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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sunday, 9 p.m.
    ____________________

    Things appear to be on track for the northern and central two-thirds of Ireland to see some light or at times moderate rain overnight, and I should mention that Sligo will get as much as anywhere.

    To update my own weather conditions, Saturday was a mostly cloudy day with a high near 20 C, so about the same as what many of you had, without the morning rain. Today has turned out to be sunny and it is warming up again, 23 C so far, and the forecast for the week ahead is for highs in the 27-30 C range, not as extreme as we had two weeks ago, more of the normal summer warmth.

    If you're watching the PGA golf from Minnesota, they are getting some clearing skies there after some light rain all morning (local time is six hours behind yours and two hours ahead of mine). It will be about 25 C there by the end of the golf today, and by the standards of that region, not overly humid although the dew points have just fallen slightly to about 17 C. There's a steady west wind of about 20-25 mph.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 17 August, 2009
    __________________________

    TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, mainly around mid-day in eastern and southern counties. Some drizzly light rain may continue for a while this morning in west-central Ireland, then this will die out for a while to be replaced later by showery rain arriving on a warm front this evening. Highs today will be around 18 to 20 C.

    TONIGHT will be clear in the east for a while and lows could fall to 8-9 C in rural districts, but further west it is likely to be overcast with occasional rain, and this rain will spread further east after midnight. Lows in other parts of Ireland will be near 12 C.

    TUESDAY will be warm and humid with some heavy morning showers, possibly a few sunny breaks mid-day or early afternoon, then more rain later with the risk of thundershowers developing. A rather strong southerly wind will develop especially near the south and west coasts. Highs will be about 21 C inland and 18 C near the water.

    TUESDAY NIGHT will also feature some thundershowers moving through with possible heavy rainfalls, and lows of about 14 C.

    WEDNESDAY will bring intervals of cloud and sunshine for part of the day, then more showers and thundershowers, with highs near 22 C in eastern Ireland, and 18-20 C elsewhere. Winds will be rather strong at times from the southwest.

    THURSDAY will feature some partial clearing after early morning showers to a fresher, westerly wind that may gust to 40 mph in the north and west at times. More showers could follow, but there should be longer sunny intervals and highs near 17 C.

    FRIDAY continues to look rather wet and relatively cool, with highs near 17 C.

    SATURDAY and SUNDAY are currently looking unsettled and about like most of the other recent weekends temperature wise, near 20 C.

    NEXT WEEK there are indications of higher pressure building up to the northeast and allowing some drier conditions with east winds, this could turn out to be a warm spell as long as the wind direction gets to be a little south of due east, but the signals are a bit mixed; this could equally be a rather cool, cloudy period with winds swinging more around to the north. I'm not really that confident that these models have picked up a real signal here, so if it just turns out to be yet another mild southwest Atlantic sort of week, don't blame me (entirely).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Monday, 8:30 p.m.
    ________________________

    Not much to change in the forecast, despite drizzly light rain advancing from the west, it may stay dry if not clear for part of the night in some eastern and southeastern locations, probably you'll be able to see a few stars through a veil of higher cloud, and the moon doesn't rise until well after midnight so if you see that it could be something else.

    By the way, the only planet visible in the evening or around midnight nowadays is Jupiter, which should be visible in the southeast after sunset and low in the south around midnight. Venus is currently a morning star, and Mars is rising after midnight too. Saturn is quite close to the Sun in the sky and can't easily be viewed at this point.

    The weather here is warming up again, it is sunny and 27 C at 1230 local time here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 11 August, 2009
    ___________________________

    TODAY will become quite warm with a few sunny breaks in south-central counties spreading eventually to the east coast. Further north, it may stay cloudy but the morning rain is likely to become showery and then brighter spells should develop there also. Around Dublin there will probably be some occasional morning showers and a brief sunny interval in the lunch hour or early afternoon time frame, then more cloud. Highs will reach about 23 C in some inland southern or even central parts, and 20-21 C almost everywhere else. Winds will become a little more gusty from the south.

    TONIGHT will see heavier showers redeveloping and moving in from the southwest around evening, then reaching central and eastern Ireland around or after midnight. Lows will be quite mild at 15-18 C. Some places may see about 15-20 mms of rain.

    WEDNESDAY will bring a few more sunny intervals after the morning showers clear away, and it will remain warm with highs near 22 C. There will be another round of heavy showers or even thunderstorms later in the day as winds become SSW 20-30 mph.

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT is likely to be quite showery or even stormy with another very mild overnight low of about 16 C.

    THURSDAY will see the squally showers heading away from the east coast by about mid-morning and afterwards, there should be some sunny intervals, brisk westerly breezes, and highs near 18 C. More showers could redevelop especially in the north and west.

    FRIDAY was supposed to be wet, but at the time of the latest guidance this system has weakened to the point where the day may only be cloudy with light showers. Let's hope that idea holds because probably few need any more rain at this point. Highs still look to be around 17 or 18 C.

    THE WEEKEND is continuing to look rather unsettled and breezy with highs probably close to 20 C.

    NEXT WEEK, nothiing much is happening except for Hurricane Bill ... well that's what the GFS model was showing me very recently, the hurricane is to hit Newfoundland on Monday morning as quite a strong storm (80 mph winds are indicated) and then race across the Atlantic in much weaker form to graze southern coastal Ireland with a weak remnant low on Tuesday night of next week. I should stress that this model forecast only shows winds of 20-30 mph by that time, so no need for anyone to worry about this now.

    This can't really be trusted yet beyond the general idea that the hurricane may be near Newfoundland by about Monday; after that, what's left of it could easily be anywhere from Iceland to Portugal by mid-week, it all depends on how much the Atlantic ridge ridges as the hurricane approaches eastern Canada. So keep it in the back of your mind that Bill could be part of the forecast scenario in about eight days.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,160 ✭✭✭nilhg


    Tuesday, 11 August, 2009
    ___________________________



    NEXT WEEK, nothiing much is happening except for Hurricane Bill ... well that's what the GFS model was showing me very recently, the hurricane is to hit Newfoundland on Monday morning as quite a strong storm (80 mph winds are indicated) and then race across the Atlantic in much weaker form to graze southern coastal Ireland with a weak remnant low on Tuesday night of next week. I should stress that this model forecast only shows winds of 20-30 mph by that time, so no need for anyone to worry about this now.

