Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

nacho libre · 14-12-2018 3:57pm

This gives me and my father something to talk about and try and take his mind off his wretched illness. We love talking about the weather- but then so do most Irish People:)

Graces7 · 14-12-2018 4:07pm

It is so dark already. The sky is down to the earth and sodden with rain. Not cold, but smotheringly wet

Graces7 · 14-12-2018 5:51pm

Marine warning now orange which will affect coastal extremes

Status Orange - Gale Warning
Southeasterly winds will increase to gale force 8 or strong gale 9 tonight on coastal waters from Rossan Point to Howth Head to Hook Head and on the Irish Sea, extending to all coastal waters on Saturday morning.

West to northwest winds will increase to gale 8 or strong gale 9 during Saturday afternoon/evening on coastal waters from Hook Head to Loop Head to Erris Head, increasing to storm force 10, possibly violent storm 11 from Hook Head to Valentia.

Serious winds ahead

SleetAndSnow · 14-12-2018 6:05pm

ESB has released more water the usual from the dam here in cork city due to the rain. Lee fields + road flooded. https://mobile.twitter.com/CorkCyclingCrew/status/1073605953512267779

nacho libre · 14-12-2018 8:21pm

UK Met Office outlook:Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:

The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

It seems to be a question of when, not if from them regarding proper cold becoming established. I have not seen this certainity from them since 2010.

NMB · 14-12-2018 8:30pm

Yesss !!

Gonzo · 15-12-2018 3:53pm

another awful day here in south Meath, very wet conditions, dark, lights on.

At this stage I am really hoping for some settled frosty conditions to end this very long run of muck - I think we all need a break from the damp, wet and unsettled conditions of the past 6/7 weeks.

James Bond Junior · 15-12-2018 4:51pm

Like somebody just turned off the lights and on a tap in Limerick city. Sheets of rain after a lovely bright blue skied few hours.

Rock Lesnar · 15-12-2018 5:09pm

Windy with on and off spells of rain here today, expected a lot more rain then we got, i can see bright sky to our south west at the minute.

Donegal Storm · 15-12-2018 5:24pm

Another dark, depressing, wet and windy day in Donegal. Pouring down sheets of rain all day, so sick of this crap

nacho libre · 15-12-2018 6:02pm

Well it seems that so far we have no need to be jealous of people in the north of England, as the disruptive snow forecast looks a bust, except over high ground in Scotland. Freezing rain is the main problem for them right now.

Gonzo · 15-12-2018 11:12pm

the Snow failed to really make a mark in the UK other than from high ground, mostly sleety rain for the general population with some ice in certain parts. Very few white fields and roads away from high ground locations. We didn't miss out on much 'fun'.

Danno · 15-12-2018 11:29pm

Has MTC released his annual Winter Forecast for Ireland yet?

NMB · 16-12-2018 2:23am

Gonzo wrote: »

the Snow failed to really make a mark in the UK other than from high ground, mostly sleety rain for the general population with some ice in certain parts. Very few white fields and roads away from high ground locations. We didn't miss out on much 'fun'.

Absolutely totally right. The Tamara on netweather called it. Tam said December would be manky. So did our Sy here on Boards. Robust reputation posters have said - end of December there’s a chance for both islands for some sort of snow somewhere and January is going to get cold - very cold. Snow is coming folks but let’s not wish our lives away - enjoy the hunt for cold and don’t dwell on forecast to forecast ... the next week in Ireland is going to be rough and wet But Snow! yep it’s on the way.

NMB · 16-12-2018 2:27am

charts are flip flopping but the pattern is cold. Have faith we’ll all have a week off work !

Gonzo · 16-12-2018 12:22pm

NMB wrote: »

charts are flip flopping but the pattern is cold. Have faith we’ll all have a week off work !

yep, that easterly that was showing 2 days ago is all but gone at this stage, looks like we will still be in for cool conditions around Christmas with a brief northerly.

Right now it's not snow that I'm looking for, it's a week long dry spell which I really want right now. I would love Christmas Day to New Year's Day to be crisp and dry with heavy night time frosts and sunny days. The snow can wait till January and February!

Graces7 · 16-12-2018 12:59pm

The sun was shining earlier and I was about to go for a walk,,, then the heavens opened... back to dark skies and cold rain

West Mayo offshore

sryanbruen · 16-12-2018 1:31pm

UK Met Office has gotten even more bullish on the weather becoming blocked as we go into January.

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

Going into the New Year there is an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern becoming slow-moving or even "blocked", with Atlantic frontal systems held at bay by slow-moving areas of high pressure. This may result in more generally settled and cold weather conditions becoming established. This brings and increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost, and fog or freezing fog which may be slow to clear. When any frontal systems do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to be below normal, and often cold.

Artane2002 · 16-12-2018 1:55pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

UK Met Office has gotten even more bullish on the weather becoming blocked as we go into January.

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

Going into the New Year there is an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern becoming slow-moving or even "blocked", with Atlantic frontal systems held at bay by slow-moving areas of high pressure. This may result in more generally settled and cold weather conditions becoming established. This brings and increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost, and fog or freezing fog which may be slow to clear. When any frontal systems do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to be below normal, and often cold.

I'm loving the usage of the word "established"

Mortelaro · 16-12-2018 4:44pm

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1074328595588411392?s=09

nacho libre · 16-12-2018 5:45pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'm loving the usage of the word "established"

I may be being pessismistic, but they seem to expect attacks from the Atlantic, so i just hope the pattern does back far enough west so that we are not watching on envious while Britain gets snow

ZX7R · 16-12-2018 9:08pm

New yellow wind warning country wide for Monday

Andrew00 · 16-12-2018 9:11pm

ZX7R wrote: »

New yellow wind warning country wide for Monday

Ah here

alentejo · 16-12-2018 9:30pm

Its like its nearly every second day some wind and rain warning is posted by ME.

Gonzo · 16-12-2018 9:53pm

We have another very unsettled Atlantic driven week ahead with plenty of wind and rain over the next 8 days and generally staying mild, perhaps very mild around the 22nd and 23rd.

Currently it looks like we will finally get about 3 or 4 days respite from the Atlantic with slightly cooler temperatures, hopefully rain free days and some seasonal night time frosts from the 24th to about the 27th.

mickger844posts · 16-12-2018 9:57pm

A further 9.7mm of rain recorded today at my Waterford City station. This brings the December total to 181.9mm. Adding in the November total of 281.9mm it brings the Month and a half total to a whopping 463.8mm.

www.waterfordweather.com

Oscar Bravo · 16-12-2018 10:32pm

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Munster, Connacht and Donegal

South to southeast winds will reach mean speed at times between 50 and 65km/h and gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds may exceed these limits in coastal areas.
Issued: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Updated: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Valid from Monday 17 December 2018 13:00 to Tuesday 18 December 2018 04:00

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan and Monaghan

South to southeast winds will reach mean speeds at times between 50 and 65km/h and gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds may exceed these limits in coastal areas.
Issued: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Updated: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Valid from Monday 17 December 2018 19:00 to Tuesday 18 December 2018 0900

Storm 10 · 17-12-2018 12:41am

Cracking picture posted by Chaosheng Zhang on his Facebook there are 9 pictures taken in Galway today well worth a look at his Facebook

Meteorite58 · 17-12-2018 1:34am

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1074444994277269504

SleetAndSnow · 17-12-2018 1:44am

Cold night here in cork city. Cars are all frosted over.

Graces7 · 17-12-2018 7:13am

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Munster, Connacht and Donegal

South to southeast winds will reach mean speed at times between 50 and 65km/h and gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds may exceed these limits in coastal areas.
Issued: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Updated: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Valid from Monday 17 December 2018 13:00 to Tuesday 18 December 2018 04:00

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan and Monaghan

South to southeast winds will reach mean speeds at times between 50 and 65km/h and gusts between 90 and 100 km/h. Winds may exceed these limits in coastal areas.
Issued: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Updated: Sunday 16 December 2018 19:00
Valid from Monday 17 December 2018 19:00 to Tuesday 18 December 2018 0900

Just waking to this. Ah well... hoping still to get across once more before Christmas...if not, ok.

sryanbruen · 17-12-2018 2:48pm

Latest UK Met Office outlook:

However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:
In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

MidMan25 · 17-12-2018 2:58pm

Wet in the west of UK therefore wet for us too...

derekon · 17-12-2018 6:33pm

MidMan25 wrote: »

Wet in the west of UK therefore wet for us too...

Yippee!! More wind & rain after 5 weeks of it. Anyone driven demented yet?!!!!

D

Gonzo · 17-12-2018 6:52pm

derekon wrote: »

Yippee!! More wind & rain after 5 weeks of it. Anyone driven demented yet?!!!!

D

another 8 days of windy wet muck to go, There is a chance things should dry out from Christmas day. Currently it's looking like there could be a dry and mild run between Stephens Day and New Year's Day, there would still be potential for some night time frosts if sky's are clear enough.

No real cold over the next 2 weeks, hopefully some blocking will start to show in the charts around New Year's Day.

SleetAndSnow · 17-12-2018 7:21pm

This is a good test for my Christmas decorations anyway. Make sure they are pinned down alright!

Little snowy old me · 17-12-2018 7:36pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Latest UK Met Office outlook:

However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:
In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

In other words, the Atlantic will dominate Ireland this winter. The earlier bullish talk of a cold spell from many quarters is losing momentum. I'm anticipating no snowfall this season in Clondalkin. Wet, mild and windy muck (not even an exciting windstorm likely). Very depressing.

sryanbruen · 17-12-2018 7:38pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

In other words, the Atlantic will dominate Ireland this winter. The earlier bullish talk of a cold spell from many quarters is losing momentum. I'm anticipating no snowfall this season in Clondalkin. Wet, mild and windy muck (not even an exciting windstorm likely). Very depressing.

Remember this is a long range outlook so unreliable. The so-called earlier bullish talk you speak of was mainly for February which is the month I highlighted for cold in my forecast.... which is a long way off at this rate. I don't see much negatives from that UK Met Office outlook anyway, they're covering all possibilities as usual - mainly because it's a long range outlook.

jamo2oo9 · 17-12-2018 7:40pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

In other words, the Atlantic will dominate Ireland this winter. The earlier bullish talk of a cold spell from many quarters is losing momentum. I'm anticipating no snowfall this season in Clondalkin. Wet, mild and windy muck (not even an exciting windstorm likely). Very depressing.

I wouldn't write this winter off yet. Especially considering we're 17 days into the winter season... Plenty of time left for some cold to develop at some point. Some are suggesting a cold run in mid-January since we're expecting a SSW by New Years.

Reversal · 17-12-2018 8:37pm

Is that not the most positive and bullish UKMO long range outlook yet?

Even in the lead up the last March the language wasn't that bullish at that range.

Artane2002 · 17-12-2018 9:49pm

Reversal wrote: »

Is that not the most positive and bullish UKMO long range outlook yet?

Even in the lead up the last March the language wasn't that bullish at that range.

It doesn't sound quite as bullish as yesterday's but it's probably to stop the media from making up nonsense rather than less confidence. Watching people on other forums throwing their toys out of the pram over this update does make me feel a bit pessimistic even though I shouldn't be feeling this way.

Reversal · 17-12-2018 10:05pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

It doesn't sound quite as bullish as yesterday's but it's probably to stop the media from making up nonsense rather than less confidence. Watching people on other forums throwing their toys out of the pram over this update does make me feel a bit pessimistic even though I shouldn't be feeling this way.

It doesn't mention the word snow. But I actually think specifying an easterly airflow with showers along the East coast shows more confidence in a pattern rather than just saying colder with some snow.

sdanseo · 17-12-2018 10:16pm

Reversal wrote: »

It doesn't mention the word snow. But I actually think specifying an easterly airflow with showers along the East coast shows more confidence in a pattern rather than just saying colder with some snow.

Yes it does. It also suggests that Atlantic weather will "stay out in the Atlantic" and that "wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts".

If the cold comes far enough west, that means our east coast too.

In other words, cold air from the east and the Atlantic weather blocked out. Perfect.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Latest UK Met Office outlook:

However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:
In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

Clonmel1000 · 17-12-2018 10:17pm

It was 14 degrees on Saturday about 4 degrees less than an average summers day. Saying it’s going to cool down is hardly earth shattering.

Gonzo · 18-12-2018 12:31am

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

It was 14 degrees on Saturday about 4 degrees less than an average summers day. Saying it’s going to cool down is hardly earth shattering.

Tonight Ireland is the warmest country in Europe overall with temperatures of 12-13C nationwide. Right now the only places that are as warm as Ireland are the extreme southern fringes of Spain, north-west corner of France, south-west UK, Sicily and the southern fringes of Greece and Cyprus.

icesnowfrost · 18-12-2018 6:34am

Gonzo wrote: »

Tonight Ireland is the warmest country in Europe overall with temperatures of 12-13C nationwide. Right now the only places that are as warm as Ireland are the extreme southern fringes of Spain, north-west corner of France, south-west UK, Sicily and the southern fringes of Greece and Cyprus.

It’s actually cruel isn’t it. Nothing to get excited about for the next week or two.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 18-12-2018 8:18am

Little snowy old me wrote: »

In other words, the Atlantic will dominate Ireland this winter. The earlier bullish talk of a cold spell from many quarters is losing momentum. I'm anticipating no snowfall this season in Clondalkin. Wet, mild and windy muck (not even an exciting windstorm likely). Very depressing.

How did you get any of that from the met office long term forecast?

Anything that causes a slow down of Atlantic systems affects us as well as them.

KingdomRushed · 18-12-2018 8:22am

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

How did you get any of that from the met office long term forecast?

Anything that causes a slow down of Atlantic systems affects us as well as them.

Not necessarily. In many winters it has meant stalling frontal rain over Ireland with snow in England. In fact through the early noughties I’d say the ratio was 5 snow events in UK to each 1 in Ireland.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 18-12-2018 12:03pm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Not necessarily. In many winters it has meant stalling frontal rain over Ireland with snow in England. In fact through the early noughties I’d say the ratio was 5 snow events in UK to each 1 in Ireland.

We had something like that last week but it wasn’t a very big block over the U.K. and was blown away. What the Met office is signalling is much fewer Atlantic systems or none coming our way.

Hooter23 · 18-12-2018 12:04pm

Not much weather in the next week or two...but im sure it will make up for it once it really starts

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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