Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Loughc · 19-01-2019 3:48pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Could anyone tell me what is meant by “lamp post watching”?

Staring at the light from the lamppost at night to see if it’s snowing.

KingJeremy · 19-01-2019 3:52pm

Thanks sryan & loughc - I thought as much but with all the technical talk on this thread I thought I may have been missing something! I’m definitely a lamppost watcher in that case & suspect a high percentage on this thread are too.

pad199207 · 19-01-2019 3:54pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Could anyone tell me what is meant by “lamp post watching”?

It’s an activity that only the most maddest of us partakes in.

SleetAndSnow · 19-01-2019 3:54pm

Aka how I spent the entirety of the end of last feb/start of march.

pad199207 · 19-01-2019 3:55pm

Right it’s coming up to 3pm. God help us from here on out.

Billcarson · 19-01-2019 3:58pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Could anyone tell me what is meant by “lamp post watching”?

Looking at your nearest lamp post beside your house to see if you can see any snow flakes falling at night time and checking it regularly.

Billcarson · 19-01-2019 4:05pm

Billcarson wrote: »

KingJeremy wrote: »

Could anyone tell me what is meant by “lamp post watching”?

Looking at your nearest lamp post beside your house to see if you can see any snow flakes falling at night time and checking it regularly.

Or for the more extreme get the binoculars out and look near the light or the lights further down the road. Lol

irishrover99 · 19-01-2019 4:18pm

Beautiful calm day out. 2 hour walk around Marley park with the kids which I enjoyed more than a summer walk.
Perhaps because you usually get many days like this in January.

Gonzo · 19-01-2019 4:20pm

I think the way this will go is we will miss out on the cold by about 200-350 miles over the next 7 to 10 days. From the Netherlands to Eastern Spain and eastwards is likely to see a substantial and severe cold spell developing over the coming week.

Atlantic air will most likely move in from next Wednesday keeping Ireland and most, if not all of the UK under a relatively mild theme with high pressure keeping us quite dry for a few days. No man's land between the freezer of Europe and the very mild out in the Atlantic.

There is still a chance of Ireland and the UK tapping into cold around the 1st or 2nd week of February.

I really hope I am proven wrong by this and that we get do actually get some proper cold within the next week.

SleetAndSnow · 19-01-2019 4:26pm

just a question, What is this Shannon and Entropy thing everybody keeps mentioning

m17 · 19-01-2019 4:33pm

Lofer Austria the church is covered in snow

Charles Babbage · 19-01-2019 4:39pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Could anyone tell me what is meant by “lamp post watching”?

When there is feck all snow, you can sometimes see the flakes falling by watching a street light.

Buffalobill29 · 19-01-2019 4:57pm

How many more of you are going to tell him what lamp post watching is? I think the lad gets what it means by now.ðŸ˜

pad199207 · 19-01-2019 5:02pm

Hmmmm

Even though it’s not showing what we want to see, the ICON deserves a round of applause.

It’s hard to think of a huge backtrack to cold from here I’m afraid

Perhaps though this could be just the first bite of the cherry

KingJeremy · 19-01-2019 5:02pm

Buffalobill29 wrote: »

How many more of you are going to tell him what lamp post watching is? I think the lad gets what it means by now.ðŸ˜

Haha BuffaloBill! I do appreciate all the responses lads. Maybe it’s a distraction from discussing the sh*tty chart runs?

sryanbruen · 19-01-2019 5:05pm

Very flat northwesterly on the UKMO, downgrade.
Poor ICON, downgrade.

Not a great start to the 12zs.

Villain · 19-01-2019 5:07pm

Yep I think UKMO has started tapping on the nails for this spell.

screamer · 19-01-2019 5:12pm

I’m keeping the faith..... winter is coming....John snow

pad199207 · 19-01-2019 5:15pm

The reactions on Netweather show that this could possible beat ‘That ECM’ in 2012 in terms of let downs.

You could imagine the chaos if the ECM brings out a Boom of a run later

snowstorm445 · 19-01-2019 5:26pm

pad199207 wrote: »

The reactions on Netweather show that this could possible beat ‘That ECM’ in 2012 in terms of let downs.

You could imagine the chaos if the ECM brings out a Boom of a run later

In fairness one of the posters on netweather was spot on, (winter) easterlies in this part of the world are so rare and out of the ordinary that the moment a rogue model suggests a mild solution it always wins out in the end, no matter how much background support exists or the numbers of models against it. If there is disagreement of any kind it will mean a failed easterly. The wintry solutions never win out in those sorts of situations.

People were mentioning the run up to 2010 and 2018 before and claiming that there was disagreement then, I can’t speak for 2010 but 2018 had absolutely solid support from across the models from about a week out, no fluctuations from mild to cold, or different solutions or anything like that.

It’s gotten to the stage now where even if a minor model suggests a mild solution then we can assume the easterly is doomed.

sdanseo · 19-01-2019 5:32pm

12Z GFS a bit of a car crash. We'd be sunbathing next week.

Trend staring to look a bit more worrisome with all the 12Z runs pretty consistent.

snowstorm445 · 19-01-2019 5:35pm

pad199207 wrote: »

The reactions on Netweather show that this could possible beat ‘That ECM’ in 2012 in terms of let downs.

You could imagine the chaos if the ECM brings out a Boom of a run later

I do agree with you though, there’s a pattern with Netweather posters that seems to go like:

Easterly on the way -> ECM disagrees, “it’s just one run” -> One model that still supports cold becomes the best rated model -> All models go mild, trying to salvage the situation “there’s still potential/all to play for etc” -> Admitting it’s failed, “We were lead up the garden path”. Until the next batch of cold models pop up again.

Also if one model is showing mild vs the rest it can be binned, whereas if one is showing cold and the rest aren’t it’s “onto something”. :P

SleetAndSnow · 19-01-2019 6:03pm

Very heavy drizzle in cork city all of a sudden, visablity reduced a lot and you'd get soaked if you are outside in it

Gonzo · 19-01-2019 6:19pm

that latest GFS really is a stinker. Going by today's models, January is certainly going to finish milder than average.

The UK forecasts for a slightly cooler than average winter look in tatters now unless February brings brutal cold lasting for the entire month.

squarecircles · 19-01-2019 6:31pm

mild,moist evening in west mayo,birds chirping,the daffodils and marigolds might survive into february.

really was a pathetic winter.

Gonzo · 19-01-2019 6:33pm

What's very surprising is today, the NAO is forecast to go negative in the final days of January. This could impact things back in our favour.

nao.sprd2.gif

TheMilkyPirate · 19-01-2019 6:34pm

12Z GFS is hilariously bad. We can forget about cold and snow in January that much is certain now but who knows maybe February will deliver for us.

esposito · 19-01-2019 6:38pm

squarecircles wrote: »

mild,moist evening in west mayo,birds chirping,the daffodils and marigolds might survive into february.

really was a pathetic winter.

Was? It ain’t over by a long shot. February can often deliver.

But yes so far this winter has been pathetic and very disappointing after so much promise. Let’s see what Feb brings

Reckless Abandonment · 19-01-2019 6:55pm

My money is on ECM to go cold again. Really hope so...

Gonzo · 19-01-2019 6:58pm

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

My money is on ECM to go cold again. Really hope so...

with the NAO forecast to go negative there is that chance

An Ri rua · 19-01-2019 7:00pm

esposito wrote: »

squarecircles wrote: »

mild,moist evening in west mayo,birds chirping,the daffodils and marigolds might survive into february.

really was a pathetic winter.

Was? It ain’t over by a long shot. February can often deliver.

But yes so far this winter has been pathetic and very disappointing after so much promise. Let’s see what Feb brings

In Ireland, it ain't over til the mini -Kermits seek new pastures, and they're not even a twinkle in Kermie's eye yet..

Billcarson · 19-01-2019 7:07pm

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

My money is on ECM to go cold again. Really hope so...

That would be a Tyson fury job lol. Down and out but somehow gets back up off the canvas ,if that happens.

Andrew00 · 19-01-2019 7:17pm

Well that’s that then.

What a s*ite winter. Even if there is a small bit of cold weather it won’t come for another few weeks. Sure thats no good. We wanted snow for next week now it’s looking milder than average

Gaoth Laidir · 19-01-2019 7:20pm

Gonzo wrote: »

What's very surprising is today, the NAO is forecast to go negative in the final days of January. This could impact things back in our favour.

That's just because of the amplification of the Azores ridge northwards, but it doesn't get too far.

Lucreto · 19-01-2019 7:21pm

May be the weather charts are holding back until the return of the frog.

Once he returns everything will begin to fall into place.

Reckless Abandonment · 19-01-2019 7:23pm

Early stages look better, lets see where this goes

Reckless Abandonment · 19-01-2019 8:00pm

And we finish with this our own piece of the vortex

SeaBreezes · 19-01-2019 8:06pm

Oh my good god I'm not able....

Rebelbrowser · 19-01-2019 8:08pm

Next Tuesday seems to have -8s over nearly the whole country too. A standalone "event" like that would usually have its own thread by now.

SeaBreezes · 19-01-2019 8:10pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Next Tuesday seems to have -8s over nearly the whole country too. A standalone "event" like that would usually have its own thread by now.

Waiting for Kermit ..

mickger844posts · 19-01-2019 8:18pm

I just laughed out loud at the ECM. Talk about a roller coaster. Proves that everything is still on the table. Tuesday looking interesting to say the least

JCX BXC · 19-01-2019 8:21pm

That is an interesting ECM. Nothing more to say about that!

The fact that the models are still so all over the place tells us only one thing, we simply don't know whether it'll stay mild or get cold!

sryanbruen · 19-01-2019 8:24pm

All I'll say is that there was more "freezing runs" in this evening's GEFS than I've seen since this rollercoaster began. However, the models continue to be all over the place no matter which way you put or look at it.

Harry Palmr · 19-01-2019 8:27pm

It's a glancing blow at most as far as I can tell. No doubt Met Eirann will issue some yellow warnings that annoy everyone!

RobertKK · 19-01-2019 8:33pm

I'm just lamppost watching...snow in Finland...

https://www.datapartner.fi/fi/web-kamera

YanSno · 19-01-2019 8:40pm

Nothing out of the ordinary for the next 10 days. Tuesday and Wednesday looks wintry after that Hp take charge for a day or 2 then basically zonal. I still think there is possibilities of an Icelandic hp, could be last few days in January / first week of February

irishrover99 · 19-01-2019 8:46pm

I have to hand it to the lot of you’s.
The most optimistic bunch I’ve ever seen online ðŸ˜€ðŸ˜€

Andrew00 · 19-01-2019 8:49pm

irishrover99 wrote: »

I have to hand it to the lot of you’s.
The most optimistic bunch I’ve ever seen online ðŸ˜€ðŸ˜€

There’s nothing really to be positive about, I don’t know why they’re so optimistic. They’re now posting charts with cold weather on them for 3 weeks time, which by then will turn into Atlantic crap

JanuarySnowstor · 19-01-2019 8:49pm

In kermits absence just opened a thread for Tuesday

Gonzo · 19-01-2019 8:54pm

still looking cold on Tuesday and into Wednesday, after that it turns milder then a colder trend starts again.

gefsens850Dublin0.png?w=800&h=600&mode=stretch&quality=40&colors=128&cb=2019011945

gefsens850Dublin0.png?w=800&h=600&mode=stretch&quality=40&colors=128&cb=2019011945

Still potential for snow on Tuesday for some:

12_75_preciptype.png?cb=802

Temps look ok for snow in places, probably more marginal along eastern coastal counties:

12_75_uk2mtmpmin.png?cb=802

Dew Points just about under 0C, so could be a close one.

12_69_ukdp.png?cb=680

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Comments