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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #7232
    stefanovich
    Registered Users Posts: 5,490 ✭✭✭stefanovich


    landofthetree wrote: »
    Low paid workers in Ireland pay little tax.

    I know of people who are working single parents that pay negative tax.


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    #7233
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    fliball123 wrote: »

    True but if they have lost their job or one of them I reckon no bank would give them a mortgage while on Covid payments so they are effectively locked out of the market unless they are cash buyers

    The argument was that even when working they would not be in a position to buy property ,which obviously is not true .
    So the argument was low paid workers losing their jobs has no effect on the property market which is patently untrue


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    #7234
    HotMama89
    Registered Users Posts: 61 ✭✭HotMama89


    I think there is very little incentive for people to trade up as well for example HTB is only for first time buyer new builds so to trade up the same house is costing me 30k more than a ftb.

    People trading up are limited to second hand houses and there's no incentive for developers to builder bigger houses more suited to people trading up.

    In my area every new house built are mostly starter homes which are smaller than my own.


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    #7235
    random_banter
    Registered Users Posts: 614 ✭✭✭random_banter


    Shoden wrote: »
    My main point was that people whose income was not effected have been able to save hardcore for months as there's nothing else to do.

    Fully agree with this, there will be people with bigger deposits than planned at this stage.

    Personally I was already saving and when we were in our deepest "lockdown" Mar-Jun I definitely had lots of excess, which I used to pay down my debt so now I'm debt free too. However, for July/Aug/Sept my spending increased with increased availability of restaurants, staycationing (all on a reasonable budget of course). So on my salary anyway the heavy saving was definitely there Mar-Jun but my spending has returned to closer to where it was. There are definitely some things that we still save on - lunches etc as we are WFH, and our weekly shops are very well planned now so that also helps.

    TL;DR: The average mortgage saver probably put away a few extra thousand in Mar-Jun but maybe not as much extra since then, IMO.

    Edit: Of course, we also could have chosen to stay under "lockdown" conditions ourselves and not leave our home for months, not get any restaurant food, but it's been a terrible year and we're saving a good bit already so we want to enjoy living a little bit too where possible.


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    #7236
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    stefanovich wrote: »
    I know of people who are working single parents that pay negative tax.

    As are many civil servants:

    "Simon Coveney has said there could be as many people in his department on the Working Family Payment as in the whole of the Defence Forces."

    Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/coveney-many-civil-servants-in-my-department-are-on-family-income-top-up-like-members-of-defence-forces-39601376.html

    The question is how long the state can continue borrowing money to keep topping up wages and paying relatively high salaries to many of our civil and public sector workers.

    The state appears to have decided that housing costs should be alligned to the wages that are paid to the 229,957 people who work for multinationals in Ireland (most I would assume are already home owners). They then borrow money year in, year out to try provide similar salaries to the civil and public sector workers.

    It's an insane strategy that will (not probably) end in tears for the housing market.


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    #7237
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    brisan wrote: »
    The argument was that even when working they would not be in a position to buy property ,which obviously is not true .
    So the argument was low paid workers losing their jobs has no effect on the property market which is patently untrue

    I think the argument is this that low paid workers were the ones mostly hit as in put on covid payments therefore I don't think any bank will look at a worker on covid payments when trying to get a mortgage ergo any one on those payments looking to get a mortgage would be locked out of buying so it does have an impact on the property market on the demand side

    but the real questions to be asked are
    how long will that last ??
    How many low paid workers went looking for a mortgage??


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    #7238
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    HotMama89 wrote: »
    I think there is very little incentive for people to trade up as well for example HTB is only for first time buyer new builds so to trade up the same house is costing me 30k more than a ftb.

    People trading up are limited to second hand houses and there's no incentive for developers to builder bigger houses more suited to people trading up.

    In my area every new house built are mostly starter homes which are smaller than my own.

    Hows about being locked in a sh1tty apartment for the lockdown or a small house with no garden. While the budget gave them nothing you can bet a lot of people living in the the above conditions would of longed to trade up during lockdown and now we are looking at a potential lock down again. There will be people trading up without doubt over the next 12 months


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    #7239
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,210 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    brisan wrote: »
    The argument was that even when working they would not be in a position to buy property ,which obviously is not true .
    So the argument was low paid workers losing their jobs has no effect on the property market which is patently untrue

    It not that they do not have an effect but there effect is minimal. A couple with a combined income of 60k will get mortgage approval for 210k even with an exemption bringing them to 250 max they have little effect on the market. More than likely they are looking at social or affordable housing in Dublin.

