Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

igCorcaigh · 13-06-2020 1:01am

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Looks like Cork City has a small enough chance of sparks, not the highest though. Mostly north cork and west cork see the biggest changes of sparks

Once again. But I have hope! Looking forward to exciting weather this weekend, if only pics!

Water John · 13-06-2020 1:03am

You're welcome to WC if the noise and light show is out here. Go storm chasing.

SleetAndSnow · 13-06-2020 1:05am

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Once again. But I have hope! Looking forward to exciting weather this weekend, if only pics!

Might just have to play my videos from the 2018 one in the background and hope it makes up for the lack of thunder as I look out at the rain! :P

Danno · 13-06-2020 11:43am

Quite clammy here in South Laois and the sun is breaking through. Clouds are bubbling up high.

Meteorite58 · 13-06-2020 12:05pm

Another area showing up with potential is around Waterford late tonight/ early Sunday morning. Should get heavy rain going through, might become electrified.

ECM showing around Kerry, W Cork and W Limerick with huge CAPE readings of 1337 j/kg tomorrow , Li -4

Nice convergence and orographic lift should produce big storms with huge localized rainfall and possible hail.

Skew T for an area near Ballydesmond on the Kerry / Cork Border tomorrow .

Gaoth Laidir · 13-06-2020 12:20pm

None of the airport TAFs has a mention of thunderstorms from now till 12Z tomorrow (excluding Knock, which is closed and iss not being issued TAFs).

The aviation chart for 12Z today shows an area encompassing England, Wales and northwestern France, with a trough lying across southwestern Wales and moving northwestwards at around 10 knots. In this area weather is described as occasional heavy rain showers/thunderstorms, embedded in fronts and troughs. Wexford and Waterford would be first to get this trough later today, however so far no lightning is showing up at all.

squarecircles · 13-06-2020 12:32pm

the hierarchy of terminology in forecasting thunderstorms in ireland.

intense thunderstorms
isolated thunderstorms
heavy thundery rain
thundery bursts of rain

chance of thunder
slight risk of thunder
nothing.

ZX7R · 13-06-2020 12:54pm

squarecircles wrote: »

the hierarchy of terminology in forecasting thunderstorms in ireland.

intense thunderstorms
isolated thunderstorms
heavy thundery rain
thundery bursts of rain

chance of thunder
slight risk of thunder
nothing.

And we usually end up with
Nothing....

Gonzo · 13-06-2020 1:11pm

if the GFS is correct things don't really kick off till this evening, but overall the risk looks downgraded somewhat, particularly tomorrow.

This evening:
12-505UK.GIF?13-6

Sunday:

Tuesday:

Say my name · 13-06-2020 1:18pm

Looking at the radar and sat24. It looks like we might actually get some Welsh imports in wexford later on.

Say my name · 13-06-2020 1:42pm

And looking out the door. Cumulus nimbus are building up nicely along the Blackstairs up to the Wicklow mts.

Mortelaro · 13-06-2020 3:15pm

I see the stuff on the Wicklow mountains
It's a very weak effort though
The heat energy is really not there for much convergence
In my experience too,northeaserly's in summer tend to de electrify welsh imports aswell as throw them off course for the fishes

Have had oceans of rain here in Arklow past few days so happy enough I'd expect

Spencer Brown · 13-06-2020 3:43pm

Some ominous looking clouds starting to bubble up now in East Cork

Tony H · 13-06-2020 4:00pm

Fairly nice claps of thunder over Cobh at the moment no lightning

xabi · 13-06-2020 4:01pm

Big rumble in Cork City

Say my name · 13-06-2020 4:05pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

I see the stuff on the Wicklow mountains
It's a very weak effort though
The heat energy is really not there for much convergence
In my experience too,northeaserly's in summer tend to de electrify welsh imports aswell as throw them off course for the fishes

Have had oceans of rain here in Arklow past few days so happy enough I'd expect

I was going to say look southeast at that dark sky but that I didn't think they'd be any sparks.
But with the last few posts..??

Anyway.. Gwan Cork.!!

SleetAndSnow · 13-06-2020 4:11pm

Rumble of thunder cork city now. Probs the last of it! Haha edit: or not

Mortelaro · 13-06-2020 4:13pm

Say my name wrote: »

I was going to say look southeast at that dark sky but that I didn't think they'd be any sparks.
But with the last few posts..??

Anyway.. Gwan Cork.!!

Yeah it's a northeast flow
So that would veer showers away from the east coast if they originate in mid or south wales
But it's enough to get convergence going over cork
Colder air meeting warmer air

Tony H · 13-06-2020 4:14pm

https://photos.app.goo.gl/YiapzqWoCRjHqvnK7

Just now

PukkaStukka · 13-06-2020 4:17pm

Power cut reported near the location of that Cork storm

SleetAndSnow · 13-06-2020 4:19pm

Seems to be getting closer to me, rain is picking up. These are some long rumbles.

Edit: pelting down now but rumbles seek to have stopped.

Say my name · 13-06-2020 4:20pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

Yeah it's a northeast flow
So that would veer showers away from the east coast if they originate in mid or south wales
But it's enough to get convergence going over cork
Colder air meeting warmer air

Is that low over Cornwall heading this way?
Seems to be edging this way?
Few sparks in that too.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-06-2020 4:24pm

Some development off southeast Angelsey now, yet to spark but could be interest for south Dublin, north Wicklow in the next couple of hours.

Meteorite58 · 13-06-2020 4:25pm

Have we got ignition ?

titan18 · 13-06-2020 4:26pm

We've had flashes of it in Cork and the skies have opened and the rain is bucketing down. Some of the strongest rain I've ever seen there for a few minute period

Meteorite58 · 13-06-2020 4:27pm

Nice line of convection getting going along Southern coasts

SleetAndSnow · 13-06-2020 4:28pm

Bucketing down in cork city. Thunder is gone but this is definitely the heaviest rain I've seen in months.

Edit:Gutters overflowing like madz huge puddles already, floods already. Holy this is a really heavy downpour

Flimsy_Boat · 13-06-2020 4:33pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Bucketing down in cork city. Thunder is gone but this is definitely the heaviest rain I've seen in months.

Edit:Gutters overflowing like madz huge puddles already, floods already. Holy this is a really heavy downpour

Having just moved into an old top floor attic conversion, I thought the loud rain was just me. It's nice when you have candles lit and a warm blanket.

Still, I'm very annoyed at the weather here since 1st of June.

RobertKK · 13-06-2020 4:34pm

Thunder in North Kilkenny.

Itssoeasy · 13-06-2020 4:34pm

That was an change from the past few months. Nice rumble of thunder and heavy rain. It's brightening up again now in cork city.

SleetAndSnow · 13-06-2020 4:38pm

Now it's dying down in cork city, heaviest shower I've seen in months if not over a year and a bit. That could have easily cured the drought alone (seeing as we weren't badly affected down here! )

titan18 · 13-06-2020 4:39pm

In about 10 minutes of the rain, you can see the rain piling up in my back garden.

Meteorite58 · 13-06-2020 4:39pm

Cloud eventually opened up here near Tralee, can see convection but not sure if it will lead to thunderstorms here, went from 15 to 19C in a short space of time, Rh 80%, light N'ly

Danno · 13-06-2020 4:42pm

Loud thunder to the south of Durrow, Laois County.

SleetAndSnow · 13-06-2020 4:42pm

Another loud thunder rumble in cork city. Had my kitchen window open because it was roasting and it's now flooded. Edit: and sun

Mortelaro · 13-06-2020 4:54pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some development off southeast Angelsey now, yet to spark but could be interest for south Dublin, north Wicklow in the next couple of hours.

Flow here is due east here In Arklow now
Those are just 12 miles off the coast atm
Wicklow head south to courtown
No sparks though

Kermit.de.frog · 13-06-2020 5:07pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

Flow here is due east here In Arklow now
Those are just 12 miles off the coast atm
Wicklow head south to courtown
No sparks though

They won't make it, I don't think. Inland convective stuff over the sea.

Mortelaro · 13-06-2020 5:16pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They won't make it, I don't think. Inland convective stuff over the sea.

Aye
My analysis of the other evening stands

Mortelaro wrote: »

I think here in Arklow based on all that,I think its likely that we can fly metal coated kites with long thin metal wires high in our open fields Saturday and sunday without much risk,ditto along the east coast and Dublin

Everyone else further west may stay indoors with earplugs and dark sun glasses and further west still,perhaps secure the delf in the dresser as it might move about or break with the noise
People up through Galway and Mayo sensitive to flash photography would also need to pull down the black out blinds

Speaking of blackouts,I'd advise having phone batteries charged and the stove lit for cooking the dinner out west

redsteveireland · 13-06-2020 5:21pm

Kilkenny and Tipp the place to be right now

hawkwing · 13-06-2020 5:23pm

Thunder, SE Tipp,for last 15 mins

Reversal · 13-06-2020 5:25pm

Am I the only one amazed by the accuracy of the high Res models? Effectively forecasting individual cells with precision.

6034073

giveitholly · 13-06-2020 5:31pm

hawkwing wrote: »

Thunder, SE Tipp,for last 15 mins

Yep heard that a while ago and just after a heavy shower as well

Meteorite58 · 13-06-2020 5:34pm

Fairly decent showing already. See some sferics in Kerry now too

Dank Janniels · 13-06-2020 5:44pm

Any chance of sparks reaching Galway?

Calmcookie84 · 13-06-2020 5:59pm

Torrential rain in Mallow followed by thunder and lightning

Burts Bee · 13-06-2020 6:26pm

Calmcookie84 wrote: »

Torrential rain in Mallow followed by thunder and lightning

Holy moly, some massive bangs and forks just there. Been going on about 40 mins now...

Reversal · 13-06-2020 6:35pm

Nice organised line of TS in the SW now. Also some sparks around South Wales now. Some models show a more organised band of cells pushing into the coastal Wexford then Waterford in the next few hours, intensifying as they do. Might be something of interest.