    This can't really be trusted yet beyond the general idea that the hurricane may be near Newfoundland by about Monday; after that, what's left of it could easily be anywhere from Iceland to Portugal by mid-week, it all depends on how much the Atlantic ridge ridges as the hurricane approaches eastern Canada. So keep it in the back of your mind that Bill could be part of the forecast scenario in about eight days.


    Interesting about Hurricane Bill, I'd just left Ag college and started farming at home with my father when Hurricane Charley came to visit on the night of the 25/26th of August 1986, ever since I pay plenty of attention to talk of hurricanes slipping across the Atlantic from Canada.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 19 August, 2009
    _____________________________

    TODAY will bring intervals of rain, heavy at times, to most of western and central Ireland. The east may remain dry until mid to late morning, then the rainfall could be more showery when it arrives there. The heavier bursts of rain in the west may be followed by some brighter intervals before a final round of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms arrives this evening. Throughout, winds will be rather gusty from the south at 20-35 m.p.h., and highs will be near 21 C. Rainfalls could be as heavy as 15-30 mms and local flooding is possible.

    TONIGHT the rain and thunder may become quite heavy as it moves slowly east across the country, with gusty SSW winds veering more westerly by morning, and very mild lows near 17 C. A further 15-30 mms of rain could fall leading to more flooding.

    THURSDAY should be a brighter and less muggy day with strong SW to W breezes (quite windy over the open Atlantic and on hills throughout Ireland) 20-40 m.p.h., passing showers redeveloping by afternoon, and highs around 17 C.

    FRIDAY looks variable with some cloud, some sunshine, and brief showers, rather extensive higher cloud over top of it all, and highs near 17 C after morning lows that could be as low as 9 or 10 C.

    SATURDAY is expected to be breezy, showery and a bit warmer again with highs of 19 or 20 C.

    SUNDAY should see this trend continuing with slightly cooler temperatures again, highs near 17 or 18 C.

    MONDAY will continue somewhat unsettled with mostly cloudy skies and showers, highs near 17 C.

    TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY is the time frame we are watching closely as the various weather models all seem to agree that what's left of Hurricane Bill can be expected to be near Ireland at some point in this interval, but it's too early to speculate on the details (the hurricane is being shown near St. John's Newfoundland on Monday afternoon, and speeding eastward in a strong jet stream. I wouldn't be surprised if it brings gales and heavy rains to some part of Ireland and/or Scotland.)

    Tuesday here was sunny and quite warm, about 27 C, but this is not as extreme as that heat wave we endured and it didn't feel too bad with the low humidity.

    -- See the thread started by Deep Easterly for more ideas about today's rainfall.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Wednesday, 8:20 p.m.
    __________________________

    The heavier rain is now moving towards central and eventually eastern Ireland, would say to expect downpours in Dublin by about 0200h after intermittent showers. Some may get a thundershower during this frontal passage. I will perhaps issue another update around midnight as I continue to monitor the radar and satellite imagery.

    As for Bill, the models have been quite consistent for days showing this hurricane slamming into Newfoundland. From that point on, they have dispersed the remnants all over the Atlantic on various runs, but the most recent guidance is starting to look about as expected, a strong wind and rain event for parts of Ireland on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

    There probably won't be a clear indication on this until Saturday, because there has always been some chance that the storm would track too far north to be much of an issue for Ireland. There is also a slight chance it would track southeast towards the Iberian peninsula.

    My weather, naturally, hot and sunny with highs near 30 C. If we could only combine our climates into one tolerable blend.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 20 August, 2009
    _____________________________

    TODAY will bring some squally showers moving rapidly east this morning, with a few thundershowers mixed in, then sunny intervals, less humid conditions and brisk SW breezes 20-30 mph, with highs near 17 or 18 C. A few more showers could develop later and affect mainly western counties.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with just a slight risk of showers, mostly to the northern counties. Lows will drop off to about 8 or 9 C in some rural areas and 10 to 12 C elsewhere.

    FRIDAY will be a partly to mostly cloudy day with showers at times, somewhat heavier in the northwest than elsewhere. Winds will be brisk across Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties because just to the north there will be gales approaching western Scotland, but further south winds will be more moderate (all from a westerly direction). Highs will be about 17 C.

    SATURDAY will bring more showers and warmer temperatures near 20 C, with brisk southwest winds developing.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few more showers, brisk westerly winds and highs near 17 C.

    MONDAY will also be cloudy with showers, strong west to northwest breezes, and highs near 16 C.

    Following that, as Bill crosses Newfoundland Sunday night and Monday, there remains a chance that a strong remnant storm could be racing in towards Ireland by late Tuesday. Some guidance is suggesting this strong low will halt rather quickly and spin around in the central Atlantic, but this seems rather suspect. We'll keep watching developments.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Absolutely Pishing in Galway/Clare all morning and this heavy rain is now about to cross into Tipp/Offaly/Westmeath and should clear Connacht by lunchtime .

    Currently flooded area like Kilkenny are at risk of a topup from then onwards.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    We had unreal rain here in Galway from around 8am just starting to brighten up now, there are reports of flooded roads and I am not surprised when you look at the radar.

    http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

    Where in the name of god is summer gone have we no hope for some nice weather.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Thursday, 5:45 p.m.
    _______________________

    Widely scattered showers, the heaviest around Wexford at the moment, should continue their "splash and dash" trek east across much of Ireland this evening, but it will be dry much of the time with some sunny intervals. The rather strong SW winds will tend to stay fairly steady through much of the night then drop off except in exposed locations before morning.

    The latest guidance on Bill continues to show the remnants heading towards Ireland late Tuesday, and the suggestions most recently are for gale force potential around the northwest coastal regions by Wednesday morning. The track is pretty much due east until near 20 W then a curve north, followed by several days of spiralling around and filling slowly, which would mean several days of breezy, showery weather. Of course, you can get that without Bill's help, I suppose.

    I'll post my weather now although it's only 0945 here, it looks like being another sunny, hot day, but with late thunderstorms and a cooling trend setting in overnight. The predicted high is about 30 C. It is 24 C now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭df1985


    flying out of dublin airport wednesday at 6am,are flights likely to be disrupted due to big bad BILL?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 21 August, 2009
    _______________________

    TODAY will start out partly cloudy in most areas, but the west will be showery, with some heavy and possibly thundery rain in the southwest, slowly advancing east towards Cork and Waterford. Although winds will generally be rather light today, the northwest coast could see some higher gusts by early to mid afternoon (WSW 25-40 mph there), and the heavy shower complex in the southwest could produce some strong wind gusts as well. Further east, a mixture of cloud and sunshine with brief and widely dispersed showers can be expected later on, and for almost all regions the highs will be 17 or 18 C.

    TONIGHT will see some clear intervals and lighter winds, allowing rural areas to drop to about 8 C for their low, and 10-12 C in coastal and urban areas.

    SATURDAY will see a gradual increase in cloud during the morning, with rain to follow, possibly quite heavy in the southwest and central counties by afternoon. Winds will gradually pick up to reach SSW 20-30 mph. Highs will be about 19 C.

    SUNDAY will start out rather stormy in most of Ireland with squally showers and thunderstorms, then it may brighten as winds become more westerly. After morning lows near 13 C the daytime highs will be around 18 C.

    MONDAY is expected to be breezy, mostly cloudy, with showers or longer periods of rain, and steady SW to W winds of 20-30 mph.

    TUESDAY will continue unsettled, and if the current model forecasts are right, we'll be watching the approach of (remnants of) Hurricane Bill, which is being advertised as a very windy system racing in towards western Ireland by late in the day. On the current guidance, many parts of Ireland could see wind gusts to 50 or even 60 mph from this storm Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with squally showers or thundershowers. And although it would ease off gradually mid-week, the rest of the week into the weekend would remain breezy and cool due to the continuing presence nearby of this low, which is then predicted to loop around near Iceland and drift southeast eventually into the North Sea.

    Meanwhile, watch for updates on today's more localized storm in the southwest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Friday, 2:30 p.m.
    _______________________

    Issuing an alert for possible local severe storms in parts of s Tipps, Laois, inland Waterford and Wexford ... also local heavy showers in north central counties ... possible hail, wind gusts to 50 mph, and slight risk of a small tornado with any of these (by small tornado, I mean an F0 tornado that may be nothing more than a rope-tornado feature but still capable of flipping over a garden shed or taking tiles off roofs).

    A noticeable feature of these showers also, is how chilly the temperature becomes after they move past, 12 C at Finner Camp for example, very cool for this time of year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 22 August, 2009
    _________________________

    TODAY will start out bright and at least partly sunny despite advancing higher layers of cloud in the west. Rain is likely to arrive by early to mid afternoon in the west, but it may remain dry much of the day in the southeast and east, although cloudier by afternoon. Winds will be picking up steadily after a rather calm start, to reach SSW 20-30 mph. Highs will range from 17 C in the northwest, to 20 C in the inland southeast.

    TONIGHT periods of rain may become heavy and thundery at times, with winds continuing to blow steadily from the S to SW at 20-30 mph, and with potential for 20-30 mms of rain. Lows will be about 13 C.

    SUNDAY is likely to start out quite wet and even stormy in places, then there could be some intervals of sunshine with a slightly less humid SW flow setting in, but more showers could then develop from west to east ... highs should be generally about 18 or 19 C.

    MONDAY will bring somewhat cooler and showery conditions with blustery SSW winds turning more westerly by evening. Highs will be about 17 C.

    TUESDAY will feature intervals of cloud and sun, a few showers, but this may be the calm before the storm as remnants of Bill arrive in the west by late in the day. Highs will be near 18 C.

    WEDNESDAY looks quite windy and showery as the remnant low of hurricane Bill edges closer to Ireland and stalls near Donegal or Mayo (on the latest guidance). Winds may increase to 30-50 mph at times, with potential for some heavy showers and local thundershowers. Winds will start out southerly and veer westerly during the day (subject to updates as this is not a done deal yet). Highs would be about 19 or 20 C with quite a tropical humidity along for the ride.

    Following the arrival of this system, several days of breezy, partly cloudy but unsettled weather are likely to follow as the low will probably not move away too far at first, but winds will tend to become more NW'ly over the passage of several days. This would suggest a rather cool spell of weather towards the weekend.

    Update on my own weather here, it turned a lot cooler today with low cloud and drizzle much of the morning, breaking up somewhat to mostly cloudy with highs near 21 C.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Saturday, 8:20 p.m.
    __________________________

    Bursts of heavier rain will continue to move northeast across parts of Mayo, eastern Galway, Sligo, Roscommon and Leitrim towards the western half of NI this evening; local rainfalls could be about 30 mms with spot flooding. Elsewhere, the rain will either be less intense somewhat further to the south, or later to arrive in the case of south central to eastern Ireland, with a second wave of moisture coming ashore in the southwest soon, and spreading gradually to most other regions through the night.

    Bill continues to send the same signals to the computer models, heading for Ireland as a 30-50 mph wind event late Tuesday and early Wednesday, with a tropical warm sector meaning that it could be close to 21 C and raining much of the day on Wednesday. Potential there for LOCALLY heavy rains but not likely to be a country-wide heavy rainfall, details of course won't be that easy to determine until the storm is approaching.

    Current location is about 400 miles south of Boston and heading north, then later tonight north-northeast, to a position probably just offshore from Halifax Nova Scotia on Sunday. Will post a satellite image link on the Bill thread if you're interested in following its progress through Canadian waters and across Newfoundland on Monday morning.

    My weather today is sunny with cloudy periods and refreshingly cooler at about 21 C. It really is criminal how much sunshine we get here considering our ocean is twice as big as yours, somebody should look into this. But then, almost defying logic, you have the nicer people. (I think so, anyway)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 23 August, 2009
    __________________________

    TODAY, heavy rain will spread from Galway towards Ulster, with squally showers tracking further south from about Clare and north Kerry towards Dublin. This weather system could produce 25-40 mms of rain and, given the preceding rainfalls, has potential to create serious flooding along smaller rivers and low-lying urban areas. There may be thunderstorms embedded especially later this morning in Dublin and the southeast.

    Few places will escape this rain but it may be more showery in some south coast locations, then by afternoon there will be a general drying trend with partly cloudy skies, strong SW breezes, and yet a few more showers could develop. Highs will reach about 18 C.

    TONIGHT will continue breezy and partly cloudy with still the risk of a few showers mainly in western regions. Lows will be about 11 C, but could drop as low as 8 C in eastern districts if the skies clear long enough.

    MONDAY will be quite windy at times with squally showers, once again heavier in western districts than elsewhere. Winds will become SSW 20-30 mph for most, and 30-50 mph over western Galway, Mayo, Donegal and some adjacent counties. Highs will reach about 15 or 16 C in the northwest, to 18 in the southeast.

    TUESDAY may be somewhat improved as the remnants of Bill cross the eastern Atlantic, and a gap opens up between storms, to allow for some dry intervals, perhaps a few hours of sunshine, but still some chance of showers mainly in the northwest. Highs will reach about 19 C.

    TUESDAY night and WEDNESDAY, Ireland may be dealing with Bill ... the latest guidance is suggesting more of a rain event as the stronger winds are being shown skirting the south coast and heading for southern England. Highs would be 18-20 C and considerable rain could fall. As this track continues to vary from one computer run to the next, I would say just to stay tuned and expect some sort of unsettled day from early morning to evening. Details will fall into place once Bill actually gets past Newfoundland on Monday.

    LATER in the week, the weather is likely to remain unsettled, breezy and rather cool.

    Watch for updates on the developing heavy rainfall and possible storm situations today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sunday, 0900
    __________________

    Radar indicates some torrential rain now moving from about Tralee towards Limerick. This storm could develop strong wind gusts as well. This activity may continue further east through the late morning and mid-day hours.

    Watch for further updates, here or on other threads in the forum.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 420 ✭✭Blame it on the


    df1985 wrote: »
    flying out of dublin airport wednesday at 6am,are flights likely to be disrupted due to big bad BILL?

    be thankful it's not Shannon. Check with the airport/airline on Tuesday. It will also depend on your destination as to whether or not your flight will be able to land.

    Have a safe trip.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    Wet wet wet :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 24 August, 2009
    _________________________

    This forecast will be basically a real shocker. Storms are lining up to bring frequent rain and wind to Ireland, starting with one already gearing up to arrive later today. After that, it's Bill (Tuesday night) and Bill's evil twin, a strong low heading in by Thursday night and Friday with the strongest winds of the summer.

    TODAY, enjoy any morning sunshine in the east, because more heavy showers are forming in western counties, and these will advance steadily eastward, to be followed by heavier and more squally showers by afternoon and evening. Winds will increase rapidly in the western half of Ireland to reach SSW 30-45 mph. These will be less gusty in the southeast but by evening it will generally be quite stormy across the country. Rainfalls of 10-25 mms are likely (heavier in the west). Highs will reach about 17 C in most places.

    TONIGHT the strong winds and showers will gradually move off to the east, with some clearing to follow, and lows near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will start off fine in most places with some mid-day sunshine, and just moderate S to SW winds. Highs will reach about 20 C. Cloud and rain will be sweeping in as the remnants of Bill arrive by evening in the west.

    TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY will be windy with periods of rain and the risk of a thunderstorm. Winds will increase rapidly overnight to reach SSE 30-50 mph with possibly higher gusts in the southwest. These will veer to WSW 30-55 mph during the day. It will also be warm and humid with highs near 20 or 21 C. Rainfalls of 30 mms are possible.

    THURSDAY will have a brief respite of dry weather before "Bill's evil twin" arrives with very strong winds and heavy rainfalls likely. There could potentially be gusts to 65 mph in more exposed places, and 55 mph generally, as this storm crosses the northern parts of the country overnight into Friday. Squally showers and gales from the west will follow on Friday. Temperatures may start out around 15-17 C when this hits, then fall to near 12 C.

    THE WEEKEND looks like a good time to mop up from all of this activity as a ridge of high pressure moves across the south and some dry, milder conditions prevail for a while, before more showers arrive later Sunday.

    Updates as required ... my Sunday weather was partly cloudy with a high near 22 C. ... Bill's current location is just east of Newfoundland near 50N 50W and heading east at 45 mph. It is still creating hurricane force gusts over the open Atlantic, and is forecast to race east to a position 200 miles west of Shannon by Tuesday evening, and near Donegal Bay by midnight Tuesday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    kerry1960 wrote: »
    Wet wet wet :D

    You sound like you enjoyed it :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 420 ✭✭Blame it on the


    Monday, 24 August, 2009
    _________________________

    This forecast will be basically a real shocker. Storms are lining up to bring frequent rain and wind to Ireland, starting with one already gearing up to arrive later today. After that, it's Bill (Tuesday night) and Bill's evil twin, a strong low heading in by Thursday night and Friday with the strongest winds of the summer.

    Sadly MT, the Irish weather never seems to shock me. Maybe just disappoint every now and again


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Monday, 9:30 p.m.
    _______________________

    Showers in central and western Ireland are rapidly weakening and many eastern sections may have a dry overnight period or nothing more than a trace to 1 mm of rain. Winds will remain fairly brisk all night from the SSW, and tomorrow still looks relatively pleasant in the south and east, with more frequent cloudy periods and showers in the northwest.

    Bill is now about 50 N, 40 W which places the rain around 35 W, heading rapidly for western Ireland. I continue to think that Bill's remnant low should track across Donegal Bay and western Scotland on Tuesday night, bringing some moderately strong S to SW winds and rainfalls averaging about 20-30 mms in the west, tapering down to 10-20 mms in eastern Ireland. These are moderate impacts but after so much persistent rain in some places, it won't take much to renew flooding.

    The next system continues to look stronger and you can refer to the previous forecast post for the thinking there, stressing that it will arrive in the west before mid-day Thursday and there won't be a long interval of dry weather between Bill and the "evil twin" to follow.

    My weather by way of contrast is sunny with a high of 23 C. We're expecting some showers tomorrow here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 25 August, 2009
    ___________________________

    TODAY will continue rather showery in the west, but eastern Ireland could have some sunny intervals through rather extensive higher cloud, with a lower risk of showers. All areas will have a steady southerly breeze of about 10 to 20 mph, and by afternoon it should be pleasantly warm for most at about 20 C.

    TONIGHT, heavier rain and wind (from post-tropical storm Bill) will arrive after sunset in the south-west and this will spread quickly to the rest of the country before morning. Winds will increase rather rapidly to SSE 20-40 mph with gusts to about 50 mph at times in the southwest and along the south coast. (Watch for updates as there is some risk of higher winds developing) ... Rainfalls will be about 20-30 mms by mid-day Wednesday and overnight lows will be near 13 C.

    WEDNESDAY will continue cloudy with periods of rain and possible thundershowers, and winds will continue rather strong from the SW veering more westerly late afternoon, at about 20-40 mph in most places. Highsr gusts are possible but will likely be localized to heavy showers or thunderstorms. This risk will not be confined to the south and west but this is where strong winds are more likely. Highs will be around 21 C and total rainfalls could reach 30-40 mms in places.

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT should be a brief calmer interlude between storms, and it may clear for a while before clouding over early morning. Winds will back to south again and fall off to about 15 mph.

