Share Picks 2020

retalivity · 04-03-2020 10:16pm

Sell sell sell!

All pharma stocks seemed to bounce today (higher than the rest)

Lex Luthor · 04-03-2020 10:35pm

retalivity wrote: »

Sell sell sell!

All pharma stocks seemed to bounce today (higher than the rest)

Especially Genmark Diagnostics

weemcd · 04-03-2020 10:36pm

According to BBC news Flybe airline are on the brink of collapse.

XMG · 04-03-2020 10:48pm

roosterman71 wrote: »

Can someone give me a short explanation of what ye mean by "shorts"?

Unless you 100% know what you’re doing, don’t

XMG · 04-03-2020 10:52pm

weemcd wrote: »

According to BBC news Flybe airline are on the brink of collapse.

I’d say they’re one of many travel related companies in trouble. 1st quarter earnings (not just for them) are gonna be fun for short biased traders

retalivity · 04-03-2020 10:54pm

weemcd wrote: »

According to BBC news Flybe airline are on the brink of collapse.

Werent they bailed out a few wks ago? Ryanair price to jump soon so..

weemcd · 04-03-2020 10:56pm

XMG wrote: »

I’d say they’re one of many travel related companies in trouble. 1st quarter earnings (not just for them) are gonna be fun for short biased traders

I was having a peak to see if there was any movement but probably too late at this time for European stocks. Tomorrow will be interesting. I see Lufthansa are grounding flights today.

Dicey waters with knock on effects everywhere. I live in Belfast an 80% of the flights from City airport, my preferred airport, are Flybe.

weemcd · 04-03-2020 10:58pm

retalivity wrote: »

Werent they bailed out a few wks ago? Ryanair price to jump soon so..

My first thoughts exactly.

bfa1509 · 04-03-2020 11:55pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

Shorters believe a price will fall.
Shorts borrow shares through a broker from other shareholders and then sell them.
This selling creates downward pressure on the price and if accompanied by the negative sentiment that
they believe exists the price will drop. If the price falls to where they think it should be then they buy back the shares,
returning them to the broker and pocket the difference minus the expenses for borrowing them.
Sell at 10, buy back at 5, return the shares and pocket the 5 difference.

I think it should be worth mentioning (but correct me if I'm wrong):
-Going long you risk losing some or all of your investment
-Taking a short position there is no limit to how much you could lose

Really should not be done unless you very much know what you are doing (even then, I'm not sure!)

all about the mane · 05-03-2020 12:00am

bfa1509 wrote: »

I think it should be worth mentioning (but correct me if I'm wrong):
-Going long you risk losing some or all of your investment
-Taking a short position there is no limit to how much you could lose

Really should not be done unless you very much know what you are doing (even then, I'm not sure!)

I think you are thinking of underwriting options. It is possible to take a long or short position if cfds and spread betting without the kind of exposure you are talking about

all about the mane · 05-03-2020 12:01am

Lex Luthor wrote: »

I wouldn’t get carried away, this won’t last long

We’ll see. Most positions stop loss are at break even now anyway so I can enjoy the ride

Lex Luthor · 05-03-2020 7:58am

the market being green at the moment could be a false breakout to trick people into buying in before it dumps hard on them

all about the mane · 05-03-2020 8:05am

Lex Luthor wrote: »

the market being green at the moment could be a false breakout to trick people into buying in before it dumps hard on them

Could well be. Important to set up trades with a decent r/r to account for losses. Always have to have an edge

all about the mane · 05-03-2020 9:21am

Just opened a position in ryanair. Risky but lets see what happens.

championc · 05-03-2020 12:04pm

all about the mane wrote: »

Just opened a position in ryanair. Risky but lets see what happens.

I think it'll crash as Easter travel gets absolutely hammered. Many people will have bought seats already for March and may choose not to travel, but the seats are paid for, but many people would be booking now for Easter.

I personally think that Italy are lying about their numbers. How can some many people all over Europe have been affected by travelling to northern Italy, with only 3000 infected ? Makes no sense - the place must be riddled. I can only think that they are trying to protect their tourism

Lex Luthor · 05-03-2020 12:09pm

championc wrote: »

I think it'll crash as Easter travel gets absolutely hammered. Many people will have bought seats already for March and may choose not to travel, but the seats are paid for, but many people would be booking now for Easter.

I personally think that Italy are lying about their numbers. How can some many people all over Europe have been affected by travelling to northern Italy, with only 3000 infected ? Makes no sense - the place must be riddled. I can only think that they are trying to protect their tourism

Every school in the country and 3rd level are closed for at least 2 weeks

What does that tell you

05-03-2020 12:27pm

championc wrote: »

I think it'll crash as Easter travel gets absolutely hammered. Many people will have bought seats already for March and may choose not to travel, but the seats are paid for, but many people would be booking now for Easter.

