Property Market 2018

KellyXX

Graham wrote: »

The company specialises in flipping distressed debt for profit. By all accounts it appears to be all they do, and it's something they're fairly good at. What makes you think they would change their entire business model and branch into an entirely unrelated industry?

If AIB had repossessed a hotel, put in interim management and sold when the hotel market had recovered we wouldn't be assuming that was an indicator of a downturn for the hotel industry at large.

Surely as someone who works in finance you recognise that it's fairly sound/common business practice for a company to stick to it's core business. The business it knows. The business its good at.

I sit beside and have lunch with the experts at this stuff and I can tell you that since yesterday this is a big buzz. It's not over yet.

Wanderer78

KellyXX wrote: »

I sit beside and have lunch with the experts at this stuff and I can tell you that since yesterday this is a big buzz. It's not over yet.

id have very low opinion of 'experts' in this field, as it seems like theres a lot of idiotic and potentially dangerous 'group think' going on, and thats not a personal jab either.

Bargain_Hound

KellyXX wrote: »

I sit beside and have lunch with the experts at this stuff and I can tell you that since yesterday this is a big buzz. It's not over yet.

Funny, I seem to sit beside an expert in some subject every day at lunch. Hasn't made me rich or powerful yet

..oh and neither did they.

Mickiemcfist

KellyXX wrote: »

I sit beside and have lunch with the experts at this stuff and I can tell you that since yesterday this is a big buzz. It's not over yet.

Was it a big buzz 13 months ago when Oaktree did the same thing? It's their business model, it's not symptomatic of a crash.

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/residents-at-city-apartment-block-vow-to-fight-vulture-fund-to-keep-their-homes-35358796.html

lawred2

Toby Esterhase wrote: »

The only 'predictable' impact I could see causing a drop in house prices over the next 5 years is interest rates rising. This would cause more of a slow decline rather than a crash as less people are offered mortgages and existing homeowners get into mortgage difficulty when their savings run out. A slow process. Combined with an increase in supply (building/planning/etc is evidently a very slow process in this country) I could see 8-10% annual decline from 2023-2028 as the impact is felt.
Other events like Brexit or war are less predictable to determine their impact on house prices.
Short term there is no signs of a slowdown. I thought the few months up to Christmas were showing signs of a slowdown but since the new year prices (asking prices anyway) are up over 10% in Dublin 15 where I am looking to buy.

10% per annum for five years? Is that not a 40% decline in house prices between 2023 - 2028?

I would think that's a bit more than a slow decline.

Toby Esterhase

KellyXX wrote: »

I sit beside and have lunch with the experts at this stuff and I can tell you that since yesterday this is a big buzz. It's not over yet.

What did the experts say? Share with the rest of us!

Cyrus

KellyXX wrote: »

I sit beside and have lunch with the experts at this stuff and I can tell you that since yesterday this is a big buzz. It's not over yet.

first you are in finance so you know

then the people you sit beside at lunch know

stop listening to guff at lunch time :pac:

oaktree will be realising profits and moving on, holding assets as landlords isnt on their agenda if they can avoid

Bob24

Graham wrote: »

The company specialises in flipping distressed debt for profit. By all accounts it appears to be all they do, and it's something they're fairly good at. What makes you think they would change their entire business model and branch into an entirely unrelated industry?

If AIB had repossessed a hotel, put in interim management and sold when the hotel market had recovered we wouldn't be assuming that was an indicator of a downturn for the hotel industry at large.

Surely as someone who works in finance you recognise that it's fairly sound/common business practice for a company to stick to it's core business. The business it knows. The business its good at.

All very right, and I think it is worth adding that over the past few days there have been much talks about PTSB transfering distressed mortgages to vulture funds, which will likely end-up temporary becoming a landlords and property owners as they obtains repossession orders or voluntary surrenders for some of the affected properties. Once these funds start disposing of the properties it will be silly to conclude that institutional landlords are leaving the country ... again! We all know from day one that they have no intention of becoming long term landlords and they will just execute their business plan which is to make a profit for dealing with distressed debt in a more agressive way than an Irish bank would.

