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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #1502
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,678 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The weather at day 10 might be different than what the models are showing, but we never end up with deep cold. Tonights ECM is just a continuation of what we have seen all winter- heights try to go north but are flattened and the azore high heads back to base. It looks like the vortex is kicking into gear at the end. Very bad run.


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    #1503
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    nacho libre wrote: »
    The weather at day 10 might be different than what the models are showing, but we never end up with deep cold. Tonights ECM is just a continuation of what we have seen all winter- heights try to go north but are flattened and the azore high heads back to base. It looks like the vortex is kicking into gear at the end. Very bad run.

    If that last frame of the ECM were to verify, then pretty much guaranteed that you'd see more snow in the days after than you have all winter.

    New Moon



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    #1504
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    bazlers wrote: »
    They cant really but might show trends. Everyone likes to give their tupence worth and why not, its FI thread :)
    If all models converge on something there is a greater not chance of it happening i suppose. If you look at all the background signals you would say we are due for them to hit sooner or later.
    Having said all that we could get pissed on all the way to April.

    Last 3 12 z ECMs day 6 to 10
    Spring
    Freezer
    Cold zonality (single digit rain storms) in that order

    Thats not a signal
    Its a model without a feckin clue beyond day 5
    The others are no better at the moment


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    #1505
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Its a model without a feckin clue beyond day 5
    The others are no better at the moment

    The deterministic ECM runs are way over rated in my opinion, but always good to keep an eye on the more general mean run, which handles medium to long range trends much better.

    New Moon



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    #1506
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    If that last frame of the ECM were to verify, then pretty much guaranteed that you'd see more snow in the days after than you have all winter.

    That Siberian high at day 9-10 is in a hurry to do a 2018 repeat.


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    #1507
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭typhoony


    all I can see from the ECM charts is the Atlantic pushing through the UK and into Scandinavia, not sure there is even a remote clue in those charts to suggest any movement west air of siberian origin


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    #1508
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,678 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    If that last frame of the ECM were to verify, then pretty much guaranteed that you'd see more snow in the days after than you have all winter.

    I am not seeing it myself. All i see is the pv somewhat organised and at home. That to me suggest cold zonality at best. Any high to the east will be shunted away.
    What am i missing?

    Edit:Cold zonality can deliver snow if the systems are running on a nw-se axis. Is this what you meant?


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    #1509
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Sigh...

    New Moon



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    #1510
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    typhoony wrote: »
    all I can see from the ECM charts is the Atlantic pushing through the UK and into Scandinavia, not sure there is even a remote clue in those charts to suggest any movement west air of siberian origin

    What about the massive block that is racing east to west across Siberia, raising heights north of Scandinavia by day 10. Not saying it's going to actually happen. But day 11-16 of tonight's ECM could very easily show a 2018 redux. The hemispheric pattern as a whole drives the north Atlantic sector, not the other way around.


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    #1511
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I am not seeing it myself. All i see is the pv somewhat organised and at home. That to me suggest cold zonality at best. Any high to the east will be shunted away.
    What am i missing?

    Edit:Cold zonality can deliver snow if the systems are running on a nw-se axis. Is this what you meant?

    Look at the evolution of heights across Siberia in day 7-10. Then do the same for the North Atlantic sector. Which one looks like being shunted away?


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    #1512
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,987 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    A cold start to February on the 0z GFS. And then almost a completely split vortex on the last frame.

    gfsnh-0-384.png


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    #1513
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,142 ✭✭✭pad199207


    ECM dire this morning with the Atlantic well and truly back in.
    Hopefully some backtrack over the next few runs which has been the form so far this season.


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    #1514
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    The Atlantic has been in for a long time. ECM looks like it wants to return that maritime chilliness to me.

    New Moon



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    #1515
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,926 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looking at GFS I think that next weekend and early the following week will be one last push of cold. After that I think Spring will start trying to make an appearance and we can forget snow for a while at least.


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    #1516
    mcburns07
    Registered Users Posts: 2,012 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    pauldry wrote: »
    Looking at GFS I think that next weekend and early the following week will be one last push of cold. After that I think Spring will start trying to make an appearance and we can forget snow for a while at least.

    Are you writing off the rest of winter?


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    #1517
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,926 ✭✭✭pauldry


    No Im sure there will be more cold snaps but after the next one looks fairly benign for a good while


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    #1518
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,678 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The problem is, as we see on todays ECM, the siberian high, nine times out of 10, won't make it far enough west for us to benefit from. The Atlantic does not have to be very active for us to to be locked out of very cold weather to the north east. To me it just seems a rinse and repeat scenario, further snow opportunities at times, but no sustained cold spell.
    However,I note the UKMO long range, which has nailed the broadscale pattern to date, is suggesting northerly winds in February with wintry outbreaks, hopefully we are not too close the high pressure in this scenario.


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    #1519
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,678 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    pauldry wrote: »
    Looking at GFS I think that next weekend and early the following week will be one last push of cold. After that I think Spring will start trying to make an appearance and we can forget snow for a while at least.

    Whatever about getting snow, i think with all the warmings we've had and subsequent disruption to the stratosphere from them, spring could well be delayed this year. We could well end up with a rather cool first half of March.


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    #1520
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭typhoony


    nacho libre wrote: »
    The problem is, as we see on todays ECM, the siberian high, nine times out of 10, won't make it far enough west for us to benefit from. The Atlantic does not have to be very active for us to to be locked out of very cold weather to the north east. To me it just seems a rinse and repeat scenario, further snow opportunities at times, but no sustained cold spell.
    However,I note the UKMO long range, which has nailed the broadscale pattern to date, is suggesting northerly winds in February with wintry outbreaks, hopefully we are not too close the high pressure in this scenario.

    which seems to be an annual occurence, that when the Atlantic dies as winter moves into Spring we see a brief resurgence of either the Siberian or scandi high and a few days of bitter cold, the most recent exception being the 2010\2011 winter.


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    #1521
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    The Atlantic has been in for a long time. ECM looks like it wants to return that maritime chilliness to me.

    The Atlantic never truly went away.


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    #1522
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,142 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    The Atlantic has been in for a long time. ECM looks like it wants to return that maritime chilliness to me.

    True yeah it has. But that ECM really ramping it ugh


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    #1523
    compsys
    Registered Users Posts: 1,044 ✭✭✭compsys


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    The Atlantic never truly went away.

    People keep saying that but the Atlantic hasn't seemed overly active to me over the last few weeks.

    There's been very few named storms so far while there's been a lot of frosty weather, which you would rarely get when the Atlantic is fired up.


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    #1524
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,754 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    pad199207 wrote: »
    ECM dire this morning with the Atlantic well and truly back in.
    Hopefully some backtrack over the next few runs which has been the form so far this season.

    The Atlantic has been with us the entire time this winter, it may not have been a typical zonal and active pattern but we have felt it's mixing and had plenty of it's rain all through this winter.


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    #1525
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    pad199207 wrote: »
    True yeah it has. But that ECM really ramping it ugh

    Think positive. Just think of potential squall lines, driving hail, thunder, lightning, gales. Just don't try to focus in too much on the inevitable white grey endless drizzle, because that comes with the territory sadly.

    New Moon



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    #1526
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,142 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Think positive. Just think of potential squall lines, driving hail, thunder, lightning, gales. Just don't try to focus in too much on the inevitable white grey endless drizzle, because that comes with the territory sadly.

    Oh I love when you talk like that ;)


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    #1527
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,678 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Think positive. Just think of potential squall lines, driving hail, thunder, lightning, gales. Just don't try to focus in too much on the inevitable white grey endless drizzle, because that comes with the territory sadly.

    It all sounds a bit meh to me. The only way I would accept a full on Atlantic return is if we had a major storm. I don't see that as a likely outcome any way. I think there will be a high somewhere near us by the second week of February.


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    #1528
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,754 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GEM is up for a wee bit of easterly action, not a beast from the east by any means but certainly colder than that 2 day easterly in early January which had no cold air to tap into.

    GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

    GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

    The freezer doesn't quite reach us but we might be able to pull in some snow showers if this verified.

    GEMOPUK12_240_2.png


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    #1529
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,987 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    A true beast from the east for southern England on the 12Z

    gfs-0-354.png

    dgdgdd.png


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    #1530
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,754 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    If the GFS 12z verifies it will be heartbreaking for us in Ireland. So close to the mother of a beast but no cigar. Even in this setup there could be a few light flurries around Wexford/Wicklow.

    GFSOPEU12_384_1.png

    Imagine if this was a direct hit, the depth of cold would still be incredible compared to the BFTE/Storm Emma which was really too late into the season.

    GFSOPEU12_384_2.png


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    #1531
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,564 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    That's just a delay though with that small trough dropping south...but I digress...


This discussion has been closed.
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