    The reality is that it take a couple with a combined income 80k or above That are mostly in the house hunting market. Most people form relationships with in there own socio economic groups. The reality that a good porportion of people working in the hospitality industry are students.and foreign nationals. The owners of these businesses tend to be already established individuals who already have houses if there own.

    A lot within the hospitality industry are part time and only now are starting to be worse off on the PUP.

    If we take 70-80k as a base for mortgages that effect, yes there are some below that but not a substantial amount then you can should be able to understand why the market is fairly stable. Even a couple looking for a loan where one is on minimum pay means that the other must be on a wage if 50k+ minimum. This would be a fairly established professional with a bar wench as a partner. They would have met outside there socio-economic group and would not be that common to factor into the equation.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #7240
    Dwarf.Shortage
    Registered Users Posts: 1,256 ✭✭✭Dwarf.Shortage


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    It not that they do not have an effect but there effect is minimal. A couple with a combined income of 60k will get mortgage approval for 210k even with an exemption bringing them to 250 max they have little effect on the market. More than likely they are looking at social or affordable housing in Dublin.

    The reality is that it take a couple with a combined income 80k or above That are mostly in the house hunting market. Most people form relationships with in there own socio economic groups. The reality that a good porportion of people working in the hospitality industry are students.and foreign nationals. The owners of these businesses tend to be already established individuals who already have houses if there own.

    A lot within the hospitality industry are part time and only now are starting to be worse off on the PUP.

    If we take 70-80k as a base for mortgages that effect, yes there are some below that but not a substantial amount then you can should be able to understand why the market is fairly stable. Even a couple looking for a loan where one is on minimum pay means that the other must be on a wage if 50k+ minimum. This would be a fairly established professional with a bar wench as a partner. They would have met outside there socio-economic group and would not be that common to factor into the equation.

    She could be the high earning half either, it's not 1970.


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    #7241
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,210 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »
    She could be the high earning half either, it's not 1970.

    That even less likly, they could also be a same sex couple which would as likely as either of the other combinations.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #7242
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    The Journal have interpreted the data the other way to the Irish Times:


    Irish house prices rise again following slight decline during Covid-19 lockdown https://jrnl.ie/5232967


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    #7243
    Billythekid19
    Registered Users Posts: 166 ✭✭Billythekid19


    PropQueries wrote: »
    As are many civil servants:

    "Simon Coveney has said there could be as many people in his department on the Working Family Payment as in the whole of the Defence Forces."

    Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/coveney-many-civil-servants-in-my-department-are-on-family-income-top-up-like-members-of-defence-forces-39601376.html

    The question is how long the state can continue borrowing money to keep topping up wages and paying relatively high salaries to many of our civil and public sector workers.

    The state appears to have decided that housing costs should be alligned to the wages that are paid to the 229,957 people who work for multinationals in Ireland (most I would assume are already home owners). They then borrow money year in, year out to try provide similar salaries to the civil and public sector workers.

    It's an insane strategy that will (not probably) end in tears for the housing market.

    I dont see how it will end in tears. We are the only EU country that has a fluent English population, this coupled with our favourable tax rate is the main reason MNC's are happy to remain


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    #7244
    Balluba
    Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭Balluba


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    The Journal have interpreted the data the other way to the Irish Times:


    Irish house prices rise again following slight decline during Covid-19 lockdown https://jrnl.ie/5232967



    Muireann Duffy in the business section of Breakingnews.ie today goes with the headline:

    COVID 19 IMPACTING HOUSING MARKET AS PROPERTY PRICES FALL


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    #7245
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,210 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I would not call the house price index a 0.6%fall over 12 months a decrease in prices just as I would not call 0.1-0.2% rise in the last 3 months a rise in prices. This would be in the margin of error for house type and condition sales. My reading is the market is stable at present

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #7246
    Balluba
    Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭Balluba


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    I would not call the house price index a 0.6%fall over 12 months a decrease in prices just as I would not call 0.1-2% rise in the last 3 months a rise in prices. This would be in the margin of error for house type and condition sales. My reading is the market is stable at present


    There is a marked contrast though between the 0.6% fall over the last 12 months when compared with the 1.9% increase for the previous 12 months.


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    #7247
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,210 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Balluba wrote: »
    There is a marked contrast though between the 0.6% fall over the last 12 months when compared with the 1.9% increase for the previous 12 months.

    2.5%swing in 24 months and a pandemic lockdown in between. Prices stable or tending to very marginally grow over last 3 months since lockdown. Grow up.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #7248
    Balluba
    Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭Balluba


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    2.5%swing in 24 months and a pandemic lockdown in between. Prices stable or tending to very marginally grow over last 3 months since lockdown. Grow up.



    I find your ‘ grow up ‘ comment very insulting.


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    #7249
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    The Journal have interpreted the data the other way to the Irish Times:


    Irish house prices rise again following slight decline during Covid-19 lockdown https://jrnl.ie/5232967

    The Journal is also affiliated with Daft.ie.

    They've been flip-flopping on their reports the past few years, unable to settle on one particular data set to present. Quite dubious, particularly when you see they have also not published anything since the July 2020 report (published mid/late August).

    https://www.daft.ie/report


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    #7250
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    aren't the Daft reports generally a quarterly thing?


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    #7251
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,415 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    House prices are going to be affected by a recession as people put of decisions as they are unsure about future outcomes. All that the reports in the media point to is that there is sufficient demand in Ireland to keep prices at the level they are at (give 5% either way). Unless there is financial crash or an increase in supply this will not change.


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    #7252
    donnaille
    Registered Users Posts: 246 ✭✭donnaille


    Graham wrote: »
    aren't the Daft reports generally a quarterly thing?

    Yes, that's my understanding too.


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    #7253
    three putt
    Registered Users Posts: 27 ✭three putt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    That's true. A couple, both on the minimum wage in Ireland could very easily afford the monthly repayments on a 25 year mortgage for many standard three-bed semis outside the major cities. Assuming they could get mortgage approval.
    So property prices are not inflated?
    If a couple on the minimum wage in Ireland could easily afford a 3-bed semi.


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    #7254
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    Graham wrote: »
    aren't the Daft reports generally a quarterly thing?

    Have a look at the different ways they have reported in recent years. They did a quarterly report on purchasing and renting separately which was replaced with a joint housing report this year due to be published monthly (and was so published May, June and July). However, there has been neither a monthly housing report since the July report nor any other type of report in over 2 months.


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    #7255
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Sounds like they've gone back to quarterly


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    #7256
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    Graham wrote: »
    Sounds like they've gone back to quarterly

    I'm not sure as there would presumably be a Q2 report in that case.

    It's peculiar, particularly when they have been attempting with the monthly reports to present price increases in their reports on the data they have.


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    #7257
    nerrad01
    Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭nerrad01


    Balluba wrote: »
    There is a marked contrast though between the 0.6% fall over the last 12 months when compared with the 1.9% increase for the previous 12 months.

    come on you cant call that a marked contrast, all the pandemic has done is thankfully stop the prices continuing to rise, the housing market is an absolute disaster...but it was only going to get worse


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    #7258
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Timing belt wrote: »
    House prices are going to be affected by a recession as people put of decisions as they are unsure about future outcomes. All that the reports in the media point to is that there is sufficient demand in Ireland to keep prices at the level they are at (give 5% either way). Unless there is financial crash or an increase in supply this will not change.

    Well with the budget just passed there will be no crash for the next 6 to 12 months


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    #7259
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,100 ✭✭✭combat14


    house prices are almost back to crazy celtic tiger boom levels (only 18% off) and rents here are now insane..

    FF/FG will have to tackle this issue at some stage or the country faces a potential youth brain drain post covid 19 or else a massive renewed vote for SF next time out


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    #7260
    nerrad01
    Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭nerrad01


    combat14 wrote: »
    house prices are almost back to crazy celtic tiger boom levels (only 18% off) and rents here are now insane..

    FF/FG will have to tackle this issue at some stage or the country faces a potential youth brain drain post covid 19 or else a massive renewed vote for SF next time out


    Not a chance this will happen, they have had the guts of 10 years to do this and have in fact made the situation worse


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    #7261
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,843 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    combat14 wrote: »
    house prices are almost back to crazy celtic tiger boom levels (only 18% off) and rents here are now insane..

    FF/FG will have to tackle this issue at some stage or the country faces a potential youth brain drain post covid 19 or else a massive renewed vote for SF next time out

    If a "socially progressive" party emerge, economically conservative that will reward workers on income taxes and housing, god help fg in particular! Anyway, look at the lack of housing output and how much is going to social housing. If sf would have won most seats last time round if they fielded more candidates, 2-3 years more of the housing farce? Lol!
    And its fg driving the change. Channeling all the money at wasters and deserting their younger vote. The chickens are going to come home to roost!


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