Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

nacho libre · 04-12-2017 1:02am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Yeah the first outbreak in November was sourced from Scandinavia, we had snow from the north in Donegal around the 25th but it quickly changed to a NE'erly and stayed that way all week. The airmass in mid December was sourced from a northerly though, once the airmass was in place we had easterly winds but they were very light and more a case of an already cold airmass passing over deep snowfields

Yes. You only have to re-read M.T Craniums post from that time to see the airmass that gave us snow on the 16th was northerly based out of the Canadian Arctic before it changed to a north easterly, which left us with a week of very cold and dry weather to enjoy the snow.
Normally with our wintry air masses the cold is diluted by the Atlantic influence over a day or two, that airmass on the 16th was exceptionally cold, and because it was so unstable, played in our favour also, which is why i had more snow than you:P.

Regarding the latest GFS, this model tends to exaggerate cold and storms, it's also not as accurate as other models in terms of verification, so i won't be taking its latest run too seriously.

What usually happens on the day is a blend between the more sober ECM and the ukmo. With that in mind i expect a two day toppler then back to milder weather for a few days. The northern arm of a split jet just seems too strong to allow proper blocking to occur.

Donegal Storm · 04-12-2017 1:34am

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes. You only have to re-read M.T Craniums post from that time to see the airmass that gave us snow on the 16th was northerly based out of the Canadian Arctic before it changed to a north easterly which left us with a week of very cold and dry weather to enjoy the snow.
Normally with our wintry airmasses the cold is diluted by the Atlantic influence over a day or two, that airmass on the 16th was exceptionally cold, and because it was so unstable, played in our favour also, which is why i had more snow than you:P.

Regarding the latest GFS this model tends to exaggerate cold and storms, it's also not as accurate as other models in terms of verification, so i won't be taking it's latest run too seriously.

What usually happens on the day is a blend between the more sober ECM and the ukmo. With that in mind i expect a two day toppler then back to milder weather for a few days. The northern arm of a split jet just seems too strong to allow proper blocking to occur.

A good 30cm in 24 hours :cool:

Snow potential aside though it should still be an interesting few days in the coming week, some nice kinks in the isobars as the front passes through on Wednesday so could be a squall line and a few sparks, plenty of wind and squally/maybe thundery showers as well.

Thundery hail squalls are one thing I've really missed since moving from Donegal, December 2011 is the last really active month I can recall

This event being a particular favourite

wakka12 · 04-12-2017 1:48am

God Id love to see some snow. Was just a wee school boy last time I got to see any

MJohnston · 04-12-2017 2:02am

Was the thundersnow of Nov/Dec 2010 something common enough with heavy snowfalls here? It was the first time I remember that happening, and it was glorious (because I hadn't seen either snow or a decent thunderstorm in quite a long time!)

Rodar08 · 04-12-2017 2:05am

I just googled what a toppler is. I don’t know how much more of this build up/close call/snowticipation followed by deep, deep disnowppointment I can take. I’m a wreck and it’s not even proper winter yet. 2010 has wrecked me. I live every winter now like this. On the edge of my nerves!! It’s a tough life living in hope with not even a flurry to tide you over or keep you going. I live in Donegal ffs. But I must live in the worst part. The no go snow area. Sigh .. Thursday. I’ll wait to see what happens on Thursday and then I vow never to get sucked in by the hype and hysteria ever again and just live my life.

wakka12 · 04-12-2017 2:08am

Rodar08 wrote: »

I just googled what a toppler is. I don’t know how much more of this build up/close call/snowticipation followed by deep, deep disnowppointment I can take. I’m a wreck and it’s not even proper winter yet. 2010 has wrecked me. I live every winter now like this. On the edge of my nerves!! It’s a tough life living in hope with not even a flurry to tide you over or keep you going. I live in Donegal ffs. But I must live in the worst part. The no go snow area. Sigh .. Thursday. I’ll wait to see what happens on Thursday and then I vow never to get sucked in by the hype and hysteria ever again and just live my life.