I personally think that Italy are lying about their numbers. How can some many people all over Europe have been affected by travelling to northern Italy, with only 3000 infected ? Makes no sense - the place must be riddled. I can only think that they are trying to protect their tourism

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-03-03/ryanair-ceo-o-leary-on-coronavirus-impact-boeing-s-737-max-jet-video

Easter bookings looking OK so far but will naturally probably be softer. It seems like it is already priced in.

Wombatman · 05-03-2020 2:18pm

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-03-03/ryanair-ceo-o-leary-on-coronavirus-impact-boeing-s-737-max-jet-video

Easter bookings looking OK so far but will naturally probably be softer. It seems like it is already priced in.

Not sure the level of hysteria and panic we are going to see over the next week is priced in anywhere. Sentiment drives the markets.

all about the mane · 05-03-2020 4:21pm

Wombatman wrote: »

Not sure the level of hysteria and panic we are going to see over the next week is priced in anywhere. Sentiment drives the markets.

Why do you think there will be an increase this particular week?

greenfield21 · 05-03-2020 8:29pm

Stating the obvious but short term is going to be very messy. Can't see any light on the horizon.

all about the mane · 05-03-2020 8:38pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

Stating the obvious but short term is going to be very messy. Can't see any light on the horizon.

China seem to be coming out the other end.

antimatterx · 05-03-2020 10:00pm

Waiting for Airlines to really sink before I invest in Delta

The Phantom Jipper · 05-03-2020 10:05pm

antimatterx wrote: »

Waiting for Airlines to really sink before I invest in Delta

Out of curiosity, what kind of price would you be looking at before you'd make a move?

antimatterx · 05-03-2020 11:18pm

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what kind of price would you be looking at before you'd make a move?

I see another 15 - 20% dropping from travel companies stocks. I work as a software engineer for a company that provides car rental software and we're seeing a real drop in bookings as a result of this Corona virus. There's real fear in the company!!

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-03-2020 9:51am

US 10 YR is 0.79% this morning, make of that what you will.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-03-2020 10:29am

*0.77%

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-03-2020 10:48am

.70 WTF! Big day ahead.

onrail · 06-03-2020 11:04am

Caiden Immense Porterhouse wrote: »

.70 WTF! Big day ahead.

Could we get an explainer for the significance?

cefh17 · 06-03-2020 11:19am

onrail wrote: »

Could we get an explainer for the significance?

Those 10 year bonds are an indication of market sentiment, the fact that the rates offered are as low as they are and further dropping shows that they're offering lower returns for a long term guarantee (aka, risky short term). When the rates long term (10yr) are shorter than the (3mo/1yr) rates then it is one sign of a likely recession. My basic understanding of it anyhow...

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-03-2020 11:23am

An explainer: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100814/why-10-year-us-treasury-rates-matter.asp

Shedite27 · 06-03-2020 11:29am

onrail wrote: »

Could we get an explainer for the significance?

My understanding is:
- yields going lower means more investors are trying to buy bonds (willing to take 0.7% return over 10 years than play the market).
- leaves less money for shares so share prices aren't going to recover today as they have after drops over the past few weeks

Wombatman · 06-03-2020 11:54am

all about the mane wrote: »

Just opened a position in ryanair. Risky but lets see what happens.

Down almost 10% in the last couple of days. Could be more to go. Should be big value there when the time is right. When that is is the big question.

Jim2007 · 06-03-2020 12:16pm

cefh17 wrote: »

Those 10 year bonds are an indication of market sentiment, the fact that the rates offered are as low as they are and further dropping shows that they're offering lower returns for a long term guarantee (aka, risky short term). When the rates long term (10yr) are shorter than the (3mo/1yr) rates then it is one sign of a likely recession. My basic understanding of it anyhow...

Then again it could just be a question of supply and demand... there is a massive cash surplus looking for a return, so most of the old analysis is unless and was questionable even back then...

Recessions typically follow a seven or eight year cycle and rates are just as likely to reflect people’s expectations as anything else.

timetogo1 · 06-03-2020 12:48pm

I'm turning into a currency speculator these days too.
Was wondering why there was a big drop this morning and the markets aren't open. US Dollar vs the Euro is taking a hammering today. So my US stock is devaluing away.
1Euro was $1.11 yesterday. Today it's $1.13. So nearly a 2% drop.

themossinator · 06-03-2020 3:13pm

massive flight to safety in bonds recently

Supercell · 06-03-2020 5:56pm

Bought some LADR for its dividend today.
I reckon BA was at serious bargain levels earlier today, didn't have any cash left to deploy myself though. I reckon once the Max does fly BA is going to be north of $400 again rapidly. So while I'm down a bit on it I'm happy enough to bide my time.
I bet Buffet is licking his chops at the moment.

retalivity · 06-03-2020 6:35pm

Ftse 100 closed at lowest level since 2016 the weekend may provide some respite...but probably more of the same next week

pearcider · 06-03-2020 8:29pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

My understanding is:
- yields going lower means more investors are trying to buy bonds (willing to take 0.7% return over 10 years than play the market).
- leaves less money for shares so share prices aren't going to recover today as they have after drops over the past few weeks

Oil and bonds are predicting the same thing. Huge global recession. Considering the central banks are going to print into oblivion as deflation will destroy them and their huge debts I’d say you need you need a portfolio to defend against inflation.

So invest in businesses that can raise their prices easily due to inelastic demand and that generate cash. Oil and energy in general is in the gutter at multi decade lows so that will be my play when the time comes.

Lex Luthor · 06-03-2020 9:11pm

If everyone is self isolated Netflix is gonna up their subs big time

greenfield21 · 06-03-2020 9:15pm

Cheap fuel, low rates, more stimulus, companies with no stock you would think if it blows over we are ready for lift of that's if companies can get through it soon.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-03-2020 9:54pm

Shorts taking profit heading into the weekend.

Shedite27 · 06-03-2020 10:06pm

Some rally in the last 45mns, 2nd week in a row. Don’t understand it myself, any logic?

Dow finishes up on the week

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-03-2020 10:07pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

Some rally in the last 45mns, 2nd week in a row. Don’t understand it myself, any logic?

Dow finishes up on the week

Shorts closing positions on the off chance there is good news over the weekend.

Pretty bearish day overall when you look at yields etc.

coolshannagh28 · 06-03-2020 10:24pm

Caiden Immense Porterhouse wrote: »

Shorts taking profit heading into the weekend.

Yes , and on S+P 3000 is a big level psychologically , it has hovered around it for a while now, if it breaks below the next level is around 2400 , then anything is possible.

all about the mane · 06-03-2020 10:51pm

About half of portfolio closed out at break even today. Didn't have time to add on last dip. Will look again next week. Still holding 11 stocks for now.

Bob Harris · 07-03-2020 10:06am

8 people have died in Spain from the virus..

Ages of 7 of the 8 have been 87, 91, 76, 99, 87, 79 and 76.
I don't mean to dismiss their deaths by any means but it's likely had they picked up any 'normal' winter virus
they would not have survived.

In the UK it's been two, a woman in her 70's and a man in his 80's. The common denominator as in Spain
has been that they all had underlying medical conditions.

While the virus works it's way around the world and will soon contaminate millions if it hasn't already it is
not going to wipe out half of the world's population and it looks like it is doing a lot more damage to economies
than to people's health.

Just my two cents.

hottipper · 07-03-2020 12:04pm

Anheuser-Busch is getting hammered, it owns corona beer
number 1 imported beer to the US
https://www.statista.com/statistics/188728/top-imported-beer-brands-in-the-united-states/

adding it to my watch list :cool:

all about the mane · 07-03-2020 12:07pm

hottipper wrote: »

Anheuser-Busch is getting hammered, it owns corona beer
number 1 imported beer to the US
https://www.statista.com/statistics/188728/top-imported-beer-brands-in-the-united-states/

adding it to my watch list :cool:

I have already added them to my portfolio folio

all about the mane · 07-03-2020 12:08pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

8 people have died in Spain from the virus..

Ages of 7 of the 8 have been 87, 91, 76, 99, 87, 79 and 76.
I don't mean to dismiss their deaths by any means but it's likely had they picked up any 'normal' winter virus
they would not have survived.

In the UK it's been two, a woman in her 70's and a man in his 80's. The common denominator as in Spain
has been that they all had underlying medical conditions.

While the virus works it's way around the world and will soon contaminate millions if it hasn't already it is
not going to wipe out half of the world's population and it looks like it is doing a lot more damage to economies
than to people's health.

Just my two cents.

Completely agree. It’s the panic that will do the damage. The authorities the world over are already copping on to this.

pearcider · 07-03-2020 12:40pm

all about the mane wrote: »

Completely agree. It’s the panic that will do the damage. The authorities the world over are already copping on to this.

We were due a recession anyway. Longest economic expansion in history. Half of the stock indices are zombie companies only alive due to the absurdly low cost of debt. If interest rates go up these companies go bankrupt. The junk bond market is already blowing up. It’s a bigger fraud than Enron. But. Don’t take my word for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C-2SNPSaUw

Share Picks 2020

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