    THURSDAY will become very windy with squally showers developing. Winds will become SW 30-50 mph with some localized gusts to 60 mph especially in the northwest around evening. Highs will be near 18 C but it will begin to turn cooler by evening.

    THURSDAY NIGHT and FRIDAY will remain quite windy (WSW 30-50 mph with some gusts to 60 in exposed areas) and cooler, with more squally showers, hail and thunder included. Temperatures will stay in a narrow range between 12 and 16 C.

    The weekend should be improved for a while before more rain arrives on Sunday; temperatures will be around 20 C.

    The plan is to keep a very close watch on developments after 6 p.m. as Bill approaches, so be sure to check in this evening or around midnight to read the updates here and on other Boards weather threads. Opinions vary as to how strong Bill may be ... I am taking a rather moderate approach at this point, but I will be watching for anything more severe developing. The system on Thursday looks stronger and I expect more extreme weather with that one. -- MTC

    Added at 1645h ... Not seeing any unusual developments with post-tropical Bill, the stronger winds will probably hit more to the south coast than the west coast due to the track ... the low is as expected near 51 N 22 W heading for landfall in west-central Ireland but the stronger part of the circulation will sweep around towards Cork, Waterford and the nearby Bristol Channel and southwest England overnight. Even there, maximum wind gusts are likely to be 55-60 mph at most, as the storm is now weakening compared to its intensity all day out in the Atlantic. Still expecting general rainfalls in the 20-35 mm range and some spot flooding in western districts that have already had excessive rainfalls. Will continue to monitor the progress of Bill. The "evil twin storm" for Thursday still looking more potent on the most recent guidance. Updates as necessary ...


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Tuesday, 8:50 p.m.
    _______________________

    Briefly, rain has spread across western half of Ireland and is steady if not torrential so far. Heavier bands of rain are indicated on satellite imagery closer to the centre which is now around 52 N 18 W. No significant change in the forecasts above, will update again around 11 p.m.

    My weather here today has been cloudy for most of the morning, a few light sprinkles of rain, trace accumulation, sun now trying to break through, 20 C at 1250 local time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Monday, 11 p.m.
    ______________________

    No changes to above forecasts ... centre of low is currently near 52.5 N 15 W and the area of rain is mainly onshore now; winds should pick up slightly later tonight in all but northwest Ireland where they will fall off to near calm for a while. I noted that the 18z GFS shows somewhat stronger winds now for Thursday afternoon on the west coast. More forecast updates later tonight as needed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 26 August, 2009
    ____________________________

    TODAY, moderate to heavy rain will continue for several more hours this morning, bringing totals to about 40 mms in some southern counties, 30 mms elsewhere, and some localized flooding could occur, as well as a brief thunderstorm. Winds over the eastern half of Ireland will remain strong SE to S at about 30-45 mph, while further west, winds are veering to SW 25-40 mph. Much lighter winds accompany the low centre across Galway, Mayo and south Donegal, into border regions and Northern Ireland.

    The afternoon may turn a little more pleasant with some sunshine possible at times, although scudding low cloud may try to hang on despite the warming of the atmosphere, so highs will be somewhere between 20 C under persistent cloud to 23 C if any longer sunny intervals materialize (there will be a brief interval of tropical air so it will also feel very humid by late morning and mid-day). A largely dry cold front is expected to clear the air completely by late afternoon and evening.

    TONIGHT will be clear in many areas, possibly more cloudy in the northwest, and winds will briefly fall away to light, allowing temperatures to fall to about 10 or 12 C (and possibly lower in a few low-lying rural areas). Cloud will begin to increase by sunrise in the southwest.

    THURSDAY will be a very active weather day, as "Bill's evil twin" makes his move on Ireland. This time, the rain will sweep in during the morning, strong southerly gales will develop, and veer to westerly gale to storm force winds especially over the west coast. Rainfall amounts of about 20-30 mms are possible, and winds will be in the range of 30-55 mph for many places, but could reach gusts of 70 mph in exposed west coast locations and on higher hills (80 mph mountain summits). With this sharp front, expect some thundery hail showers. Highs will reach 15-17 C but temperatures may fall to about 10-12 C in the strong westerly winds. All outdoor activities and especially hiking, sailing etc, are strongly discouraged especially in the afternoon hours as very stormy weather will set in rapidly.

    THURSDAY NIGHT will remain rather windy and cool with more passing showers of hail or thundery rain, but some may notice a brief lull between the main storm of the day and a secondary surge of strong winds after midnight (this interval more obvious in the northwest). Lows will be about 7-8 C. Winds will continue generally WNW 30-50 mph with some higher gusts.

    FRIDAY will be a blustery, frequently changeable day with more rain in the exposed west and north than in the south and east, although any place could pick up at least 5 mms and some will get 15-20 mms. Winds will continue strong from the west at about 30-55 mph, and it will be much cooler than recent days, with highs of 14-16 C (feeling like about 10 C out in the wind). It may be a little more tolerable in Dublin and Wicklow around to Waterford due to sheltering effects of the inland hills, but not that great.

    SATURDAY looks much improved over any of these days and most other Saturdays to boot, partly sunny, less windy (although still quite breezy in the north where showers could continue) and lows near 8 C, highs near 19 C.

    SUNDAY could bring some more rain but it also promises to warm up, so this rain may be more in the northwest than elsewhere, as highs push for 23 C in the southeast.

    NEXT WEEK looks a bit warmer and more settled -- the variable is the fate of a tropical system yet to be born, but which should come into existence tomorrow (Danny) in the Bahamas, move to Newfoundland by late this weekend but following a track further north than Bill, allowing (or caused by) a rising jet stream (hurray) which will give Iceland its long-awaited opportunity to be the storm capital of Europe this summer. If all that comes to pass, the weather could be quite a bit more pleasant next week in Ireland.

    (and how could it not be?)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    "a rising jet stream" - maybe it's well covered already here somewhere but what influences the jet stream and how is it tracked? is there a met type website that shows the jetstream and it's movements?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Joe Public wrote: »
    "a rising jet stream" - maybe it's well covered already here somewhere but what influences the jet stream and how is it tracked? is there a met type website that shows the jetstream and it's movements?

    http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,558 ✭✭✭weisses


    And this is what MET eireann has to say about next week

    The weather is not settling at all for early September and there will be more rain through the days of next week.

