Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Friday, 18 December, 2009
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TODAY will be cold and dry in most of Ireland, with snow of varying intensity covering mostly the southeast counties. A further 1-3 inches may fall in some places, especially Wicklow. Otherwise, expect some wintry sunshine, a slowly thawing frost, and locally icy roads most of the morning, with the ice returning around sunset. Highs today may only struggle briefly above freezing in some areas, reaching highs of 2-5 C in most places. Winds will not be as strong except perhaps near the Wicklow coast and in Dublin where they may remain NNE 20-40 mph.

TONIGHT will become clear and very cold in most places, with some patchy low cloud, freezing fog patches, and black ice developing on roads. Lows could fall to -6 C in some rural sections, and -2 C even in larger towns. Winds will fall off to lighter values. There could be the odd light flurry near the coasts both southeast, and towards morning, northwest as well.

SATURDAY will see a bright and frosty start, with the ice slowly melting, then just about mid-day as cloud spreads in, it may feel a bit milder briefly, and there could be some rain showers. Highs for the day in this period will average 5-7 C. After that, a strong cold front will arrive, and blanket much of Connacht and Ulster in blowing snow, hail showers, and a strong NW wind reaching 25-45 mph (at least); some snowfalls of 2-6 inches are possible. Temperatures will drop off sharply to about -1 C and there may be blizzard-like conditions due to the blowing snow. The east and south coasts may only get the fringes of this snow but they will see the wind and colder temperatures.

SUNDAY will continue windy with periods of snow inland, mixed hail and cold sleety rain near the west coast, and a witches' brew of all kinds of wintry precipitation in many other areas. Some areas will see a further 1-3 inches of snow. Morning lows will be -2 to -5 C and afternoon "highs" only near zero to about 3 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY, the weather will be dominated by cold air and drifting low pressure that will bring lighter winds than the weekend, but from variable directions, giving all coasts some risk of onshore sea effect snow, hail or sleet. Some places, probably well inland and at higher elevations, could remain snow covered and get some additional snow cover from time to time. A widespread heavy snowfall seems unlikely at this point but if the maps changed a little, that could come into the forecast picture (basically it does not quite look cold enough at all levels). The temperature range in this period will be typically from lows near -2 C to highs near 6 C.

Around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the current indications are for a very gradual warming trend with a cold rain, still mixing with sleet or snow in some higher parts of central, western and northern counties. Temperatures will likely be in the range of 2 to 7 C.

Milder air should return shortly after Christmas and may peak around New Years Eve which could be a stormy time (wind and rain possibly).

The weather here today was quite bland, mild, foggy, some light rain, and temperatures in the 8-10 C range.

Updates when needed, and there's the other thread with thousands or perhaps millions of opinions about the snow potential. :cool:

Saturday, 19 December, 2009
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TODAY will become milder for a while, especially near the west coast where mist, drizzle and highs near 8 C are likely. Further inland and eastern Ireland, the morning chill will gradually give way to mostly cloudy skies, the odd passing sprinkle of rain or hail, and highs near 4 C. Winds will be rather light westerly until late afternoon when a strong front arrives (this is now approaching the 60 N latitude). When this goes through the northern counties late afternoon, winds will become NNW 30-50 mph, snow will develop and temperatures will drop to about 1-2 C quite rapidly.

From late today through Monday, be alert for icy road conditions, local blizzard-like conditions especially on open stretches of rural roads, and patches of freezing fog near open water in ponds and streams.

TONIGHT, the snow, blowing snow, and much colder weather will rapidly sweep south, bringing some accumulations of 2-4 inches especially to higher parts of the northwest, Ulster, and even scattered parts of central and southwest counties. The east and southeast are more likely to see light flurries, perhaps mixed with sleet. Lows tonight will reach -3 C for most, and winds will increase to NNW 30-50 mph, adding quite a strong chill.