Haha I was like that for 2 or 3 years after 2010..can only take so many years though. Really killed my interest in weather !

pauldry · 04-12-2017 3:10am

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Yeah pub run is on steroids

Can we just put this photo up daily

I spent 5 mins looking at it

nacho libre · 04-12-2017 4:45am

MJohnston wrote: »

Was the thundersnow of Nov/Dec 2010 something common enough with heavy snowfalls here? It was the first time I remember that happening, and it was glorious (because I hadn't seen either snow or a decent thunderstorm in quite a long time!)

No. It is not that common here. It was courtesy of a very cold airmass aloft travelling over and interacting with much warmer moist air below- the sea.
Falling snow dampens the sound of thunder but lightning appears brighter than normal because it reflects off the falling snowflakes. It was a sight to behold for sure.

MJohnston · 04-12-2017 9:09am

nacho libre wrote: »

No. It is not that common here. It was courtesy of a very cold airmass aloft travelling over and interacting with much warmer moist air below- the sea.
Falling snow dampens the sound of thunder but lightning appears brighter than normal because it reflects off the falling snowflakes. It was a sight to behold for sure.

Another way in which 2010 will be hard to beat for a long time to come then!

odyboody · 04-12-2017 9:48am

Somethings in the air alright.
Gerry Murphy mentioned snow in his forcast:eek:

kod87 · 04-12-2017 9:52am

odyboody wrote: »

Somethings in the air alright.
Gerry Murphy mentioned snow in his forcast:eek:

Is that not a sign of impending apocalypse? :eek:

Rebelbrowser · 04-12-2017 10:17am

kod87 wrote: »

Is that not a sign of impending apocalypse? :eek:

He also added "...and I for one welcome our new insect overlords" for some reason?

Macy0161 · 04-12-2017 10:21am

kod87 wrote: »

Is that not a sign of impending apocalypse? :eek:

It's not serious until they bring out The Eagle!

Wanderer78 · 04-12-2017 10:24am

Is it possible to have 'incessant snow'?

sjb25 · 04-12-2017 10:34am

odyboody wrote: »

Somethings in the air alright.
Gerry Murphy mentioned snow in his forcast:eek:

..

Nettle Soup · 04-12-2017 10:49am

Jesus I fceking love snow coming up to Christmas.
Any chance in Galway this week?

George Sunsnow · 04-12-2017 10:51am

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Jesus I fceking love snow coming up to Christmas.
Any chance in Galway this week?

High chance Thursday to Saturday

cherryghost · 04-12-2017 11:01am

This mornings GFS has a deeper low and passing near and a higher pressure high in Greenland. Interesting times ahead.

EDIT: Looks like the cold weather wants to hang around a bit longer!

pilly · 04-12-2017 11:37am

cherryghost wrote:

EDIT: Looks like the cold weather wants to hang around a bit longer!

How much longer?

George Sunsnow · 04-12-2017 11:40am

pilly wrote: »

How much longer?

I wouldn’t say anything based on the morning gfs
Best are the overnight runs
The answer is unknown tbh

Larbre34 · 04-12-2017 12:30pm

I'm still seeing very little snow on the cards Thursday/Friday for all but the uplands in the North and Northwest, mixed precip or dry altogether and a bitter breeze across the bulk of Leinster and Munster.

The best chance for widespread snow is for a few hours Saturday when the fronts try to break through. It will be icey and dicey pretty much anywhere though from Thursday to Sunday.

munsterlegend · 04-12-2017 12:38pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm still seeing very little snow on the cards Thursday/Friday for all but the uplands in the North and Northwest, mixed precip or dry altogether and a bitter breeze across the bulk of Leinster and Munster.

The best chance for widespread snow is for a few hours Saturday when the fronts try to break through. It will be icey and dicey pretty much anywhere though from Thursday to Sunday.

Looking at the charts it does seem to be a northern/ northwest affair. We usually get showers in west Munster but could be the dreaded sleet. Still time for snow upgrades I suppose.

