UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

tinpib · 05-06-2021 8:27pm

Didn't know this was an early card, first fight on at 9pm. If you don't have time to study the fights, then best of piling into my big priced bets, prices a mix of Hills and 365:

My WMMA pciks have been awful recently, Ive been picking the wrong fighter never mind that they win/don't win on pts.

For today I'm going with:

Tabatha Ricci on pts 'cos I love her and I want everyone to know it. 7/1

Naturally Ariane Lipski on pts 'cos I love her too, 4.5

(they will prob both lose TBF)

The years are catching up with Trinaldo but he is still dangerous and at 3.0 he is worth a bet.

Really think Tanner Boser is pretty terrible, Latifi is 2.62 and has bags of experience but a poor recent record.

Alan Patrick has tons of experience, Mason Jones was unbeaten and then lost his first UFC fight, often the step up to UFC is just too much so Patrick at 13/5 looks a nice price.

Think Walt Harris might be past it and has been ko'ed a bit, so Tybura by KO at 2.75

For non-big prices in main event I went for Rozenstruik at 1.8, he needs to win this or he could become a forgotten man.

I went for Dusko Todorovic at 1.72 in his fight against former US President Barack Obama(Gregory Rodrigues), who looks in great shape

mailburner · 05-06-2021 9:06pm

I like baeza at 5/6 but torn between the win or ko at 2/1

Ponzi to me looked very hesitant last time out, barely threw a punch so maybe the injuries/layout counted for plenty
I've a feeling he's not the same fighter so that's my reasoning

Baeza on the other hand is on a tear but what worries me a little was when he got over aggressive with matt brown it nearly cost him in the first round

mailburner · 05-06-2021 10:26pm

gonna take tybura ko also, harris has been so bad in his last two gassing in both so early and tybura is pretty durable

like sakai also at 11/10

gane rosen was one of the worst hw fights in ufc history, rozen barely tried when he couldn't get the ko
sakai has better hands and will have no problem going five and did very well against the reem

mailburner · 05-06-2021 11:01pm

main bet at 9/5 tybura and baeza backing them as much as I'm backing
against ponzi and harris after dismal performances
I think the same applies to rozen who was terrible last time out

tybura ko baeza ko 10.38/1 pp

tybura ko baeza ko sakai ko 44/1
tybura ko baeza ko sakai pts 50/1

mailburner · 06-06-2021 1:37am

mailburner wrote: »

I like baeza at 5/6 but torn between the win or ko at 2/1

Ponzi to me looked very hesitant last time out, barely threw a punch so maybe the injuries/layout counted for plenty
I've a feeling he's not the same fighter so that's my reasoning

Baeza on the other hand is on a tear but what worries me a little was when he got over aggressive with matt brown it nearly cost him in the first round

I can't catch a break at all lately, looked so good in round one

Baeza was around 1/10 after round one and completely dominating

plenty of fight left in ponzi though

d00mk1n · 12-06-2021 4:05pm

These are the Paddy Power tips

5.15am: Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori – ADESANYA to win by KO/TKO
4.45am: Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno – MORENO to win on points
4.15am: Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz – EDWARDS to win in Round Four & Round Five

Avoid them

mailburner · 12-06-2021 6:03pm

maia at 2s v belal

seems big?

izzy should really beat vettori handy enough?

tinpib · 12-06-2021 7:19pm

Tonight's big priced picks which all have been given AAA rating by Standard and Poor's:

Jake Collier at 6/4, neither record outstanding
Chase Hooper at evens
Vendramini 2.1
Alexis Davis on pts 4.33
Lauren Murphy on pts 3.0(think this could be a very good fight)
Darren Stewart 2.25, think he is a bit under rated and Anders is by no means elite
Brad Riddell on pts 3.6
A default "BearJew" Craig by sub bet at 5/1
Belal Muhammad on pts 2.2
Leon Edwards on pts 2.25 (assumed it was 3 rounds, but going by the PP bet above it is 5?)
Vettori at 3.25, I think that price is way too big. Think Adesanya is over rated by many. Joe Rogan's shocking biased commentary in his last fight is evidence of it.

mailburner · 12-06-2021 10:24pm

Taking a punt on these four singles/doubles/trebles/accum

maia sub 9/2
moreno pts 4/1
vettori pts 9/2
craig sub 9/2

I'd be happy with 2 but I'm due a break/miracle so please
let it be tonight

If i got close to evens on leon izzy I'd consider a big bet but everytime
I've gone big lately I've lost

edit, forgot pp went for moreno pts...that's not good

12-06-2021 10:32pm

Hooper/Figueiredo/Adesanya @4/1

12-06-2021 10:36pm

tinpib wrote: »

Leon Edwards on pts 2.25 (assumed it was 3 rounds, but going by the PP bet above it is 5?)

