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US Presidential Election 2020

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    #1742
    duploelabs
    Registered Users Posts: 11,161 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    Trump's polling at his lowest level on Rasmussen for months currently. It's not that long ago he was 50%+ on there now 43-44%

    And they poll quite to the right


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    #1743
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Harris is probably second to O'Rourke as the most spectacular flop of the primary so far; though at least she came to the campaign with some bona fides and a good (if checkered) career as a prosecutor. She probably peaked way too early with her Bussing moment, though never really took off nationally either.


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    #1744
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,506 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    Trump's polling at his lowest level on Rasmussen for months currently. It's not that long ago he was 50%+ on there now 43-44%


    Is that polling or approval rating?


    A lot of people would not "approve" of Trump to date but would die before voting for a democrat or socialist.


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    #1745
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,144 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Here is a good article on what the Dems should do with their large number of canididates, ranked choice voting (RCV). Same as our STV means the most popular, actually gets the most votes at the end.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/27/democratic-presidential-candidates-ranked-choice-voting


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    #1746
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,019 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Warren's slide seems to the big story atm.

    Biden despite relentless online criticism from left and right still seems solid and his support with black voters still intact.

    Mayor Pete doing well but getting black voters to come to him looks really hard.

    Bernie also doing well, he is winning NH atm.

    Out of those 4 I'd be reluctant to rule out anyone but if I had to probably Pete as I don't see how you can get the dem nomination without the black vote.

    Very tight though.

    https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/11/26/elizabeth-warren-is-slipping-in-the-polls-as-nh-primary-looms/


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    #1747
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    As expected this late Bloombergs campaign has got off with the momentum of a wet firework. Polling at 2-3% on CNN, SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac and Politico


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    #1748
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,047 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Bloomberg hasn't started yet though, he has just launched a 37million dollar and campaign now hasn't he? Incredible money

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #1749
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 19,067 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    StringerBell wrote: »
    Bloomberg hasn't started yet though, he has just launched a 37million dollar and campaign now hasn't he? Incredible money

    probably less money than he stands to lose if Warren introduces the "wealth" tax


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    #1750
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,047 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    everlast75 wrote: »
    probably less money than he stands to lose if Warren introduces the "wealth" tax

    I would imagine so, but she hasn't a hope of getting that through congress either tbf.

    I think he has already with that one but outspent herself, biden, and Sanders on as buys? Pros and cons to it from his point of view but I'd wait until he's been in the race a few weeks to pass judgement on how it's going to go for him.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #1751
    everlast75
    Registered Users Posts: 19,067 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    I was just thinking, in relation to Bloomberg, Trump and his supporters can hardly lay a glove on him. Allegations like the following can't work

    1) He's rich and trying to run the Country like a company - Trump bragged about how much he is worth constantly on the trail and said as he was a business man, he knew how to make the Country prosperous again
    2) Stop and frisk means he is a racist - Trump has the travel ban, among many many other things in that closet
    3) He is not a politician - Trump prided himself on that.


    In what way is Bloomberg not the much better version than Trump?


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    #1752
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,643 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    It pains me to say anything positive as regards Bloomberg but he is a really big name and I think he would beat Trump.
    He is very level headed too and wouldn't be baited into a position which would make him look bad.
    He is an old man though and he won't excite young voters and with the tendency of Democratic voters to avoid the polls if they don't have somebody that excites them its possible Trump still wins. I still think he'd get enough votes between the Trump haters and old school democrats to win.


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    #1753
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users Posts: 11,844 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    everlast75 wrote: »
    I was just thinking, in relation to Bloomberg, Trump and his supporters can hardly lay a glove on him. Allegations like the following can't work

    1) He's rich and trying to run the Country like a company - Trump bragged about how much he is worth constantly on the trail and said as he was a business man, he knew how to make the Country prosperous again
    2) Stop and frisk means he is a racist - Trump has the travel ban, among many many other things in that closet
    3) He is not a politician - Trump prided himself on that.


    In what way is Bloomberg not the much better version than Trump?

    The problem is Republicans love playing the "tu quoque" card.


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    #1754
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Politics is like sport in the US. If Trump was a Democrat majority of his current base would not vote for him. On the flip side if Hillary Clinton changed absolutely nothing about herself or her policies but was Republican she would have rabid right wing following.

    Bill Clinton was most fiscally conservative president this past 100 years yet absolutely hated by those that preached fiscal conservatism on a daily basis.

    If Bloomberg ran as a Republican candidate in 2024 he likely would get big following. Running as a Dem makes him public enemy.
    StringerBell wrote: »
    Bloomberg hasn't started yet though, he has just launched a 37million dollar and campaign now hasn't he? Incredible money

    You would expect a bit of a bump upon entering race though and it's less than Beto got.

    He has money but its time that's massively against him, even making last debate stage will be struggle regardless how much he throws at this thing.

    Dem voters already seem happy enough with the choices available last month so most probably have their minds made up and weren't yearning for another high profile candidate this late in the day https://mobile.twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/1187080676270583808?s=20


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    #1755
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,019 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/us/politics/kamala-harris-2020.html

    Pretty long examination of the Harris campaign which is doomed despite all the hype.


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    #1756
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/us/politics/kamala-harris-2020.html

    Pretty long examination of the Harris campaign which is doomed despite all the hype.

    In fairness, the hype died very quickly after the Bussing riposte at that first debate. Her campaign has been moribund for months now and haven't seen any sense of enough support to suggest hype in the conventional sense


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    #1757
    Hande hoche!
    Registered Users Posts: 7,471 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    With regards Bloomberg there a number of theories. One is that he is just doing it to get a position in a Democrat administration. Another more tin foily one is that he is doing it to skirt campaign donation restrictions.


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    #1758
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,351 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Kamala Harris seems to have dropped out according to the Daily Beast.

    The biggest name to go yet, there's a good few minnows who could follow her lead

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/03/kamala-harris-drops-out-out-of-presidential-race-074902


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    #1759
    Hande hoche!
    Registered Users Posts: 7,471 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    Imagine that Brooker is not far behind her. Gabbard and her supporters will be happy to have outlasted her.


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    #1760
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,842 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I know it is make or break time as regards decisions to bring campaigns forward into 2020, but I think there's more to these exits, I have a strong feeling Hillary is coming back and may wait until some way into the primaries, and I think a few candidates have been tipped off.

    Lets face it, she could wake up and decide to walk onto the floor of the convention in Milwaukee in July and be selected by acclamation. A ticket of herself and Mayor Pete would pose interesting questions.


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    #1761
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,144 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Acclaimed by whom? Most delegates will be there mandated to support a candidate who toiled for the last 2 years. Not a chance, dreamland.
    More need to take a realistic look now and not waste both political and economic capital. Some may feel however, there best bet is to take some delegates to the convention floor if no clear candidate has emerged. They'll have serious bargaining power, if that's the case.


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    #1762
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,079 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Not a chance that Hilary Clinton comes back - even if she did , I doubt she'd get the votes..

    Everyone now knows how toxic she is - People picked Trump over her!!!!

    I wonder if Harris dropping out early rather than fighting a few rounds of Primaries is maybe tied to her making a deal with Biden for a VP slot.

    A Biden/Harris ticket could be an interesting one.


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    #1763
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,047 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Harris can and likely will come again, she did the right thing now dropping out though and I do think a few more should follow quickly but I would like to see how Booker does in some of the primaries. There is a lot of talk that his ground organisation and work being done locally in the first few primary areas is very good so if he can pick up some steam there who knows. I don't think he will take the nomination but the likes of Obama, Clinton etc were further back at this point and came through strong to sweep the nomination.

    Polling, especially national polling isn't really important right now, other than getting them on the debate stage.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #1764
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,643 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    If Booker could get the nomination he'd beat Trump.


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    #1765
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    eagle eye wrote: »
    If Booker could get the nomination he'd beat Trump.

    No way a vegan would win the American Presidency IMO; given the hysteria the GOP have already drummed up over lies made about the Green New Deal, you could bet your bottom dollar the attack ads would emphasise Booker coming after the steaks of ordinary Americans.


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    #1766
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,144 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Oh, so that's the problem with Schiff.


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    #1767
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,158 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    I know it is make or break time as regards decisions to bring campaigns forward into 2020, but I think there's more to these exits, I have a strong feeling Hillary is coming back and may wait until some way into the primaries, and I think a few candidates have been tipped off.

    Lets face it, she could wake up and decide to walk onto the floor of the convention in Milwaukee in July and be selected by acclamation. A ticket of herself and Mayor Pete would pose interesting questions.

    So I agree with that first part - she’s back doing public appearances and the book launch is a way to test the waters with regards to her brand recognition and popularity. If the winds look favourable, she’ll run.

    But she’s utterly toxic and I struggle to believe she’ll be embraced by a majority of the party. The Democrat party power structure will also be at pains not to influence or manipulate the process the way they did four years ago as AOC and the new wave elected last year exposed all of that nonsense and it’s a really bad look.

    Hillary has no path, she doesn’t accept that but I believe enough people around the Democrat party do. Bloomberg is going to get motoring over the next couple of weeks and start to shift this thing. He has excellent social positions, is a safe pair of hands economically and is a robust candidate due to his wealth, experience and independence - i.e. the simple type of attacks that worked against Hillary (and would work again!) aren’t available to Trump.


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    #1768
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,158 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    eagle eye wrote: »
    If Booker could get the nomination he'd beat Trump.

    Not a hope. His personal life will be ripped to shreds.


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    #1769
    Hande hoche!
    Registered Users Posts: 7,471 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    eagle eye wrote: »
    If Booker could get the nomination he'd beat Trump.

    Would give him very poor odds. As said the veganism plus elements of his private life would probably scupper him.


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    #1770
    Ihatewhahabies
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭Ihatewhahabies


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    I know it is make or break time as regards decisions to bring campaigns forward into 2020, but I think there's more to these exits, I have a strong feeling Hillary is coming back and may wait until some way into the primaries, and I think a few candidates have been tipped off.

    Lets face it, she could wake up and decide to walk onto the floor of the convention in Milwaukee in July and be selected by acclamation. A ticket of herself and Mayor Pete would pose interesting questions.

    I hope not but if it happens there will be a lot of entertainment especially if Barr decides to start prosecuting people (who were involved with the coup against Trump) in particular Coomey, Page, Strzok, Brennan, and clapper (if there is a benevolent God). Then it will truly be a blood sport.

    Bring it on Hilary.

    Either way I am happy as it is hard to feel sympathy for Trump et al when they are pursuing coups against at least ten countries at the moment. Live by the sword die by...


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    #1771
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,351 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Ihatewhahabies wrote: »
    I hope not but if it happens there will be a lot of entertainment especially if Barr decides to start prosecuting people (who were involved with the coup against Trump) in particular Coomey, Page, Strzok, Brennan, and clapper (if there is a benevolent God). Then it will truly be a blood sport.

    Bring it on Hilary.

    Either way I am happy as it is hard to feel sympathy for Trump et al when they are pursuing coups against at least ten countries at the moment. Live by the sword die by...
    Anyone who committed a crime should be made to face justice, regardless of which "side of the aisle" they are on.

    If the US starts applying the law on a partisan basis then the future for the Republic is quite grim.


This discussion has been closed.
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