Larbre34 · 04-12-2017 12:43pm

Yeah agreed, its on a knife edge as it tends to be with airmasses over Ireland, but it wouldnt take much modification either way for it to be a decent pasting or a common or garden cold damp few days

George Sunsnow · 04-12-2017 12:51pm

Most affected in this order should be Ulster Connaught west Munster and north Leinster
That’s from the showers
Disturbances on the end of the front may at least bring snow to high ground in eastern areas

The showers may well be enough to get through and give a covering in Dublin
If it’s happened before it can happen again
I’ve seen lepordstown races called off due to northwesterly snow and I’ve even seen them get down to Arklow but don’t expect the southeast to see much if any this time

Exciting in the run up and seeing what happens nonetheless for weather buffs

Gaoth Laidir · 04-12-2017 12:52pm

Whatever the snowline, a northwesterly rarely gives us a decent quality of snow at low levels. Oul cheap Atlantic muck, not the like that from an easterly. With ground temperatures bound to be high from the couple of mild days to come now any snow will have a hard time remaining during daylight hours.

George Sunsnow · 04-12-2017 1:02pm

Probably and I’d agree until I see -10 (and every other cold stat that would naturally come along with that) uppers from that direction
But there will be snow in all those areas

patneve2 · 04-12-2017 1:08pm

Looks like a short but reasonably potent North/North Westerly. Pity the progged thicknesses aren't great. Reckon people on higher ground in the North and West (like mountainy man) should see around 10cm of snow. Should be a decent covering at lower levels also. For Dublin best case scenario is for a dusting of snow obviously due to the unfavourable wind direction - am just expecting dry cold tbh. Post cold snap is very uncertain but still decent potential.

mickger844posts · 04-12-2017 1:17pm

I wouldn't be too hopeful of any snow in Waterford but the last few occasions we have had snow here it was from a NW flow. NW is a lot better than a Northerly for our chances anyway. Uppers temps are the lowest we will have seen here in a few Winters so all is to play for. An interesting week ahead with a big change in Temps from Wednesday to Thursday

Gonzo · 04-12-2017 1:35pm

not expecting much if any snow around these parts, maybe a dusting if we're lucky. The only way we will see measurable snow is a polar low/organised disturbance rather than showers, but for that the temperatures and dp's would have to be low enough to support falling and lying snow.

I am still holding out for an easterly this winter as that is the real deal with proper cold and snow trains, then again not all easterly's are unsettled affairs either.

Rodar08 · 04-12-2017 1:50pm

Gonzo wrote: »

not expecting much if any snow around these parts, maybe a dusting if we're lucky.

What parts? Ireland as a whole? Your specific location? As a moderator I wouldn’t have thought you of all people would do that. It always makes it a pointless post completely except for the people who know where you live. The rest of us just have to waste time reading about conditions/forecasts for an unknown place. See what I mean here?

Rebelbrowser · 04-12-2017 2:08pm

Rodar08 wrote: »

What parts? Ireland as a whole? Your specific location? As a moderator I wouldn’t have thought you of all people would do that. It always makes it a pointless post completely except for the people who know where you live. The rest of us just have to waste time reading about conditions/forecasts for an unknown place. See what I mean here?

Em... his handle clearly states he lives in Dunshaughlin, Co. Meath.... That specific enough?!?:)

Gonzo · 04-12-2017 2:18pm

Rodar08 wrote: »

What parts? Ireland as a whole? Your specific location? As a moderator I wouldn’t have thought you of all people would do that. It always makes it a pointless post completely except for the people who know where you live. The rest of us just have to waste time reading about conditions/forecasts for an unknown place. See what I mean here?

when I said around these parts I was referring to near where I live, which is written under my name. It won't become clear where will see snow until Wednesday. Generally Atlantic/Northerly's produce very little for much of the east and south of the country unless something more organised happens.

Going on past experience Atlantic or northerly cold spells rarely cause severe widespread disruption due to snow as it usually results in showers that weaken as they travel and die out on their journey. Frost and black ice can be a problem as always in set ups such as this.

But, there has been rare occasions where such cold spells do deliver widespread snow cover across the country, but so far it's looking nothing like that.

Predicting snowfall can be a nightmare, even more so during an easterly with the Isle Of Man and Wales shadows changing as the wind direction changes.

gabeeg · 04-12-2017 2:19pm

What parts of Dunshaughlin will see snow?

Villain · 04-12-2017 2:20pm

Northwesterly cold is cold that doesn't deliver for us in the Sunny Southeast anyway but looks interesting for some northern areas.

Saturday will be interesting to follow, GFS and ECM are not in agreement.

Anyway at least some colder weather ahead for a couple of days better than the mild muck of Wednesday but I wouldn't be getting excited if you live in the East.

Rodar08 · 04-12-2017 2:21pm

It says moderator under your name. No location.

JCX BXC · 04-12-2017 2:22pm

Rodar08 wrote: »

It says moderator under your name. No location.

You're using the mobile site, many issues with that, your location doesn't show, which is why most users try to put in their location when making weather reports.

kod87 · 04-12-2017 2:23pm

Gonzo wrote: »

when I said around these parts I was referring to near where I live, which is written under my name. It won't become clear where will see snow until Wednesday. Generally Atlantic/Northerly's produce very little for much of the east and south of the country unless something more organised happens.

Going on past experience Atlantic or northerly cold spells rarely cause severe widespread disruption due to snow as it usually results in showers that weaken as they travel and die out on their journey. Frost and black ice can be a problem as always in set ups such as this.

But, there has been rare occasions where such cold spells do deliver widespread snow cover across the country, but so far it's looking nothing like that.

Predicting snowfall can be a nightmare, even more so during an easterly with the Isle Of Man and Wales shadows changing as the wind direction changes.

To be fair, the sacred easterlies don't usually cause widespread disruption either but since a big chunk of the population live near the east coast it seems like it does

A typical easterly leaves the majority of the country bone dry

Gonzo · 04-12-2017 2:29pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

You're using the mobile site, many issues with that, your location doesn't show, which is why most users try to put in their location when making weather reports.

didn't realize location doesn't show up on mobile devices, I'm old school and use a desktop pc/monitor 98% of the time!.

JCX BXC · 04-12-2017 2:31pm

Gonzo wrote: »

didn't realize location doesn't show up on mobile devices, I'm old school and use a desktop pc/monitor 98% of the time!.

It doesn't, probably one of the most annoying things about the mobile site!

Gonzo · 04-12-2017 2:37pm

kod87 wrote: »

To be fair, the sacred easterlies don't usually cause widespread disruption either but since a big chunk of the population live near the east coast it seems like it does

A typical easterly leaves the majority of the country bone dry

it depends on how decent the easterly becomes. We have had dry easterlies before where the Irish sea fails to deliver. I have seen really good easterlies deliver proper snow right into the heart of Ireland, even east Galway as well as much of the north and south of the country.

The Atlantic/northerlies can bring snow past the midlands, but even in the west, it's often only an inch or 2 at most and of the very wet variety with mainly high ground and Donegal/Northern Ireland receiving the lions share of lying snow. I think Christmas Day 2004 was the last successful attempt for most of the country?

kod87 · 04-12-2017 2:42pm

Gonzo wrote: »

it depends on how decent the easterly becomes. We have had dry easterlies before where the Irish sea fails to deliver. I have seen really good easterlies deliver proper snow right into the heart of Ireland, even east Galway as well as much of the north and south of the country.

The Atlantic/northerlies can bring snow past the midlands, but even in the west, it's often only an inch or 2 at most and of the very wet variety with mainly high ground and Donegal/Northern Ireland receiving the lions share of lying snow. I think Christmas Day 2004 was the last successful attempt for most of the country?