SUNDAY will continue windy and very cold with passing snow showers, some hail or sleet near the west coast, risk of thunder, and winds NW 20-40 mph, with highs struggling to reach 2-3 C.

MONDAY will be a similar day although with winds more westerly and falling off to 10-20 mph, the snow showers are likely to be more confined to higher parts of the western counties by afternoon. Lows of about -4 C will be followed by highs of 3-5 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will bring further wintry cold, sleet or wet snow at times, low cloud, fog and mist, with frequent icy conditions. Temperatures are likely to be stuck in the narrow range of -2 to +3 C most of this period.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Friday) will likely see a thaw setting in with light to moderate rain, fog and southeast to south winds, veering to west later in the day, with highs near 8 C.

The further outlook calls for milder and at times stormy weather with the risk of heavy rainfalls developing.

It has been a rather nondescript day here, foggy and mild with light rain at times, near 10 C. Snow has started in the eastern US cities and threatens to dump quite a heavy amount by Sunday (15-20 inches in some parts). The deep freeze over the Canadian prairies is slowly relenting but a reload for some central regions appears to be forming over the central arctic islands.

Updates may follow; or get the views of thousands of other weather watchers in the cold weather thread ... as I say, milder for a time, doesn't mean the cold spell is over by any means, a reinforcement is rapidly approaching. :eek:

Sunday, 20 December, 2009
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TODAY will be cold with some sunny intervals in the east and south mainly, and some showery outbreaks of snow or hail in the west and north for the most part, although some of these could reach the drier east and south at times. Higher inland portions of Ulster and Connacht could see 2-4 inches of snow and local blizzard-like conditions, although this will be rather hit or miss. Winds of NW 20-40 mph will add more chill to daytime highs that may not rise above 2 C in more snowy areas, or 4 C in general. Watch out for black ice this morning, and locally icy sections all day (combined with the glare of the sun as another driving hazard in some cases).

TONIGHT will be another very cold, frosty night with the local snow showers dying off to some extent, although a few may remain active. This will leave many places both clear and snow-covered, which could drop temperatures in a few places to -5 or even -7 C. Other locations with a bit more cloud will stay around -2 C. This in general will lead to widespread icy conditions on the roads and pavements.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will feel the effects of an arctic low pressure centre that is slowly filling and dying out, but drifting through Ulster from Scotland. The net result of that should be considerable low cloud, patchy snow or wet snow, freezing drizzle in a few spots, but a slight moderating trend near the west and south coasts as winds come in from the warmer coastal waters. Highs may struggle up to 5-7 C in those locales, while it stays much closer to freezing in much of the east and north, as well as some central counties. Snowfall in general is not likely to be too heavy, more of a "snizzle" as some call it, with patchy freezing fog in the overnight hours when temperatures fall a little below freezing in many areas.

By WEDNESDAY, milder air is going to be sluggishly trying to push back north from the Channel and southern England into the rest of the British Isles, and this could lead to a period of wet snow lasting into THURSDAY, mixing with sleet or cold rain, and fog or low cloud, as temperatures edge very slowly upward to about 3-5 C. Any snow that may have fallen this weekend or later will be slowly melting through this period, so by Christmas Eve, it may be more of a foggy scene than a "white Christmas" but some higher inland locations could be fortunate and keep some of their snow.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Friday) is still looking a bit milder again with rain at times, a strengthening southerly wind, and highs of 6-8 C.

The two days following Christmas are currently looking rather windy and wet with temperatures back into the early December double digit range again.

From then to New Years, the models are suggesting that cold air, trying to work back to the west, may set up a battleground frontal zone near Ireland but may again be overcome by mild, windy weather; from what we can see of early January, though, this mild interval may not last all that long and January may bring more of this unusually cold and even snowy weather.

We've had a mild, foggy and drizzly day here, with a high of near 10 C. Plenty of snow has fallen in the northeast U.S. cities, some reports of 20-25 inches in the Washington DC area, still snowing hard in New York and just starting now in Boston.

By the way, I hope to keep providing forecasts at more or less regular intervals but if I do disappear for a day or two here or there, please accept my apologies (also if the weather turns mild on Christmas Day, same thing).

Tuesday, 22 December, 2009
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The general trend on the models is to maintain the cold weather a bit longer, possibly into Christmas morning, and this may at least preserve whatever snow falls or remains on the ground. It's also looking like more of a struggle for the milder air to push as far north as Ireland when it does finally start to move back north.

Having said that, I'll just give a brief forecast (as I expect a lot of regular readers have better things to do for a few days) ...

From now to Thursday, I continue to think it will be a rather icy and messy mixture of cloud, some clear patches promoting freezing fog, flurries of rather wet snow, sleet, cold rain, hail ... but nothing too heavy. Wednesday morning could see a bit more organized snow or sleet especially over higher parts of central counties. Temperatures will continue to rise very slowly from day to day, on the whole, depending on your cloud cover more than anything else, and there will be a milder feel to the air near the west and south coasts. Temperatures are likely to be confined to the range of -4 to +4 C.

By Christmas Day, there is still the indication of milder weather eventually, but now it looks more as though the cold air will be flushed out slowly, so precipitation could stay snow or sleet for a while before changing to rain; later in the day, it's likely to be foggy with sleety showers and temperatures probably 6-8 C.

After Christmas, I expect it will stay rather dull and dreary, the strong storm earlier indicated seems to have been postponed more to the 28th now, and on the track it's taking, there is no guarantee that it will knock the cold air out of the picture, especially in the northern third of the country, so I'll keep an eye on that because if the models are trending that way, they may suddenly start suggesting another snowfall event.

Then this peak of energy for New Years Eve and Day is also on a rather marginal track for milder temperatures as well, so really, there is some risk of wintry weather returning at times, especially in northern counties.

It has been a rather cool, mainly dry day here as low pressure weakened to such an extent that it had no moisture left -- so now we have a rather cold foggy night with colder air seeping into the region from the northeast. The temperature here at 11 p.m. is about 2 C.

I'll keep an eye on developments, and continue to report if possible. Take care on the roads, I'm reading on the other threads that they are quite icy in many rural areas.

Wednesday, 23 December, 2009
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TODAY will bring some intervals of light snow mostly in central counties and the inland west, as it has become a bit too mild now near the west coast for snow; light rain or sleet might fall there. The east could remain largely dry, as this snow is only going to amount to 1-2 cms at most, and may have some trouble holding together especially with the hills to cross. But a few flurries are possible anywhere. It should be a little milder for some places today, but highs will be quite variable, 2 to 6 C mostly.

TONIGHT will see cloud dispersing gradually, more patchy freezing fog and icy roads will result. Any light snow should end fairly soon after sunset. Lows will reach values similar to the past few nights, -5 C in colder locales, -1 C an average for many of the larger cities.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) will become generally cloudy and it may be slightly milder, but with light sleety rain or wet snow in places. Highs will be generally 3-5 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY holds some promise of a brief morning snowfall, and some places will manage to hold on to previous snow cover to enjoy a white Christmas morning at least, but the day is likely to turn milder with a bit of sporadic rain, a light fog or mist, and temperatures struggling up to about 6-8 C.

SATURDAY (St Stephen's Day) will be similar, cloudy with sleet or light rain, and temperatures near 6 C.

From here on, the models are continuing with the theme advertised yesterday, a battleground scenario as milder air tries to push the cold air further north, but not that successfully. A remnant storm from the central Atlantic will arrive around Wed 29th with strong east winds and probably rain for most, although it could stay sleet or snow in higher parts of the north. The models at present don't show much further development into the last two days of the month, but I'm holding onto the risk of a strong storm in this time frame.

I'll check in again when I can ... hope you're having an enjoyable Christmas season and staying safe and healthy. The weather for us today (Tues) was dull, foggy and rather cold (4 C). They are digging out of the big snowstorm on the east coast in fairly calm and not overly cold (for them) conditions.

Brief update ... 24 Dec 09
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I am not seeing anything too different from the previous forecast, but as many will be travelling at this time, I would just say this (about that) ... take care on any long road journeys because you're almost bound to run into some icy sections of roads tonight or early tomorrow, especially through the central and northern counties. The main weather feature affecting the Christmas forecast is a warm front that could easily start off overnight with a mixed bag of treats, like freezing drizzle, sleet, snow, a little hail, but will likely see all these slowly turning to rain in the morning at some point, perhaps more like afternoon or evening in the north.

A little milder on the 26th, turning a bit colder again with possible flurries on the 27th, then we wait to see how a potentially nasty situation develops from the 28th through the 30th, as slow-moving lows try to push all this colder air well away from Ireland, but most of the models show them having a lot of difficulty and with the cold air eventually winning the battle and re-establishing dominance. This could lead to several days of sleet, strong NE winds and snow accumulating on hills and in northern counties more generally, with rain joining the fray around the south and southeast coasts.

More about that in the days ahead. It's quite possible I will retire to my fortress of solitude until some time on the 26th or even 27th; all the best for Christmas.

A seasonal picture follows as my Christmas card to boards.ie ...

Saturday, 26 December, 2009
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Just a brief update as I look at the developing situation towards New Years.

Milder today, and turning a bit colder again on Sunday. This sets up for a frontal battleground scenario from late Monday on, and the various models not totally in agreement on the details.

There is likely to be an interval of rain in the south, sleet in some central counties, and snow in the north, followed by the sleet and snow moving south to change (eventually) precip to all snow in all areas before New Years Eve.

There is some risk of a heavy snowfall or even blizzard-like conditions developing at some point in parts of eastern Ireland in particular.

Details are probably going to remain somewhat vague until models begin to converge on one solution (the track of low pressure through either northern France or southern England being the main point of difference -- the European model is probably most in favour of snowfall at this point).

And so, I hope to provide a more definitive forecast of this period by the next update or installment. We enjoyed a sunny (if at times misty) Christmas Day here with a rather cool high of about 4 C. I hope it gets mild enough for you to melt all your ice, then it can turn cold again with the ground at least safe to walk or drive on. I gather that has already taken place in many areas but not quite all yet.

Monday, 28 December, 2009
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TODAY will be cold and mainly dry with some sunshine once any freezing fog dissipates. South coast districts may see thicker cloud developing mid-day with winds picking up to ESE 15-30 mph. Further north it will be less windy but whatever east wind develops will feel quite raw. Highs will only reach 1-3 C on average and possibly staying below freezing in central counties. The south coast may reach 5 C.

There may also be some mixed wintry showers this morning in parts of the northwest and north.

TONIGHT will stay dry and cold, except for some sleet moving into the south coast, turning to snow inland (but not moving in very far). More freezing fog and icy roads will develop, and lows will vary from -7 C in coldest spots to near -1 C elsewhere (1-2 C south coast).

TUESDAY, the sleet or snow will move slightly further north and some snow showers could develop elsewhere. Winds will increase to E 20-40 mph, and highs will remain in the very cold -1 to +2 C range for most. Some inland south central areas could see 5-7 cms of snow. Model runs continue to show a variety of possible outcomes, one (the UKMO) seems to be indicating potential for heavy snowfall in Ireland by later Tuesday and Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY, with east winds remaining rather strong and raw, the snow may move a bit further north and become heavy on some southeast hills as well as across the south inland, with sleet continuing near the coast. A further 5-10 cms may fall in the southern half of the country especially on east-facing upland areas, and there is some chance of this snow spreading further north to give 10-15 cms in some central counties and 5-15 cms in the north. Within the precip zone, the lows and highs will be in a narrow range of -2 to +2 C. Further north, another cold overnight near -7 C will be followed by daytime readings near zero C. Winds may begin to gust as high as 45 mph at times from the east.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY the situation is not totally resolved, but it seems likely to remain cold with the more organized snow moving back south and offshore, while sea effect bands of snow may develop in northeast winds of 20-40 mph. Temperatures will remain very cold and there may be ice fog at night, some areas of freezing daytime temperatures, and icy roads here and there. We should be alert to the chance of heavy snow or even blizzard conditions in some eastern counties.

