FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Slashermcguirk · 03-02-2021 3:00pm

No i get February is the coldest month statistically, I am just surprised that January doesn’t tend to be as consistently cold. Many of the snowfalls I can remember are latter half of February up to mid March. I can recall about 3-4 St Patrick’s days with snowfall or flurries since 2005. January is far less reliable than I would have thought it should be.

Anyway bring on some more upgrades hopefully.

compsys wrote: »

Not at all. There's always a time lag.

February is often the coldest month in a lot of northern hemisphere countries.

I think some of the confusion arises because many in Ireland regard February as spring.

But meteorologically speaking, February is very much a winter month, so there should be no surprise that it's often the coldest and snowiest

Also sea temps in Feb and March are at their lowest so for an island like us in particular it means we often get our coldest weather around this time of year.[/quote]

typhoony · 03-02-2021 3:01pm

compsys wrote: »

Not at all. There's always a time lag.

February is often the coldest month in a lot of northern hemisphere countries.

I think some of the confusion arises because many in Ireland regard February as spring.

But meteorologically speaking, February is very much a winter month, so there should be no surprise that it's often the coldest and snowiest.

Also sea temps in Feb and March are at their lowest so for an island like us in particular it means we often get our coldest weather around this time of year.[/quote]

Average temps are higher in Feb than Jan

Nqp15hhu · 03-02-2021 3:02pm

Calibos wrote: »

Touch and Go with the isobars on that last frame for me in Bray. Either I get lucky and have the longest sea fetch possible from Blackpool and Morecambe Bay for powerful streamers galore.....or......I have the shortest Sea fetch possible because of the Anglesey Shadow

It looks to be a straight easterly to me. Perhaps ENE.

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 3:04pm

Sea temps usually being at their coldest in Februray into March often tip the balance in our favour for snowfall. Where as these events in December and January can fall the wrong way because the sea temps are that bit higher. Another factor is the Atlantic tends to be quieter in Februray. Blocking conditions are more likely going into spring than in the early part of winter

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 3:07pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I think even -20. Central Sweden and Norway are between -15 and -20 degrees this week with a lot of snow. Helsinki has been pounded recently too

I see even Berlin and Copenhagen much further south are also much colder this week than recent weeks and they are going much colder over the coming days

In terms of -15 uppers I'd say Jan 1987 hit that - around 12 or 13 Jan at a guess

Calibos · 03-02-2021 3:08pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It looks to be a straight easterly to me. Perhaps ENE.

Thats my point. Those wind directions indicated by the isobars put Bray on a knife edge where it could be a snow feast or a famine. ENE is what I want in Bray because it gives a 220km sea fetch whereas just a slight change in Wind direction to a straight Easterly gives me a 95km sea fetch with the Anglesey shadow ruining things.

03-02-2021 3:19pm

Calibos wrote: »

Thats my point. Those wind directions indicated by the isobars put Bray on a knife edge where it could be a snow feast or a famine. ENE is what I want in Bray because it gives a 220km sea fetch whereas just a slight change in Wind direction to a straight Easterly gives me a 95km sea fetch with the Anglesey shadow ruining things.

Its ENE which will probably be NE on the day

Artane2002 · 03-02-2021 3:20pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

In terms of -15 uppers I'd say Jan 1987 hit that - around 12 or 13 Jan at a guess

I think the -16c isotherm crossed the west coast in 1987, mental!

Villain · 03-02-2021 3:23pm

Did I ever mention 23 is my favorite number

GEFS member 23 shown here just for the fun of it really but also shows how some members really go for it

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 3:24pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I think the -16c isotherm crossed the west coast in 1987, mental!

Yeah, that was the easterly by which all others will forever be judged. Never known cold like it.

Calibos · 03-02-2021 3:28pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

Its ENE which will probably be NE on the day

Great. An IOM Shadow instead of the Angelsey Shadow. :mad::mad:

:D

Zogabomb · 03-02-2021 3:47pm

Calibos wrote: »

Great. An IOM Shadow instead of the Angelsey Shadow. :mad::mad:

:D

Hey Calibos, I'm only down the road from you in Shankill and we did great in 2010 and 2018, we got a nice covering a few weeks back. I'm up the back of Brady's so not right on the coast but it always amazes me how even 1km can make a difference.

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 4:00pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I think the -16c isotherm crossed the west coast in 1987, mental!

