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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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    #32
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    Sweden have been lauded on here by some however there approach of do nothing and ignore is almost criminal.

    Even the PM has now admitted they havent done enough

    "Throughout the pandemic, Sweden's response to the coronavirus has been an odd one out. Unlike most of Europe, it did not introduce a lockdown - cafes and restaurants remain open, and schools have not closed. Although the government advised against non-essential travel, it has largely been business as usual, albeit a bit quieter.

    Now Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has has admitted that Sweden was not properly prepared for the pandemic and that it is "obvious that country has not done enough". Restaurants not observing social distancing should be shut, he told Swedish broadcaster SVT.

    In Sweden, 870 people have died from the virus - many more than neighbours Denmark (247) and Norway (113), where lockdowns were introduced in early March."

    2 friends of mine told me outside of the capital some communities have introduced their own social distancing policies in shops etc to try and do something about this and there is a lot of unhappiness among the Swedish population with the governments approach


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    #33
    Salary Negotiator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭Salary Negotiator


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    probably end up with similar amount of deaths just over a shorter time frame

    That’s seems unlikely and suggests that efforts to increase HD and ICU capacity will have no effect on numbers that survive the illness.


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    #34
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users Posts: 5,155 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Salary Negotiator wrote: »
    That’s seems unlikely and suggests that efforts to increase HD and ICU capacity will have no effect on numbers that survive the illness.

    I read somewhere that the survival rate for those who have to go on ventilators is 1 in 3 .So while it will make a substantial difference it's not as much as some might think.


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    #35
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 75,290 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    Memnoch wrote: »
    That total is not realiable either. ONS listed only 20 extra deaths. At the same time a care home executive is quoted as estimating around 1000 in their private network.

    The Conservative government were caught off guard by the ONS at the outset but have likely corralled it since so it doesn't make a mockery of their numbers.
    I suspect when this is all over and they do a proper review all countries will be adding significant numbers to what they are reporting now

    However I think a lot of this is down to the WHO attempting to standardise "real-time" reporting as in the last pandemic there was a lot more inconsistency than we are seeing now. Hence the "official" figures in pretty much all cases only include those who have tested positive.


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    #36
    accensi0n
    Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    I heard they're only admitting business owners and those paying huge amounts of tax into ICU.


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    #37
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 40,993 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Sweden has approx 20% more confirmed cases as Ireland, yet has almost 200% more deaths.

    If ANYONE thinks that the actions they took were the proper ones then you need to take a long look at yourself and how you value life.


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    #38
    md23040
    Registered Users Posts: 479 ✭✭md23040


    I heard the State epidemiologist Anders Tegnellthe interviewed and he described Imperial College report as being highly flawed and Sweden has followed its own modelling. It will be interesting to see how Sweden develops in terms of this outbreak but so far based on the IC report and its modelling assertions Sweden should be a lot worse at this stage than it actually is.

    There are pockets of Stockholm will higher proportion of virus outbreak within ethnic areas with speculation of primary cause being many not having standard inoculations as infants. Again it will be interesting to note the contagion data in Sweden if it continues its strategy, as in September without a proper antidote there will most likely be a second wave to contend with throughout the EU etc.


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    #39
    Memnoch
    Registered Users Posts: 4,276 ✭✭✭Memnoch


    Beasty wrote: »
    I suspect when this is all over and they do a proper review all countries will be adding significant numbers to what they are reporting now

    However I think a lot of this is down to the WHO attempting to standardise "real-time" reporting as in the last pandemic there was a lot more inconsistency than we are seeing now. Hence the "official" figures in pretty much all cases only include those who have tested positive.

    I'm not sure I agree. At the very first hurdle, the huge amount of inconsistency in testing makes it much more challenging to compare outcomes.

    I would submit that where governments have acted negligently and are now severely under testing it will not be in their own interest to accurately update the data. There may be a genuine case to be made for criminal negligence on the part of some of these politicians so we cannot rely on them to tell the truth.

    I think there is a clear distinction where countries are being open about their figures and including community fatalities. Coincidentally, these also tend to be countries that are testing extensively.

    Nothing to hide, as it were.


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    #40
    Greentopia
    Registered Users Posts: 3,221 ✭✭✭Greentopia


    md23040 wrote: »
    I heard the State epidemiologist Anders Tegnellthe interviewed and he described Imperial College report as being highly flawed and Sweden has followed its own modelling. It will be interesting to see how Sweden develops in terms of this outbreak but so far based on the IC report and its modelling assertions Sweden should be a lot worse at this stage than it actually is.

    There are pockets of Stockholm will higher proportion of virus outbreak within ethnic areas with speculation of primary cause being many not having standard inoculations as infants. Again it will be interesting to note the contagion data in Sweden if it continues its strategy, as in September without a proper antidote there will most likely be a second wave to contend with throughout the EU etc.

    Är du Svensk?
    I hate to say it, but I suspect they didn't take it seriously when the initial number of deaths were "only" in multigenerational immigrant mostly Somali families in the poorer suburbs of Stockholm.

    I can see the logic of their approach though for their country and think they'll get though it without anything like the number of deaths in Italy and Spain. Stockholm is already levelling off according to SVT news yesterday.


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    #41
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Sweden (especially Stockholm) is not the most sociable place and inter-generational living is rare -> you certainly don't have grannies and their grand-children living under one roof like can be still fairly common in Italy or even parents and adult children which is very common

    There is also a lot respect for government guidelines in Sweden e.g. respecting space unlike again Italy where it was too late before people copped on and the draconian measures had to be implemented.

    Cultural factors like this can have a big effect in such circumstances


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    #42
    suicide_circus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,802 ✭✭✭✭suicide_circus


    Sweden has a history of massaging figures for media consumption


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    #43
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'd sooner do as we are here. In 3 weeks maybe let non essential work resume. Social distancing mandatory & older folk still more or less cocooning.

    Life is precious, we should do all we can to save those at risk from covid19.


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    #44
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    suicide_circus wrote: »
    Sweden has a history of massaging figures for media consumption

    Indeed.... Rape etc


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    #45
    metricspaces
    Registered Users Posts: 793 ✭✭✭metricspaces


    Clark Dry Kidney wrote: »
    Actually this is the exact approach being taken here, you do realise if you catch coronavirus as a resident in a nursing home that you're not going to be taken to hospital?

    Most of our deaths have been in nursing homes and not in ICU because nursing home residents are not being admitted to hospital. They are receiving care on site in the nursing home.

    Terribly sad state of affairs but that's what's been happening for the last few weeks.

    Ok. I guess you know better and the Dept of Health lied yesterday when they said that people who needed ICU were not being denied based on age. Never let the facts get in the way of a good drama or conspiracy theory.


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    #46
    Dj Stiggie
    Registered Users Posts: 619 ✭✭✭Dj Stiggie


    I live in Denmark so Sweden's approach has been in the news a lot. Usually Danes are very untrusting of the government and prefer minimal involvement (by Northern European standards) and Swedes are more accepting of the Nanny State. This time though, it's the opposite.

    Two weeks ago the media here and in Sweden were saying that Easter will be the time that we see who has the right approach as many people will be traveling, and a lot of Sweden has been unaffected as it's so spread out. Since then though their death rate has soared and we're reopening primary schools and some businesses on Wednesday. Also, Denmark has over 1,000 respirators available, with just over 150 being used. I know whose approach I'm happier with.


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    #47
    metricspaces
    Registered Users Posts: 793 ✭✭✭metricspaces


    accensi0n wrote: »
    I heard they're only admitting business owners and those paying huge amounts of tax into ICU.

    Thank God I kept paying my tax into ICU, I was nearly going to give it up during last recession. I should be good so.


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    #48
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Beasty wrote: »
    I suspect that in many other countries those in nursing homes testing positive would have been moved to hospital

    We are only including those who have tested positive. Holohan made that very clear yesterday

    The UK now has a separate total including those who have not tested positive but where it's included as a factor on a death certificate. It takes longer for these figures to come through though

    Serious questions need to be asked. Unfortunately as long as the politicians are hiding behind Holohan that isn’t going to happen.


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    #49
    Diarmuid
    Registered Users Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    I read somewhere that the survival rate for those who have to go on ventilators is 1 in 3 .So while it will make a substantial difference it's not as much as some might think.

    In NY, 80% of covid19 patients on ventilators are dying . They are even starting to consider if it's making the patient worse


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    #50
    metricspaces
    Registered Users Posts: 793 ✭✭✭metricspaces


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Sweden has approx 20% more confirmed cases as Ireland, yet has almost 200% more deaths.

    If ANYONE thinks that the actions they took were the proper ones then you need to take a long look at yourself and how you value life.

    Since when was 88 200% of 58? I suppose the truth of 52% doesn't sound as dramatic. Nevermind it's just looking at a snapshot in time, where that time is different for both. Rendering comparison meaningless.


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    #51
    niallo27
    Registered Users Posts: 16,002 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Question for people though, the fact that Sweden hasnt locked down shouldnt they have thousands dead by now. Any model we have seen shows massive eath rates if nothing is done why hasnt this materialized in sweden.


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    #52
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 40,993 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    metricspaces wrote: »
    Since when was 88 200% of 58? I suppose the truth of 52% doesn't sound as dramatic. Nevermind it's just looking at a snapshot in time, where that time is different for both. Rendering comparison meaningless.

    Perhaps you should read what I said to the point of understanding.... and then at least compare the right two figures.

    Edit: if you need spoonfeeding...

    887 is more than 200% more than 287


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    #53
    metricspaces
    Registered Users Posts: 793 ✭✭✭metricspaces


    Models also show that introducing measures like social distancing, lockdown etc. spread out the curve. Hence comparing two countries at a single point in time, before the event is over for both, where both countries have taken a different approach is meaningless if you're interested in facts. But I guess it's fun if you like to create drama.


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    #54
    metricspaces
    Registered Users Posts: 793 ✭✭✭metricspaces


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Perhaps you should read what I said to the point of understanding.... and then at least compare the right two figures.

    I did. Your analysis was meaningless and invalid. Enlighten us all if you feel it was otherwise.


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    #55
    niallo27
    Registered Users Posts: 16,002 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    metricspaces wrote: »
    Models also show that introducing measures like social distancing, lockdown etc. spread out the curve. Hence comparing two countries at a single point in time, before the event is over for both, where both countries have taken a different approach is meaningless if you're interested in facts. But I guess it's fun if you like to create drama.

    Exactly and if you are to compare them now, then there should be massive differences but if you compare Denmark to Sweden it's not showing.


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    #56
    tayto lover
    Registered Users Posts: 51,485 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    niallo27 wrote: »
    We are just delaying the inevitable here, we will all end up going this way. People really need to get their heads out of the sand.

    Would you agree with that if you were 80?


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    #57
    metricspaces
    Registered Users Posts: 793 ✭✭✭metricspaces


    sydthebeat wrote: »

    887 is more than 200% more than 287

    My bad. I didn't realise Sweden and Ireland had the same population. Dept. of Health should get you on board to help with the analysis. At least we'd have a good old laugh each evening when figures are reported.


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    #58
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 40,993 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    metricspaces wrote: »
    I did. Your analysis was meaningless and invalid. Enlighten us all if you feel it was otherwise.

    You said my figures were wrong, up to you to prove it then.

    I've edited my post above to show you the very simple maths involved. Show me where I am wrong please?


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    #59
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 40,993 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    metricspaces wrote: »
    My bad. I didn't realise Sweden and Ireland had the same population. Dept. of Health should get you on board to help with the analysis. At least we'd have a good old laugh each evening when figures are reported.

    Where did i say they had the same population??
    If your going to debate with me at least challenge me on what I say, not what you make up...

    My point is Competely valid...
    Sweden has 20% more confirmed cases than Ireland, yet has more than 200% more deaths

    They obviously and evidently have not taken a better approach than we have.

    Also, for our smaller population, we are also testing over 100% more per capita than they are..


    Are they still taking the right approach???


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    #60
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    tayto lover wrote: »
    Would you agree with that if you were 80?

    say you are eighty and living alone or with your parneter, just say elderly and this would make up the majority of this age group, you sould be cocooning now anway, what difference does it make to you, if you dont have to come into contact with others by choice, what those other people are doing?


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    #61
    niallo27
    Registered Users Posts: 16,002 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    tayto lover wrote: »
    Would you agree with that if you were 80?

    If I was 80 I'd like to know what the plan is after May.


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