    Me confused?? not @ all :eek: :)

    M.T. Cranium ur better be right :D:P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Welsh Wizard


    weisses wrote: »
    And this is what MET eireann has to say about next week

    The weather is not settling at all for early September and there will be more rain through the days of next week.

    Me confused?? not @ all :eek: :)

    M.T. Cranium ur better be right :D:P

    He usually is, Met Eireann have been incorrect a few times since M.T. has been doing his excellent daily weather up date...

    To be honest I use nothing but this thread for my weather outlook now..

    Thanks agin M.T.... Great work and like so many on here, very grateful..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,558 ✭✭✭weisses


    Yeah I noticed that when Met eireann forecasted gales AFTER my polytunnel blew over .... :eek: could they be on a three day week ??? ;)


    Their Forecasting is way to general for a country like Ireland imo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 699 ✭✭✭glossy


    He usually is, Met Eireann have been incorrect a few times since M.T. has been doing his excellent daily weather up date...

    To be honest I do use nothing but this thread for my weather outlook now..

    Thanks agin M.T.... Great work and like so many on here, very grateful..

    :D me to, and pass on my new found knowledge to friends


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well, thanks very much, I wasn't expecting this thread to be what it turned into, I started it more as a discussion forum for forecasts and figured it would get into a regular exchange of ideas ... that has happened a few times and I welcome that ... but it seems to have taken on a life of its own.

    As to the weather next week, I wouldn't bet the farm on a sudden improvement, the jet stream does seem to be in a rising phase now, but much depends on the actual track taken by Danny (although to be honest, I view these things as jet stream dependent, so it would be making a false excuse to say that Danny dragged the jet stream back south if he comes a calling on Monday as some models suggest). With a name like Danny, I suppose it's inevitable; however, the official track does start off on an angle through Newfoundland that would direct Danny further north than the major models are currently doing. And beyond that glitch, there are signs of a gradual improvement even in models that show Monday-Tuesday being another wet and windy period. I may join that camp by forecast time tomorrow morning, but Danny is very much of a dubious proposition so far, he could hug the US east coast and try to move inland, which would signal a buckling jet stream pattern, or he could fail to organize much altogether and never make it past the subtropics. The official track that has come out is a sort of compromise between many possible outcomes, this storm is nowhere near as predictable as Bill was (yet).

    Let's focus more on improvements later next week and into the following weekend, about ten days out -- there does seem to be some model agreement now that high pressure builds over the British Isles in that time frame.

    Meanwhile, I continue to be concerned that tomorrow's fast-moving frontal system will have more impact than Bill and as it's coming through during the afternoon, more people will be out and about, doing their usual daily activities, so be forewarned that rapid changes may occur. The forecast updates later on should be interesting (I will post one around 11 p.m.)

    My weather here today is back to sunshine and about 23 C (not quite there yet, it's just past eleven a.m.) ... warm but not too warm.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Wednesday, 11 p.m.
    ___________________________

    Here's a full update on the forecast for tomorrow, after a mainly dry and rather calm night ...

    Periods of rain will begin in the west around 0400h and spread gradually to other regions through the morning. This rainfall is not expected to be overly heavy, perhaps 5-10 mms on average. Winds will be S 10-20 mph at this stage. By noon to 2 p.m., some squally showers will develop in the west and winds will rapidly increase to WSW 30-50 mph, with some higher gusts. There may be some clearing but more squally showers could develop. The cold front will rapidly cross the country, we'll have to see how it holds together, it may only be active to about the central regions before becoming rather sporadic for Dublin and the southeast (which would be around 3 p.m.) ... but the northwest will also see a delayed onset of the windy weather as the surface low develops overhead there around 1-2 p.m., so for Galway, Mayo, Donegal and other northwest to north-central counties, expect these stronger winds to be delayed to about 4 p.m. ... Temperatures will probably peak at about 16 or 17 C after the rain ends, but may then fall off gradually.

    Once the strong winds develop, they will likely fall off gradually to 20-40 mph for a while, then pick up again to 30-50 mph after midnight as a secondary front arrives. There could be higher gusts at times especially on exposed coasts and hills. Most of Friday will be similar, windy, cool with passing showers some containing hail. This will naturally die off to some extent in the east and southeast compared to other parts of the country. Highs will be around 15-17 C on Friday.

    Anyway, it promises to be an interesting weather day, but especially in the western half of the country.

    The frontal wave is currently forming up around 50 N 22 W and I've seen some ship reports from the flow developing behind the wave, suggesting a steady 40 knot wind already in place, and this despite the fact that the system has yet to deepen much. Remember, this won't seem like too much until the windshift passes your location, which is timed for about 1 p.m. southwest coast to 4 p.m. east coast. There won't be much development of the southerly wind ahead of this feature, just a steady light rain.

    Next update with the regular forecast at 0500 or so.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 27 August, 2009
    __________________________

    TODAY will start out cloudy with light rain developing, and a southerly wind of about 10-20 mph. This rain may get heavier by mid-day and in western counties, there will be squally showers followed by gusty SW to W winds of 30-50 mph. It may clear then for a while, but more squally showers could follow. These changes will proceed rather quickly eastward but the squally nature of the showers may be less pronounced by afternoon on the east coast. Also the winds will be more like SW 20-35 mph there. The northwest will have a slight delay before the blustery winds arrive (around 3 p.m.) as the developing low moves across that region. Highs today will be about 17 C. Higher gusts may develop on exposed coasts and higher slopes, and caution is advised with all outdoor activities in those regions.

    TONIGHT some may notice a brief lull in the strong winds but they will resume around midnight from more of a due westerly direction at 35-55 mph in the west, 20-40 mph in the east. More showers are likely, merging to periods of rain across Ulster. Lows will be generally around 7 or 8 C. It will feel quite a bit colder than in recent weeks.

    FRIDAY will continue blustery and cool with passing showers, squally in some western districts. The better chances for sunshine will be from Dublin around the southeast coast to Waterford, but even here cloud will be frequent. Winds will average W or WNW 25-45 mph but some much higher gusts are possible at times in exposed areas. Highs will be only 14-16 C.

    SATURDAY will probably be dry if somewhat cloudy but there could be a few brief showers in northern areas. It will remain somewhat cool with lows near 6 or 7 C and highs of 17 to 19 C.

    SUNDAY promises to be somewhat warmer at least in the south, but cloud and rain will be skirting the northwest coast and may move into western and northern districts at times. Strong southwest winds will develop, and highs may reach 21 C.

    MONDAY to WEDNESDAY could remain windy and showery, the outlook is very uncertain because it depends on the development of a far-away tropical storm, Danny, which may follow a path somewhat similar to Bill, or could do one of two other things that would improve the weather outlook in Ireland, namely, it could fail to develop at all and die out near New England, or it could move much further north and this would be associated with a warmer southwest flow in general and a rising jet-stream. Sorry I can't really be too precise with this, the signals are quite mixed, but I do think the trend is towards warmer and more settled weather, with higher pressure likely to build in at least after this Danny episode comes and goes.

    Updates may follow as I hope to track this front from about 1230 onwards, but if other Boards weather folk have some ideas to share, please do ...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    meteoalarm issued for donegal



    valid from 27.08.2009 07:05 CET Until 27.08.2009 23:59 CETRain
    Awareness Level: Yellow
    rainfall "Some heavy rain today in parts of west Ulster. 15 to 25 mm of rain likely."


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    yep looks heavy around 3pm.as if donegal needs for rain!!! more landslides probable i guess

    ukprec.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Thursday, 11 p.m.
    ____________________

    Maximum wind gusts reported today were 58 kts at Malin Head and 54 kts at Belmullet (preliminary). I think most other places in western Ireland probably saw peak gusts of about 40 kts, while in eastern Ireland it was more like 35 kts. You can add about 12% to those numbers to derive m.p.h.

    At present, there's a fairly good scattering of brief but sharp showers (based on radar) across the western counties, and these may make some further eastward progress. It will stay quite breezy and winds will tend to pick up again around 0300h as a secondary trough arrives.

    No major changes in the forecast outlook, Danny continues to torment the models and could be a player around Ireland by Tuesday night or Wednesday, but in any case, the flow does appear to be slowly lifting further north through next week, and although it may be quite breezy at times, I think the trend is going to be towards drier weather at least in the south and east, it may take a bigger lift to get the rain past the west and north.

    My weather today (I feel bad about this) at 3 p.m. is sunny and 26 C.

    We'll have to get this evened out.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Friday, 0400h
    _____________________

    Just an advance warning before I finish assembling a forecast today, some heavy showers that look thundery have developed across south-central Ireland moving rapidly southeast. These could contain some strong to damaging wind gusts as they head for the south coast and southeast counties.

    More with the general forecast in a while ...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 28 August, 2009
    _________________________

    TODAY will be cool and blustery with some heavy morning showers in the south, and more likely to form in other regions, particularly the northwest, but also there may be some sunny intervals. Highs will be about 15-16 C and winds will be WNW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts. Some of the passing showers could contain hail, thunder and could create mini-tornadoes in one or two places, but your chance of seeing one is something like one in a million. You may hear about one on the news though. The late afternoon and evening may turn fairly pleasant in the southwest as the wind there slackens.

    TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with longer clear intervals, although a few more showers could move through Ulster and possibly some areas further south. Lows will be rather cool in rural areas, 6-8 C, and 10 C in larger towns and near the west coast.

    SATURDAY is likely to be partly cloudy in the south and more overcast in the north, where there may be a few brief showers. Rain is likely to be edging into the southwest by evening but it may be fairly light. Highs will reach about 19 or 20 C.

    SUNDAY looks warmer but cloud and rain are going to be skirting the west and northwest coasts, so the best chance for dry weather and a bit of sunshine may be in the southeast. Winds will be picking up to about SW 20-30mph. Highs should reach 21 or 22 C in some eastern counties, but more like 18 C in the north and west.

    MONDAY will probably be showery and breezy but there may be some intervals of sunshine, with winds staying in the southwest veering slowly to west, and highs near 19 C.

    The rest of the week remains a bit uncertain as Danny continues to struggle to gain much of an active circulation; the models still try to bring this storm north into the jet stream and then east across the Atlantic mid-week, but at a higher latitude than Bill. This may not even be a real solution if Danny fails to develop. But if he does, the pattern still looks rather breezy and somewhat unsettled, although more for the north and west as the jet stream forces its way between Ireland and Iceland. I'm thinking that it may be a case of gradual improvement but it may turn out even better than that; also, the signals at present point to higher pressure around the following weekend.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 29 August, 2009
    ____________________________

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks possible in the east this morning. Some light rain may develop over the west and northwest, but amounts should be slight. Winds will also be a lot less gusty than the past two days, although a steady 10-15 mph in some northern areas. Highs will be around 18 C in the south and 16 C in the north.

    TONIGHT will become misty with periods of light rain becoming somewhat heavier by morning, with some fog developing, and rather warm lows near 14 or 15 C.

    SUNDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies but there could be some sunny intervals especially in the south (inland as fog may shroud the coasts). It will become rather warm and more rain is possible at times especially on the west coast and across the north. Winds will increase to SSW 15-25 mph and highs will average 19-21 C.

    MONDAY will become quite windy with showers followed by periods of rain later in the day, winds SW 20-40 mph, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

    TUESDAY is likely to be brighter with westerly winds, some passing showers, but longer sunny intervals, with highs near 17 C.

    From WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY, the models are showing a fairly strong wind event that evolves from the storm that absorbs Danny over Newfoundland. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in this whole scenario so I will just say that it looks rather breezy and somewhat unsettled through this period, in case these stronger winds fail to develop to the model strength, although that would be quite strong (gusts to about 50 mph by late Thursday and Friday) ... we'll have to keep an eye on this, but in any case, it looks like the following weekend should be fairly warm and dry.

    My weather on Friday was sunny to start, but cloudy after noon, with a few light showers around this evening. The high was about 25 C and it's supposed to stay about this warm for several more days here with mixed cloud and sunshine, and light east winds.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Saturday, 11 p.m.
    ________________________

    Well, not much on the radar, I thought maybe it was broken since this was a weekend.

    The frontal system now approaching Ireland is quite weak and although it will generate considerable cloud, rainfall is likely to be spotty and in some places may not give much if any accumulation.

    Otherwise, the forecast above seems okay, the models have been giving all sorts of different "looks" at the later part of the week as remnants of Danny (which never quite came together) and its associated low are likely to approach Ireland. For a while it was looking like a complex situation of lows transferring energy, winds heading around a large trough and trying to avoid Ireland ... but later model runs are returning to the earlier idea of a moderate wind event on Thursday or early Friday, and the way things have gone with model forecasts on this storm even 12-24 hours in advance, I would advise that this could all change yet again, so let's wait and see how things are looking around Sunday night. Almost anything could still happen in the time frame of Wednesday to Friday, from a severe gale to no impact at all, that's the sort of range of possible outcomes, which makes a moderate wind event the best choice at the moment.

    My local weather today was sunny, very warm (borderline hot) at 27 C.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 30 August, 2009
    _________________________

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy, although the sun could make a brief appearance around mid-day, most likely in the inland southeast. There will be drizzly light rain in some eastern counties this morning, and light rain in west coast counties at times all day; this could develop into heavier showers by afternoon moving east through central districts (watch for updates). The winds will pick up a little to SSW 10-25 mph, and highs will reach about 19 or 20 C.

    TONIGHT will likely see heavier showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Lows will be about 14 C and winds will become SSW 15-25 mph.

    MONDAY will be quite breezy to windy at times, SW 20-40 mph, and there could be several lines of heavy showers moving across the country, with a little warmer sunshine in between. Highs will reach about 20-21 C.

    TUESDAY will become fresher and less humid with more of a west-southwest breeze, still quite gusty at 15-30 mph generally, with highs of about 18 C. Showers may still be fairly frequent in the north and west.

    WEDNESDAY is now looking a little less windy than some of the speculations earlier, but still rather breezy, SW 20-40 mph with higher gusts, and frequent showers possible. This will be the remnants of failed tropical storm Danny, which needed some help from an ordinary low to get anywhere, and that "anywhere" seems to be about the same track that Bill took, a bit further north this time. This may yet change, and the range of possibilities is fairly large.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking quite breezy as well because once the "Danny" event arrives, it seems likely to loop around and try for a second round of strong winds, this time from the W to NW, so this period may turn a bit cooler. After that, somewhat improved weather should develop about the end of Friday and into the weekend, so at least the timing is not so bad.

    Updates from me or others (feel free to jump in) as the day progresses. Compared to most weekends, this one has not been too wet (yet) and I hope you have a pleasant Sunday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sunday, 7:45 p.m.
    ________________________

    Moderate to heavy rain gradually moving east from the western counties this evening, should cover much of Ireland eventually with rainfalls of about 20-30 mms, with more to come on Monday. Looks now that instead of a strong Danny trying to decide how far north to travel, it's more of a weak former Danny without the strength to alter the jet stream. The problem at this point is that the jet stream is lifting more rapidly over central North America than across the Atlantic so that is being postponed for a few more days; eventually I do think the weather pattern will improve towards the following week. Still not that sure of the details on Wednesday to Friday other than to say likely cooler than average, windy at times, and showery at times.

    We have hazy sunshine here today, seems to be a bit of forest fire smoke mixing into this haze and causing some mild discomfort. The fires are hundreds of kms away to our northeast but that's also the general windflow so it is wafting down over the Coastal mountain ranges and into this region. About 24 C at noon local time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 31 August, 2009
    ___________________________

    TODAY will bring a risk of heavy rainfalls especially in the south, with amounts (including what has already fallen) reaching 40 mms in some places, and generally over 20 mms. Periods of rain will be fairly steady through the morning (once they begin for eastern counties) and then further showers or thunderstorms could develop later. Any sunshine would be very brief, and it will be warm and humid with highs near 20 C. Winds will be generally SSW at 15-25 mph.

    TONIGHT will continue showery with rather strong southwest winds to 30 mph, and mild lows near 15 C.

    TUESDAY will become fresher with occasional showers re-developing after a few hours of partly sunny conditions, and winds westerly at about 15-25 mph. Highs will be about 17-18 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with occasional rain or showers, moderate SW to W winds, and highs near 16 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see a rather windy northwesterly flow with occasional showers, and highs continuing rather cool near 16 C. Overnight lows through this period will be around 8 C.

    NEXT WEEKEND, there may be some improvement especially on Saturday, while Sunday could be back to mostly cloudy conditions, but both days will probably be warmer than the three days preceding them, with highs near 19 or 20 C.

    Watch for updates on today's heavy rainfall.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Monday, 9 p.m.
    ____________________

    From now to midnight, the only risk for further heavy rain would likely be in Galway (city) and counties between there and Ulster. Further rains of 10-20 mms are likely in that region. Otherwise it looks fairly clear for most of southern and eastern Ireland this evening, with the slight risk of more showers developing probably well after midnight except in the southwest where they are now moving in, but these are spotty and would give only a few mms of rain. Will update again before midnight in case these develop further.

    My local weather is sunny, hazy and quite warm at about 25 C. If we could average out the two climates this year, everyone would be happy (it is too dry here, too wet there).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,584 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 1 September, 2009
    ____________________________

    TODAY may start out dry with increasing cloud in eastern counties, but heavy showers have already developed in the southwest. Eventually most regions will have a period of these heavier showers (some with thunder and hail) with 10-20 mms likely on average, and more spot flooding possible. Highs will reach about 17 C and winds will pick up during and after the showers, starting southerly then veering to westerly 20-40 mph. With the stronger winds there could be some brief sunny intervals by late afternoon.

    TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals at first, then low cloud will spread in followed by rain, mostly light this time, from remnants of "Danny." Lows will be around 8-10 C. Although this remnant storm is moving in, winds will actually drop off to lighter values for much of the night and tomorrow morning.

    WEDNESDAY will continue cloudy with periods of rain, but only 5-15 mms is expected (on average), as winds slowly pick up to stronger values by afternoon, westerly 15-25 mph. Sunshine will be rare but by late afternoon it may at least be brighter. Highs for the day will be 15-17 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking quite windy from the west to northwest, mainly in the 20-40 mph range but with some higher gusts. Both days will bring a few more showers and just brief sunny intervals, but rainfalls should be fairly light, 1-3 mms per day. Highs will be only 15-16 C and lows near 7 C.

    SATURDAY could be fairly similar to the past Saturday, with more cloud than sun, but not much rain in most places, and moderate westerly breezes. Highs should be around 17 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY will see another warming trend with some risk of another significant rainfall, although it's far enough out that I should mention some hope that this time, the fronts will sweep a bit further north in general. The models are definitely trending towards a dry spell after that, so keep your fingers crossed, there may be a nice spell of late summer weather after all (middle to end of next week).


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88 ✭✭networks


    on the rte news weather forecast 2nite,he said indications of a good spell of dry weather looks promising 4 the wknd and following week,thank god!last nite he said bad weather 2 continue and no signs of better weather on the horizon????must be a miracle!!! that new zealand man who predicts the weather seems 2b spot on!!!:cool:


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