FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

bazlers · 25-01-2021 6:15pm

Yep looking good Gonzo it wouldnt take much to swing it over us. We can but dream. Be nice to see if ECM can come around to the GGEM way of thinking.

Gonzo · 25-01-2021 6:22pm

Between the GEM and the GFS, the GEM would probably be my preferred choice. No doubt by tomorrow morning the models will be different again. The long range models are going for a relatively mild 1 to 2 weeks ahead with the chances of a colder outbreak into the 2nd or possibly 3rd week of February. We shall see. If were going to get an easterly I'd like to see it here no later than the end of the 2nd week of February rather than the end of the month.

Slashermcguirk · 25-01-2021 6:45pm

After the past 48 hours with snow, I am feeling greedy. Snow still all over the garden, really brightens up the day looking out at it.

Would be super to see another beast from the east, there might as well be with sod all to do during level 5 restrictions. Snow is the perfect tonic

nacho libre · 25-01-2021 6:59pm

Gonzo wrote: »

If the GFS 12z verifies it will be heartbreaking for us in Ireland. So close to the mother of a beast but no cigar. Even in this setup there could be a few light flurries around Wexford/Wicklow.

We would get in on it soon afterwards. Don't get too hung up on precise details for a chart 15 days away. What we need to see is a consistent signal from the GFS for a proper cold outbreak, and the ECM and UKMO jumping on Board.

Gonzo · 25-01-2021 7:21pm

nacho libre wrote: »

We would get in on it soon afterwards. Don't get too hung up on precise details for a chart 15 days away. What we need to see is a consistent signal from the GFS for a proper cold outbreak, and the ECM and UKMO jumping on Board.

thats the most annoying aspect of this winter, every time we get a few juicy charts on either the GFS, GEM or ECM they vanish on the next run and goes back to something more tame. Still currently far too much dissagreement between the models past days 4/5.

If we do get agreement for a proper cold spell then we need it to start happening over the next few days to get this within the first half of February. Not in the mood to be still chasing juicy charts 10 days out as we run into March!

Nqp15hhu · 25-01-2021 7:24pm

compsys wrote: »

People keep saying that but the Atlantic hasn't seemed overly active to me over the last few weeks.

There's been very few named storms so far while there's been a lot of frosty weather, which you would rarely get when the Atlantic is fired up.

If you look on the charts. Mild air was never more than 200 miles away.

Reversal · 25-01-2021 8:03pm

ECM similar to GFS @240

bosco12345 · 25-01-2021 8:12pm

Snow / ice warning for tonight and in the morning for Cavan, Monaghan, leitrim, Donegal & Northern Ireland. How much will we get ?

26-01-2021 12:45am

Good read

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1353848749169246209?s=19

JanuarySnowstor · 26-01-2021 12:51am

The output makes me zzzzzz at the moment!
What happened all these wonderful things that were promised after the Strat warming?
If we learnt one thing this Winter it's that Strat warmings ate not a guarantee of anything least of all cold

nacho libre · 26-01-2021 1:19pm

The lack of commentary this morning says it all. It seems like a lot of wet days to come.
I just have this nagging feeling we will eventually get a proper cold spell in late February.

Captain Snow · 26-01-2021 1:25pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The lack of commentary this morning says it all. It seems like a lot of wet days to come.
I just have this nagging feeling we will eventually get a proper cold spell in late February.

I think most are waiting to see the effects of the first SSW which is now starting to show. February is the month when we all get snow. There's a huge blocking signal. We will start to see epic 18zz runs this week.

Reckless Abandonment · 26-01-2021 1:25pm

More worried we get it in April. Just when its not wanted .

nacho libre · 26-01-2021 1:29pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

I think most are waiting to see the effects of the first SSW which is now starting to show. February is the month when we all get snow. There's a huge blocking signal. We will start to see epic 18zz runs this week.

Well the 10th of February on the GFS does look interesting. It's a shame it's so long away. Maybe the MJO moving to phase 7 will be the game changer for us. Let's hope so!

nacho libre · 26-01-2021 1:34pm

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

More worried we get it in April. Just when its not wanted .

I think anyone looking for an early spring is going to be disappointed. We may well end up with a very cold March.

Nqp15hhu · 26-01-2021 3:05pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The lack of commentary this morning says it all. It seems like a lot of wet days to come.
I just have this nagging feeling we will eventually get a proper cold spell in late February.

I think ulster could see snow in the next week or two. The cold air is very close.

Gonzo · 26-01-2021 3:31pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I think anyone looking for an early spring is going to be disappointed. We may well end up with a very cold March.

If we're going to get a decent cold spell it will probably be second half of February at the earliest to sometime in March. The 'decent cold' is getting delayed all the time, same as every other year. First half of February will most likely be a mixture of mild spells and cool spells, basically more of the same.

nacho libre · 26-01-2021 3:47pm

Gonzo wrote: »

If we're going to get a decent cold spell it will probably be second half of February at the earliest to sometime in March. The 'decent cold' is getting delayed all the time, same as every other year. First half of February will most likely be a mixture of mild spells and cool spells, basically more of the same.

What we are seeing now in the output is the result of the vortex moving about and the strat vortex in recovery mode.
The UKMO are suggesting a high somewhere to the North of the UK around the second week of February. The GFS mean was suggesting something similar.
The odds of a late winter cold spell do look more likely if we factor in the mjo moving to phase 7 and the potential impacts of the future warmings to the pv, which may result in another a split of the pv.

sicknotexi · 26-01-2021 3:48pm

Gonzo wrote: »

If we're going to get a decent cold spell it will probably be second half of February at the earliest to sometime in March. The 'decent cold' is getting delayed all the time, same as every other year. First half of February will most likely be a mixture of mild spells and cool spells, basically more of the same.

Everything after the 5th of Feb(at the latest)is up for grabs. Wouldn't discount anything after that period.

bosco12345 · 26-01-2021 4:36pm

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

More worried we get it in April. Just when its not wanted .

I'd take a big snowstorm in April any day!

Kunta Kinte · 26-01-2021 4:41pm

bosco12345 wrote: »

I'd take a big snowstorm in April any day!

nacho libre · 26-01-2021 4:50pm

bosco12345 wrote: »

I'd take a big snowstorm in April any day!

Only if it is the snowstorm to end all snowstorms. Nothing less than a two day blizzard that deposits 90 cms before its over!

Arduach · 26-01-2021 5:02pm

bosco12345 wrote: »

I'd take a big snowstorm in April any day!

If it's of the 1917 variety and -8C at night, bring it on:)

Gonzo · 26-01-2021 5:32pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Only if it is the snowstorm to end all snowstorms. Nothing less than a two day blizzard that deposits 90 cms before its over!

I do remember there was a very significant overnight snow event in April sometime during the 1980s, woke up the next morning for school and there was about a foot of snow. Of course school was cancelled and by 9.30am I was playing in the snow, however the sun appeared behind the cloud cover which was moving away. I have never in my life seen so much snow melt so fast in my life. By evening time there was basically nothing left and the grass was mostly green by sunset. While the snow was still there I did everything I could during the day to conserve the snow into icey piles in the sheltered parts of the garden. These lasted till the next day and then they were gone.

sicknotexi · 26-01-2021 5:49pm

GFS 12z is a bit of a stonker.

Gonzo · 26-01-2021 5:50pm

GFS 12z again looking very cold from first into second week of February but it's on a knife edge for us and leaves us mostly cold, high and dry.

it gets us quite close to setting up a prolonged period of sub zero temperatures but just like the freezer, the mild air is never far away from Ireland either. Scotland could be sub zero for much of February.

OldRio · 26-01-2021 5:54pm

bosco12345 wrote: »

I'd take a big snowstorm in April any day!

That would cause serious problems for my seedlings. Doesn't bare thinking about.

26-01-2021 5:55pm

sicknotexi wrote: »

GFS 12z is a bit of a stonker.

Well I wouldn't use that south of England term
But certainly day 9 onwards is interesting
Pressure low and a northeasterly from what I always call the main road of cold
No returning polar air Involved
Just deep artic air,no messing sauntering around the north atlantic with it

sicknotexi · 26-01-2021 5:57pm

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS 12z again looking very cold from first into second week of February but it's on a knife edge for us and leaves us mostly cold, high and dry.

it gets us quite close to setting up a prolonged period of sub zero temperatures but just like the freezer, the mild air is never far away from Ireland either. Scotland could be sub zero for much of February.

Apart from Monday 8th of feb where we get a snow day.

Captain Snow · 26-01-2021 5:58pm

sicknotexi wrote: »

GFS 12z is a bit of a stonker.

And so it begins again.....

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST