How long before Irish reunification?

24-04-2019 12:14am #1

Just reading an article in today's Irish Times - Brexit lights touchpaper for next political firestorm – Irish unity - and the highlighted line stood out. The fact that the Unionist academic, Peter Shirlow, is actually saying he'd be surprised if there's a United Ireland in 15 years and not 50 or even 30 years is revealing. 15 years is nothing.

The figures tell an obvious story. The demographic shift is clear from school and third-level figures, and has been for several years. In 2010/2011 there were 163,683 Catholics and 120,397 Protestants in Northern Ireland schools from nursery up to second level. In the current school year the Catholic figure stands at 175,617, while the Protestant figure is down to 114,290. It was a similar story at university level.... “But there still should be a unionist majority,” says Shirlow. “Unification is not going to be as soon as republicans think. Gerry Adams said it would be in 2016, but that is three years ago and counting. I would be surprised if there is a united Ireland in 15 years’ time.” Feeney disagrees. At the start of 2012 he saw a united Ireland coming in about 25 years. Now he thinks it will happen in about 10. “It is going to be somewhere in the 2020s; that is the speed change is moving at,” he says.

The last census in 2011 put the Protestant population at 48%, just 3% more than Catholics at 45%.

More recent figures from 2016 show that among those of working age 44% are now Catholic and 40% Protestant. The difference is even more marked among schoolchildren with 51% Catholic, 37% Protestant.

Only among the over 60s is there a majority of Protestants with 57%, compared to Catholics on 35%.

Dr Nolan said: "Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation on the centenary of the state where we actually have a state that has a Catholic majority."
('Catholic majority possible' in NI by 2021)

David McWilliams, Demographics are shifting towards a united Ireland - we must have a plan

That Angela Merkel was in Dublin a week or two ago and making comparisons with the reunification of her own country speaks volumes for how the most powerful person in Europe sees Northern Ireland's medium-long-term position. That all-Ireland context for NI, rather than a UK context, was very significant.

Given the enormous changes that Brexit is making on top of the demographic change, how long do you think it will be before Ireland is reunified?

Your Face · 24-04-2019 12:16am

There's a lot people are taking for granted when speaking about reunification.

24-04-2019 12:17am

Indefinitely is my prediction.

TheValeyard · 24-04-2019 12:18am

20-30 years

Star Trek says not long.

2024

markodaly · 24-04-2019 12:46am

Decades off at least.

What we have seen from the Brexit freakshow is the question on what exactly will a United Ireland look like remains largely unanswered.

It is one thing to vote on an ideal, like the Brexit vote of 2016, but what exactly is Brexit. There are about a dozen versions of Brexit still doing the rounds and there is no clear majority for any of them.
That is why the details of what a UI is very important.

Do we rejoin the Commonwealth? What is the status of the Monarch in Ireland post UI. What about the flag and anthem? What about the electoral map and do we devolve more power to Local Authorities or curtail all executive power within the Cabinet? What will the status of the PSNI be? What about our Tax codes? What about the NHS or the education system? Will Irish still be compulsory in Ireland?

A 1001 questions need to be answered first before we go down this road.

There would have to be numerous votes on a UI in the south alone due to our constitution being amended multiple times.

Imagine the scenario. We vote for the idea of a UI, but when the details of a deal are fleshed out and the economic cost and reality are known, we reject it. Then what?

Brexit is a wake-up call for people selling simple emotional fairy stories.

The_Kew_Tour · 24-04-2019 1:00am

Dont think it will happen in my lifetime.

But we could have something like unity in everything but name.

Depends how well Ireland will do too. Never underestimate the power of strong economy in deciding loyalty.

Junkyard Tom · 24-04-2019 1:25am

30-40 years

I'd be surprised if it happened in less than 20 years. Ireland is gradually unifying economically/socially anyway which explains why a lot of the more bitter unionists are pro-Brexit.

kneemos · 24-04-2019 5:09am

A Scottish/NI union back in the EU is more likely.

Ireland doesn't want the North anyway.

Arghus · 24-04-2019 5:20am

I think all this talk of Reunification is our equivalent political delusion to the English political delusion of Brexit.

Great in theory, but very difficult in practice and much more trouble than it's worth.

It may happen some day, but people need to get real.

Badly Drunk Boy · 24-04-2019 5:43am

Where's the 'The Republic says No' option?

And how did Censored11 get two votes for the final option? Vote-rigging already?

piplip87 · 24-04-2019 5:54am

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/northern-ireland-and-opinion-poll-1.3822016%3fmode=amp

It seems that on 58% of Catholics would want it. Which is still fairly low.

At the end of the day if you take the heart and the romanticism out of the United Ireland debate and get down to what the real issues should be.

1) Healthcare - A man earning the average wage in the North with a wife and a few kids, what happens if one of the kids gets sick ? Down here absolutely fleeced, up there free for the user.
2) Council/Property tax. Down here fleeced again in this regard with no services for the majority in return. Up there waste collection, free recycling centres are just two examples.

We need to work alot on life, rent, housing and cost of living here to get any undecideds to vote for a United Ireland.

kneemos · 24-04-2019 6:03am

Imagine trying to negotiate with the unionists.

Christ on a bike.

Erik Shun · 24-04-2019 6:37am

I think a lot of people in theory, would like a reunified Ireland.
But in practice, the possibility of this happening peacefully is almost nil to my mind..

24-04-2019 6:53am

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

I believe it will happen eventually, as in 100 years from now. It would happen sooner if it were not for the likes of the New IRA putting obstacles in the way.

Many have this romantic view of a united ireland, but few have actually thought of how the reality would work in practice. There is the cost for a start, every second person in the north seems to be some sort of civil servant. People up there also have certain expectations in terms of public services which we are incapable of delivering on. As has been pointed out already we would have to deal with intransigent unionism. On top of all of that we would have to deal with terrorists groupings on both sides who would have have to keep "the lads" busy with criminality / drug dealing /extortion etc. to an even greater extent than they do now. Our security forces are not equipped to deal with that.

whisky_galore · 24-04-2019 7:07am

kneemos wrote: »

Imagine trying to negotiate with the unionists.

Christ on a bike.

Like trying to nail jelly to a wall.

They'd all have die off and become extinct first.

Samuel Vimes · 24-04-2019 7:20am

Hopefully never.
We have very little in common with that backward hole that is Northern Ireland and would be wasting valuable resources dealing with it and its dysfunctional population.

24-04-2019 8:16am

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

Samuel Vimes wrote: »

Hopefully never.
We have very little in common with that backward hole that is Northern Ireland and would be wasting valuable resources dealing with it and its dysfunctional population.

A lot of people share that view to the point that may prevent unification ever occurring.

Wanderer78 · 24-04-2019 8:19am

Samuel Vimes wrote:

Hopefully never. We have very little in common with that backward hole that is Northern Ireland and would be wasting valuable resources dealing with it and its dysfunctional population.

They look like us humans to me, and seem to be as dysfunctional as us to, but maybe I'm wrong

Samuel Vimes · 24-04-2019 8:21am

2011 wrote: »

A lot of people share that view to the point that may prevent unification ever occurring.

We live in hope.
It would be akin to inviting a family of travellers to move into your house and mind it while you are out working.

Erik Shun · 24-04-2019 8:22am

2011 wrote: »

A lot of people share that view to the point that may prevent unification ever occurring.

Isn't the word reunification misleading?
The only time this Island has been unified was under British control..there has never been a unified Irish state.
Don't think it can happen, as long as the liked of Arlene Foster are around, they won't allow it

Bob Harris · 24-04-2019 8:27am

As I understand it when there are more catholics than protestants then there will be unification?
Is a critical mass of catholics the only factor because it's all that's mentioned in the opening post.

Bob Harris · 24-04-2019 8:28am

kneemos wrote: »

Imagine trying to negotiate with the unionists.

Christ on a bike.

Dragging Christ into the negotiations wouldn't help.

seamus · 24-04-2019 8:42am

Minimum 20 years. Much, much longer if violence kicks off again.

Eggs For Dinner · 24-04-2019 8:43am

We respect our past (the good and the bad). Nordies seem to want to continue living in it. I've nothing in common with such people and wouldn't want anything to do with them

24-04-2019 8:46am

Ulster Says No. It will never happen

Bob Harris wrote: »

As I understand it when there are more catholics than protestants then there will be unification?
Is a critical mass of catholics the only factor because it's all that's mentioned in the opening post.

Not that simple.
Those of us that live in the ROI will have a say in this decision too.
As Samual Vines points out many on this side of the boarder are not too keen on the idea for the reasons stated in the posts above.

Beta Ray Bill · 24-04-2019 8:51am

piplip87 wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/northern-ireland-and-opinion-poll-1.3822016%3fmode=amp

It seems that on 58% of Catholics would want it. Which is still fairly low.

At the end of the day if you take the heart and the romanticism out of the United Ireland debate and get down to what the real issues should be.

1) Healthcare - A man earning the average wage in the North with a wife and a few kids, what happens if one of the kids gets sick ? Down here absolutely fleeced, up there free for the user.
2) Council/Property tax. Down here fleeced again in this regard with no services for the majority in return. Up there waste collection, free recycling centres are just two examples.

We need to work alot on life, rent, housing and cost of living here to get any undecideds to vote for a United Ireland.

This is the problem precisely!!

Also a huge number of people in NI are employed by the UK Government.
If they left the UK, all those people lose their jobs. What's that going to cost the Tax payer down south?
Also there's the huge issue (and cost) of policing the North

Everyone keeps talking about reunification opinions in the North without even thinking about the South.
As far as I am aware there would need to be a referendum on the issue, and I for one would certainly be voting against reunification.

The best thing for NI would for them to leave the UK and set up as their own country and then join the EU.

Bob Harris · 24-04-2019 8:51am

2011 wrote: »

Not that simple.
Those of us that live in the ROI will have a say in this decision too.
As Samual Vines points out many on this side of the boarder are not too keen on the idea for the reasons stated in the posts above.

I know but in the OP it's the only thing mentioned - catholic population in schools and in the general population as if once there is a catholic majority then automatically unification is on the cards. Who's to say most catholics wouldn't prefer the current situation regardless of majorities?

Personally I'd say unification is a long way off and I'd doubt if would happen this century.

zapitastas · 24-04-2019 8:57am

Bob Harris wrote: »

I know but in the OP it's the only thing mentioned - catholic population in schools and in the general population as if once there is a catholic majority then automatically unification is on the cards. Who's to say most catholics wouldn't prefer the current situation regardless of majorities?

Personally I'd say unification is a long way off and I'd doubt if would happen this century.

The biggest issue to determine how quickly events could unfold will be brexit. A disorganised exit will see a lot of people in the north looking to re-enter the EU through unification. An interview with a unionist farmer in fermanagh a few weeks ago was pretty telling. He said he was a unionist but at the end of the day his family can't eat a union flag so if he loses European subsidies that other options would have to be looked at and that the Dublin government looked to be doing more to protect the livelihoods of farmers than his immediate representative

threeball · 24-04-2019 8:58am

20-30 years

It was closer towards the end of 2018 than any other point in time due to the Brexit shambles and ineptitude of the DUP but the so called nationalists in the New IRA and other groups have pushed it back by years already with their latest actions and if they continue it will never happen.

Not many in the south are willing to suck up a big bill for the sake of reunification either.

The Satanist · 24-04-2019 9:09am

15-20 years

We will have a vote in approximately 10 years, with about 3 years to implement reunification. A combination of British payments and EU funding will fund the transition for a couple of decades after. Favorable FDI in border areas will aid the move from dependency in civil service employment to other industries. Shipbuilding will enjoy a renaissance in Belfast, employing tens of thousands. Derry will grow, this will spread to Donegal, helping the region flourish. Were will all live happily ever after. The end.

Censored11 · 24-04-2019 9:12am

Badly Drunk Boy wrote: »

Where's the 'The Republic says No' option?

And how did Censored11 get two votes for the final option? Vote-rigging already?

Whatchu talkin' bout Willis...
I only voted once.

How long before Irish reunification?

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