I remember back in January 1895 and i could distinctly see the upper air was purple over me. Yes i am a time traveller. The burden has been finally lifted revealing this!

or maybe it was from a chart Sryan posted in the historic winter thread:)

03-02-2021 4:00pm

Calibos wrote: »

Great. An IOM Shadow instead of the Angelsey Shadow. :mad::mad:

:D

None of those issues on the BBC news 24 graphics just now for Sunday
A clatter of snow from Dublin South to Wexford with a particular emphasis on Bray

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 4:17pm

ICON first of the 12Zs out and no surprises here

Villain · 03-02-2021 4:22pm

ICON first of the 12z out and its holding, maybe a little better

Villain · 03-02-2021 4:28pm

Certainly better far into FI!

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 4:31pm

Yeah much better than the 00Z, keeps the Atlantic at bay all the way to the end of the run

Arpege a belter out to 114 as well

Arduach · 03-02-2021 4:36pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I think we did from a bitter northerly during the Christmas holidays at one stage during the 90s. I can't remember the year, maybe Syran could shed more light on it. What I do remember is an intensely cold but dry and sunny cold spell, we had sub zero temperatures day and night. I remember Scotland in particular getting daytime highs below -20C but I think it was also dry there too. We had a snowy Christmas holiday event as well in 2000 I think but that spell was not quite as cold as it was an unstable easterly.

1995. Altnaharra -26.2C i think. 25-31 December serious cold blast.

pad199207 · 03-02-2021 4:37pm

Ticking along nicely

Nqp15hhu · 03-02-2021 4:45pm

The cold air is a few hours later on this run of ICON.

Reckless Abandonment · 03-02-2021 4:57pm

Yeah a little slower and further north upto 102 hours on the gfs...

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 5:04pm

Icon is great, Aperge is great (both mix in more of the Scandi air to my untrained eye) and GFS is keeping the lows of the southwest further at bay so should be excellent as it rolls out further. This is happening....

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 5:05pm

A little slower alright but looks to be better in the long run. Lows readily sliding under the block

ninebeanrows · 03-02-2021 5:08pm

Lovely UKM 144hr

UW144-21.GIF?03-17

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 5:09pm

Streamers from Rathlin Island in the North to Mizen in the South by Monday morning on the Icon (with apologies for those in between affected by the IOM and Anglesea)!

BLIZZARD7 · 03-02-2021 5:13pm

UKMO 12z is a snowfest and synoptically superb

Reckless Abandonment · 03-02-2021 5:13pm

Where is that big low going to go

pic upload

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 5:13pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Lovely UKM 144hr

The only issue I have with some of these runs, while synoptically very nice, is that sea based convective potential looks limited. I'd like to see lower heights generally. Low cloud tops, snow showers look light to moderate at best in the absence of some embedded trough lines.

Something like this...

arpegeeur-0-114.png?12

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 5:18pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The only issue I have with some of these runs, while synoptically very nice, is that sea based convective potential looks limited. I'd like to see lower heights generally. Low cloud tops, snow showers look light to moderate at best in the absence of some embedded trough lines.

We'll take 4 days of light to moderate snow showers!

Mr_A · 03-02-2021 5:18pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

A little slower alright but looks to be better in the long run. Lows readily sliding under the block

Really enjoying this thread but sometimes get lost on some terminology. Would like to understand what folks mean when they talk about the lows "sliding under" like this and what the upshot is? I gather it's good.

lucernarian · 03-02-2021 5:19pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The only issue I have with some of these runs, while synoptically very nice, is that sea based convective potential looks limited. I'd like to see lower heights generally. Low cloud tops, snow showers look light to moderate at best in the absence of some embedded trough lines.

Something like this...

The heights and pressure are fine in that chart (as an example)?

teddybones · 03-02-2021 5:22pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Streamers from Rathlin Island in the North to Mizen in the South by Monday morning on the Icon (with apologies for those in between affected by the IOM and Anglesea)!

I will cry if that happens and my in laws, all 7 siblings, partners and kids will actually lynch me because this is what happened in 2018 for wicklow town and looks to be happening again and I am their resident weather 'guru' (I just follow boards) . And I don't think I can cope with their anguished disappointment again. In 2018 it was 'when is the snow coming, when is the snow coming' with a great effing Anglesea shadow. But Wicklow was in a direct easterly and we got not so much as a flake until Emma roared in and gave us a dumping but was nerve-wracking to say the least.
Am hoping the winds veer more north easterly. Always a danger of IOM but didn't affect us in 2010. The fetch from a direct easterly is hopeless. Wicklow head is the closest point to the UK mainland from the Republic. I am doomed of that happens. They are already asking me is the snow coming. And when. I despair. Slight nudge ðŸ™

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 5:23pm

Mr_A wrote: »

Really enjoying this thread but sometimes get lost on some terminology. Would like to understand what folks mean when they talk about the lows "sliding under" like this and what the upshot is? I gather it's good.

Low pressure systems from the Atlantic are going underneath the cold block instead of blasting over us and ending the cold spell. The upshot is the cold lasting longer and also the chance of frontal snow with a low pressure system skirting the south coast.

Maybe one of the more knowledgeable posters can give a better explanation.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2021 5:24pm

lucernarian wrote: »

The heights and pressure are fine in that chart (as an example)?

Aye, much more precipitation with a chart like that. Potentially isolated thunderstorms too. More moisture with the track over the north sea too and a longer sea track over the Irish sea.

There are trade offs though - a scenario like that might not last as long + temperatures a teeny bit milder.

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 5:25pm

A cracking set of 12Zs tbf. Bring on the ECM

KingdomRushed · 03-02-2021 5:28pm

GEM is rolling out and also an upgrade in the near term. I wouldn't be too worried about GFS precipitation it actually looks hefty enough from Tuesday and near constant along the east coast at least

snowstorm445 · 03-02-2021 5:28pm

ICON and UKMO prolong the spell past midweek whereas the GFS blows up a low pressure system in the Atlantic which brings in milder air by Thursday. Either way some cold and wintry days to come next week for Ireland it would seem

TheMilkyPirate · 03-02-2021 5:30pm

GEM keeps the upgrade train rolling.

lucernarian · 03-02-2021 5:31pm

snowstorm445 wrote: »

ICON and UKMO prolong the spell past midweek whereas the GFS blows up a low pressure system in the Atlantic which brings in milder air by Thursday. Either way some cold and wintry days to come next week for Ireland it would seem

What is GFS para showing? I thought it was verifying better

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 03-02-2021 5:31pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

GEM keeps the upgrade train rolling.

When does this move to the sub 120 thread !

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 5:34pm

Good old GFS blowing up lows as per usual, if the other models don't waver that will be flabbier in future runs.

Let's see does it have much support from its own members,

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 5:36pm

lucernarian wrote: »

What is GFS para showing? I thought it was verifying better

Not seeing an update to the GFS P yet, this mornings run was similar to the operational. Last night's control run was fantastic.

Artane2002 · 03-02-2021 5:37pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Not seeing an update to the GFS P yet, this mornings run was similar to the operational. Last night's control run was fantastic.

I don't think it updated since yesterday's 6z.

Rebelbrowser · 03-02-2021 5:44pm

teddybones wrote: »

I will cry if that happens and my in laws, all 7 siblings, partners and kids will actually lynch me because this is what happened in 2018 for wicklow town and looks to be happening again and I am their resident weather 'guru' (I just follow boards) . And I don't think I can cope with their anguished disappointment again. In 2018 it was 'when is the snow coming, when is the snow coming' with a great effing Anglesea shadow. But Wicklow was in a direct easterly and we got not so much as a flake until Emma roared in and gave us a dumping but was nerve-wracking to say the least.
Am hoping the winds veer more north easterly. Always a danger of IOM but didn't affect us in 2010. The fetch from a direct easterly is hopeless. Wicklow head is the closest point to the UK mainland from the Republic. I am doomed of that happens. They are already asking me is the snow coming. And when. I despair. Slight nudge ðŸ™

I wouldn't worry, winds will veer this way and that. You should get your fill at some stage.

Mr_A · 03-02-2021 5:48pm

Update from Met Éireann

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1357004955501146117

nacho libre · 03-02-2021 5:52pm

Actually given the jet stream profile, the GFS scenario isn't that unlikely. It will be hard to sustain the cold with an active jet courtesy of the cold over north America. The best we can hope for is that the GFS is underestimating the strength of the block and that lows will slide.. Mogrep must have seen this development too, but favoured the block being resolute enough to stop the mild winning out.

Let's see what the ECM shows.

Arduach · 03-02-2021 5:58pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Actually given the jet stream profile, the GFS scenario isn't that unlikely. It will be hard to sustain the cold with an active jet courtesy of the cold over north America. The best we can hope for is that the GFS is underestimating the strength of the block and that lows will slide.. Mogrep must have seen this development too, but favoured the block being resolute enough to stop the mild winning out.

Let's see what the ECM shows.

Hopefully as MT pointed out a few days ago, this will be a wintry spell like 1895 and others, where both sides of the Atlantic are cold.

lucernarian · 03-02-2021 6:08pm

Mr_A wrote: »

Update from Met Éireann

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1357004955501146117

I'd like to think a certain guy in Met Éireann knew we can't see ECMWF ensembles normally and gave a nice tidbit for us

Gonzo · 03-02-2021 6:10pm

Would like to see a very similar ECM to earlier. It's actually much better than the GFS overall and brings possibly nationwide frontal snow potential second half of next week and into the weekend. GFS cuts off the cold from Wednesday with a mild Atlantic rolling back in with ease.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST