Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

Supercell · 11-12-2020 12:51pm

In the short term the fax charts look like the Atlantic is back in full control to my eye, thats hard to shift. My money at this point is on a mild wet and probably stormy xmas period. Hope thats wrong.

YanSno · 11-12-2020 1:01pm

YanSno wrote: »

Looks like High Pressure will dominate for the next 7 days. It will be dry, cold and frosty during the night with fog in places. HP is trying to retrograde over Greenland if that happens chances of a north or north easterly is possible but i don't think this will happen due to a tropical disturbance around Bermuda which will nudge the HP either to our west or over Ireland bringing in westerly winds. Looking further down the analogue and the rest of the winter my predictions are that our weather will be dominated with Low pressure piling in from the west with colder interlude. It will be fairly zonal for most of this winter and it could get very stormy around end of December into the new year. Chances of a cold and snowy period could happen around end of January into February. Let's see how this pans out.

Looks like the conveyor belt is fully functional as predicted

Storm 10 · 11-12-2020 1:12pm

I see MT has mentioned a storm for next week any updates

Gonzo · 11-12-2020 2:27pm

Supercell wrote: »

In the short term the fax charts look like the Atlantic is back in full control to my eye, thats hard to shift. My money at this point is on a mild wet and probably stormy xmas period. Hope thats wrong.

at this stage it's starting to look like any hope of a decent easterly or north-easterly in time for Christmas is off the table. We will probably end up with a very Atlantic driven mild and wet Christmas or in no man's land with 7 or 8C and dry. My money is on the Atlantic, the conveyor belt looks like it's back big time for the forseeable future.

King of Spades · 11-12-2020 2:59pm

Gonzo wrote: »

at this stage it's starting to look like any hope of a decent easterly or north-easterly in time for Christmas is off the table. We will probably end up with a very Atlantic driven mild and wet Christmas or in no man's land with 7 or 8C and dry. My money is on the Atlantic, the conveyor belt looks like it's back big time for the forseeable future.

That’s a shame. A white Christmas would have cheered a lot of people up this year, just as the sun did in Spring during the first lockdown.

Although I presume the forecast can still change as it’s 2 weeks away?

pauldry · 11-12-2020 3:15pm

Its a shame alright and the cold pools we need are getting further and further away by the year coz of Climate Change. There is a cold pool that comes down from Greenland from time to time and thats all we can really tap into for snow at this time I think.

Later in February and March the Continent sometimes provides a few small opportunities. I think most people accept now that cold spells dont last long here anymore (even in 2018 it was 3 or 4 days) but it would be nice to get a snowy morning on Christmas Day. Cant we tamper with the charts and make it snow?

Gonzo · 11-12-2020 3:49pm

King of Spades wrote: »

That’s a shame. A white Christmas would have cheered a lot of people up this year, just as the sun did in Spring during the first lockdown.

Although I presume the forecast can still change as it’s 2 weeks away?

it can still change but at the moment nothing is lining up to open the freezer in our direction within the next 2 weeks. No mid Atlantic ridge stretching up to Greenland, high pressure close to Spain and low pressures barreling in one after another off the Atlantic into north-western Europe. The Siberian high is also due to push back well into interior Russia away from the NE of Europe.

The run up to Christmas is now looking mild especially for the European continent with winds up from the south or south-west. Away from high ground in Scandinavia and the Alps, there looks to be very little if any snow throughout Europe over the next 2 weeks unless there is a sudden change in the models very soon.

nacho libre · 11-12-2020 3:51pm

pauldry wrote: »

Its a shame alright and the cold pools we need are getting further and further away by the year coz of Climate Change. There is a cold pool that comes down from Greenland from time to time and thats all we can really tap into for snow at this time I think.

?

While significant snow events were seemingly more frequent in the past, they usually lasted no more than 3 or 4 days. The notable exceptions being December 2000, December 2009 and 2010. Even the potent northerlies, which as you mentioned seem to be a thing of the past, rarely lasted a week.

As regards the longer term outlook, the ec46 and glosea updates are not very encouraging at all if you want a beast from the east. The glosea 5 update is interesting because they were suggesting a possible split vortex in January. Whether that has been revised, or it's that they do not see it working out in our favour is not certain.

It's not all doom and gloom, in a cold zonal pattern some parts of the country may well see snow at times, but we are unlikely to get ice days with substantial accumulations of snow.

sryanbruen · 11-12-2020 4:00pm

nacho libre wrote: »

While significant snow events were seemingly more frequent in the past, they usually lasted no more than 3 or 4 days. The notable exceptions being December 2000, December 2009 and 2010. Even the potent northerlies, which as you mentioned seem to be a thing of the past, rarely lasted a week.

As regards the longer term outlook, the ec46 and glosea updates are not very encouraging at all if you want a beast from the east. The glosea 5 update is interesting because they were suggesting a possible split vortex in January. Whether that has been revised, or it's that they do not see it working out in our favour is not certain.

It's not all doom and gloom, in a cold zonal pattern some parts of the country may well see snow at times, but we are unlikely to get ice days with substantial accumulations of snow.

Stratospheric signals remain the same as far as I can see, minor wave-1 displacements with the SPV flatlining in a relative weak state rather than be obliterated altogether. Any chances of a split be after the New Year in my opinion.

As for the troposphere level.. looks like a classic misfortune for Europe of being on the milder side of the blocking to me.

jirafa · 11-12-2020 4:09pm

How likely is a white Christmas this year? 11/12/2020.

Met Office - Weather

Alex and Aidan discussed the chances in their '3 Minute Met' feature in Weather Studio Live (Episode 93).

The forecast and any weather warnings within this video are accurate at time of recording.

Oneiric 3 · 11-12-2020 7:47pm

Goldfinch8 wrote: »

I have to say that I am the opposite and love those long evenings in June when the twilight lingers long in the northwestern sky. On a clear night, you might be lucky and have the added bonus of some noctilucent clouds brightening up the northern horizon into the wee hours.
I don't mind the winter as such and love the prospect of a snow chase though they rarely come to fruition. There is no logic to why I like it but I think it is the inner child in me that still loves that hypnotic trance of watching snowflakes fall at night as they are lit up by an outside light.
It is the blue skies that I probably like the most in any season. Cold, crisp, frosty weather will do me nicely in the winter and even though we are no strangers to rain here in the west, I really despise those grey days of rain that we can get in the winter when the temperature remains around 4 or 5 degrees.
If I could cherry pick a few days, I would take the weather that we had at the end of last May and over the June bank holiday weekend. That was glorious!

Not a fan of the long evenings myself, but having said that, there is something ancient and magical about mid-summer twilights. They are like none other in the year. The long nights at this time of year don't bother me in the least. Always liked and looked forward to them and in fairness, they don't last too long anyway. By the end of January, we'll already be noticing a big difference. I don't think I could live in a region of the world where there is no sense of 'season'. I am of northern climes; it is just inbuilt in me.

appledrop · 11-12-2020 8:05pm

I absolutely adore the long summer evenings!

I hate the way you can get a really warm day in Sept but it is let down by going dark earlier than I would like as no longer peak summer.

I'd agree with Goldfinch that its beautiful blue skies I love the most.

Thats why I loved this Autumn so much because we got so many dry, bright days + had more sunshine hours than summer.

I hate snow for Christmas, bah humbug!

Just makes it so difficult when travelling to see people even though that will be more limited this year.

Hooter23 · 11-12-2020 9:26pm

Both our summer and winter are bad for the opposite reasons....in winter its dark too early for too long...summer its the opposite problem its dosn't get dark until after 11 and bright again by half 3/ 4 oclock...its like going from bad too worse we need something in between all year round...could be even worse though if we were further north

Gonzo · 11-12-2020 9:36pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Both our summer and winter are bad for the opposite reasons....in winter its dark too early for too long...summer its the opposite problem its dosn't get dark until after 11 and bright again by half 3/ 4 oclock...its like going from bad too worse we need something in between all year round...could be even worse though if we were further north

the worst thing about our summers and winters is we normally get mild or warmer than average temperatures in the winter and colder than average in the summer.

Winter 2019/2020 was dominated by 13C and 14C days with 10C nights.
Summer 2020 was dominated by 15C days and 10C nights.

Barely any difference between the two except for the sunlight hours.