The longer range outlook is swinging back to continued cold, raw easterlies, after a more settled cold period around the weekend of 2-3 Jan, with some earlier suggestions (between forecast times for me) of milder southerlies in the following week not showing very prominently now. In other words, Ireland may be heading into a prolonged cold spell, and with these mixed chances for snowfall, it seems only a matter of time until there are heavy snowfalls and possibly near Dublin as well to affect large numbers of people.

The weather here on Sunday was clear again with the overnight heavy frost persisting in the shade while in the bright sunshine it felt a bit on the warm side despite peaking at 4 C.

I think it's a possibility too, you can get thunder-snow or thunder-sleet either if you have strong frontal dynamics above the cold surface layers, or when sea-effect showers become intense. The lightning is generated somewhere around 2-4 km above the ground in these winter situations and is associated with heavy rates of falling precip, especially if there is ice involved at some layer above the surface.

Wednesday, 30 December, 2009
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TODAY will continue bleak and raw with a strong east wind, rain mixing with sleet, snow above 150 metres asl, and a trend towards more snow in the mix by afternoon. Temperatures are stalled out around 2-4 C and won't be rising much if at all, possibly dropping to 1-3 C by afternoon, as winds continue to blow from the east at 20-40 mph (areas around Limerick could see even stronger winds 30-50 mph as a stronger gradient develops in north Kerry, Limerick and Clare this afternoon).

TONIGHT will see what's left of rain or sleet turning to snow, with accumulations in many areas by morning (1-3 cms mostly, 3-7 cms on some hills). Winds will become NE 15-30 mph with lows near -1 C.

THURSDAY will become very cold with snow showers, squally at times, possible thunder-snow around Dublin, and accumulations that may range from 5 to 15 cms in eastern Ireland (2-5 cms more likely in the west). Some sun may get through the widespread cloud cover, and temperatures will stall near zero C (2-4 C near the east coast where wintry showers could become mixed with hail and sleet). Winds will be NE 20-40 mph. Parts of Ulster could see temperatures dropping to -4 C by evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT, New Year's Eve, will continue windy, very cold with local snow showers giving further accumulations of 2-5 cms, and temperatures dropping to about -3 C, with winds NE 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, passing snow showers, heavy in some eastern and northern counties, and very cold, winds NNE backing at times to NW, 15-25 mph, and highs only -2 to +2 C.

THE WEEKEND looks partly cloudy with longer clear intervals at night, some risk of freezing fog, very cold temperatures in the range of -7 to zero C for most places, and some further snowfalls although not much away from the north and northwest coasts.

Around Monday or Tuesday there may be another interval of cold east winds and snow mixing with hail at times, temperatures near zero C after another very cold morning on Monday near -8 C in places.

This cold spell really doesn't have much quit in it, with high pressure settled in quite snugly over southeast Greenland, and storms looping around in leisurely circles in the central to western Atlantic -- it all reminds one of the winters of the 1960s (some of the better ones). The big question is, can January sustain this pattern for 3-4 weeks and go into the record books as the "long awaited return to real winter," or will it give way to a milder pattern? I'm thinking that it may stay cold for 3-4 weeks.

As part of the developing strong El Nino, we seem to be heading for a mild, dry pattern although with some rain here on New Years Eve; tonight and tomorrow are expected to be cloudy and mild like Tuesday was (high of 6 C). A substantial snowfall is expected in New England this weekend (2-3 Jan).