So these funds are not leaving Ireland, they are just doing what they always do which is buying debt at a discount and making profit from the forcing the debtor to pay or disposing of their associated asset. Some will be entering and others leaving regularly depending on what stage in the process they are at, and just looking at one which is leaving while ignoring they ones which are coming in makes little sense.

KellyXX

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

Funny, I seem to sit beside an expert in some subject every day at lunch. Hasn't made me rich or powerful yet

..oh and neither did they.

I'm not the expert. They certainly are and I'm just telling you that they are buzzing on this.

Let's wait and see so.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Assetbacked

With the media hype around the Microsoft offices opening today, it made me think - this shows signs of investing long term in Ireland. Potentially new staff will be hired. But where do people actually plan on living? The situation is so bad rent-wise it requires drastic efforts to be taken or else the next election will throw up political chaos. The fact that so much of people's livelihoods is being hoovered up in rent and basic living expenses means that so many people must feel like they are struggling.

Could Microsoft, Google, Apple etc. who avail of our non-existent tax regime give back to the country and develop properties to rent out to the staff which they are shipping over en masse? Is it conceivable that these companies would give back to the country in a way which would benefit the people who they hire and pay to work in their offices?

Mickiemcfist

Assetbacked wrote: »

With the media hype around the Microsoft offices opening today, it made me think - this shows signs of investing long term in Ireland. Potentially new staff will be hired. But where do people actually plan on living? The situation is so bad rent-wise it requires drastic efforts to be taken or else the next election will throw up political chaos. The fact that so much of people's livelihoods is being hoovered up in rent and basic living expenses means that so many people must feel like they are struggling.

Could Microsoft, Google, Apple etc. who avail of our non-existent tax regime give back to the country and develop properties to rent out to the staff which they are shipping over en masse? Is it conceivable that these companies would give back to the country in a way which would benefit the people who they hire and pay to work in their offices?

Nice idea, but a pipedream unfortunately. What they do instead is contribute to the rental crisis by paying a huge amount to rent property for their staff. Where's the motivation to become a developer.

Bob24

Assetbacked wrote: »

Could Microsoft, Google, Apple etc. who avail of our non-existent tax regime give back to the country and develop properties to rent out to the staff which they are shipping over en masse? Is it conceivable that these companies would give back to the country in a way which would benefit the people who they hire and pay to work in their offices?

It might look good at first sight, but very bad idea in my opinion. Housing being privatised by large employers and people depending on their job for housing would be going back decades in the past in terms of social progress. It would be a more luxurious and westernised version of migrant workers living in dorms provided by their employer in China (of course with much better conditions, but still with that dependancy on your employer for being able to live in an economic centre which weakens you position in society a lot).

It is already partly happening though: some of the new mixed-developments under construction in the Docklands will have all their housing units retained by the developer to be rented out to employees of the companies who occupy the commercial units (see for exemple the Capital Dock development whereby "businesses that locate in Capital Dock will have the advantage of priority access to the scheme’s 190 luxury rental apartments")

Grawns

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Am familiar with oaktree as they're invested in Ormonde mining. They seek out distressed assets with potential and wait until the time is right realise their massive return and move on. Very diversified. I probably should have invested with them instead

KellyXX

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I wish.

Interested Observer

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Nice idea, but a pipedream unfortunately. What they do instead is contribute to the rental crisis by paying a huge amount to rent property for their staff. Where's the motivation to become a developer.

I'm pretty sure Google have bought out the Boland's Mill redevelopment, so they're going to own a rake of apartments soon enough. Be interesting to see what they do with them.

Mickiemcfist

Interested Observer wrote: »

I'm pretty sure Google have bought out the Boland's Mill redevelopment, so they're going to own a rake of apartments soon enough. Be interesting to see what they do with them.

As far as I know it's still run by NAMA, but I don't have any industry knowledge of it I just know from the website. - so maybe somethings changed

Edit - just saw an article saying Google were lining up to buy it.

The_Conductor

Interested Observer wrote: »

I'm pretty sure Google have bought out the Boland's Mill redevelopment, so they're going to own a rake of apartments soon enough. Be interesting to see what they do with them.