Yeah, it's 5 rounds.

eagle eye · 12-06-2021 11:49pm

Next fight I like Chase Hooper in round 1 likely by sub.
I like Calderwood by decision.
Hill round 1 ko.
I like Edwards by decision and Moreno by decision too.
I'm very tempted to take Vettori by decision but I have to think more on it.

13-06-2021 12:17am

**** it, can't ignore Nate at 9/2. He'll be there all night.

SlowBlowin · 13-06-2021 1:00am

Has anyone ever placed a bet after the fight has ended and got paid out ? I just did it unintentionally(ish) and was blown away when it paid out... Is this normal, will they take the winnings back in the morning ?

Edit: They voided the settled bet and took back the money.

mailburner · 13-06-2021 5:03pm

I didn't get paid out on the craig sub ffs

sherdog had it as a sub but ufc a tko when I looked this morning

the craig tko must have been pretty big odds
I know the moreno sub was 12s

Mellor · 15-06-2021 1:11am

mailburner wrote: »

I didn't get paid out on the craig sub ffs

sherdog had it as a sub but ufc a tko when I looked this morning

the craig tko must have been pretty big odds
I know the moreno sub was 12s

What was it announced as? The AC might update the result.

Obvious he didn't actually submit. But if the ref stopped it due to the broken arm, then it's still officially a submission.

Of course the ref was terrible, and if he stopped it due to strikes he needs to go to specsavers

eagle eye · 15-06-2021 10:39am

How would the ref stopping it due to injury mean it's a sub?

kneejerk · 15-06-2021 11:58am

Mellor wrote: »

What was it announced as? The AC might update the result.

Obvious he didn't actually submit. But if the ref stopped it due to the broken arm, then it's still officially a submission.

Of course the ref was terrible, and if he stopped it due to strikes he needs to go to specsavers

Yeah the correct call is technical submission by armbar. Not sure how that works with the betting companies.

tinpib · 15-06-2021 12:31pm

Bruce Buffer announced TKO at the time and on the UFC site it also has TKO. Saw tech sub on wiki, which obv is just a lay person editing it.

Shame, as I backed the sub as well.

mailburner · 15-06-2021 1:25pm

eagle eye wrote: »

How would the ref stopping it due to injury mean it's a sub?

I figured it lost but when I saw this I thought my bet might be up

kneejerk · 15-06-2021 2:31pm

UFC rules state that a technical submission is a TKO. Hard luck on the bet

Mellor · 15-06-2021 3:40pm

eagle eye wrote: »

How would the ref stopping it due to injury mean it's a sub?

What would you call it?

eagle eye · 15-06-2021 5:31pm

Mellor wrote:

What would you call it?

A TKO.

Mellor · 16-06-2021 3:07am

eagle eye wrote: »

A TKO.

Why?
You know what TKO stands for right? If not, its Technically Knock out.

I'm a bit lost with your logic tbh.
You have an issue with an injury due to a submission hold being classed as a submission. But you are ok to call it a knock out - even though nobody was knocked out.

kneejerk wrote: »

UFC rules state that a technical submission is a TKO. Hard luck on the bet

Nope. The rules do not state that.

There's also no "UFC Rules".

eagle eye · 16-06-2021 6:41am

Mellor wrote:

Why? You know what TKO stands for right? If not, its Technically Knock out.

I'm a bit lost with your logic tbh. You have an issue with an injury due to a submission hold being classed as a submission. But you are ok to call it a knock out - even though nobody was knocked out.

I've no issue with anything.
There's no such thing as a technical submission, maybe there should be but it doesn't exist right now.
A tko is not a knock out, it's a term used for when a fighter is deemed unable or incapable of continuing to fight by the referee.

Mellor · 16-06-2021 1:08pm

eagle eye wrote: »

I've no issue with anything.