Donegal Storm · 11-12-2020 10:40pm

The long summer evenings are one thing I really missed about Ireland when living abroad, lived in places with much better climates but its always disappointing even on nice warm midsummer evenings seeing it get dark at 8pm. On the other hand I really hate the darkness at this time of year, if I ever have the funds I'm definitely buying a place in the Med to retreat to for the winter months in future

compsys · 11-12-2020 11:10pm

Gonzo wrote: »

the worst thing about our summers and winters is we normally get mild or warmer than average temperatures in the winter and colder than average in the summer.

Winter 2019/2020 was dominated by 13C and 14C days with 10C nights.
Summer 2020 was dominated by 15C days and 10C nights.

Barely any difference between the two except for the sunlight hours.

I get your point but it's a slight exaggeration to say the summer was 'dominated' by 15º days and that winter was dominated by 14º days.

Winter always throws up the odd 13 or 14º day in Ireland while summer throws up the odd bad day too - this year a bit more than usual mind you. But in general it's more like 17-20 in summer and 7-10 in winter.

However winters have definitely been trending far milder than summers in recent years - in fact summers have been quite close to average, which is the opposite of what you'd want really.

JanuarySnowstor · 12-12-2020 12:38am

I see Steve Murr has called time on this Winter already
Almost as silly as his ramping posts over the last couple of weeks.
The reality is that things can and will change and writing off the Winter on 12th Dec is crazy.

Billcarson · 12-12-2020 1:30am

Cold ramper in chief Steve Murr will be back on net weather im sure at the next sign of a possible cold spell whenever that happens and will get them all into a frenzy again lol.

Emme · 12-12-2020 1:36am

Gonzo wrote: »

the worst thing about our summers and winters is we normally get mild or warmer than average temperatures in the winter and colder than average in the summer.

Winter 2019/2020 was dominated by 13C and 14C days with 10C nights.
Summer 2020 was dominated by 15C days and 10C nights.

Barely any difference between the two except for the sunlight hours.

You mean daylight hours. We don't get much sun here, especially in the summer.

icesnowfrost · 12-12-2020 1:37am

I hate to say that the last few runs have definitely been a disappointment however it’s not all lost. Let’s see how the next few days go although it’s not great but not 100% gone. However it does look like there will be some kind of a scandi high at some point and might let the cold air in to us. SSW could help us out but won’t se the results of that for a few weeks correct me if I’m wrong.

Little snowy old me · 12-12-2020 1:41am

All prospects of a cold snowy Christmas are dashed. Same every year.

Billcarson · 12-12-2020 1:57am

There is no doubt things have taken a backward step when it comes to cold prospects and the latest glosea update was poor to say the least. Hopefully the prospect for cold can improve again,just have to wait and see.

Thelonious Monk · 12-12-2020 12:47pm

Might be 14c in Dublin tomorrow, some of us are delighted it's not as cold any more!

bazlers · 12-12-2020 5:35pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

All prospects of a cold snowy Christmas are dashed. Same every year.

Ah dont throw in the towel now. The fun is just beginning...

Supercell · 12-12-2020 5:47pm

Fax charts are horrendous unless you like mild windy and wet.

Hooter23 · 12-12-2020 6:25pm

Not much on recent charts...but im sure charts will get much wilder in the next couple of weeks...we rarely get a full december month without any wild weather...at some stage of the month

daniel_t1409 · 12-12-2020 7:22pm

lets face it there will be no snow this winter. Most likely it will be a constant stream of weather systems from the atlantic right up until March, THEN we'll get the cold weather in March and April with potential for snow. Spring is our winter.

A clear day here in wexford, probably the last for a while.

Little snowy old me · 12-12-2020 8:28pm

I'm hearing that there could be a nasty storm on Tuesday. And one that could sweep the whole country, not just the western seaboard.

Meteorite58 · 12-12-2020 8:39pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I'm hearing that there could be a nasty storm on Tuesday. And one that could sweep the whole country, not just the western seaboard.

Artane2002 · 12-12-2020 9:02pm

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

lets face it there will be no snow this winter. Most likely it will be a constant stream of weather systems from the atlantic right up until March, THEN we'll get the cold weather in March and April with potential for snow. Spring is our winter.

A clear day here in wexford, probably the last for a while.

very true, I'm fairly sure lying snow has occurred in March more often than any other month in Dublin. March 2013/2016/2018/2019/2020 all had lying snow in Dublin. I don't know how reliable March is for snow in Wexford though. I've talked about this so many times so people are probably fed up of my posts about March snowfall at this stage

!

On another note, today was a stunning day in Dublin 5.

Hooter23 · 13-12-2020 12:21am

Really heavy rain in Galway right now...its moving towards mayo so your next

icesnowfrost · 13-12-2020 8:03am

The models are still trying to bring in cold weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day but it’s like every second run and the opposite runs are westerly crap. It’s certainly not over but it’s not set in stone either way

JanuarySnowstor · 13-12-2020 8:53am

Tidal flooding for Cork looks very likely Wednesday morning!!

Very high spring tide - >
A deep low in situ - >
Preceding Easterly gale - >
Saturated ground - >
Heavy rain on the day and days before - >

An advance warning is more than justified!

DOCARCH · 13-12-2020 8:54am

Mild, wet and windy morning in Dublin 16.

Rock Lesnar · 13-12-2020 9:27am

Heavy rain here in meath, was hoping to get out on the bike this morbing, not looking likely now

Humberto Salazar · 13-12-2020 9:52am

Specific Christmas Day weather chances in my opinion - 80% wet windy and mild. 10% dry and colder 10% wintry. I'm getting more and more bullish on mild, but still time for change. Might be a colder new years eve though.

daniel_t1409 · 13-12-2020 11:09am

Windy, mild, wet morning. Rain hammering on the roof pretty much all night. Plus side is it's no longer freezing inside the house.

SleetAndSnow · 13-12-2020 11:22am

Windy and wet morning in cork city. first time in a while it's been windy. Just seems... Dark too. Rotten morning.

Goldfinch8 · 13-12-2020 11:26am

A very wet morning near Castlebar also. 10c.

daniel_t1409 · 13-12-2020 11:38am

To brighten up everyone's mood, taken on 28 Feb 2018

appledrop · 13-12-2020 12:51pm

Lashing all morning here in NCD.

Ah well a good excuse to stay in + enjoy the Christmas decorations with a movie.

Glad we went in to see lights in town yesterday afternoon.

Thelonious Monk · 13-12-2020 12:57pm

Rain gone, sunny and almost warm in Dublin now!

appledrop · 13-12-2020 1:12pm

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Rain gone, sunny and almost warm in Dublin now!

Ah come on now Thelonious sunny + warm!

It must be a different Dublin you are in.

Meanwhile here in NCD, still raining, still dull + my neighbours garden is flooded.

DOCARCH · 13-12-2020 1:19pm

Sunny in Dublin 16....or at least it was for a little bit.

Thelonious Monk · 13-12-2020 1:20pm

appledrop wrote: »

Ah come on now Thelonious sunny + warm!

It must be a different Dublin you are in.

Meanwhile here in NCD, still raining, still dull + my neighbours garden is flooded.

well my thermometer says 14c, the sun is gone now though

SleetAndSnow · 13-12-2020 1:36pm

Dried up here in Cork City, just a bit windy now and dark rolling clouds. About 12 degrees so mild enough.

Just got a text from Cork City Council advising of a period of high astronomical tides on Monday, Tuesday but on Wednesday they are predicating a storm surge which will flood "the wider city centre".

Jimbob1977 · 13-12-2020 1:42pm

Extremely mild in Limerick at 13c.

Some less reputable British tabloids predicting plenty of snow on the ground for the last ten days of December.

Oscar Bravo · 13-12-2020 5:05pm

Keeping an eye on Tuesday night
https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Clonmel1000 · 13-12-2020 5:23pm

Dark wet gloomy evening. Had a chuckle at some of the posts during the week bemoaning the brightness of our summers. Irish summers are barely tolerable for their awfulness our winters bring that up another notch altogether.

Gonzo · 13-12-2020 5:28pm

a nice day today after a very wet night and morning. Side roads around Dunshaughlin are partially flooded.

The next week to 10 days looks very unsettled and generally mild, up to 100mm of rain is possible in places between now and Christmas particularly along western coastal areas and high ground. There are hints today of a cool down around Christmas and something a lot drier.

Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

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