Its 3 towers- two of which are to be entirely office space, the third is 42 residential units, of which 11 are 3 bed apartments, 18 are 2 bed apartments and 13 are 1 bed apartments. Google are using the 42 units to try to entice staff from overseas to work in Dublin- and its thought the 3 bed units will be given to senior managers as part of a package to bring their families over- to include school fees in a new international school slated to open this autumn.

There are a total of 42 residential units- and they're being used to plug skills gaps predominantly. Google stated to Dublin city council that while their preference was for more residential units for their staff- it didn't make financial sense, as the staff were being taxed on them as a BIK at a combined marginal rate of 52%

Reason given for no more residential units- personal tax rates for employees too high.

Browney7

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its 3 towers- two of which are to be entirely office space, the third is 42 residential units, of which 11 are 3 bed apartments, 18 are 2 bed apartments and 13 are 1 bed apartments. Google are using the 42 units to try to entice staff from overseas to work in Dublin- and its thought the 3 bed units will be given to senior managers as part of a package to bring their families over- to include school fees in a new international school slated to open this autumn.

There are a total of 42 residential units- and they're being used to plug skills gaps predominantly. Google stated to Dublin city council that while their preference was for more residential units for their staff- it didn't make financial sense, as the staff were being taxed on them as a BIK at a combined marginal rate of 52%

Reason given for no more residential units- personal tax rates for employees too high.

Surely Google could structure something under the SARP (special assignee relief program) for employees to make it worth their while?

OwlsZat

We're in quite a funny situation. We've a very split society developing. Half invested in cheap property and are profiting from the investment. Of the other half some are renting at huge rents ending up taking up little money despite earning decent wages. Others are buying at inflated prices based on current repayment potential. 

Those buying or renting property are very exposed. While it's business as usual on the surface of the property market. Fundamentally looks like a storm's a brewing.

whatever76

OwlsZat wrote: »

We're in quite a funny situation. We've a very split society developing. Half invested in cheap property and are profiting from the investment. Of the other half some are renting at huge rents ending up taking up little money despite earning decent wages. Others are buying at inflated prices based on current repayment potential.

Those buying or renting property are very exposed. While it's business as usual on the surface of the property market. Fundamentally looks like a storm's a brewing.

very well put !

Bargain_Hound

OwlsZat wrote: »

We're in quite a funny situation. We've a very split society developing. Half invested in cheap property and are profiting from the investment. Of the other half some are renting at huge rents ending up taking up little money despite earning decent wages. Others are buying at inflated prices based on current repayment potential. 

Those buying or renting property are very exposed. While it's business as usual on the surface of the property market. Fundamentally looks like a storm's a brewing.

Brewed and ready to pour more like.

pilly

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Bit strange there's no gas in there. Would have thought it'd be handy enough to pipe it in. They have the heat pump systems though which are super slick so that's better than gas imo.

What do you mean heat pump systems? Sorry, I know slightly off topic.

Cyrus

pilly wrote: »

What do you mean heat pump systems? Sorry, I know slightly off topic.

chases0102

So essentially..... Bad time to buy?

OwlsZat

chases0102 wrote: »

So essentially..... Bad time to buy?

Will vary by person. Money is relatively cheap at present and assets are a little inflated. If you are OK with the asset price dropping a little and can handle the cost of borrowed money going up then as good a time as any. Strictly as an investment though. I'd suggest it's a poor time but again it's all down to opinion.

Galwayforliam

Hi we've just bought our house and looking for snagger recommendations in South Dublin please if people can DM

chases0102

Cheers.... Currently buying first home, and it's so daunting whether it's the right thing or not.

pilly

chases0102 wrote: »

Cheers.... Currently buying first home, and it's so daunting whether it's the right thing or not.

If you're buying a house to live in for a long time you don't need to worry about the market. There's never a perfect time to buy.

If everyone is to wait until the market crashes again then the banks won't be lending any money so you'd need to have cash in your pocket.

You really can't win unless you're rolling in it. Best of luck whatever you do.

Cyrus

chases0102 wrote: »

Cheers.... Currently buying first home, and it's so daunting whether it's the right thing or not.

if you need it and you can afford it then buy it