Your post above was “why would it be a submission”. Implying that it was crazy or somehow wrong.

Virtually your entire post is wrong.

A tko is not a knock out, it's a term used for when a fighter is deemed unable or incapable of continuing to fight by the referee.

A TKO is a knock-out. That’s a fact. It literally stands for technical knock out.
If you bet for a fighter to win by knock-out - TKO suffices for a winning bet.
A TKO goes down as a knock out on a fighter’s record.
There are multiple ways for a TKO to occur, but in general;

KO is a stoppage because fighter CANNOT defend themselves due to strikes.
TKO is a stoppage because fighter IS NOT defending themselves.

There’s also medical TKOs, not answering the bell, etc.

There's no such thing as a technical submission, maybe there should be but it doesn't exist right now.

You are wrong. It clearly exists.

Ok. Somebody is caught in a chokehold. They try to escape, they can’t. They are strangled and go unconscious.

What should the result of that fight be?

themandan6611 · 16-06-2021 9:02pm

I like the look of Casey O'Neill to win @ 13/10 this weekend with a few shillings on the KO @ 7/2 and a little more on the KO in rd2 12/1 & rd 3 18/1

themandan6611 · 19-06-2021 9:53pm

themandan6611 wrote: »

I like the look of Casey O'Neill to win @ 13/10 this weekend with a few shillings on the KO @ 7/2 and a little more on the KO in rd2 12/1 & rd 3 18/1

The girl is a killer

mailburner · 19-06-2021 10:14pm

ige pts 2s
williams ko 11/8
lima pts 8/5
spivac ko 4/5

not sure what bets to do but if they could all win that would be great

Senor Frog · 06-07-2021 2:04pm

Ryan hall by sub at 13/2 seems like good value to me .

Have backed it in a triple of :
Hall by sub @13/2.
Thompson by KO/TKO @10/3 .
McGregor to win @ evens.

64/1 ! Ya got to dream

Whelo79 · 06-07-2021 2:12pm

Senor Frog wrote: »

Ryan hall by sub at 13/2 seems like good value to me .

Have backed it in a triple of :
Hall by sub @13/2.
Thompson by KO/TKO @10/3 .
McGregor to win @ evens.

64/1 ! Ya got to dream

That's a crazy price for Hall. He's a threat every second when it comes to getting in a sub. Do the bookies think it's Uriajh Hall that's fighting?

simongurnick · 06-07-2021 3:29pm

Should wonder boy be that much of a favourite against Burns? Feel like Burns could ragdoll him a bit. Maybe I'm way off

tinpib · 06-07-2021 3:29pm

Ya, that Hall by sub at 13/2 is a no-brainer value bet alright.

Mellor · 06-07-2021 3:42pm

Whelo79 wrote: »

That's a crazy price for Hall. He's a threat every second when it comes to getting in a sub. Do the bookies think it's Uriajh Hall that's fighting?

I don’t understand it at all. The other guy is favourite for the sub.
I presume it’s been spat out of some algorithm that looks at past results.
Or they put lots of weight into pre-fight trash talk. Ilia Topuria was saying he’ll start in 50/50 and sub Hall (no you won’t mate). And that his coach subbed Hall’s coach in 40 seconds. Not really sure who that refers to or who he thinks Halls coach is.

Edit: seems like Felipe Costa, who Hall got his black belt from.

weemcd · 06-07-2021 4:02pm

Just had a nibble at Hall by sub there. At that price you'd be mad not to. Thanks for sharing lads.

cloudatlas · 26-07-2021 12:51pm

Who do you follow on youtube for tips and advice?

cloudatlas · 29-07-2021 1:31pm

Is Dan Hardy generally quite accurate?

weemcd · 29-07-2021 5:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117678257#Comment_117678257

I think he's very good at breaking down the fights any time I've seen him. He is probably obliged to be a bit 'too' neutral as he wants to promote the fights as much as possible... but he's definitely worth listening to.

smilerf · 01-08-2021 10:02pm

I think Cyril Gane is very overrated and Lewis is a great price for next week

mailburner · 01-08-2021 10:49pm

I think Gane will beat Lewis but I'm praying Lewis lands one. I don't think he's overrated though after the beating he gave Volkov who had Lewis beat also.

tinpib · 28-08-2021 4:31pm

Can't believe the price on Meerschaert tonight, 6.5 on B365. He has penty of losses but usually against high level opponents, but he is always dangerous, especially by sub. His opponent is on a winning streak, does have some losses by sub early in his career. Think Gerald is a great bet and I went by sub/ko/tko on b365 at 9.0 becuase I'm a greedy pig.

weemcd · 29-08-2021 9:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117815557#Comment_117815557

Brilliant shooting here, congratulations. Didn't have it myself unfortunately.

mailburner · 30-08-2021 12:04am

jake paul ko 4/5 I've gone big saver on paul pts 10/1

Woodley isn't a boxer simple as, has more chance than askren had however but it's a payday for him is all imo.

I wish they stopped this circus anyway.

tinpib · 04-09-2021 2:08pm

Absolutely blessed the Ireland/Azerbaijan game kicks off at 5pm instead of 745pm as it's an early UFC card tonight with first fight starting round 630pm/645pm.

In the main I fancy Brunson at 2.5, I think Till is over rated and you can make excuses for nearly all his UFC wins. Gastelum (Split), Wonderboy(missed weight), Cerone (by KO, but who hasn't KO'ed Cerrone at this stage) and then it's back to journeymen/nobodies for his first fights. He has lost against high quality fighters.

Father time catching up with Brunson but all his losses have been against elite level and he looked rejuvenated recently. So 6/4 is a great price.

Really looking forward to Tom Aspinall, hope we see another early KO. He is only 1.4 though.

I thought Molly McCann was improving but looking at her record now and her 3 fight streak was aganst some of the worst fighters around. It's a coin toss so went with her opponent at 1.91. Wouldn't mind seeing Molly win though, she has blond hair in her UFC photo, it suits her.

Paddy Pimblett finally gets his UFC shot, hope he wins, only 1.62 though.

My other big priced pics are Khali Rountree at 2.4 who again has lost to some elite level fighters, I don't think his opponent is elite.

And in the first fight I thought Dalcha looked value at 2.5, his opponents record isn't great.

tinpib · 18-09-2021 10:13am

14 fights tonight which is a lot. Skimmed the card and here are my big priced picks.

As always I automatically take the women's-fight-goes-to-points oddsbooster and there are 4 of them tonight, however I've been jinxed picking women's winners for the last ages.

Emily Whitmire pts 2.5, neither have great records

Pannie Kianzad pts 2.75, she seems to be improving, perhaps Pennington is on the way down.

Mandy Bohm pts 2.87, sadly Lipski just isn't good enough I think.

Erin Blanchfield pts 2.1

Cutelaba always tries to intimidate his opponents when they are announced to the crowd. The problem is that he has a bit of a glass jaw so it is hilarious when he gets KO'ed, which happens quite regualrly. Unfortuntely his opponent Devin Clark only has only 3 KO's out of 12 wins, but I still took the value of 2.3

Carlston Harris evens

However the biggest value of the night is Christos Giagos at 6.5, he has won 6 in UFC and of his 2 losses in UFC 1 was Charles Olivieira. His opponent lost his first UFC fight so is not infallible. Think 6.5 is a huge price, perhaps a whiff of hypetrain off yer man at those prices

mailburner · 09-10-2021 7:55pm

really like romanov sub at 7/4 most of his wins are by sub and his striking is average for this weight class

think he'll go straight for a takedown

paddy power

mailburner · 30-10-2021 5:22pm

Jan ko 6/4 pp

jan win

volkov pts

3/1

jan ko

aknalaev ko

volkov pts

13/1

pp

30-10-2021 5:31pm

Ankalaev via TKO/KO

Petr Yan via decision

Blachowicz via TKO/KO

13/1

mailburner · 30-10-2021 5:40pm

duraev sub 13/8

likes subs

mailburner · 06-11-2021 10:45pm

I'm hoping/thinking there's serious value in colby at 5/2

no doubt both have improved since they first met but it was dead even going into the last round first time out with

the scores after 4 39/37 38/38 37/39

points or ko if if it happens...not sure, he did wobble usman first time out but I think he'll be a little

more patient this time.

backing chandler also just for value at 5/1 for a ko, really just hope he wins tbh and if he gets past the first I think it'll be anyones fight.

rose also but torn between pts or ko maybe ko again at 4/1

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING