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Property Market 2018

castle2012

With supply still very tight. A homeless problem. Rising employment. It sure looks like where set for more large rises. There's not much to suggest otherwise. Any thoughts?

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Shedite27

CalRobert wrote: »

Good luck!

It's pretty sad when a country's people have to emigrate in bad times AND good times. FG might as well mean 0 ****s Given.

The poster said he's choosing to move because he thinks it's a better lifestyle. Nothing forcing him to move.

People have always left Ireland (and other countries) through good and bad, it's nothing new.

Bob24

Shedite27 wrote: »

The poster said he's choosing to move because he thinks it's a better lifestyle. Nothing forcing him to move.

People have always left Ireland (and other countries) through good and bad, it's nothing new.

Yes and there are also Germans who are moving to Ireland. Works both ways and doesn’t mean any of the 2 countries is crap.

Samuel T. Cogley

Cyrus wrote: »

whats the better lifestyle in germany and what industry is this in? Genuinely curious

A much less repressed attitude to sex is a good starting point. :pac:

Assetbacked

Cyrus wrote: »

whats the better lifestyle in germany and what industry is this in? Genuinely curious

I have a German girlfriend so she would be happier living there for one!

For me, the lifestyle benefits include; Thermal spas/saunas are popular (so nice for relaxing and not seen as a luxury too), sports halls where it is possible to pay and use gyms, pools, badminton halls etc, open attitude to sex so swinger clubs are common, clubs in general for so many different activities, German food and beer is incredible (obviously not particularly healthy though!) and not expensive to go out, skiing in winter (having the Alps in the country, not just for skiing), actually having seasons like hot summers and snowy winters; being based on continental Europe so easy access to other European countries, there is a stable and more affordable rental situation, football is the main sport, transport systems and infrastructure is efficient and so reliable, there is so much culture within Germany (Oktoberfest, Christmas markets, white asparagus season, carnival, May festival are just some examples of the popular big festivals), incredible and extremely safe cities and towns, relaxed attitude in the South, inexpensive supermarkets and the people are fantastic (beautiful women, great sense of humour and very friendly and down to earth).

All of the above makes up the lifestyle benefit for me. I work in law in Ireland but am happy to go to Germany and not initially work in law just to experience the lifestyle, which may mean taking a job on half my current salary but, as I’ve said, even if I did that, financially myself and my girlfriend would not be much worse off than we are currently in Dublin. One thing I’ve noticed with Germany is that money has a far less impact on the class of a person. There are so many more people in Germany that are not rich but are still respectable, polite and open compared to Dublin where there seems to be a more prevalent “I’m a victim” or “life is about getting what you can from the State” attitude.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Assetbacked wrote: »

I have a German girlfriend so she would be happier living there for one!

For me, the lifestyle benefits include; Thermal spas/saunas are popular, sports halls where it is possible to pay and use gyms, pools, badminton halls etc, open attitude to sex so swinger clubs are common, German food and beer is incredible (obviously not particularly healthy though!) and not expensive to go out, skiing in winter (having the Alps in the country, not just for skiing), actually having seasons like hot summers and snowy winters; being based on continental Europe so easy access to other European countries, there is a stable and more affordable rental situation, football is the main sport, transport systems and infrastructure is efficient and so reliable, there is so much culture within Germany (Oktoberfest, Christmas markets, white asparagus season, carnival, May festival etc), incredible and extremely safe cities and towns, relaxed attitude in the South, inexpensive supermarkets and the people are fantastic (beautiful women, great sense of humour and very friendly and down to earth).

All of the above makes up the lifestyle benefit for me. I work in law in Ireland but am happy to go to Germany and not initially work in law just to experience Germany, which may mean taking a job on half my current salary but, as I’ve said, even if I did that, financially myself and my girlfriend would not be much worse off than we are currently in Dublin.

Hmm. My brother lives in Germany and he would agree with only some of that. Far away fields. Let’s see what you think in a few years there.

Assetbacked

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Hmm. My brother lives in Germany and he would agree with only some of that. Far away fields. Let’s see what you think in a few years there.

I’m not a big drinker and prefer to get up very early to just be up and active. Is your brother more into socialising?

utmbuilder

Outside Dublin I believe has peaked with second hand homes under serious pressure now to hold the their prices due to new builds coming online every 4 months, 50 coming online from each development at a time

The amount of zoning given out in places like navan for 1000s of homes are going to make it extremely hard for second hand property's to compete against new builds a rated with fittings , even solar as standard

New building regs seem to be bringing good standards

zl1whqvjs75cdy

utmbuilder wrote: »

Outside Dublin I believe has peaked with second hand homes under serious pressure now to hold the their prices due to new builds coming online every 4 months, 50 coming online from each development at a time

The amount of zoning given out in places like navan for 1000s of homes are going to make it extremely hard for second hand property's to compete against new builds a rated with fittings , even solar as standard

New building regs seem to be bringing good standards

Not from what I've seen. Multiple bidders all over any kind of decent second hand place. It obviously is house dependant (rewire, replumb or just cosmetic work) but any second hand house I've heard of in my area as gone 10 % over asking and seems to be continuing to climb. There are some new builds coming on stream alright but only 50 or so in my town. In other towns I've seen (naas foe example) there are 300 to 400 currently being build with another 700 planned if they can get the road infrastructure sorted. That will obviously affect prices all over. Don't think it's as simple as all second hand houses are maxed on price though.

Bargain_Hound

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/in-pictures-desperate-househunters-queue-outside-new-dublin-development-days-ahead-of-sale-36792964.html

Nothing new to see here...

ELM327

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/in-pictures-desperate-househunters-queue-outside-new-dublin-development-days-ahead-of-sale-36792964.html

Nothing new to see here...

2006 is calling

MayoSalmon

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/in-pictures-desperate-househunters-queue-outside-new-dublin-development-days-ahead-of-sale-36792964.html

Nothing new to see here...

Market is well and truly slowing down:pac::pac:

Eric Cartman

for f*ck sake.... this tells me its the exact wrong time to buy a house , we're at 'that' part of the cycle again,

end 2019 and we're going to have a load of half finished estates and the bubble will burst again.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Eric Cartman wrote: »

for f*ck sake.... this tells me its the exact wrong time to buy a house , we're at 'that' part of the cycle again,

end 2019 and we're going to have a load of half finished estates and the bubble will burst again.

Buy what you can afford that suits you're needs for 10 years or more. If the arse does fall out of it then it doesn't really matter. For what it's worth I think prices will continue to climb for the foreseeable future. No supply, absolutely boat loads of demand and as rents climb this will only drive demand. With the population of the country expected to rise by 1 million in the coming decades that demand isn't going anywhere.

Was only discussing with a friend there that I reckon we're entering a stage where people will pass on renting altogether. They'll live with the folks as long as possible and buy straight away. Obviously only practical if you can get work near you're folks house.

Cyrus

no its relatively affordable houses that are brand new, makes sense instead of over paying for an old house that will need 100-150k spent on it to get it to the same size and energy efficiency

MayoSalmon

Eric Cartman wrote: »

for f*ck sake.... this tells me its the exact wrong time to buy a house , we're at 'that' part of the cycle again,

end 2019 and we're going to have a load of half finished estates and the bubble will burst again.

Supply Bubble?? aka 80,000 houses to get built next year as there is no credit bubble to burst this time round.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Supply Bubble?? aka 80,000 houses to get built next year as there is no credit bubble to burst this time round.

No chance of this amount being built. My conspiracy theory hat would say that developers are deliberately building slowly so the market won't get flooded with a heap of houses at once. It suits them grand to build at a sedate pace.

Arthur Daley

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

No chance of this amount being built. My conspiracy theory hat would say that developers are deliberately building slowly so the market won't get flooded with a heap of houses at once. It suits them grand to build at a sedate pace.

That's just called business. The problem is just like 2006/2007 employers get to a point where they can/will no longer pay the high prices for labour. Busting the cycle again. If these punters don't get pay hikes they cannot afford Dublin 15 homes that start at €300,000.

Zenify

Just got a call from my mortgage broker that banks are going to pull a lot of exemptions.

Reduce the amount of new ones and even retract some already given that have not drawn down. I have an exemption and that's why he was telling me.

This could be a ploy to encourage me to buy asap so he gets his commission but he said I would see in in the news over the next few days.

It could also be a sign that business is slowing down and he needs to make money. What are people's thoughts?

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Cyrus

Zenify wrote: »

Just got a call from my mortgage broker that banks are going to pull a lot of exemptions.

Reduce the amount of new ones and even retract some already given that have not drawn down. I have an exemption and that's why he was telling me.

This could be a ploy to encourage me to buy asap so he gets his commission but he said I would see in in the news over the next few days.

It could also be a sign that business is slowing down and he needs to make money. What are people's thoughts?

i presume they want to use their exemptions so if people are sitting on them they will grant them to someone who is ready to use it immediately (i.e. buying a new build)

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

no its relatively affordable houses that are brand new, makes sense instead of over paying for an old house that will need 100-150k spent on it to get it to the same size and energy efficiency

I think in the majority of cases a new 4 bed semi is no where near the size of a 4 bed semi from the 60s etc.

Also I cannot understand the energy efficiency thing in Ireland. It's mild enough April to Aug to the extent most folk need little to no heating.

The ones in the articles are in D15 & "“The homes carry guide prices of between €300,000 and €500,000 at the moment. They are three and four bed units, but we won’t know an exact price until Friday morning,” one man explained. He joined the queue early yesterday morning"

Surely €500k would buy a very decent and spaciius second hand 4 bed D15 house.

[Deleted User]

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Hmm. My brother lives in Germany and he would agree with only some of that. Far away fields. Let’s see what you think in a few years there.

+1

I was in chemnitz for a month in 2017, Austria for 2 months in 2017 ......... zero temptation to live anywhere near either locations.

I'm currently in austria again........ Ireland is a fine spot in comparison IMO

Bargain_Hound

Zenify wrote: »

Just got a call from my mortgage broker that banks are going to pull a lot of exemptions.

Reduce the amount of new ones and even retract some already given that have not drawn down. I have an exemption and that's why he was telling me.

This could be a ploy to encourage me to buy asap so he gets his commission but he said I would see in in the news over the next few days.

It could also be a sign that business is slowing down and he needs to make money. What are people's thoughts?

If true, I wonder what would happen in my case as I have been granted an exemption on a new build, signed, paid deposit & waiting to complete - are they going to retract?

Colonel Claptrap

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

My conspiracy theory hat would say that developers are deliberately building slowly so the market won't get flooded with a heap of houses at once. It suits them grand to build at a sedate pace.

Think about what you are suggesting.

Let's say you and I sell iPhones to the Irish public. We have the market sewn up, no competition. If somebody wants to buy an iPhone they have to go through us.

We get together and decide to control the price by restricting supply. Only 100 iPhones can be bought this year, 50 from you and 50 for me. We charge 10k for a phone and people are queuing up for days to get them. We're making crazy money and there are thousands of people, ready and waiting with cash to buy one.

But, why don't I sell a few more? You won't know. And even if you did, you can't sue me because what we're doing is illegal.

You have to trust me and I have to trust you. But there's nothing stopping either of us from selling a few more. Or hundreds more. Or fulfilling demand entirely.

Now imagine there are dozens, or even hundreds of other businesses who can sell iphones to the masses. We'd all have to trust each other. Anyone who wanted to sell phones would have to be part of our cartel. If 1 guy wanted to sell unlimited iphones he could make a killing and there's absolutely nothing we could do to stop him.

This 'restriction of supply' notion has been thrown around here a few times. It makes no sense when demand is this frothy.

Galwayforliam

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/in-pictures-desperate-househunters-queue-outside-new-dublin-development-days-ahead-of-sale-36792964.html

Nothing new to see here...

Belarmine Woods Stepaside final phase launching this weekend- probably queues starting tomorrow? One of the show houses 4-bed semi sold for €640k which is the same spec as new ones lunching- is this the new benchmark?!

Eric Cartman

Colonel Claptrap wrote: »

Think about what you are suggesting.

Let's say you and I sell iPhones to the Irish public. We have the market sewn up, no competition. If somebody wants to buy an iPhone they have to go through us.

We get together and decide to control the price by restricting supply. Only 100 iPhones can be bought this year, 50 from you and 50 for me. We charge 10k for a phone and people are queuing up for days to get them. We're making crazy money and there are thousands of people, ready and waiting with cash to buy one.

But, why don't I sell a few more? You won't know. And even if you did, you can't sue me because what we're doing is illegal.

You have to trust me and I have to trust you. But there's nothing stopping either of us from selling a few more. Or hundreds more. Or fulfilling demand entirely.

Now imagine there are dozens, or even hundreds of other businesses who can sell iphones to the masses. We'd all have to trust each other. Anyone who wanted to sell phones would have to be part of our cartel. If 1 guy wanted to sell unlimited iphones he could make a killing and there's absolutely nothing we could do to stop him.

This 'restriction of supply' notion has been thrown around here a few times. It makes no sense when demand is this frothy.

+1 , there are lots of people who would love to be a 'have a go hero' at property developing, loads of developers trying to get projects done, Johnny ronin has eyes on demolishing half of Dublin 2 and rebuilding it in his image. The supply constraint is mostly caused by land zoning , slow planning process and the stupidly high council contributions.

you can't rent a heavy digger, van, road sweeper or self drive dump truck at short notice for love nor money at the moment. All of the construction tools in the country are currently in use.

[Deleted User]

Eric Cartman wrote: »

for f*ck sake.... this tells me its the exact wrong time to buy a house , we're at 'that' part of the cycle again,

end 2019 and we're going to have a load of half finished estates and the bubble will burst again.

Depends where they decide to build them. Outside Dublin there's still some value to be had and there's places that are unlikely to ever lose more than 15-20k in value unless things get so bad that we're in a situation that you need to board up doors and windows anyway. :P
The crash is a while away yet, I don't see a load of half-done building sites being abandoned in 18 months within an hour of Dublin.

6541

That saying when everyone is buying into stock market then walk away. All the papers have glossy house supplements. Everyone is talking about property. I would say this can't go on.

[Deleted User]

6541 wrote: »

That saying when everyone is buying into stock market then walk away. All the papers have glossy house supplements. Everyone is talking about property. I would say this can't go on.

The imbalance in the market is mental. Dublin looks to have gone completely bat**** insane. Outside Dublin is very different. Rents have gone mental again but property prices are still pretty low. You can get a decent 3-bedroom place 45 minutes from the airport for about €130k. Mortgage cost would be roughly half what the rent is. If only I had a deposit. :P

Zenify

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

If true, I wonder what would happen in my case as I have been granted an exemption on a new build, signed, paid deposit & waiting to complete - are they going to retract?

He said they will be retracting mostly from applicants who are less active. He indicated that someone in the process of buying would be fine.