UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

mailburner · 20-02-2021 7:33pm

tinpib wrote: »

Bot quite value but with 3 heavyweight fights we might see some lads get starched, so some borderline value bets are Aspinell by KO at 4/5, he seems to have serious power and Arlovski's chin looked very suspect a year or 2 back, plus Father Time surely catching up with him.

I rarely back Arlovski against a striker like Aspinall and I often go for arlovski to get ko'd yet and usually lose money and since ngannou ko'd AA back in jan 2017 AA has been ko'd once in his next 11 fights going the distance with good strikers like sakai, harris, boser and tuivasa.

Everywhere I look it's Aspinall ko however

mailburner · 21-02-2021 1:04am

small bet on oleinik sub 11/4

double at around 14/1 with blaydes by ko round 2 or 3

Have my max bet now on blaydes by ko at 5/6+10/11

tinpib · 27-02-2021 9:54am

Big priced picks for tonight,

One such fight I had my eye on was the very cute but absolutely terrible Ashley Yoder taking on the gutsy Angela Hill. For some reason William Hill don't have prices, Hill is 1.25 and only 1.53 on pts on PP, damnit, still took the pts.

In the opening fight I thought both guys had roughly similar records, Jacoby wins on regional circuit but then loses in Bellator and in his earlier stint back at the dawn of time in UFC. His opponent Maxim Grishin missed weight by 4.5 pounds and is 6/4 and won by KO in his last UFC fight so that seems worth a punt to me.

Thought Pedro Munhoz might just edge his fight, happy to see him at 6/5

Bueno Silva at 2/1 to win on pts looks a nice price

In the co-main I thought Nikita Krylov was value at 5/2, no shame in losing a split to Teixera and also losing to Blachowicz. He also beat my fav hype train Johnny "Glass-Jaw" Walker in his last fight. His opponent has beaten Ion Cutelaba in his last fights who is probably my favourite guy to see getting knocked out. He always comes out trying to intimidate his opponent, looking ferocious, getting in their face as the fighters are announced, but he also has a glass jaw. Very satisfying.

In the main I thought Rosenstruik was good value, as we saw last week with Derek Lewis, one good punch can end a heavyweight fight. He is 19/10

eagle eye · 28-02-2021 1:39am

Really like Croom by stoppage at 11/4.
Munhoz decision 11/4
Silva decision 9/4
Ankalaev stoppage 4/5
And then I'm taking a gamble on Rosenstruik round 1 at 17/2.

tinpib · 28-02-2021 10:29am

eagle eye wrote: »

Munhoz decision 11/4

Good call on this, never even crossed my mind to check. Only checked now and Rivera is an absolute decision machine, looks a no-brainer bet in hindsight.

tinpib · 06-03-2021 3:10pm

Thread gone a bit quiet, all the shrewd punters probably wisely waiting to follow my big priced picks.....

Lots of them this week for some reason, all prices from PP:

Trevin Jones won his only UFC fight but was overturned due to the Devil's Lettuce, so 2.88 looks value.

Sean Brady is unbeaten but Jake Matthews at 2.75 is only 26 and with tons of UFC experience.

Kennedy Nzechukwu 2.88 lost to Paul Craig which isn't a great start, he has 2 UFC victories, this is only his opponents 4th ever fight and I can't help but think he is being rushed into UFC.

Neither lady are stone cold killers so Livinha Souza on pts on 4.33

Remember being a bit disappointed with Kai Kara France last time, his opponent Bontorin is 2.1

Thought Thiago Santos 2.38 was a great price, to my mind he won that split vs Jones, father time is catching up to him but was surprised to see him not fav

Drew Dober looks way too big at 4.0, perhaps a whiff of a hypetrain off his opponent.

Amanda Nunes is 1/12 is a big priced pick :pac::pac::pac: absolute joke having Anderson there, Nunes by Ko at 2.0 the play

Think Blachowicz is being overlooked, dude can KO almost anyone. Adesanya moving up against bigger guys so Blachowicz by KO at 4.5 is a great bet, it's prob the only way he wins it.\

edit: not a big priced pick but it took me a long time to get onto the Petr Yan train, think he wins tonight 1.8

d00mk1n · 06-03-2021 10:36pm

PP special:

Amanda Nunez & Izzy EVENS

Which is now leading me towards Polish Power

mailburner · 06-03-2021 11:37pm

askarov win
cruz kenny to go the distance
6/4

can't decide on yan or sterling, yan pts maybe but if sterling could get him down it could get interesting

might chance jan by ko also

mailburner · 07-03-2021 12:36am

sterling to land 120 or more signfiicant strikes 6/1
sterling to land 110 or more sig str 7/2
would sail in surely if this remains standing

he had 174+101 strikes in his last 2 pts wins which were 3 rounds

nunes to land 100 or more ss 5/2
124+79 in last 2 with 6+8 takedowns so a she might take anderson down, hard to see it not landing if stays standing
Betfred

nunes pts 5/1
sterling pts 7/2
rakic ko 9/4
askar pts 6/4
Jan ko 4/1

Mellor · 07-03-2021 11:56am

Had a accumulator on Islam, Nunes, Jan and Petyr Yan. Was pretty pissed at Yan for a silly DQ when he was cruising. But at least it wasn’t the last fight pending.

But logged on to account there, and see I was paid out. With the DQ labelled a void bet. Around half the original return. But free money really.
Normally wouldn’t aftertime, but just in case anyone else though they lost a bet that was actually paid out.

mailburner · 07-03-2021 2:33pm

great start to the night but nothing after
Sterling had 97 sig str so very likely that would have landed had it gone 5

always wonder what prices were after an event?
best prices were

jan pts 10/1
nunes sub 9/4
sterling ko/tko/disq 10/1
rakic pts 13/5

simongurnick · 07-03-2021 4:07pm

Mellor wrote: »

Had a accumulator on Islam, Nunes, Jan and Petyr Yan. Was pretty pissed at Yan for a silly DQ when he was cruising. But at least it wasn’t the last fight pending.

But logged on to account there, and see I was paid out. With the DQ labelled a void bet. Around half the original return. But free money really.
Normally wouldn’t aftertime, but just in case anyone else though they lost a bet that was actually paid out.

Nice one. Dq shouldn't be a void as it's a legit option for a fight finish. Fair play though

07-03-2021 4:20pm

Mellor wrote: »

Had a accumulator on Islam, Nunes, Jan and Petyr Yan. Was pretty pissed at Yan for a silly DQ when he was cruising. But at least it wasn’t the last fight pending.

But logged on to account there, and see I was paid out. With the DQ labelled a void bet. Around half the original return. But free money really.
Normally wouldn’t aftertime, but just in case anyone else though they lost a bet that was actually paid out.

Heh, I just checked there and I did 3 bets, in 2 of them I had 1 up but in the one I did Sterling I had him paired with Blachowicz by KO/TKO so got nothing back. :L

mailburner · 07-03-2021 9:10pm

Did anyone back Yan with paddy in a single or multiple bet and have the bet voided?

I backed sterling on pts there but got my money back but yan let a mate down for an accum which was pretty harsh.

tinpib · 08-03-2021 7:42am

I only do tiny stakes for the laugh, so hadn't checked my PP a/c, my Petr Yan win bet was a loser not voided.

tinpib · 13-03-2021 6:39pm

Went for a lot of decisions tonight for value:

De Paula evens
Courtney Casey 3.0
Darren Stewart 2.25
Matheus Nicloau 3.5
Dan Ige 2.5
Leon Edwards evens

And then Davey Grant regular vanilla single at 3.4, they have vaguely similar records, that price looks good.

mailburner · 13-03-2021 11:08pm

stewart and edwards for me at around 11/10 or throw in angela hill to make it around 7/4

steward because anders is not ufc standard and hasn't been for a long time, tough and thats about it.
That split loss to kevin holland looks pretty good now.

If edwards can't beat belal he may as well go to bellator, should outclass belal who isn't in leons league surely but is durable so this could go all the way.

angela hill beat yoder back in 2017, much better fighter now...yoder not so much

like pts on all three also but prices are crap on these

like kape also but maybe on pts at 10/3 lost to pantoja last time where he was simply too inactive...was pretty sore about the loss even if it was deserved so now he gets to make amends
Tucker pts also 12/5

tinpib · 20-03-2021 8:56am

Probably lots of excess capital after Cheltenham looking for a home in my big priced picks in a run of the mill UFC card:

JP Buys on pts 3.0, flyweight bouts often go to decision
Montel Jackson on pts 3.75, one of shortest priced fighters on card and at bantamweight I thought points at that price was worth it
Trevin Giles at evens, looks close on paper too
Macy Chiasson pts evens, Reneau looks totally past it at 43, lost to poor fighters recently
Kenan Song pts 6.0, looks a close fight to me, points seems a good bet at that price
Montserrat Ruiz pts 6.5, both girls are inexperienced, know nothing about them, went for the outsider on pts for the laugh

Brussels Sprout · 26-03-2021 1:42pm

Surprised to see that Stipe is a 5/4 underdog. Seems like he has NGannou's number based on their last fight. I dont' think NGannou has learned how to beat Stipe from K.O.'ing people in the first round.

tinpib · 27-03-2021 7:47am

Tonight's big priced picks:

Barriault has a lot of UFC losses, went with Azaitar at evens even though he hasn't foght in yonks.
Thought Jared Gooden at 2.88 was a good price.
Gillian Robertson on pts at 5.5, she looked good up until her last fight.
Like many people I think, I don't want to see either of Stipe/Francis lose, went for Stipe at 2.1. I backed him first time round at 2.5 when he schooled Francis derailing the hypetrain.

Not a big price but Woodley is a shadow of his former self, so went for Luque at 1.4

Only 10 fights tonight, a weak enough PPV card bar the main event.

mailburner · 27-03-2021 7:26pm

Luque pts 6/4 all I'm seeing so far
woodley not been finished in almost 9 yrs bar the injury last time and luque not been finished since 2013, should outwork woodley who can't be backed on recent showings

got badly burnt last time with ngannou against stipe, fancy him to come more prepared but the value is with stipe now
It's one fight I think I'll just be happy to watch

pp going 7/2 on o malley luque and stipe

hard to see past o malley and luque so looks like a decent price. It's a bs ehancement though (2/1 to 7/2) when a lot are around 3/1 but still worth taking imo

tinpib · 27-03-2021 8:10pm

Never even looked at Woodley/Luque's records, so took that pts bet, sounds good. As it gets closer to fight time I think I'll be cheering on Francis. Would love to see him win tonight and then take Jon Jones' head clean off his shoulders when they meet.

mailburner · 27-03-2021 8:49pm

if stipe manages to take francis down over and over again then the 9/2 stipe
pts will look huge

feel like I have to have a small bet on that rather than be kicking myself
tomorrow if it happens

I'd rather lose a small bet on stipe pts rather than the larger bet I had on the francis ko last time

mailburner · 27-03-2021 8:51pm

tinpib wrote: »

Never even looked at Woodley/Luque's records, so took that pts bet, sounds good. As it gets closer to fight time I think I'll be cheering on Francis. Would love to see him win tonight and then take Jon Jones' head clean off his shoulders when they meet.

it's funny my desire to see francis win was putting me off backing stipe

I've always thought stipe was the man to beat jones in the div though but the joy I'd get seeing francis ko jj would be up there with with bisping beating luke

SlowBlowin · 27-03-2021 9:48pm

I was all for backing Stipe, and most likely still will, but yesterday I saw that training footage of Francis and was blown away by his leg kicks. Fast and huge power. I wonder is this something new ? Not seen anything mentioned anywhere about his kicks, nor do I remember them in his previous fights.

d00mk1n · 28-03-2021 12:33am

Gone for a PP special, Francis to win by KO in round 2 or 3 7/2

I have huge respect for Stipe but if Ngannou makes the right adjustments it’s lights out for the HW Goat

28-03-2021 2:52am

Miranda Maverick (decision)
Suga Sean (win)
Luque (win)
Miocic (win)

10/1

SlowBlowin · 06-04-2021 9:58pm

The UFC 262 card is out of this world - Thinking about my bets now..

Rjd2 · 06-04-2021 11:50pm

SlowBlowin wrote: »

The UFC 262 card is out of this world - Thinking about my bets now..

The value on Chandler is gone now, was much bigger price when it opened.

Edwards at 2/7 or so seems v short v Nate, but I don't know how Edwards doesn't win.

Is Ferguson totally done? I like Dariush but levels etc and not sure he is close to the level of Justin and Oliviera aka the two guys who have just beaten Tony.

Brussels Sprout · 09-04-2021 12:33pm

I know it's not MMA but Ben Askren is fighting Jake Paul in a boxing match next week. From what I have seen of Askren, particularly in his match with Maia, his boxing is atrocious. In contrast Paul is a tidy enough boxer. Paul is however around 1.8-1.9 on Betfair. Seems like a really good price unless I am missing something?

mailburner · 10-04-2021 10:13am

That 4/5 looks like a gift to me.

tinpib · 10-04-2021 4:15pm

Early card today, first fight at 430pm. Best advice is to quickly pile into all my big priced picks without thinking:

Arnold Allen has a brillaint record, he can only beat what's put in front of him, so 2.2 looks value

John Makdessi is prob past it but maybe his experience will help here at 2.63

Surprised Mackensie Dern is not fav, took her on pts at 5.0

In the first fight I thought Palatnikov at 3.25 is worth a punt

Neither heavyweight looks great, Danho hasnt fought in 5 years but I don't think his opponent is super dooper, Danho at 3.4

mdwexford · 10-04-2021 5:06pm

Agree on Arnold Allen and Mackenzie Dern.
Was surprised both were slight underdogs.

mailburner · 10-04-2021 5:33pm

same for dern

I'm surprised she's not favourite

10-04-2021 6:47pm

Dern via sub 7/2?

10-04-2021 6:52pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Dern via sub 7/2?

I reckon dern gets her down and wins via sub or dern loses via decision.

Edit: I should have just edited my original comment above

10-04-2021 8:47pm

I took 25 on dern by sub

Whelo79 · 10-04-2021 9:53pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Dern via sub 7/2?

I would have put a huge amount of money on that if I'd seen it. I'm in Italy currently and I was trying to get on to Paddy Power earlier but it is blocked here

10-04-2021 9:57pm

Whelo79 wrote: »

I would have put a huge amount of money on that if I'd seen it. I'm in Italy currently and I was trying to get on to Paddy Power earlier but it is blocked here

Yeah the odds seemed very good. I was worried Dern might not be able to get it to the ground

mailburner · 14-04-2021 10:29am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I know it's not MMA but Ben Askren is fighting Jake Paul in a boxing match next week. From what I have seen of Askren, particularly in his match with Maia, his boxing is atrocious. In contrast Paul is a tidy enough boxer. Paul is however around 1.8-1.9 on Betfair. Seems like a really good price unless I am missing something?

Nothing bigger than 4/7 available now

I'm sorry I didn't keep a closer eye on the market

simongurnick · 14-04-2021 2:19pm

mailburner wrote: »

Nothing bigger than 4/7 available now

I'm sorry I didn't keep a closer eye on the market

I think Askren is the greatest bet of all time. His striking/boxing might be muck...but he isnt fighting a boxer.

ASOT · 14-04-2021 2:32pm

simongurnick wrote: »

I think Askren is the greatest bet of all time. His striking/boxing might be muck...but he isnt fighting a boxer.

I'm all over Askren myself.

SlowBlowin · 14-04-2021 5:08pm

I'm in the Jake Paul camp, I don't like him, but I have never been impressed by Askren's hands, he even looked clumsy in the sparring footage he released.

Did Dana place that 1 million in escrow for the bet ?

Fromvert · 14-04-2021 6:35pm

If we are just basing it on footage we've seen of each other sparring and hitting pads, Askren looks much worse, not an ounce of pop in his shots. But Askren should have the cardio and toughness advantage from years of high level wrestling and MMA but his body is also shot because of that.

Askren will need to get a hold of him and rough him up in the clinch, go to the body and wear him down. I wouldn't bet on it though but don't particularly like Askren's chances.

Mellor · 15-04-2021 2:49am

simongurnick wrote: »

I think Askren is the greatest bet of all time. His striking/boxing might be muck...but he isnt fighting a boxer.

One of them has professional boxing experience, it isn't Askren.

simongurnick · 15-04-2021 2:58am

Mellor wrote: »

One of them has professional boxing experience, it isn't Askren.

Being paid for a boxing exhibition doesnt make him a professional boxer. Fighting against another professional boxer would be a good starting point

Mellor · 15-04-2021 5:14am

simongurnick wrote: »

Being paid for a boxing exhibition doesnt make him a professional boxer. Fighting against another professional boxer would be a good starting point

Sure, he could absolutely go higher. But Askren is a out and out wrestler doing MMA. His striking is awful. I'd be more confident in maybe the entire WW/MW roster.

Askren is tougher. Has more experience fighting professional fighters. His cardio should be better, but who know since retirement.
Paul is bigger, training boxing specifically for longer, and is almost certainly on gear.

mailburner · 16-04-2021 3:35pm

surely it's likely these two will go the distance?

I mean whether it's jake paul on pts or askren pts which are 7/1+7/2 both
look like value
I mean Askren it tough but I'm not sure he's capable of finishing someone in
a boxing match and he's definitely tough enough to go 8 with paul so I think
paul might do enough early to get a pts win with maybe Ben finishing the stronger.

I took the 7/1 on Paul

weemcd · 16-04-2021 4:33pm

mailburner wrote: »

surely it's likely these two will go the distance?

I mean whether it's jake paul on pts or askren pts which are 7/1+7/2 both
look like value
I mean Askren it tough but I'm not sure he's capable of finishing someone in
a boxing match and he's definitely tough enough to go 8 with paul so I think
paul might do enough early to get a pts win with maybe Ben finishing the stronger.

I took the 7/1 on Paul

That's the best reasoning I've seen so far, 7-1 is a great price, not sure I'll touch this one though.

tinpib · 17-04-2021 1:17pm

Not a bad fight night card ahead, my big priced picks for the LOLZ:

Took Whitaker on pts in the main 2.38
Time catching up on Alhassan, so maybe his KO power isn't as much as it was, points is 5.5
Arlovski has outpointed lower calibre fighters recently, think this might be another one, 2.7 on pts
Didn't realise Jeremy Stpehens has had so many defeats, granted mainly against elite fighters but took Klose on pts 3.25
Lupita Godinez is waaayyy too short for someone so inexperienced, maybe Jessica Penne will use her experience to outpoint here even though she hasn't fought in yonks. 5.0

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Comments

UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING