44pm

Colonel Claptrap wrote: »

If a house is worth 100k today but triples in price to 300k next year, it's not all that beneficial for the homeowner if it's their primary residence.

They can't sell at 300k and buy another house for 100k. Other houses in the are will also have tripppled in price.

They could benefit from reduced interest payments as their LTV falls, but this is neglible in the short term.

Rising house prices are not welcomed by most homeowners. They are however welcomed by landlords. It's important to distinguish the two.

Also if the house belongs to a family with children then tripling of house prices without corresponding dramatic increases in wage rates means that housing is going to be significantly less affordable for these children when they want to move out and set up their own home and family.

draiochtanois · 03-04-2018 5:40pm

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Samuel T. Cogley · 03-04-2018 5:42pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

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A friend of ours just bought a lovely 2 bed apartment in Amsterdam. 600K bargain.

Cyrus · 03-04-2018 5:42pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

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an amsterdam is cheaper than dublin?

i dont think so

https://www.ft.com/content/79dca9b4-c3b7-11e7-b30e-a7c1c7c13aab

draiochtanois · 03-04-2018 5:46pm

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draiochtanois · 03-04-2018 5:48pm

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draiochtanois · 03-04-2018 5:49pm

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Samuel T. Cogley · 03-04-2018 5:49pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

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No it's not! You can buy a two bed apartment in D8 for 300K and walk in under half an hour. Norway is the highest quality of life IIRC, whats a gaffe in Oslo gonna set me back?

Cyrus · 03-04-2018 5:52pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

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sorry disagree, dublin isnt as expensive as everyone wants to think it is.

what do you mean by quality?

sure there was some rubbish put up in the mid 2000s but thats not indicative of the entire housing stock!

CalRobert · 03-04-2018 11:14pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

No it's not! You can buy a two bed apartment in D8 for 300K and walk in under half an hour. Norway is the highest quality of life IIRC, whats a gaffe in Oslo gonna set me back?

I could buy a 2 bed in Amsterdam and not die while cycling to work too.

Samuel T. Cogley · 03-04-2018 11:17pm

CalRobert wrote: »

I could buy a 2 bed in Amsterdam and not die while cycling to work too.

People are on dutch bikes pootling along, not MAMILs whizzing along like eejits. If we could stamp out the latter in Ireland we could do what they do in Amsterdam and essentially share the pavement albeit with a divide.

Alternatively you could buy a 3 bed house and use the nice cycle track along the coast.

draiochtanois · 04-04-2018 9:36am

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OwlsZat · 04-04-2018 9:44am

draiochtanois wrote: »

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I think people will start to emigrate for better housing, commuting, quality of life rather than the historical reasons of finding a job or better pay.

That's certainly the conclusion I'm coming too.[/quote]

Can't help but agree. I think the grey voters have had it all to easy, while new labour entrants are saddled with the debt of their mistakes. I will also be immigrating rather than carry the financial noose of my predecessors. Sunshine and financial freedom await.

Cyrus · 04-04-2018 9:44am

draiochtanois wrote: »

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and so are parts of amsterdam,

the point is using amsterdam as an example of somewhere people will leave ireland to go and find the utopia of cheap housing close to work is a bad one.

Samuel T. Cogley · 04-04-2018 10:11am

draiochtanois wrote: »

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I've had more issues in D4 than D8

Bob24 · 04-04-2018 10:26am

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

I've had more issues in D4 than D8

I have no interest in getting into a postcode war, but while individual experiences can of course differ and each postcode has both good and bad areas; it is obvious that things like general safety level and cleanness of public space are on average quite a bit better in D4 than in D8. And all this reflects in property prices.

draiochtanois · 04-04-2018 10:35am

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Cyrus · 04-04-2018 11:10am

draiochtanois wrote: »

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i disagree that irish people will be moving in any significant numbers (incremental to those that already do because they work for a dutch, german or spanish multi national) to any of those cities.

House prices arent any cheaper in desirable locations especially compared to the wages on offer.

If Madrid is so amazing why are there so many spanish people in their 20s over here?

draiochtanois · 04-04-2018 11:14am

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Cyrus · 04-04-2018 11:24am

draiochtanois wrote: »

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You are flogging a dead horse, we aren't particularly multi lingual here either, and the 3 spanish people working for me at the moment are all university educated qualified or part qualified accountants that were fluent in english when they landed.

Bob24 · 04-04-2018 12:03pm

And now we are getting interest only buy-to-let mortgages: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0404/952015-concerns-over-new-interest-only-buy-to-let-mortgages/

How could anyone in the government/CBI think it is a good idea to allow this???

Arthur Daley · 04-04-2018 12:22pm

Bob24 wrote: »

And now we are getting interest only buy-to-let mortgages: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0404/952015-concerns-over-new-interest-only-buy-to-let-mortgages/

How could anyone in the government/CBI think it is a good idea to allow this???

Business as Usual

gargargar · 04-04-2018 12:58pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

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Spain has an awful problem with youth unemployment. Hence the migration abroad.

FullOf..IT · 04-04-2018 1:22pm

About to jump and Im being drawn towards locking in 10 year fixed with KBC @ 2.99%.

I would have to move to them from PTSB to secure a 0.2% rate decrease but looking at their fees I should still be better off.

Whats forums thoughts?

Samuel T. Cogley · 04-04-2018 1:26pm

KBC rate is about to be no more, so whatever is available.

Cyrus · 04-04-2018 1:27pm

FullOf..IT wrote: »

About to jump and Im being drawn towards locking in 10 year fixed with KBC @ 2.99%.

I would have to move to them from PTSB to secure a 0.2% rate decrease but looking at their fees I should still be better off.

Whats forums thoughts?

other option is 2.6% or 2.5% (depending on mortgage size) with UB and legal fees are covered.

Assetbacked · 09-04-2018 2:15pm

draiochtanois wrote: »

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I have decided to spend the next six months learning German with the hope of moving over to one of the major cities there in the next twelve months. Educated here and qualified but willing to (initially at least) sacrifice my career in order to experience the better lifestyle (energy and financial cost versus reward) on offer in Germany.

Initial financial projections would indicate that I would be almost equivalent financially by taking a job with an average salary in Germany (currently on an above average salary in Ireland). Therefore, it makes more sense for me to have the benefits of the German lifestyle.

CalRobert · 09-04-2018 2:19pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I have decided to spend the next six months learning German with the hope of moving over to one of the major cities there in the next twelve months. Educated here and qualified but willing to (initially at least) sacrifice my career in order to experience the better lifestyle (energy and financial cost versus reward) on offer in Germany.

Initial financial projections would indicate that I would be almost equivalent financially by taking a job with an average salary in Germany (currently on an above average salary in Ireland). Therefore, it makes more sense for me to have the benefits of the German lifestyle.

Good luck!

It's pretty sad when a country's people have to emigrate in bad times AND good times. FG might as well mean 0 ****s Given.

Cyrus · 09-04-2018 2:52pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I have decided to spend the next six months learning German with the hope of moving over to one of the major cities there in the next twelve months. Educated here and qualified but willing to (initially at least) sacrifice my career in order to experience the better lifestyle (energy and financial cost versus reward) on offer in Germany.

Initial financial projections would indicate that I would be almost equivalent financially by taking a job with an average salary in Germany (currently on an above average salary in Ireland). Therefore, it makes more sense for me to have the benefits of the German lifestyle.

whats the better lifestyle in germany and what industry is this in? Genuinely curious

draiochtanois · 09-04-2018 2:53pm

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Shedite27 · 09-04-2018 3:49pm

CalRobert wrote: »

Good luck!

It's pretty sad when a country's people have to emigrate in bad times AND good times. FG might as well mean 0 ****s Given.

The poster said he's choosing to move because he thinks it's a better lifestyle. Nothing forcing him to move.

People have always left Ireland (and other countries) through good and bad, it's nothing new.

Bob24 · 09-04-2018 3:59pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

The poster said he's choosing to move because he thinks it's a better lifestyle. Nothing forcing him to move.

People have always left Ireland (and other countries) through good and bad, it's nothing new.

Yes and there are also Germans who are moving to Ireland. Works both ways and doesn’t mean any of the 2 countries is crap.

Samuel T. Cogley · 09-04-2018 5:22pm

Cyrus wrote: »

whats the better lifestyle in germany and what industry is this in? Genuinely curious

A much less repressed attitude to sex is a good starting point. :pac:

Assetbacked · 09-04-2018 11:47pm

Cyrus wrote: »

whats the better lifestyle in germany and what industry is this in? Genuinely curious

I have a German girlfriend so she would be happier living there for one!

For me, the lifestyle benefits include; Thermal spas/saunas are popular (so nice for relaxing and not seen as a luxury too), sports halls where it is possible to pay and use gyms, pools, badminton halls etc, open attitude to sex so swinger clubs are common, clubs in general for so many different activities, German food and beer is incredible (obviously not particularly healthy though!) and not expensive to go out, skiing in winter (having the Alps in the country, not just for skiing), actually having seasons like hot summers and snowy winters; being based on continental Europe so easy access to other European countries, there is a stable and more affordable rental situation, football is the main sport, transport systems and infrastructure is efficient and so reliable, there is so much culture within Germany (Oktoberfest, Christmas markets, white asparagus season, carnival, May festival are just some examples of the popular big festivals), incredible and extremely safe cities and towns, relaxed attitude in the South, inexpensive supermarkets and the people are fantastic (beautiful women, great sense of humour and very friendly and down to earth).

All of the above makes up the lifestyle benefit for me. I work in law in Ireland but am happy to go to Germany and not initially work in law just to experience the lifestyle, which may mean taking a job on half my current salary but, as I’ve said, even if I did that, financially myself and my girlfriend would not be much worse off than we are currently in Dublin. One thing I’ve noticed with Germany is that money has a far less impact on the class of a person. There are so many more people in Germany that are not rich but are still respectable, polite and open compared to Dublin where there seems to be a more prevalent “I’m a victim” or “life is about getting what you can from the State” attitude.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 09-04-2018 11:49pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

I have a German girlfriend so she would be happier living there for one!

For me, the lifestyle benefits include; Thermal spas/saunas are popular, sports halls where it is possible to pay and use gyms, pools, badminton halls etc, open attitude to sex so swinger clubs are common, German food and beer is incredible (obviously not particularly healthy though!) and not expensive to go out, skiing in winter (having the Alps in the country, not just for skiing), actually having seasons like hot summers and snowy winters; being based on continental Europe so easy access to other European countries, there is a stable and more affordable rental situation, football is the main sport, transport systems and infrastructure is efficient and so reliable, there is so much culture within Germany (Oktoberfest, Christmas markets, white asparagus season, carnival, May festival etc), incredible and extremely safe cities and towns, relaxed attitude in the South, inexpensive supermarkets and the people are fantastic (beautiful women, great sense of humour and very friendly and down to earth).

All of the above makes up the lifestyle benefit for me. I work in law in Ireland but am happy to go to Germany and not initially work in law just to experience Germany, which may mean taking a job on half my current salary but, as I’ve said, even if I did that, financially myself and my girlfriend would not be much worse off than we are currently in Dublin.

Hmm. My brother lives in Germany and he would agree with only some of that. Far away fields. Let’s see what you think in a few years there.

Assetbacked · 09-04-2018 11:55pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Hmm. My brother lives in Germany and he would agree with only some of that. Far away fields. Let’s see what you think in a few years there.

I’m not a big drinker and prefer to get up very early to just be up and active. Is your brother more into socialising?

utmbuilder · 10-04-2018 5:21am

Outside Dublin I believe has peaked with second hand homes under serious pressure now to hold the their prices due to new builds coming online every 4 months, 50 coming online from each development at a time

The amount of zoning given out in places like navan for 1000s of homes are going to make it extremely hard for second hand property's to compete against new builds a rated with fittings , even solar as standard

New building regs seem to be bringing good standards

zl1whqvjs75cdy · 10-04-2018 1:41pm

utmbuilder wrote: »

Outside Dublin I believe has peaked with second hand homes under serious pressure now to hold the their prices due to new builds coming online every 4 months, 50 coming online from each development at a time

The amount of zoning given out in places like navan for 1000s of homes are going to make it extremely hard for second hand property's to compete against new builds a rated with fittings , even solar as standard

New building regs seem to be bringing good standards

Not from what I've seen. Multiple bidders all over any kind of decent second hand place. It obviously is house dependant (rewire, replumb or just cosmetic work) but any second hand house I've heard of in my area as gone 10 % over asking and seems to be continuing to climb. There are some new builds coming on stream alright but only 50 or so in my town. In other towns I've seen (naas foe example) there are 300 to 400 currently being build with another 700 planned if they can get the road infrastructure sorted. That will obviously affect prices all over. Don't think it's as simple as all second hand houses are maxed on price though.

Bargain_Hound · 10-04-2018 1:46pm

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/in-pictures-desperate-househunters-queue-outside-new-dublin-development-days-ahead-of-sale-36792964.html

Nothing new to see here...

ELM327 · 10-04-2018 1:49pm

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/in-pictures-desperate-househunters-queue-outside-new-dublin-development-days-ahead-of-sale-36792964.html

Nothing new to see here...

2006 is calling

Property Market 2018

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