Well I have lived in this location for 30 years and not once has a snowflake fallen from an easterly sourced cold ( guess i'm unlucky ) but on average we get 2/3 mornings a year of snow cover from a north westerly. It's not much but in the south midlands it's our only real prospect of snow cover unless we get an exceptional easterly ( once in a hundred year type event )

Rebelbrowser · 04-12-2017 2:43pm

Gonzo wrote: »

it depends on how decent the easterly becomes. We have had dry easterlies before where the Irish sea fails to deliver. I have seen really good easterlies deliver proper snow right into the heart of Ireland, even east Galway as well as much of the north and south of the country.

The Atlantic/northerlies can bring snow past the midlands, but even in the west, it's often only an inch or 2 at most and of the very wet variety with mainly high ground and Donegal/Northern Ireland receiving the lions share of lying snow. I think Christmas Day 2004 was the last successful attempt for most of the country?

Certainly here in Cork there have probably been 10 occasions since 2004 when a NW delivered snow of any variety (lets say that lasted an hour, usually at 7am) - but with possible exception of a half day / overnight in and around Jan 2015, I'm not sure any successfully lay for more than 4 hours. Only proper snowfall in that period was Jan 2010 (from the south as part of the Dec 2009/Jan 2010 cold) and 17 December 2010 (at the start of that northerly).

compsys · 04-12-2017 2:48pm

Gonzo wrote: »

didn't realize location doesn't show up on mobile devices, I'm old school and use a desktop pc/monitor 98% of the time!.

I’d say over 60% of traffic on boards comes from mobile now so when talking about your location you should never presume people are on desktop and know where you are.

George Sunsnow · 04-12-2017 2:57pm

kod87 wrote: »

Well I have lived in this location for 30 years and not once has a snowflake fallen from an easterly sourced cold ( guess i'm unlucky ) but on average we get 2/3 mornings a year of snow cover from a north westerly. It's not much but in the south midlands it's our only real prospect of snow cover unless we get an exceptional easterly ( once in a hundred year type event )

Aye
My milk in December 2010 was being brought from Arklow to the Glanbia ballyragget plant in Kilkenny where our Lorry driver said there was no snow
The staff down there couldn’t believe what he was telling them about conditions up our way
Here’s a pic attached of us clearing (again) the lane down into the yard so the lorry could get in
We were successfull as per the 2nd pic
The piles of snow we created lasted until the end of January!

That was on Dec 22nd,it snowed heavy again on the 23rd and 24th

CrowdedHouse · 04-12-2017 4:20pm

I'm glad kod87 and George Sunsnow mentioned it in passing because I was beginning to wonder was my old noggin going off a bit. Everyone talks about 2010 but in my neck of the woods - near Roscrea Tipp it was a fairly unremarkable event snow-wise. Sure there was snow but checking through my old photos, I can see the grass on my lawn through the snow (the fact that I only took a handful says a lot). I travelled regularly to Galway without difficulty.

The COLD though folks I'll never forget..

ronnie3585 · 04-12-2017 4:54pm

George Sunsnow · 04-12-2017 5:01pm

Lots of rain in that chart should it materialize Ronnie I should imagine

hatrickpatrick · 04-12-2017 5:05pm

12z GFS just rolling out, looks somewhat less promising (less blocked, more rainy, still fairly snowy) but let's see what the ECM has to say...

Rebelbrowser · 04-12-2017 5:21pm

We've seen worse than the below chart 4 days away (albeit I know the GFS precipitation chart is awful)..

90-574UK.GIF?04-12

Gonzo · 04-12-2017 5:30pm

just seen RTE's latest forecast on RTE News Now and it's not particularly great. Very mild on Wednesday, possibly reaching 14C in places. Thursday they have nationwide rain, hail and sleet showers, they mention possible dustings and temps of 3-5C.

Friday they show showers of sleet and snow along the west and mostly sunny elsewhere but colder and temps around 3C.

Saturday and Sunday they are showing a dry and mostly sunny setup nationwide with temps starting to recover.

Snow and Ice Warning : Thursday/Friday 7th/8th December

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